Forget preseason NFL, baseball still the better bet

All Michael Fulmer does is win every time out.

LAS VEGAS -- It sure was awesome seeing those NFL uniforms on the field for the first time over the weekend and the Rams back in Los Angeles.

There’s no denying the power pro football has over most of us, and seeing all those odds on the board made any of the games a major attraction at Vegas sportsbooks.

People just love betting football, but let’s be careful not to forget about baseball where the games are meaningful and just starting to get intense with only seven weeks to go until the postseason begins.

Even with the MLB teams that are out of contention there are still a few starting pitchers – such as Cincinnati’s Dan Straily (+10.7 units) – that are dealing as if they’re in a pennant race.

The sportsbooks have been waiting for the preseason to start to take away some of their daily risk on baseball. The more you bet from your bankroll on preseason games where there is a 20-cent split on the spread, fixed odds on parlay pay charts and choosing sides that are featuring second and third strong players deciding your fate, the more the books love it. They want baseball risk to be limited with its 10-cent lines, true parlay payouts and hot pitchers.

Don’t let the books off the hook just yet. Keep firing away in MLB action. I have friends who love betting the preseason and say they do well with it because of the QB rotations and coaching tendencies.

In the first week of action it looked like a bunch of randomness with exception to Denver’s sick defense shutting out the Bears, 22-0, and Mike Zimmer’s Vikings winning again in the preseason to make him 9-1 in exhibitions as a head coach.

With baseball we’ve got some pitchers that get after it every game and have been piling up lots of money for bettors that have simply been riding them each time out.

Baltimore’s Chris Tillman doesn’t have the metrics to be considered for the AL Cy Young Award, but all the guy does is win and he’s carried the Orioles on his back all year. The O’s have won 20 of his 25 starts for +15.6 units of profit and because he doesn’t have the metrics like a Clayton Kershaw or Cole Hamels, he’s relatively cheap each time out. No starter has earned more money than him.

Detroit has won 16 of Michael Fulmer’s 19 starts and he has the metrics to compare with the best, but yet he’s still underpriced by about 25 cents each time out. His pitcher rating the sportsbooks have been using on him is similar to Tampa Bay’s Drew Smyly. If you’ve been betting Fulmer every time out you’re up +15.4 units.

Read More Here....Gaming Today

Are the Browns really the worst team in NFL?

Robert Griffin III is doing all the right things in camp.

Are the Cleveland Browns really the worst team in the NFL?

If looking at odds board all along the Las Vegas strip, the answer is yes. And there's lots of recent history to support the notion.

The Browns haven't had a winning record since 2007 (10-6) and they haven't made the playoffs since losing a Wild Card game in 2002. They come off an awful 3-13 season finishing dead last in the AFC North for the fifth consecutive year.

So it's not hard to understand why the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has them listed as the longest shot to win the Super Bowl at 200/1 -- double the next longest odds -- and also the lowest season win total at 4.5 (Over -155) -- the next lowest is Tennessee and San Francisco at 5.5 victories.

The crew at the CG Technology sport book hub office inside M Resort also don't have a high rating on the 2016 version of the Browns. They posted the first 16 weeks of spreads for every team in April and the Browns weren't favored in any of them. Not even one home game. The smallest spread placed upon them is a Week 16 game where the Chargers are 2-point road favorites.

CG has the Browns as their lowest rated team, just a point worse than Tennessee who are 3.5-point favorites in a Week 6 matchup in Nashville. If going by last year's awful numbers, the rating is hard to argue against as their average score was 17-27. They couldn't stop the run or pass on defense and their offense was almost as bad.

But action for Week 1 has actually come in on the Browns.

"One of the biggest moves we've had in Week 1 has seen the Browns drop from +8.5 to +6.5 at Philadelphia," said CG Technology's VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "But I don't think those wagers on the Browns were necessarily because of bettors liking them as much as they don't like the Eagles. There's a lot of anti-Eagles sentiment with smart money. One (respected) bettor bet against the Eagles in 13 of their 16 games we have have posted. And it doesn't just stop there with weekly games.

Read More Here......VegasInsider.com

Head Coach NFL pre-season records heading into 2016

Chip Kelly has gone 10-2 to the OVER in his 12 pre-season games as head coach.

PRESEASON RECORDS (1999-2015)

Team-Coach SU ATS O/U Arizona – Bruce Arians 6-6 7-4-1 6-6 Atlanta – Dan Quinn 2-2 2-2 3-1 Baltimore - John Harbaugh 20-12 19-13 17-15 Buffalo – Rex Ryan 13-15 13-15 19-9 Carolina - Ron Rivera 11-9 11-9 10-10 Chicago – John Fox 31-25 27-28-1 27-28-1 Cincinnati - Marvin Lewis 28-25 28-24-1 26-27 Cleveland – Hue Jackson 0-4 0-4 2-2 Dallas - Jason Garrett 8-13 6-14-1 8-12-1 Denver – Gary Kubiak 22-14 22-12-2 23-11-2 Detroit - Jim Caldwell 8-12 10-1 9-11 Green Bay - Mike McCarthy 20-20 20-20 26-14 Houston – Bill O’Brien 4-4 4-4 1-7 Indianapolis – Chuck Pagano 5-11 7-9 6-9 Jacksonville – Gus Bradley 4-8 6-6 3-9 Kansas City - Andy Reid* 32-36 30-34-4 39-27-2 Los Angeles - Jeff Fisher 38-42 37-41-2 38-28 Miami - Adam Gase - - - Minnesota – Mike Zimmer 8-1 7-2 4-5 New England - Bill Belichick* 46-39 42-36-7 31-33-1 New Orleans – Sean Payton 19-18 21-16 19-15-3 New York Giants - Ben McAdoo - - - New York Jets – Todd Bowles 3-1 3-1 2-2 Oakland – Jack Del Rio 22-18 21-17-2 22-18 Philadelphia - Doug Pederson - - - Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin 21-17 16-21-1 15-22-1 San Diego – Mike McCoy 5-7 7-4-1 5-7 San Francisco – Chip Kelly 7-5 7-5 10-2 Seattle - Pete Carroll* 25-16 27-13-1 17-11 Tampa Bay - Dirk Koetter - - - Tennessee - Mike Mularkey 6-6 7-5 5-6-1 Washington - Jay Gruden 6-2 5-3 2-6

- VegasInsider.com

Las Vegas bettors let down with Hall of Fame Game cancellation

Did they think the players wouldn't notice? Get some real grass, please.

The NFL sure sputtered out of the gate Sunday by cancelling their Hall of Fame Game much to the dismay of several bettors in Las Vegas who were eagerly waiting any kind of sign football season was upon us.

Preseason or not, bettors were ready and the books all across town were filling up for a 5 p.m. PT kickoff, but at 4 p.m., ESPN’s Chris Berman dropped the news of cancellation on the pre-game show in a tone that sounded as if someone had passed. For football fans everywhere, that tone was kind of appropriate.

“When people in the book started hearing about the news of the field conditions causing the game to be cancelled, they were like, ‘wait, what?,’” said Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. “There was a little confusion, some disbelief because this kind of thing doesn’t happen very often. Overall there was just some disappointment among the crowd.”

The Colts had been bet up from a pick ‘em to -3.5 against the Packers at a few books with the total bet down from 36.5 to 34, and the action, albeit smaller wagers because of lower limits, was solid at the SuperBook. All bets on the game were refunded.

“We had just as much wagered on it as the top baseball games of the day,” said Kornegay, who noted the alternative sports viewing at the time on MLB-TV with the Red Sox at Dodger Stadium also couldn’t be seen because of the local black out of Dodgers games, among the six teams MLB considers Las Vegas’ home teams.

Read More Here....Gaming Today

Watkins Glen Betting Notes: 2016 Cheez-It 355

Tony Stewart might be best value on odds board in Las Vegas.

Carl Edwards won the pole Saturday at Watkins Glen International, and track history suggests he’s a strong contender to win Sunday’s Cheez-It 355, the second and final race this season on a road course.

Edwards also won the pole at Sonoma Raceway’s road course in June, then finished fourth.

Edwards, listed at 8-1 odds, was already a strong contender based on his own history on the seven-turn, 2.45-mile road course at which he has an 8.4 average finish in 11 starts. His best finish was third in 2009, but his consistency has been incredible with eight top-10 finishes.

Track history shows the pole winner has won nine times in 33 Cup races. Las Vegan Kyle Busch was the last to do it in 2008.

Starting from the top five has produced 21 of the 33 winners, which makes those starting behind Edwards worthy of a strong look at the betting window. Kyle Larson (30-1) starts second, followed by Sonoma winner Tony Stewart (18-1), Matt Kenseth (30-1) and race co-favorite Busch (6-1).

Among those, Busch is the driver to beat. He’s a two-time winner at Watkins Glen with a 10.5 average finish, and he practiced extremely well in both of Friday’s 85-minute sessions, with top-five speeds that included having the best 10-consecutive lap average.

STEWART ON A ROLL

When Stewart came back after missing the first eight races this season, he looked as if he was just going through the motions to close out his final season. He didn’t have any top-five finishes in his first seven races, but something clicked at Sonoma. He won his eighth career road race there and first victory anywhere since 2013.

The win gave him a career reboot, and he started looking like Stewart circa 2011 when he won the last of his three Cup titles. In his past four starts, he’s finished fifth at Kentucky, second at New Hampshire, 11th at Indianapolis and fifth last week at Pocono.

His five wins at Watkins Glen are a track record, and in four of them, he started within the top five. He’s the best value on the board at 18-1.

NEW SURFACE AND TIRE

Along with the track being repaved after last season’s race, there was a new Goodyear tire compound that never has been used in the series. It’s a much harder compound that barely wears out. Las Vegan Kurt Busch said during an interview halfway through the second practice Friday that he was still using the same set of tires that ran all 27 laps during the first session.

The effect will create all kinds of opportunities for teams to scrap four-tire changes during pit stops and gain a few seconds, and positions, by taking two tires while fueling up.

Read More Here........Las Vegas Review-Journal

Friday MLB Play of Day: Texas Rangers at Houton Astros - 8:10 pm ET

Dallas Keuchel has had a rough go of it lately, especially against Texas.

Lefties square off at Minute Maid Park

Martin Perez (7-7, 4.22 ERA) doesn't like the road too much and Texas has gone 5-12 in their last 17 games overall, but I like what I saw out of Perez in his last start that helped me forget his miserable previous four starts. He allowed only one run to KC in seven innings. Texas has now won 10 of his past 13 starts. 

The last time the Rangers (63-46) were in Texas in May, they swept. They won eight straight against the Astros until losing June 8. Overall, Texas is 9-1 against them in 2016. It's basically the differential between the Rangers being in first and the Astros 6.5 games back. One more note: the Rangers are 30-16 in the last 46 meetings at Minute Maid Park. 

Houston has lost its last three games started by Dallas Keuchel (6-11, 4.92), including his last start at Detroit where he gave up seven runs. Houston (56-52) is 2-8 in their last 10 and and have lost its last three. Oh yeah, Keuchel has lost all three starts against Texas this year. 

Let's go with the Rangers to win in a high scoring game. The top play here is Texas (+156) and a secondary play is on the OVER (8.5).

Updated Las Vegas World Series odds to win (8/3/16)

Detroit Tigers are rolling and look like decent value at 20/1 odds to win World Series.

Below is a list of the current future odds to win the 2016 World Series. The Chicago Cubs are the current favorites to win the 2016 World Series (7/2) at William Hill’s 106 Nevada Sports Books and on the Mobile Sports app.

   

@WILLIAMHILLUS ODDS TO WIN 2016 WORLD SERIES	Opening Odds (11/3/15)	Odds on (6/28/16)	Current odds (8/3/16)
NEW YORK METS	10/1	18/1	22/1
CHICAGO CUBS	10/1	+280	7/2
KANSAS CITY ROYALS	10/1	22/1	100/1
LOS ANGELES DODGERS	10/1	15/1	10/1
TORONTO BLUE JAYS	10/1	18/1	17/2
ST LOUIS CARDINALS	12/1	16/1	20/1
HOUSTON ASTROS	12/1	20/1	20/1
PITTSBURGH PIRATES	12/1	75/1	100/1
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS	12/1	5/1	5/1
TEXAS RANGERS	12/1	5/1	11/2
WASHINGTON NATIONALS	12/1	8/1	15/2
NEW YORK YANKEES	15/1	70/1	500/1
LOS ANGELES ANGELS	25/1	300/1	500/1
BOSTON RED SOX	25/1	12/1	12/1
SEATTLE MARINERS	25/1	28/1	75/1
MINNESOTA TWINS	25/1	2500/1	5000/1
CLEVELAND INDIANS	25/1	10/1	11/2
BALTIMORE ORIOLES	25/1	12/1	15/1
DETROIT TIGERS	25/1	30/1	20/1
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS	40/1	250/1	1500/1
TAMPA BAY RAYS	40/1	250/1	5000/1
CHICAGO WHITE SOX	40/1	28/1	125/1
CINCINNATI REDS	50/1	2500/1	5000/1
SAN DIEGO PADRES	50/1	1500/1	5000/1
OAKLAND ATHLETICS	50/1	500/1	1500/1
MIAMI MARLINS	75/1	30/1	18/1
MILWAUKEE BREWERS	75/1	1000/1	3000/1
ATLANTA BRAVES	100/1	5000/1	9999/1
COLORADO ROCKIES	150/1	75/1	100/1
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES	250/1	300/1	500/1