Forget preseason NFL, baseball still the better bet

All Michael Fulmer does is win every time out.

LAS VEGAS -- It sure was awesome seeing those NFL uniforms on the field for the first time over the weekend and the Rams back in Los Angeles.

There’s no denying the power pro football has over most of us, and seeing all those odds on the board made any of the games a major attraction at Vegas sportsbooks.

People just love betting football, but let’s be careful not to forget about baseball where the games are meaningful and just starting to get intense with only seven weeks to go until the postseason begins.

Even with the MLB teams that are out of contention there are still a few starting pitchers – such as Cincinnati’s Dan Straily (+10.7 units) – that are dealing as if they’re in a pennant race.

The sportsbooks have been waiting for the preseason to start to take away some of their daily risk on baseball. The more you bet from your bankroll on preseason games where there is a 20-cent split on the spread, fixed odds on parlay pay charts and choosing sides that are featuring second and third strong players deciding your fate, the more the books love it. They want baseball risk to be limited with its 10-cent lines, true parlay payouts and hot pitchers.

Don’t let the books off the hook just yet. Keep firing away in MLB action. I have friends who love betting the preseason and say they do well with it because of the QB rotations and coaching tendencies.

In the first week of action it looked like a bunch of randomness with exception to Denver’s sick defense shutting out the Bears, 22-0, and Mike Zimmer’s Vikings winning again in the preseason to make him 9-1 in exhibitions as a head coach.

With baseball we’ve got some pitchers that get after it every game and have been piling up lots of money for bettors that have simply been riding them each time out.

Baltimore’s Chris Tillman doesn’t have the metrics to be considered for the AL Cy Young Award, but all the guy does is win and he’s carried the Orioles on his back all year. The O’s have won 20 of his 25 starts for +15.6 units of profit and because he doesn’t have the metrics like a Clayton Kershaw or Cole Hamels, he’s relatively cheap each time out. No starter has earned more money than him.

Detroit has won 16 of Michael Fulmer’s 19 starts and he has the metrics to compare with the best, but yet he’s still underpriced by about 25 cents each time out. His pitcher rating the sportsbooks have been using on him is similar to Tampa Bay’s Drew Smyly. If you’ve been betting Fulmer every time out you’re up +15.4 units.

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Pro Football Notes From Las Vegas Heading Into Final Week of Pre-Season

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

We head into the final week of pre-season where bettors should play with extreme caution as most of the starters are expected to play only a few series, if at all, in what will be of a final audition for the final 75 players on each roster. 22 of those players will be cut and this is their last chance to make an impression on their coaching staff.

The Las Vegas sports books have been loving the pre-season because of all the uncertainties involved in every game. The low spreads on every game have enticed much of the small money on parlays to include the prominent teams as if this were the regular season and the line offered value as was the case with the Patriots home game against St. Louis last week where the Rams won as a short dog.

Although the big pay-day and with large handle for the sports books comes with the regular season, the consistent win with little risk during pre-season has been a nice relief for the books in August after dredging through a month and a half of only baseball where the daily win-loss is a crap shoot.

If looking for any type of trend for the final week of pre-season, you’ll be hard pressed to find a good one. Last year the favorites went 8-8 in the final week with the only trend standing out being the home underdogs going 2-0. Knowing that the second and third stringers are going to get much of the work, the quarterbacks that have looked the best throughout training camp and pre-season look to be the way to go. Cleveland with Seneca Wallace running the show shouldn’t disappoint, same with Marc Bulger in Baltimore. Conversely, look to pick on teams where the back-up has looked bad like Brady Quinn in Denver who can’t seem to find any confidence or rhythm making Eric Mangini looking like man-genius again for dumping Quinn in Cleveland.

Speaking of Cleveland and Mangini, I’m pleasantly surprised about the play of Jake Delhomme during the pre-season. We were all so down on him the last two seasons in Carolina with his bundles of interceptions that took a good Panthers team out of many games, but Delhomme has been the perfect example of just how important experience is. He doesn’t have the strongest arm or the swiftest feet, but what he lacks there he makes up for in smarts. His ability to read what opposing defenses are throwing at him and audible appropriately along the way should make Cleveland much better than last year; that, along with a much improved offensive line look to have the Browns solid contenders to go OVER the 5 ½ season win total posted in the sports books.

Through three pre-season games, Delhomme has completed 79% of his passes, two touchdowns, no interceptions and a QB rating of 110.5. Maybe more importantly through the games is that he has been sacked only once in 48 pass attempts. He’s got a nice back in Jerome Harrison to hand the ball off to, a nice bailout over the middle in former Patriots tight-end Ben Watson and the team has also featured the explosive Josh Cribbs more prominently in their first string offensive schemes. It also looks like the player the Browns got for Quinn from the Broncos, running-back Peyton Hillis, is going to be a nice third-down and goal line back that Delhomme has confidence in during passing situations.

The Browns have two winnable games right out of the gate to kick the season off as 2 ½-point underdogs at Tampa Bay and then a home game against the Chiefs where they‘ll be favored. They could conceivably be 2-0 by the time they start their tough division battles with Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh -- teams they combined to go 1-5 against last year. It may not yet be playoff time for the Browns, but there should be some good times in the Dawg Pound as their beloved team actually competes offensively with their opponents this season.

Washington Hurt-Skins
Donovan McNabb will not be playing this Thursday against the Cardinals in the Redskins final pre-season game and could possibly miss the opener against Dallas. Because of coach Mike Shanahan’s uncertainty over whether McNabb will be ready for the opener, he’s sitting back-up Rex Grossman out for the pre-season finale as well to endure that he’s have one healthy quarterback for Cowboys. John Beck and Richard Bartel will get all the snaps against the Cardinals.

Bradford Passes First Test as Starter
It’s only pre-season, and it was only against the lowly Patriots defense, but Sam Bradford put all his tools on display that made him the first overall draft pick during the Rams 36-35 win at Foxboro. He was sharp and precise giving everyone a look at what may be possible in the near future for the Rams.  

No O-Line in Big D
Maybe we shouldn’t get too excited, but the folks in Cowboy-land have got to feel a little worried about their offensive line woes during pre-season. Tony Romo has only been sacked five times in their four pre-season games, but seems to be pressured every time he goes back to pass resulting in hard knock downs. Someone has to light a fire under this team if they intend to play at home in the Super Bowl like many experts believe, but the Cowboys have the unfortunate disposition of having a quarterback and coach that don’t know how to light that fire.


Michael Jordan’s Underage Son Parties in Las Vegas 

Marcus Jordan’s bragging on Twitter last week about losing $50,000 at the Clubs and Lounges within a Las Vegas casino would have been just that -- simple bragging by a trust-fund kid, but when the fact that Marcus is only 20 years old and he’s tweeting pictures of himself inside these places that are only for those 21 over, then it becomes a problem.

The problem won’t affect the Jordan kid at all and it won‘t affect the relationship Michael Jordan has with the Vegas mega-resort company since he’s a high level VIP. Marcus may get some kind of stern talk from his father or maybe a little lesson on being discreet from his Central Florida basketball coach, but even that is likely to be minimal since it was Michael Jordan and Nike who paid for the school uniforms. The kid will likely be attempting to do the same thing again at some club, somewhere, until he eventually becomes of legal age.

The real problem will stem from the Nevada Gaming Control Board who will be investigating the situation where the casino will probably face fines, which will ultimately lead to more scrutiny among all areas of Las Vegas gaming because this matter has a higher profile case than the regular underage guy caught playing nickel machines.

So when you walk into a sports book as a 30 year old who looks closer to 40 than 20, don’t be surprised to be carded by the teller just as a precaution mandated by the casino. You better believe the NGCB will be proactive on the matter and have a few sting operations to incriminate others. What a perfect weekend for them to find tellers not carding either, the first week of the college and pro football seasons, one of the two busiest weeks of the year.

Realistically, if a 20 year old kid can go fight in America’s wars there should be no reason they can’t choose on their own to drink or gamble, but in Nevada, a rule is a rule, and is something to be abided by, and enforced by everyone who works within those casino walls.

Sam Bradford Impressive in First Rams Start, Patriots Look Troubled

Associated Press

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- Poised and precise, Sam Bradford made an impressive debut as a starting NFL quarterback. It may have earned him the No. 1 job in the regular-season opener.

The top pick in the NFL draft zipped passes between and over defenders, threw for two touchdowns then watched the second half from the sidelines as the St. Louis Rams beat the New England Patriots 36-35 on Josh Brown's 37-yard field goal on the last play Thursday night.

But will Bradford be back under center for the Rams first snap Sept. 12 against the Arizona Cardinals?

"We've got to look at the film," coach Steve Spagnuolo said. "I want to see how he handled things when there was pressure."

He seemed to do just fine.

Bradford completed his first six passes, finished 15-of-22 for 189 yards and was sacked just once. He rarely got flustered and quickly located open receivers.

"It was a blast out there tonight," he said. "I had fun. I was used to doing what I was doing -- moving the offense up and own the field."

The 2008 Heisman Trophy winner missed most of last season at Oklahoma with a shoulder injury and made his first start since last October. When training camp began, Spagnuolo gave the starting job to A.J. Feeley, but he was sidelined with a sprained right thumb and Bradford got his chance after struggling for two games as a backup.

"He was putting the ball on the money," Rams running back Steven Jackson said. "You can tell he really knows the offense. I'm really impressed with how far he's come in a short time."

Other than Tom Brady, who completed 18 of 22 passes for 273 yards, and rookie tight end Rob Gronkowski, who caught two of Brady's three touchdown passes, there was very little impressive about the Patriots (2-1).

St. Louis (2-1) led in time of possession, 43:46 to 16:14, and in offensive yards, 462-288. The Patriots gained more than 10 yards on just four of 11 series while the Rams went nine for 11. And only one of the Patriots possessions lasted more than five plays; the Rams had nine.

"We didn't do well on anything," New England coach Bill Belichick said.

The Patriots offense didn't get a first down until 3:10 remained in the first half and finished with 12. Their defense gave up 30.

"They were able to move the ball at will," safety James Sanders said. "It was demoralizing."

New Rams owner Stan Kroenke had a much different feeling. One day after the NFL approved him, he went into his team's locker room before the game.

"That was terrific," Spagnuolo said. "He stayed for the entire game -- late into the night."

The Patriots had rallied from a 27-14 deficit to a 35-27 lead on Brady's touchdown passes of 65 yards to Randy Moss and 20 yards to Gronkowski and Brian Hoyer's 5-yarder to Sam Aiken with 11:14 left after an interception by Brandon McGowan.

Keith Toston scored on a 2-yard run but an incomplete pass for a conversion left the Rams behind 35-33.

They got the ball back after a punt and kept shredding the defense. Quarterback Keith Null directed a 41-yard drive to the Patriots 19 and Brown won the game with his third field goal.
Bradford led scoring drives on three of his first four series.

He went 4 for 4 for 48 yards and a 5-yard touchdown pass to Michael Hoomanawanui on his first series. On his third possession, Bradford was 3 for 4 for 48 yards, setting up a 25-yard field goal by Brown for a 10-7 lead.

And on his fourth series, he hooked up with Hoomanawanui again for a 12-yard score and a 17-7 lead. Brown added a 45-yard field goal after Gronkowski's 14-yard touchdown catch, putting St. Louis ahead 20-14 at halftime.

Bradford "made some good throws," Patriots cornerback Leigh Bodden said, "but we didn't make a lot of plays to make him look bad."

Another Rams rookie quarterback, free agent Thaddeus Lewis from Duke, led a 15-play, 76-yard march on the first series of the third quarter. It lasted 9 minutes, 19 seconds and ended with a 20-yard scoring pass to Brandon Gibson.

The Patriots had grabbed the lead just 12 seconds into the game on a 97-yard kickoff return by Brandon Tate.

Then Bradford took the field.

"Before I went out there, I took a deep breath and said, 'Do what you know how to do,' " he said.

And that's what he did.

Notes: Donnie Avery, who led Rams receivers with 47 catches last year, "probably has a significant knee injury," Spagnuolo said. Avery was hurt late in the first half when he jumped and landed after a long pass to him fell incomplete. ... The Patriots rushed for just 28 yards on 11 carries. Two Rams runners, Toston with 41 yards and Kenneth Darby with 35, outgained them. ... Wes Welker, playing for the second straight week after major knee surgery in February, had two catches for 41 yards for the Patriots.