Cardinals-Panthers action dead, Patriots bet at 10-to-1 ratio

Bettors loving the Patriots this week despite inflated number.

LAS VEGAS -- When the AFC and NFC Championship Game lines were both posted with 3's in Las Vegas on Sunday, one game looked out of whack with a road favorite while the other looked solid. Many observers thought it would the Panthers side that would attract the most action, but that hasn't been the case.

"It's been a dead game for us," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne who has kept Carolina -3 all week.

Osborne said public parlay money has favored Carolina as expected, but the game he's been keeping his eye on the most is the Patriots -3 at Denver.

"I thought the game that we'd be moving first would be the Panthers, but the way the action is going so far I may have to go to -3.5 with the Patriots."

The number '3' is the most key number in the NFL, so it'll take some heavy one-sided action to move off the number, but Osborne can see it happening. "Right now, I'm about a 25 percent towards our threshold at the number before moving to 3.5."

Osborne says he takes about four times the limit at -3 than he does for regular numbers before moving off it. His chain of sports books are the only ones in the city that use flat numbers exclusively.

On Friday, the South Point was the only sports book in town with the Patriots at 3-flat. Those that like the Patriots know where to go so it might not be too long before Osborne hits his threshold forcing a number change.

Read More Here...VegasInsider.com

2016 AFC Championship Game: Patriots -3 (EV) at Broncos

Tom Brady LOVES pressure; faces No. 1 defense with No. 1 sack total 

3:05 pm ET - TV: CBS
New England (13-4, 8-7-2 ATS) at Denver (13-4, 8-8-1 ATS)
Line: New England -3 (-120), 44

LAS VEGAS -- Let’s just start by saying that ratings-wise, the Broncos should be favored. That’s simply the approach from an oddsmaker position where we don’t believe the Patriots are 6-points better than Denver, and that’s what the number is telling us if taking out the 3-points for Denver’s home field.

However, bookmakers need to factor in public perception. The additional rating points added to New England for the AFC Championship Game are because of the public, which always believes what it saw last.

The books have to forecast who is going to be bet the most and go against the oddsmaker position, especially in games with such high volume. Sharp money pales in comparison to the amount Joe Public throws down on these games. And so far the books look to be right — 75 percent of bets have come in on the Pats -3.

But that doesn’t mean we have to follow the herd at the bet windows. You’re looking at nearly 5-points of value by taking the Broncos at home, which is one of the best home field advantages in NFL history. The home field for Denver has been so good through the years that the great Tom Brady is only 2-6 when playing in the Rockies, and his two wins came against third-stringer Danny Kanell and Tim Tebow.

To show the Patriots' huge ratings increase after last week, let’s take a look at a few recent games with similar spreads.

Read More Here (free pick).....TheLinemakers.com

Saturday NFL Divisional Playoff Selections

Two-team teasers have killed for the sports books in divisional round.

LAS VEGAS — The divisional playoff round is usually when we see teams play to their full power rating capabilities and when two-team, 6-point teasers offer value given how close some of these games are relative to the spread.

Last year, all sides (not including totals) between the eight teams participating in the divisional round went 7-1 on teasers. You could have bet a teaser on both sides of three games and cashed. We don’t recommend that strategy, but it’s a great example of how close the spreads are to the final results in this round. In the two years prior, the teaser sides went a combined 12-4 making it 19-5 over the past three seasons in the divisional round.

MORE: Full Sunday picks from Vegas | NFL live odds page

My partner Kenny White and I have plays on many of the regular point spreads and totals for all four games this weekend, but we emphasize taking advantage of what has continually been a losing proposition for sports books in this round where getting six points is a proven winner for bettors. If it’s a proposition the books regularly lose on, why not keep taking advantage? To make it fair for the books, they probably should be charging -150 on a 6-point two-team teaser in this round.

Here’s a look at our selections from both of Saturday’s games, and be sure to check out our Sunday selections as well.

Read More Here.....TheLinemakers.com

NFL Week 2 Selections: Patriots to handle Buffalo

Patriots should take care of business on Sunday at Buffalo.

Line: New England -1, Total: 45

The road team in this rivalry has been covering consistently over the past decade at a 14-6 ATS clip. The Bills’ 27-14 home victory as 1-point dogs over the Colts was impressive, but can they get as hyped this week as they were for that game? This looks like a let-down spot for Buffalo after beating the co-favorites to win the AFC. This week they play the other AFC co-favorite, the Patriots. It would be quite a statement for Buffalo to take both teams out in the first two weeks, but it’s hard to see that happening.

The price is cheap on the world champs, who have been at their best against winning teams, with a 10-3 ATS record over the past 13 instances. A case could easily be made for the Patriots to be 3-point favorites here. Pats -1.

Predicted score: Patriots 27-16

Read More Predictions Here....TheLinemakers.com

Steelers/Patriots Thursday night selection

Tom Brady likes to show off at home vs. good offenses. 

The Patriots have dominated this series, and the Pats-to-OVER correlation has been a strong one, cashing in six of the last 11 meetings. The OVER by itself has cashed in eight of the last 10.

These trends mirror the Patriots' tendencies when playing at home against good offenses. In the past two seasons, the Pats are 6-0 ATS at home when the total is 49.5 or higher. They’ve gone 5-0-1 to the OVER in those games. If you had blindly bet the Patriots/OVER parlay at 13-to-5 odds every week for the past four seasons, you would have cashed 31 times.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has covered only once in its last nine September games, but they should be respected in this spot, and laying a touchdown on Thursday night gives us pause.

Read More Here for free PITT/NE selection...........The Sporting News

Video: Roberts talks NFL Week 1 plays

Tom Brady in for Week 1 action vs Steelers, Patriots -6.5 in Vegas

Tom Brady worth 6-to-7 points to the betting number in Las Vegas.

Tom Brady has beaten the NFL in the Deflategate court case, with U.S. District Court Judge Richard Berman nullifying the league's four-game suspension Thursday.

Berman announced his decision after the sides failed to reach a settlement after several weeks of talks.

Brady's suspension originally was upheld by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell in July after an appeal. Brady, meanwhile, repeatedly had disputed the league's ruling that he and Patriots equipment staff colluded to deflate footballs before New
England's 45-7 victory over Indianapolis in last season's AFC Championship Game.

The effect of the decision in Las Vegas means that sports books can use their full rating on the Patriots. William Hill sports books were the first to repost the Sept. 10 Steelers/Patriots game with New England at -6.5 and a total at 51. Only a few books had numbers posted this week as they awaited the ruling, but those that did were dealing -3 or -3.5, which was kind of a halfway move. If Brady was going to be out for this contest, the game would have probably been pick 'em.

From William Hill:
With the breaking news of Tom Brady’s four game suspension being nullified, William Hill US has adjusted the New England Patriots odds for their Week 1 matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Patriots’ odds to win Super Bowl 50.

Prior to Thursday’s morning news that Tom Brady would be eligible to play in the NFL Regular Season opener on September 10th, William Hill US had the New England Patriots as a 3 point favorite against the Steelers. The Patriots are now a 6.5 point favorite at the 104 William Hill Sports Books in Nevada and on the William Hill Mobile Sports app. The total for next Thursday night’s matchup also moved from 48.5 (OVER -110/UNDER -110) points to 51 points (OVER -110/UNDER -110).

As of 7:00AM PST, 81% of the total dollars wagered and 49% of the tickets on the game’s point spread had been on the Patriots side. William Hill US had originally opened the Patriots as a 6 point favorite back on May 1st. In early August, the point spread had dropped as far as 2.5.

The odds for the Patriots to win Super Bowl 50 have been adjusted from 12/1 to 9/1. The Patriots originally opened at 6/1 to repeat as champions this season and have received 6% of the total dollars placed on teams
to win Super Bowl 50.

More from William Hill:
· William Hill US has updated the New England Patriots Regular Season Win Total this morning from 10 (OVER -155/UNDER +135) to 10.5 (OVER -115/UNDER-105). The win total originally opened in May at 10 (OVER -110/UNDER -110).

· Tom Brady’s odds in the prop MOST REGULAR SEASON PASSING YARDS have now moved from 40/1 to 15/1. Andrew Luck continues to be the favorite at 3/1. The prop (containing 18 Quarterbacks and a Field option) is available for wagering at the 104 William Hill Nevada Sports Books and on the Mobile Sports app.

· The Patriots are currently the favorite in the AFC to win the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP (+325) and return to the Super Bowl. The Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos are each 7/2 to win the AFC in 2015-16.

· The Patriots are a heavy favorite to win the AFC EAST in 2015-16 at -250. Other AFC EAST DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES: Dolphins 3/1, Bills 13/2, Jets 14/1.

 

Fantasy Football: Lynch, Moss Trades Open Many Fantasy Doors

By Micah Roberts
Las Vegas Review-Journal

The trades this week involving Randy Moss and Marshawn Lynch will have ripple effects -- of a positive nature -- for many fantasy owners.

The Bills sending Lynch to Seattle and the Patriots shipping Moss to Minnesota is a win-win for everyone involved. The only doubters of the claim might be the owners of Justin Forsett and Bernard Berrian. However, over the first four weeks of play, it's apparent neither of those players was going to make much of an impact, which is why the teams made the trades.

The effect Lynch's trade will have goes much further than the impact he'll have on Seattle. Most owners picked up Lynch after the Bills showcased him as the feature back for prospective teams, and Seattle finally made the deal after speculation had him going to Green Bay. The deal opens things up in a crowded Bills backfield for C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson.

Jackson is expected to get the bulk of Buffalo's carries, with Spiller taking on a larger role than seen so far. This is exceptional news for those who drafted Spiller early thinking his great preseason and speed would make him this year's breakthrough rookie running back. With Lynch gone, Spiller could still live up to some of those expectations. The trade also allows Jackson to be a quality No. 3 fantasy back on a weekly basis.

As for Lynch in Seattle, he is teamed with Forsett, his college teammate at California. He's got a better offensive line in Seattle than in Buffalo, and his hard running between the tackles is sure to win over coach Pete Carroll, who wasn't happy with his 27th-ranked rushing attack. Forsett will go back to his role as a relief back and see action in passing situations.

Fantasy owners of Moss and all the Vikings can rejoice because a happy Moss makes Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin better. Favre becomes a viable fantasy starter now that he has the option of throwing downfield, something Berrian couldn't provide as a fill-in for injured Sidney Rice. Harvin also doesn't have the pressure of being a No. 1 receiver who gets double-teamed. For Peterson, opposing teams can no longer stack the line because they have to respect Moss deep with two defenders.

Moss owners have to be ecstatic because Moss should be happy, which makes him play at the highest level ever seen at his position. It's apparent that Moss' contract situation and his feeling disrespected by Patriots management was affecting his play. Moss has never been one to run hard on every play, but this year more than ever he routinely gave away plays to opposing defenses through a body language that said the ball wasn't coming his way. Through four games, Moss had only nine receptions for 139 yards and three touchdowns. On Monday night against the Dolphins, he didn't catch any passes and dropped one sure touchdown reception.

Moss' departure from New England opens the door for more fantasy options who will fill pass-catching roles with the Patriots. Players such as Brandon Tate, Aaron Hernandez and Julian Edelman become players to take note of because Tom Brady is going to continue slinging the ball.

Look for Tate to be the main beneficiary of the Moss deal, making him a must-pickup in all leagues. This is the type of move that can elevate any fantasy team over the next 12 weeks. Tate is Brady's new deep-route guy, and he's widely available. Go get him.

■ OTHER MUST-PICKUPS -- Ryan Torain, RB, Redskins: Clinton Portis will miss up to six weeks, and Torain will become Washington's full-time back. He's already made an impact as a part-timer and should reach close to 100 yards weekly while Portis is out.
Michael Bush, RB, Raiders: Darren McFadden is out this week and possibly beyond with hamstring issues, leaving all the carries for Bush. He's a bruising, downhill runner who should fare well against a Chargers squad that struggled in its first two road games this year.

■ FANTASY GAME OF THE WEEK -- If waiting for the right time to use Eli Manning and Brandon Jacobs, this week at Houston should be it. Expect a high-tempo game with lots of scoring and big plays. Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson is still questionable, but Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter should pick up the void if he misses another game.

■ PROCEED WITH CAUTION -- The Bears-Panthers game without QB Jay Cutler and WR Steve Smith could be one of the week's ugliest matchups, sure to be filled with more errors than touchdowns. ... The Broncos probably won't have RB Knowshon Moreno again, and against a tough Ravens defense, don't look for his backups to do much. ... QB Max Hall starting in Arizona can't make WR Larry Fitzgerald owners happy, and the Saints will be fine with Chris Ivory running the ball should Pierre Thomas miss another game.

■ BYE WEEKS -- Miami, New England, Pittsburgh, Seattle.

Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director who covers all sports for multiple publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.

Sam Bradford Impressive in First Rams Start, Patriots Look Troubled

Associated Press

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- Poised and precise, Sam Bradford made an impressive debut as a starting NFL quarterback. It may have earned him the No. 1 job in the regular-season opener.

The top pick in the NFL draft zipped passes between and over defenders, threw for two touchdowns then watched the second half from the sidelines as the St. Louis Rams beat the New England Patriots 36-35 on Josh Brown's 37-yard field goal on the last play Thursday night.

But will Bradford be back under center for the Rams first snap Sept. 12 against the Arizona Cardinals?

"We've got to look at the film," coach Steve Spagnuolo said. "I want to see how he handled things when there was pressure."

He seemed to do just fine.

Bradford completed his first six passes, finished 15-of-22 for 189 yards and was sacked just once. He rarely got flustered and quickly located open receivers.

"It was a blast out there tonight," he said. "I had fun. I was used to doing what I was doing -- moving the offense up and own the field."

The 2008 Heisman Trophy winner missed most of last season at Oklahoma with a shoulder injury and made his first start since last October. When training camp began, Spagnuolo gave the starting job to A.J. Feeley, but he was sidelined with a sprained right thumb and Bradford got his chance after struggling for two games as a backup.

"He was putting the ball on the money," Rams running back Steven Jackson said. "You can tell he really knows the offense. I'm really impressed with how far he's come in a short time."

Other than Tom Brady, who completed 18 of 22 passes for 273 yards, and rookie tight end Rob Gronkowski, who caught two of Brady's three touchdown passes, there was very little impressive about the Patriots (2-1).

St. Louis (2-1) led in time of possession, 43:46 to 16:14, and in offensive yards, 462-288. The Patriots gained more than 10 yards on just four of 11 series while the Rams went nine for 11. And only one of the Patriots possessions lasted more than five plays; the Rams had nine.

"We didn't do well on anything," New England coach Bill Belichick said.

The Patriots offense didn't get a first down until 3:10 remained in the first half and finished with 12. Their defense gave up 30.

"They were able to move the ball at will," safety James Sanders said. "It was demoralizing."

New Rams owner Stan Kroenke had a much different feeling. One day after the NFL approved him, he went into his team's locker room before the game.

"That was terrific," Spagnuolo said. "He stayed for the entire game -- late into the night."

The Patriots had rallied from a 27-14 deficit to a 35-27 lead on Brady's touchdown passes of 65 yards to Randy Moss and 20 yards to Gronkowski and Brian Hoyer's 5-yarder to Sam Aiken with 11:14 left after an interception by Brandon McGowan.

Keith Toston scored on a 2-yard run but an incomplete pass for a conversion left the Rams behind 35-33.

They got the ball back after a punt and kept shredding the defense. Quarterback Keith Null directed a 41-yard drive to the Patriots 19 and Brown won the game with his third field goal.
Bradford led scoring drives on three of his first four series.

He went 4 for 4 for 48 yards and a 5-yard touchdown pass to Michael Hoomanawanui on his first series. On his third possession, Bradford was 3 for 4 for 48 yards, setting up a 25-yard field goal by Brown for a 10-7 lead.

And on his fourth series, he hooked up with Hoomanawanui again for a 12-yard score and a 17-7 lead. Brown added a 45-yard field goal after Gronkowski's 14-yard touchdown catch, putting St. Louis ahead 20-14 at halftime.

Bradford "made some good throws," Patriots cornerback Leigh Bodden said, "but we didn't make a lot of plays to make him look bad."

Another Rams rookie quarterback, free agent Thaddeus Lewis from Duke, led a 15-play, 76-yard march on the first series of the third quarter. It lasted 9 minutes, 19 seconds and ended with a 20-yard scoring pass to Brandon Gibson.

The Patriots had grabbed the lead just 12 seconds into the game on a 97-yard kickoff return by Brandon Tate.

Then Bradford took the field.

"Before I went out there, I took a deep breath and said, 'Do what you know how to do,' " he said.

And that's what he did.

Notes: Donnie Avery, who led Rams receivers with 47 catches last year, "probably has a significant knee injury," Spagnuolo said. Avery was hurt late in the first half when he jumped and landed after a long pass to him fell incomplete. ... The Patriots rushed for just 28 yards on 11 carries. Two Rams runners, Toston with 41 yards and Kenneth Darby with 35, outgained them. ... Wes Welker, playing for the second straight week after major knee surgery in February, had two catches for 41 yards for the Patriots.

Jets Rhodes and Ryan Talking Loud About Patriots: Good Idea?

Japan’s great Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto, is said to have made the statement, "I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve," immediately following their attack on Pearl Harbor.

This week the New York Jets have freely, and openly, sent a message to the Patriots through the media. Whether it turns out to be the same fate suffered by Yamamoto’s squad, has yet to be seen, but it sure is making the game seem much more interesting now.

“It’s to the point where enough is enough,” said New York Jets free-safety Kerry Rhodes.

“You go out from the first quarter on, from the first play on, and try to embarrass them,” Rhodes said. “Not just go out there and try to win, try to embarrass them. Try to make them feel bad when they leave here. We don’t want to just beat them. We want to send a message to them, ‘We’re not backing down from you and we expect to win this game, and it’s not going to be luck, it’s not going to be a mistake.’ ”

He also said that the Jets Defense would hit Tom Brady more than six times, the number of times that Brady was hit this past Monday night by the Buffalo Bills defense.

The Rhodes comments were made a day after new Head Coach Rex Ryan talked very positive in an emphatic manner that his Jets aren’t going to be bullied around anymore by the Patriots who have put a Beat-down on the Jets eight straight games at the Meadowlands.

“Talk is cheap,” Brady said Wednesday, referring to Ryan without even knowing what Rhodes said.

Patriots head coach Bill Belichik has shown Patriots the article and left it at that. None of the players had much to say regarding Rhodes comments.

You have to like the inspiration and motivation before games, but I don’t think it turns out too well for teams that call out the Patriots. It seems to make them stronger and more focused crusading with a common goal, yet not speaking about it and as a unit.

Remember Anthony Smith? He used to play the safety for Pittsburgh Steelers. In 2007 he guaranteed a victory against the Patriots in Foxboro. Brady responded with 399 yards and four Touchdowns in the Patriots 34-13 win.

The most memorable moment, or response to bold statements, was when Brady threw one of his bombs, or the final nail in the coffin.

He proceeded to run down field towards the end-zone, found Smith after he‘d been burned, and gave him some choice words not meant for reporters. Brady yelled the message out personally to Smith, as if to say, “this how I‘ll call you out, on the field!”

I haven‘t heard much from Smith of late, but I‘m sure he‘ll think twice before making a statement against anyone, let alone the Patriots.

Perhaps this is the best way to get a team riddled with losses to change their psyche, but no one wants to be that guy that gets punked in front of millions by Brady. I guess those are the sacrifices that must be made if you’re trying change an overall mind set. The other way sure wasn’t working.

Brady Connects in First Practice

By Ian R. Rapoport
Boston Herald

FOXBORO - A thick, black brace hugging his surgically repaired left knee, Tom Brady jogged toward the 15-yard line to take part in individual drills. And the crowd erupted.

The Patriots quarterback offered a quick wave, his subtle gesture acknowledging at 9:57 a.m. yesterday what the 4,024 in attendance at Gillette Stadium’s upper practice fields came to see.

Two years after his record-setting offensive show and a perfect regular season, and less than one year after tearing knee ligaments in the team’s opening game, Brady was back leading the Pats.

To teammates, nothing had changed besides the calendar.

“He looked just like Tom,” receiver Greg Lewis said.

With a few additions, perhaps.

A slight limp. A brace that was hidden by sweatpants during minicamp. A cautious gait, at times.

Still, there he was.

“It’s always good to see Tom out there,” coach Bill Belichick said.

Even with receivers Randy Moss and Joey Galloway resting during the morning session, Brady’s presence conjured up thoughts of his prolific 2007.

“That’s the plan,” receiver Wes Welker said. “That’s what we spend minicamp on, trying to get our timing down, working on new stuff, and trying to get better at old stuff.”

Even the team’s newcomers, like grizzled veteran running back Fred Taylor, couldn’t resist gushing.

“Playing these guys a few times in the playoffs, you look over and say, ‘Hey, we can go over and beat that team.’ What do they do that we don’t do?’ ” Taylor said. “But then when you get here, you see (Brady’s) passion, the way he studies, how demanding he is of his players, the leadership, it just jumps right out. You see why he’s a proven winner.”

Brady has three Super Bowl wins and one MVP to his name. But last season, while he battled the remnants of his injury, Matt Cassel filled in to lead the Pats to an 11-5 record but no playoff appearance.

“You’d be lying if you said there wasn’t a sour taste in your mouth,” running back Kevin Faulk said. “You just let that fuel you.”

Although Brady has appeared at minicamps and other organized activities this offseason, teammates saw him in full pads for the first time in just less than a year. If the Michigan product was trying to make a renewed impression, consider it done.

Late into the morning practice, as sun turned into a downpour, Brady never relented. It was not missed.

“Throughout the monsoon or rain storm, he was fired up,” Lewis said. “ ‘Let’s get up to the huddle, let’s break the huddle, let’s get out there and get this thing right or get this corrected.’ I like that. I want to be a part of that.”

With 14 days until the preseason opener against the Eagles, Belichick said there is no schedule for Brady and cautioned the QB may need an acclimation period. That may have been evident in the afternoon, when he underthrew several deep passes.

“The lag time between passing camp and training camp, it takes everyone a while to get to where they want to be,” Belichick said.

Don’t tell that to Brady or his teammates, though.

“I don’t think he expects that, I don’t think we expect that,” Welker said. “We don’t really look to have any setbacks or having Tom rusty or anything. We’re planning on pushing forward.”