Ravens-Steelers Thursday Night Selection: Vick starting is huge factor

Will Steelers tone down offensive playbook for Michael Vick?

The storylines are obvious when one of the NFL’s fiercest rivalries continues Thursday night (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFLN). The Ravens, who had aspirations of another Super Bowl coming into the season, are 0-3 for the first time in franchise history. The Steelers have won two in a row since losing the season-opener at New England, but will have to rely on Michael Vick with starting QB Ben Roethlisberger out 4-6 weeks with a sprained MCL.

Line: Baltimore -2.5, Total: 44

Line movement: How big is the move from Roethlisberger to Vick? Pitt was a 3.5-point favorite when the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted this game a week in advance. After Sunday’s Week 3 action, the Ravens opened -2.5 at most Vegas books and have been bet to -3 (even) at some venues. The total has hovered around 44 and 44.5.

Get the free selection here on TheLinemakers.com, plus video with Micah Roberts and Kenny White discussing match-up.

Steelers/Patriots Thursday night selection

Tom Brady likes to show off at home vs. good offenses. 

The Patriots have dominated this series, and the Pats-to-OVER correlation has been a strong one, cashing in six of the last 11 meetings. The OVER by itself has cashed in eight of the last 10.

These trends mirror the Patriots' tendencies when playing at home against good offenses. In the past two seasons, the Pats are 6-0 ATS at home when the total is 49.5 or higher. They’ve gone 5-0-1 to the OVER in those games. If you had blindly bet the Patriots/OVER parlay at 13-to-5 odds every week for the past four seasons, you would have cashed 31 times.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has covered only once in its last nine September games, but they should be respected in this spot, and laying a touchdown on Thursday night gives us pause.

Read More Here for free PITT/NE selection...........The Sporting News

Video: Roberts talks NFL Week 1 plays

Roberts Week 9 NFL Selections: Falcons and Giants are the Best Bets

The favorites went 8-5 last week bucking a season long trend of underdogs. I think the favorites will have an edge again this week, in particular some of the larger spreads.

Falcons -9 vs. Buccaneers: I keep looking at Tampa’s schedule and see only two good games on their schedule. Both of those games, against Pittsburgh and New Orleans, were blowouts and I look for the same this week.

Jets -4 @ Detroit: At first, I thought this was a trap game; the Lions getting points at home following a big win against a decent team in the Redskins and the Jets coming off a home loss to the Packers. Other than that, I just don’t see it happening and feel I’m getting value laying the points because of what happened last week. The more I looked at it, the more I sided with the Jets elevating it past several others in the rotation.

Giants -7 @ Seattle: Had Matt Hasselbeck been starting this game at home -- where the Seahawks are very impressive against anyone -- I would have a different opinion. But this game rests entirely with Charlie Whitehurst running the show for the first time ever and I don’t think he can make it happen against the best defensive front line in football. Imagine if the Giants decide to blitz -- which they will -- Whitehurst is going to wishing he was on the sideline holding that clip board again.

Chiefs +2 ½ @ Oakland: Love the way the Raiders have played the last two weeks, but I like the Chiefs better because of doing it week after week on the ground. This is a great rivalry, and should be a battle, but the Chiefs are the better team.

Colts +3 @ Philadelphia: Can Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson just come off of injuries and return to what they were prior? It’s possible, but I think it’s more likely that Peyton Manning torches the Eagles secondary like Kerry Collins and Kenny Britt did the last time the Eagles played.

Cowboys +7 ½ @ Green Bay: I like Dallas to play a good game just because the Packers are playing to everyone’s level. The Cowboys will be able to move the ball, hang around and possibly win just like the Dolphins and Redskins did.

Other games I didn’t bet, but lean towards: BUF +3, SD -2 ½, NO -6 ½, MIN -7 ½, MIA +5 ½, NE -4 ½, CIN +5      

My Entries into the LVRJ Handicapping Challenge for week 9

Roberts Week 8 NFL Plays: Broncos Bounce Back Big in London

Here are my NFL Picks for the Week. I'll have a write-up posted Saturday night on why I like the selections, but the bets are in (most anyway), so here's who I got:

Broncos +2 ½ vs. 49ers
Broncos +120 ML vs. 49ers
Broncos/49ers OVER 41 ½
Cowboys -6 ½ vs. Jaguars
Chiefs -7 ½ vs. Bills
Packers +6 @ NY Jets
Texans +6 @ Colts ( will bet Monday for best line)*
Texans +210 ML @ Colts (will bet Monday for best line)*

* The best value on this game if liking Houston is to wait until Monday morning when all of Sunday’s final parlay liability is figured into Monday’s what-if scenarios. The Colts are a huge public team and the extended risk for each sports book on them will be much higher than the Texans which will force a move to -6 ½ or -7 by game time.  

I have a few more I like for smaller unit plays which I'll include Saturday as well.                

Mike T's Week 2 NFL Picks: Two Totals and a Dog

by Mike T.

It was a pretty rough start for me in week 1 going 0-3. The Bengals only decided to show up for the 2nd half, the Colts gave up 257 yards on the ground and the 49ers failed to score any touchdowns in the redzone on their first 3 possessions.

I'd like to get back to just taking dogs and their is one that I like but their are two totals I just can't stay away from.

Bears @ Cowboys over 40.5

This number seems a little low to me. With all the offense that both of these teams had in week one it was surprising that they didn't score more. Romo has two of his starting offensive linemen returning which should give him more time to throw as well as opening up the run game. Jay Cutler threw for 372 yards and the Bears ran for over 100 yards while only putting up 19 points. I expect to see these two offenses to get in the endzone a lot more than they did last week.
Cowboys 28 Bears 21

Texans @ Redskins under 43.5
The Texans were able to run the ball for over 250 yards against the Colts last week. That will not be the case when they play the Redskins on Sunday. The Texans will face a front seven that is much better against the run and will have a much tougher time gaining ground yards. The Redskins offense looked as slow and boring as they did the last few years when they had Campbell. Kind of makes me wonder why they traded for McNabb. I do believe that both teams will still try to establish the run early with little success. I could see this game starting out with a scoreless first quarter and remaining low scoring throughout.
Texans 17 Redskins 16

Giants +5.5 @ Colts

Sunday night the Manning brothers will face off for only the second time in their careers. All the talking heads in the newspapers and on TV have been saying that there is NO WAY the Colts go 0-2. I believe they can and will. The Colts gave up over 250 yards on the ground last week and now have to go up against a solid veteran offensive line paving the way for Bradshaw and Jacobs. If the Colts plan is to stack the box to try to slow down the run Eli will have one on one matchups with his young talented receivers.

Peyton did throw for over 400 yards last week but will now face a much better and deeper Giants secondary. Peyton was also sacked twice and hit ten times last week and now will have to deal with Tuck, Kiwanuka,Osi and the rest of a deep and healthy defensive line. I expect Giants defensive coordinator Perry Fewell to have an agressive game plan by abusing an already banged up Colts offensive line while trying to create turnovers in the secondary.
Giants 31 Colts 21