Lucky's Sports Books in Vegas Open Up Odds to Win NFL Divisions

by Micah Roberts, Gaming Today

Jimmy Vaccaro and his crew at Lucky’s sports books across Nevada have opened up odds to win each NFL division for the 2010 season. After a few free agent signings, the NFL draft and key league suspensions handed down, Lucky’s odds are up and ready for action.

Each division has only four teams and it’s likely that many of the listed favorites will get there, but the fun of the entire exercise is attempting to find that one juicy nugget of a team that could surprise. Who is going to be that surprise division winner this season like the Bengals and Vikings were last season?

Lucky’s has six of the eight divisions listed with a double digit underdog. It’s hard to imagine teams like the Lions (15-1), Buccaneers (13-1), Browns (10-1) or Rams (13-1) winning their division at this stage of their rebuilding process, but it’s conceivable to believe the possibilities that lie within the Bills (12-1) and Jaguars (10-1).

The addition of C.J. Spiller to an already fairly competitive team creates an interesting look for Buffalo this season. The Jaguars spent their first four draft picks on defense, an area of dire need. They already have a good nucleus on offense with Maurice Jones-Drew, one of the most dynamic running backs in the league, and a seasoned NFL quarterback in David Garrard, and aren’t too removed from the 2007 team that competed for the division title with the Colts.

The Redskins are the longest shot to win the NFC East at 5 to 1, but it’s hard to ignore the impact that Mike Shanahan could immediately have as the new head coach. He already has picked up the best offensive lineman of the draft in Trent Williams with the fourth overall pick and addressed the team’s main concern at quarterback. The addition of Donovan McNabb, while keeping him within the division playing against defenses he knows very well, should make the Redskins a serious contender to beat out the Cowboys (13-10) and Giants (12-5) for the division.

Along with the Redskins, top picks to win the division that aren’t favorites would be the Jets (3-2) and the Falcons (8-5). There is nothing written that says a Super Bowl Champion can’t go back-to-back, but it’s only happened once in 10 years. Of the last 10 Super Bowl winners, only five have made the playoffs the following year. It’s hard to fathom the Saints falling off so drastically at this juncture before training camp has even started, but other than the 2000 Broncos, it was a shock to see those other four teams miss out. Getting plus money with a quality team like the Falcons to go along with history sounds pretty tempting.

The Jets have the tough task of trying to take down the Patriots (13-10), but it looks like these two teams are headed in opposite directions. The Jets have the nastiest defense in football, a great offensive line, fresh legs at running back and a rising star in quarterback Mark Sanchez who was brilliant in the playoffs leading the Jets to the AFC title game.

The Jets are such a strong contender to have a great season that they warrant future book wagering consideration to win the AFC Championship and Super Bowl. Lucky’s sports books have the Jets 8 to 1 to win the conference and 12 to 1 to win it all, some of the highest odds in town. In fact, the theoretic hold on all Lucky’s NFL futures are some of the lowest in the city which will somewhat guarantee that you’ll get the fairest prices on whatever team you’re looking to wager on by making a visit.

Mike T's AFC/NFC Championship Picks: Saints Go Marching On - Teaser Pleaser

by Mike T.

I had a very average week in the divisional round going 3-3 putting me at 7-4 for the playoffs and 39-23 for the season. All season long I had three games to chose from a list of sixteen. During the playoffs I felt I should have an opinion on every game and even some totals. It's much harder to try and have an opinion on every game instead of just the ones you like. The only game I really loved last week was the Vikings and I wound up doing OK since I got even more Vikes early Sunday morning. This week there is one side that I like and one I just can't get a handle on. I did play both totals though so I just have three picks to make.


Jets at Colts over 40
This is the game I can't get a grip on. This game opened at Colts -7 and is now 8.5 or even 9 at some places. I don't like laying more than 7 and I don't like that it's almost 2-1 public money. Normally because of those two reasons I'd be all over the Jets but rookie QBs don't have much success in conference championship games. I do like this game to go over. I don't think the Jets will hold this Colts team to 14 on the road like they did with the Chargers. Peyton Manning will get this team in the endzone a few times. I also think the Jets will find a few ways to score some points. I did tease (first time this year) the Colts down to -2 in one bet and have them in a small parlay -8.5, but I like the over much more.
Colts 27 Jets 16

Saints -3.5 vs Vikings and under 54
I was back and forth on this game all week as well. The one X factor in this game I thought would be the Vikings pass rush. We saw them just abuse Romo (just as I thought) last week and I figureed if they bring that type of pressure on Brees they should win this game. Different story this week. DTs Pat Williams(elbow), Kevin Williams(knee) and DE Ray Edwards (knee) are all questionable. Now I do expect all of them to play this week of course but I doubt they'll all be as effective as the were vs Dallas. If Brees has a split second more time than Romo did, the Saints are gonna torch this team. I also think the Saints will win the turnover battle 2-1 which may be drive killers and keep this one under.
Saints 35 Vikings 17

I don't bet teasers often but I liked this a lot...

Colts -2
Over 33.5 in Jets/Colts
Saints +3
Under 60.5 Saints/Vikings

AFC-NFC Championship Game Line Moves From Las Vegas

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Action has been good thus far in Las Vegas Sports Books for this weekends Championship games, but the sharp money hasn’t shown its hand yet. Most of the action coming in has been small money from the public with a wide array of opinions.


Ticket counts at a few different properties indicate the type of betting patterns and action that will magnify about 90% more over the weekend, but it’s a good sample ratio of what’s to come, minus the sharp money.

The Colts are trending at about a 9-to-5 edge in overall tickets written. Some books are reporting that this game is similar to what we see every year in the Super Bowl, laying the points with the favorite and taking the money line with the 'dog.

Over at the Las Vegas Hilton, they opened the game Sunday with the Colts a 7-point favorite and a standard money line of Colts minus-330 with a very generous take back of plus-270. As the game moved to 7 ½, so did the money line, peaking at -400/+330.

Read More Here on VegasInsider.com

Here's a few tidbits of past history regarding the Championship games:

Since 1970, 62% of all games (78) have been won by 11 points or more showing that when it comes down to all the marbles, one team goes for the throat while the other plays beneath the level that got them there.

In reference to Championship game points spreads and how those teams have finished that are similar to this weeks lines, you can see that the Colts have history on their side, not just winning, but covering the spread as well. Teams that were favored by 7 to 9.5-points are 14-4 against the spread.

Things are a little more competitive with the Vikings-Saints game, and how history relates to that spread. Teams that have been have been favored by 3.5 to 6.5-points in this round have gone 12-12-2 against the spread. The tightness of the number and team rating, minus the standard 3-point home-field advantage, basically make these pick 'em games.

In New Orleans case, the home field advantage -- one of the leagues better home edges -- is worth an extra half-point. So essentially the game is a tossup between the two best teams in the NFC, being played in a hostile environment. The big questions is, how much of a difference will the crowd make?

Overall, home teams vs the spread are 44-32-2 all-time. 


Current Line Through Friday Afternoon offered by the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 @ New Orleans Saints - Over/Under Total 52
New York Jets +7.5 @ Indianapolis Colts - O/U Total 39.5

NFL's Defensive MVP, Charles Woodson? Rex Ryan Says Hogwash!

Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan was pretty heated about the announcement of who won the NFL's Most Valuable Player on Defense, which revealed that Charles Woodson had double the votes (28) of Darrelle Revis (14).

“I would like to congratulate the people who voted for Darrelle Revis,” Ryan said, “that these guys obviously really know the game. … A number I think is interesting would be eight. And, no, that’s not the amount of touchdown passes that Green Bay gave up against [the Arizona Cardinals in Sunday’s loss]. That is the number of touchdown passes we gave up all season as the Jets. And the biggest reason for that is Darrelle Revis.”

NFL Notebook: Saints Are Now The Public Favorites

by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

Every year in pro football there is an "It" team in which the entire betting public attempts to ride week after week throughout the season, and usually get there more times than not. This year it is the New Orleans Saints who have wowed the audience with a seemingly unstoppable offense.

"The Saints are one of the favorites of the public thus far because of their high powered offense and the fact that they have covered easily in their games," said Art Manteris, vice-president of Station Casino’s Las Vegas Sports Books. "I had a few respected people tell me early on how high they were on the Saints, and wagers on season totals reflected so."

Station’s opened the Saints to win 9 games, under -135, and ended up closing 9 over -120. A huge variable in that total’s equation, the road games at Philadelphia and Buffalo, was answered when the Saints and Bills both destroyed the McNabb-less Eagles, making the early moves seem to have a huge edge at this juncture.

Last Sunday the Saints rolled into Buffalo and made it appear that it was a close game, and then reeled off a running attack that closed the game out like all top covering teams do. It wasn’t about Drew Brees throwing 300 yards plus, it was about total game control.

Next up for the Saints?

Could it be that we have a great match-up of two 3-0 teams this early in the season with the outspoken Jets traveling to New Orleans this week? Of all the defenses in the league, the Rex Ryan posse looks like the most vicious and angry among them. He’s brought on a persona and swagger that all the players are going along with.

Pro Football Moves of the Week

The Eagles opened Monday at -9½ as a circled game. By Sunday, Chiefs money came in enough to drop the line to -7. Kansas City was never in the game as Philly won easily 34-14.

The public drove the Saints up from a -4½ favorite Monday to a closing number of -6 after being at -6½ for some time. The Saints covered easily.

The Oakland Raiders opened as -1½ point favorite on Monday but Broncos money moved the line to Denver -2½ by kickoff. The move was correct as Denver smoked the hapless Raiders in front of their home crowd of creatures.

Dead Game: There was virtually no action one way or another on the side or total of the Browns/Ravens game last week.

Sports Books Tough Day on Sunday

"We had a lot of risk with some of the favorites early on with the parlay cards and off the board parlays," said South Point Director of Sports Bert Osborne. "If it weren’t for the Vikings not covering their -6½ point spread, it could have been a lot worse when dealing with all the favorite parlays played throughout the day.

"A lot of those big spreads came in on the early games," Osborne continued. "The Ravens, Patriots, Giants, and Packers covered and the public was also with the Jets."

Though support came from the public on a lot of the favorites, the sharp players didn’t have many plays this week. Two of the only sharp moves of the day were on the Titans getting +2 and +1½ at the Jets.

"The public did well against the books on Sunday," said Osborne. "When the Bears came in along with the Saints and Broncos in the late games, it didn’t set up a great position for the house going into the night game with the Colts and Monday’s game with the Cowboys."

Despite the line moving on the Cardinals at home, the public kept betting the Colts, who they had all just seen beat the Dolphins last week. The Cowboys were also an attractive team just because no one wants Jake Delhomme on their ticket, and also the fact that the Cowboys lost their opener in their new stadium. They couldn’t lose two in row at home, could they?

Two-pt conversion of the week

Pittsburgh opened as -4½ favorite and was bet down to -3½ EVEN by kickoff. In the late stages of the game, the Bengals scored making the game Steelers 20-15 and did the right thing in going for a 2-pt conversion, but when they failed, it gave the Steelers and their bettors a nice cover for the time being. And then the Bengals came back with a late drive and converted two fourth-down conversions, and scored the game winning touchdown.

Broncos Looking Good

Denver controlled the clock for 36 minutes and ran for 215 yards on offense while holding the Raiders to 137 yards total offense in their 23-3 win at Oakland. The win gave the Broncos the top rated defense in yardage and points allowed. Kyle Orton has yet to throw an interception, but the Bronco offense did have a turnover, their first of the season.

Jets Rhodes and Ryan Talking Loud About Patriots: Good Idea?

Japan’s great Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto, is said to have made the statement, "I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve," immediately following their attack on Pearl Harbor.

This week the New York Jets have freely, and openly, sent a message to the Patriots through the media. Whether it turns out to be the same fate suffered by Yamamoto’s squad, has yet to be seen, but it sure is making the game seem much more interesting now.

“It’s to the point where enough is enough,” said New York Jets free-safety Kerry Rhodes.

“You go out from the first quarter on, from the first play on, and try to embarrass them,” Rhodes said. “Not just go out there and try to win, try to embarrass them. Try to make them feel bad when they leave here. We don’t want to just beat them. We want to send a message to them, ‘We’re not backing down from you and we expect to win this game, and it’s not going to be luck, it’s not going to be a mistake.’ ”

He also said that the Jets Defense would hit Tom Brady more than six times, the number of times that Brady was hit this past Monday night by the Buffalo Bills defense.

The Rhodes comments were made a day after new Head Coach Rex Ryan talked very positive in an emphatic manner that his Jets aren’t going to be bullied around anymore by the Patriots who have put a Beat-down on the Jets eight straight games at the Meadowlands.

“Talk is cheap,” Brady said Wednesday, referring to Ryan without even knowing what Rhodes said.

Patriots head coach Bill Belichik has shown Patriots the article and left it at that. None of the players had much to say regarding Rhodes comments.

You have to like the inspiration and motivation before games, but I don’t think it turns out too well for teams that call out the Patriots. It seems to make them stronger and more focused crusading with a common goal, yet not speaking about it and as a unit.

Remember Anthony Smith? He used to play the safety for Pittsburgh Steelers. In 2007 he guaranteed a victory against the Patriots in Foxboro. Brady responded with 399 yards and four Touchdowns in the Patriots 34-13 win.

The most memorable moment, or response to bold statements, was when Brady threw one of his bombs, or the final nail in the coffin.

He proceeded to run down field towards the end-zone, found Smith after he‘d been burned, and gave him some choice words not meant for reporters. Brady yelled the message out personally to Smith, as if to say, “this how I‘ll call you out, on the field!”

I haven‘t heard much from Smith of late, but I‘m sure he‘ll think twice before making a statement against anyone, let alone the Patriots.

Perhaps this is the best way to get a team riddled with losses to change their psyche, but no one wants to be that guy that gets punked in front of millions by Brady. I guess those are the sacrifices that must be made if you’re trying change an overall mind set. The other way sure wasn’t working.