Cardinals - Saints NFL Week 1 selection

The Cardinals should come out fired up like they always do at home.

This game matches up the best cover team from last year (Arizona at 11-5 ATS) against one of the worst (Saints 6-10 ATS). It’s a new year, but the changes since last season favor the Cardinals, foremost a healthy Carson Palmer. There’s been a downgrade for the Saints, with their most explosive, dominating player – Jimmy Graham – out of the mix. Running back Khiry Robinson is questionable and C.J. Spiller is out. Then, factor in the Saints’ mediocrity on grass. While the total is based on the Saints’ overall performance, they’ve stayed UNDER in nine of their past 11 on grass.

This line has stayed steady at -2.5 since opening numbers were posted in April. There is value with the home team and for them to keep the Saints offense in check. We have a correlation play on Arizona and UNDER, and hooking these bets up in a two-team parlay or two-team 6-point teaser is not a bad idea. The plays are Arizona -2.5 and UNDER 48.

Predicted score: Cardinals 24-17

Read More Free NFL Picks from Micah Roberts here.......Sporting News

NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Moves at Las Vegas Sports Books

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Twenty NFL teams are finished for the year, four are waiting for an opponent while on a bye week and eight slug it out to advance this weekend. It’s Wild Card week of the playoffs, a portion of the playoffs that is much unlike the divisional and championship rounds because the short underdogs have major value.

Upon the Las Vegas sportsbooks opening the lines, the Sharps sided with all of the underdogs with three of the four all getting three points. Much of the attraction has to do strictly with the value of “3” this season, a margin of victory that has landed 47 times this season totaling 18.5% of all games. It’s the highest total seen in the league for some time. Consider that just two years ago, only 28 games (10.5%) landed on this short margin.

The other factor is just how well short ‘dogs have done in this round. Since 1978, teams getting 1 to 3 points in the Wild Card round have gone 26-16-2 against the spread. And, home underdogs have gone a combined 11-3 in all Wild Card contests. The low spreads success rate may indicate that maybe too much respect is being given to the home team where the value is generally worth 3 to 3 ½ points in the rating.

Last year, the books had all four games hovering from minus-1 to minus-4 with all the home teams favored. One of the games, the Packers at Arizona, moved six points by kickoff with the Packers ending up being favored by 3-points. Three of the underdogs won outright, including Arizona, with only Dallas covering as a favorite.

This season we have a monster favorite like never seen before from a road team in the Wild Card. The Saints opened as 10-point favorites over Seattle and were quickly bet up to minus-10 ½, but it’s been two-way action since with the line hopping back and forth between the two numbers over at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

This game against the 7-9 Seahawks fits the Saints profile perfect as they have beaten only two teams this season that had winning records. They beat the Seahawks in Week 11 as an 11-point favorite 34-19 at home, but along the way have fell into lapses like losing to Cleveland, Arizona and nearly losing to the Panthers.

Seattle meanwhile comes in with a solid conservative effort in a must-win game against the Rams with backup quarterback Charlie Whitehurst leading the way for only their second win in their last seven played. The team they beat over that span was the Panthers. This week, however, Seattle will be going back with Matt Hasselbeck, who engineered many of those losses despite Whitehurst being a bit more mobile.

The first two large bets in the Jets-Colts games were on the Jets getting plus-3 and then plus-3 (-125) before settling at Colts minus-2 ½. The Jets were in the same position last season in this round at Cincinnati and won outright. They then won at San Diego as large 7-point underdogs before losing 30-17 at Indianapolis in the AFC Championship game as 7 ½-point underdogs.

During the second half of the season, Peyton Manning just hasn’t looked like himself throwing 15 of his 17 interceptions from Week 9 on. Part of that has been getting used to life without targets Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. The other part has been an injury riddled running back corps. Running back Joseph Addai and the gang are back and probably healthier than ever right now, but Collie and Clark remain out.

Who would have ever thought there would be a time when Manning was quarterbacking at home during the playoffs where we could lay a field goal or perhaps less at kickoff?

There were some early plays on the Chiefs as Sharps were playing the value of the number and home underdog trends, but after going to Ravens minus-2 ½, money came in on the Ravens pushing the number back to minus-3. It’s been teetering back and forth ever since going from even money to flat with more Chiefs money.

These are two teams that are playing well at the moment with the Chiefs winning five of their last seven while the Ravens have won six of their last seven. The Ravens are riding high right now and have been one of the better road playoff teams in recent playoff history. The Chiefs come limping in after getting destroyed by the Raiders in Week 17. True, it was a meaningless game, but come on, it was the hated Raiders. The timing of Charlie Weiss announcing he was going to make a lateral move as offensive coordinator for Florida sure sounds like a correlation for their flat play last week.

The game of the week, or at least sexiest, is Green Bay visiting Philadelphia for a Week 1 rematch where the whole Michael Vick re-birth began after linebacker Clay Matthews knocked then starting QB Kevin Kolb out of the game. The Packers won 27-20, but not before Vick gave us glimpse of what was about to do this season. Vick had the Packers defense off balance in the second half.

The Eagles opened minus-3 (EVEN) and Packers money came in dropping the line to minus- 2 ½ (-120). Most of the Las Vegas sportsbooks have the game at either 2 ½ flat or money tied to it, but the Hilton and Mirage both have the Eagles at minus-3 (EVEN).

I still haven’t decided who I’m going to take in these games as a case can be made for all, but I have to have at least some kind of action on them. You can’t just watch a football game with nothing riding on it. Fantasy football is over, so I can’t even resort to that. My first instinct is to take the Ravens who are basically the road warriors in the playoffs. However, the home underdog stat has me doubting the pick. My other instincts say take the Saints, Packers and Jets, but I could probably be talked out of each game.

As for the public and early ticket counts, it’s all on the Ravens, Packers, Saints and Colts, in that order. The early week plays are usually a good indicator of what the overall public consensus is. However, about 95% of the action for these games will come Friday night through Sunday. The Packers late game Sunday will be a tough spot for the sportsbooks, who will have all that weighted play parlayed into the final game, even if two of the other three games turn out well for them.

Super Bowl Futures
For those looking to play futures to win the Super Bowl or Conferences, my advice is to just bet the money line on the team all the way, rolling the money over weekly. In some cases, it’s not as easy for people to get bets down weekly which is why they take the set future odds as a matter of convenience. But for those looking to get maximum value on your team, taking the set price almost never equals out to what a certain team would pay if just rolling the money over weekly. Do the math on potential matchups in each conference and you’ll see that rolling the money over is the best way to increase your bankroll and value.

Should the set price then be greater than what the math shows, then that should be the only time to bet a Super Bowl future. But that rarely happens because most sports books build in a 20% or higher theoretical hold for this round of 12 teams that always gives the edge to the house. There are some instances where books will inflate certain teams to attract action due to liability from the course of the season, but it still rarely goes beyond the true odds.

The fairest future odds in Las Vegas for all sports with low hold percentages are always at the Hilton, M Resort & Spa and Lucky’s.

Brett Favre and Drama Reach New Heights; Saints-Vikings Game Middled in Las Vegas

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

It was a little over a month ago when everyone was wondering what was going to happen with the Brett Favre saga in Minnesota. Would he stay, or would he go? The Las Vegas sportsbooks played the game along the way, as Favre’s decision was unknown through multiple false reports of his intentions, adjusting a week one opening line that opened as far back as Apr. 29 with the Super Bowl champion Saints being a solid four-point home favorite to the Vikings in a rematch of the NFC title game.

The line got as high as 6 ½-points at many books as they bobbed and weaved through all the smoke signals and tweets of misinformation until finally settling at 4 ½ leading into this week. The public money came in support of the Saints early in the week with enough cash cumulatively to count for a worthy move to 5 and eventually 5 ½ by Wednesday.

Moving to 5 and 5 ½ was easy an easy move according to any standard bookmaking text because those are the deadest of all numbers. The loneliest of numbers in NFL margin of victory from one through eight is 5. In traditional bookmaking philosophy, because the number is so dead, it doesn’t even take a full limit wager to move off the number. It’s almost like if the tidal wave of action is coming -- which it looked like -- then get closer to -6 and let them lay that.

That standard bookmaking gets thrown out the window when a team misses an extra-point in a low-scoring game and then the same top drafted fantasy football kicker misses two easy field-goals. That’s exactly what happened in Thursday night’s kickoff to the 2010 NFL season when the Saints won by the deadest of all numbers, five, in a 14-9 victory over the Vikings.

Once the sportsbooks all got to -5 ½, the sharp Viking money started coming in almost as if they knew the number was key in this instance as opposed to all other games when it does mean nothing. Most of the books around town closed at -4 ½ or 5, but surprisingly even with most of the shops getting middled somewhat, the books still made out well because the total didn’t come close to going over the posted number of 48 ½, which basically eliminated a large portion of parlays.

By eliminating the predominant parlays heading into the weekend with either Vikings or Saints to the over, all the those funds tied to the 'over' into Sunday’s games went to the house. The only folks who made out collectively were the sharps.

Some of the risk that is still active lies with ties-win parlay cards where most of the city settled on the supposed dead number of “5” which is now active on both sides going into this weekend's college and pro football games. Bettors who played parlays off the board at -5 will get a push and reduce down, but nevertheless, they are still active as well which isn’t good for house since this was the most bet game of the week.

The Vegas sports ooks may have cashed in pretty large today despite the sharps siding them, but there is still considerable risk due to the results which will weigh heavily on the weekend decision. Should the likes of the Colts, Titans, Packers, Cowboys and Dolphins cover Sunday, the final losing tally for the books heading into Monday will be more than doubled what it would have been had there been a 3 or 7-point decision on Thursday night’s Saints game.

In more ways than ever thought, even from a betting perspective, Brett Favre brings drama to the table like no other.

Get all your sports betting information at VegasInsider.com

Las Vegas Sports Books Fare Well in Super Bowl, But It Could Have Been Better

by Micah Roberts

Gaming Today Las Vegas

After all was said and done on Super Bowl Sunday, results turned out to be mixed, but nonetheless okay for the Las Vegas sports books.


Many in the books were a little worried about the handle, or lack of it, going into Super Bowl weekend. They weren’t seeing as many large bets as normal on either side and they were also missing visitors from back East due to cancelled flights.

"I don’t know exactly when those people who were delayed finally got into town, but when they landed here, it was apparent by the rise in our handle," said MGM MIRAGE (MGM) race and sports director Jay Rood.

"By 10 am Sunday, we were trending about 10% less than last year’s Super Bowl," Rood continued. "When we tallied everything up after kickoff, we were up 3% over last season."

When the sports books posted the score with the Saints winning 31-17, just about every book in the city did well, though some did better than others. The best scenario would have been the Colts winning, but not covering, and staying under the total of 57.

One of the few books that had their best scenario unfold was the M Resort’s race and sports book.

"We couldn’t be happier with the outcome," said M Sports Book Director Mike Colbert, "It was the best result we could have had. We never moved off the 4½."

The M was ahead of the curve a little bit by having the game at 4½ for almost the entire two week duration while most books in town were at 5 or 5½. By game time, just about everyone in town was sitting at 4½.

"We saw sharp money come in late with the Saints while we had early sharp money on the Colts money line, laying -200," said Colbert.

Overall, the M Resort might have done $10 million in handle, an amount fueled by hundreds of prop bets, as well as In-running wagering, which can turn over a ton of money because of the constant, real time bets taking place.

Of course, the Las Vegas Hilton is the unquestioned leader in Super Bowl props (about half of the casino’s Super Bowl handle comes from prop bets), though sports director Jay Kornegay said players probably did well enough to cut into the Hilton’s bottom line, and "there were a lot of bets on the Saints."

He estimated the Hilton would probably break even or come out slightly behind the players this year.

Lucky’s Sports Books, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, expected to have a winning ledger, even if it’s just a slight win, when everything is tallied, even though the "money line was bad" for the house.

Professional poker player Phil Ivey reportedly made wagers totaling well over $3 million at various sports books around town. Despite the large bets, many books by game day had the Colts at minus-190, much lower than the amount bet by Ivey.

Is it possible that Ivey was part of an overall scheme to sway the market one way? It’s not uncommon to see, but it’s uncommon to have a celebrity in the middle of it. That’s a lot of seed money to lay down, then again, if the Colts won with the Saints covering, the bettor wins both sides.

The sports books all reported great handle on the various props. The local sports books seemed to do poorer than the Strip with the special point spread props laying -3½, -7½ and -10½ with the Saints at big plus money.

Some of the other props that the public did well with was under 8 punts, yes on a defensive touchdown, the yes on the two-point conversion and player to score first.

"Pierre Garcon got a lot of respect from the public and they were playing him to be that guy to score first, and he did," said Rood.

The Strip properties also enjoyed posting the future odds to win the Super Bowl, which had been up since last February; those wagers added about 30% extra to the winning bottom line.

"It was a really good day," said Rood, "We did all right. We had great two-way action on the game and did well against some of the larger bets that we did take."

Overall handle results won’t be known for another two days as the Nevada Gaming Control Board compiles all the data from across the state, but it’s safe to speculate at this point that the Strip properties held a higher win percentage than the local places.

Regardless of who did what, most bookies expect the handle will top last year’s lackluster $81.5 million, even though it probably won’t come close to the record $94.5 million wagered in 2006.

Nevada’s Gaming Control Board will report the statewide Super Bowl handle, as well as the amount won (or lost!) by the sports books later this week.

View the report as soon as it’s available here on this website.

Super Bowl Betting Hasn't Quite Heated Up Yet, Landslide expected Saturday and Sunday

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Super Bowl XLIV betting has been steady at the Las Vegas Sportsbooks with ticket counts showing up at a little higher than 5 to 2 in favor of the Colts. Just about every sportsbook in town has the Colts as 5.5-point favorites with a few variations on the total from 56 to 57.


We haven’t seen anything yet though. Over 95% of all wagers on the game will be made Saturday and Sunday of this week and that will be where the telling sign is to where this game will go. So far on a small sample ratio, the Colts appear to be that team.

And why not? They have been the most consistent team all season seemingly unfazed where they play, what surface the game is on, and don’t even blink if they find themselves in a deficit.

The Saints on the hand have many in the general public asking themselves if they are in the Super Bowl merely because of the home field advantage they had in the Superdome for the NFC title game where they looked to have been outplayed.

Had this game been in early November, the Saints would likely be the team with a 5 to 2 ticket count ratio. They were peaking at that juncture and looked to be unstoppable but then came the stretch run and they ran out of gas in the final furlong losing three straight as the playoffs began.

Fortunately for the Saints, they do have a little recent history on their side. Remember the dreadful 80’s and early 90’s Super Bowls that saw blowouts every year with NFC teams dominating?

Ever since Denver knocked off the Packers as an 11-point underdog, the Super Bowls have been pretty entertaining for the most part.

Read More Here............

Super Bowl Is Set: Vegas Bettors Immediately Jump on Colts

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The stage is set!


The Super Bowl now has its two contestants and it couldn’t be more appropriate that it comes down to the two best teams in the league. Both the Colts and Saints matched each other win for win throughout the regular season without a loss through Week 13 and now they’ll match up in what has become a rarity in pro football, the top teams from each conference facing each other.

The No. 1 seeds from each conference will square off for the first time in the Super Bowl since 1993 when the Bills played Dallas. The matchup on paper looks to be one of the better ones in years matching up the Saints and Colts passing offenses against each other.

There is also plenty of intrigue in the game led by the story of this being the Saints first trip to the Super Bowl ever. Peyton Manning will be making his second visit to the Super Bowl, a game won in Miami, the site of this year’s game. In fact, now, all four of the Colts Super Bowl games will have been played in Miami.

Then there’s the story of Manning growing up in New Orleans who is the son of Saints legend Archie Manning. We’ll have two weeks to sift through all the Super Bowl stories and hype, but the top immediate story rests with the Las Vegas line; what was offered to the public and how they responded.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent a recommendation with the Colts as a 4-point favorite and a total of 52. The Las Vegas Hilton was the first Las Vegas Sports Book to offer the Super Bowl posting the Colts at -4, but bumped their initial total offering to 56.

Read More Here.....

Mike T's AFC/NFC Championship Picks: Saints Go Marching On - Teaser Pleaser

by Mike T.

I had a very average week in the divisional round going 3-3 putting me at 7-4 for the playoffs and 39-23 for the season. All season long I had three games to chose from a list of sixteen. During the playoffs I felt I should have an opinion on every game and even some totals. It's much harder to try and have an opinion on every game instead of just the ones you like. The only game I really loved last week was the Vikings and I wound up doing OK since I got even more Vikes early Sunday morning. This week there is one side that I like and one I just can't get a handle on. I did play both totals though so I just have three picks to make.


Jets at Colts over 40
This is the game I can't get a grip on. This game opened at Colts -7 and is now 8.5 or even 9 at some places. I don't like laying more than 7 and I don't like that it's almost 2-1 public money. Normally because of those two reasons I'd be all over the Jets but rookie QBs don't have much success in conference championship games. I do like this game to go over. I don't think the Jets will hold this Colts team to 14 on the road like they did with the Chargers. Peyton Manning will get this team in the endzone a few times. I also think the Jets will find a few ways to score some points. I did tease (first time this year) the Colts down to -2 in one bet and have them in a small parlay -8.5, but I like the over much more.
Colts 27 Jets 16

Saints -3.5 vs Vikings and under 54
I was back and forth on this game all week as well. The one X factor in this game I thought would be the Vikings pass rush. We saw them just abuse Romo (just as I thought) last week and I figureed if they bring that type of pressure on Brees they should win this game. Different story this week. DTs Pat Williams(elbow), Kevin Williams(knee) and DE Ray Edwards (knee) are all questionable. Now I do expect all of them to play this week of course but I doubt they'll all be as effective as the were vs Dallas. If Brees has a split second more time than Romo did, the Saints are gonna torch this team. I also think the Saints will win the turnover battle 2-1 which may be drive killers and keep this one under.
Saints 35 Vikings 17

I don't bet teasers often but I liked this a lot...

Colts -2
Over 33.5 in Jets/Colts
Saints +3
Under 60.5 Saints/Vikings

AFC-NFC Championship Game Line Moves From Las Vegas

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Action has been good thus far in Las Vegas Sports Books for this weekends Championship games, but the sharp money hasn’t shown its hand yet. Most of the action coming in has been small money from the public with a wide array of opinions.


Ticket counts at a few different properties indicate the type of betting patterns and action that will magnify about 90% more over the weekend, but it’s a good sample ratio of what’s to come, minus the sharp money.

The Colts are trending at about a 9-to-5 edge in overall tickets written. Some books are reporting that this game is similar to what we see every year in the Super Bowl, laying the points with the favorite and taking the money line with the 'dog.

Over at the Las Vegas Hilton, they opened the game Sunday with the Colts a 7-point favorite and a standard money line of Colts minus-330 with a very generous take back of plus-270. As the game moved to 7 ½, so did the money line, peaking at -400/+330.

Read More Here on VegasInsider.com

Here's a few tidbits of past history regarding the Championship games:

Since 1970, 62% of all games (78) have been won by 11 points or more showing that when it comes down to all the marbles, one team goes for the throat while the other plays beneath the level that got them there.

In reference to Championship game points spreads and how those teams have finished that are similar to this weeks lines, you can see that the Colts have history on their side, not just winning, but covering the spread as well. Teams that were favored by 7 to 9.5-points are 14-4 against the spread.

Things are a little more competitive with the Vikings-Saints game, and how history relates to that spread. Teams that have been have been favored by 3.5 to 6.5-points in this round have gone 12-12-2 against the spread. The tightness of the number and team rating, minus the standard 3-point home-field advantage, basically make these pick 'em games.

In New Orleans case, the home field advantage -- one of the leagues better home edges -- is worth an extra half-point. So essentially the game is a tossup between the two best teams in the NFC, being played in a hostile environment. The big questions is, how much of a difference will the crowd make?

Overall, home teams vs the spread are 44-32-2 all-time. 


Current Line Through Friday Afternoon offered by the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 @ New Orleans Saints - Over/Under Total 52
New York Jets +7.5 @ Indianapolis Colts - O/U Total 39.5

Jets Win Over Chargers Makes Rex Ryan's Prediction Near Fruition

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

In almost a near repeat of Wild Card weekend, the first three Divisional Playoff games last weekend were snoozers with little drama. Then the weekend finale came Sunday evening and reminded us all why we love the NFL so much.


The Jets 17-14 win as 9.5-point underdogs at San Diego doesn’t match the shootout of the Packers-Cardinals with scores, but it topples that Wild Card game by being a major upset and unveiling this seasons Cinderella story.

No one believed Rex Ryan two weeks ago when a reporter asked him what he thought about the Jets 50 to 1 odds to win the Super Bowl and he replied that they should be the favorite because they have the No. 1 defense and the No. 1 running game.

Just about everyone laughed. But so far, we know the Bengals and Chargers aren’t laughing as they’ve experienced first hand what a good combination those two features are in the playoffs.

MGM-Mirage Race and Sports Book Director Jay Rood likes what the Jets are doing, but can’t be faulted if he doesn’t root for them.

“Of the four teams remaining, we do the worst with the Jets on Futures (to win the Super Bowl),” said Rood, “Maybe we all should have listened to Rex Ryan a little closer.“

The Jets supposed weakness in rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez has been somewhat of a strength during the playoffs. Under the Jets style of play, Sanchez only has to make a few passes, and must protect the ball, which he has done.

Sanchez’s second straight playoff win has already tied him with Hall of Famer Joe Namath in career playoff wins and has matched what Joe Flacco did last season with Baltimore as a rookie.

Baltimore happened to be where Rex Ryan was coaching last season before getting his first head coaching job with New York. While some grumbled when Ryan chose Sanchez to be the starter during pre-season, Ryan knew the job could get done by witnessing how the Ravens protected Flacco in a similar situation under their offensive scheme.

Read More Here on VegasInsider.com


Click Here: NFC Championship Game History with Lines & Totals

Roberts Week 8 Pro Football Selections: Time to go Against Colts & Saints

49ers +13 @ Indianapolis: The Colts have been riding high but their running into a 49ers squad that is getting little respect from the public in this game. The proper line for this game should be 8 or 8.5. Anytime you can get value that high with a dog crossing over 10 points and into the 13 area, it's a good play. We're not talking about the Bucs, Browns, Lions, Rams, or Chiefs here, we're talking about a solid 49ers squad that plays good defense and can move the ball.

Titans -3 vs Jaguars: Regardless of Vince Young starting, the Titans running game will be what gets them the win this week. If Young can use his legs more and pass less avoiding turnovers, the Titans should win this game by at 13. Look for Chris Johnson to have a big day against the poor Jacksonville run defense.

Giants -1 @ Eagles: The Eagles opened up a 3-point favorite but the G-men are getting the money, as they should be. Eagles had a short week with their Monday night win while the Giants come in on a two game losing streak. A big bonus for the Giants may be that WR Mario Manningham, and his dropped passes, may be limited giving Hakeem Nicks more playing time and opportunities to score in his fifth straight game. Perfect spot for the Giants.

Panthers +10 @ Arizona: Jake DelHomme was given a vote of confidence amid cries from the Charlotte folks to pull him after throwing 13 picks thus far. The last time he faced the Cardinals he threw five interceptions in the playoffs. Just because the entire universe and logic shows the Cardinals should expose DelHomme again, it looks like getting point in this game is the right side. Proper line on this game is -7.5. look for DelHomme and Steve Smith to have their best day of the year.

Falcons +11 @ Saints: Wait until Monday to bet because the line will go much higher. Proper line for this game is -6 or -6.5, but due to the nature of betting patterns and payouts with the Saints, their line is over-inflated. The Falcons are a good football team, not one of these also-rans who should be getting double digit points. The crowd will be electric, but last years division champs will have something for the Saints on Monday. Possible upset and worth a money line play.

Las Vegas Sports Books a Small Winner Over Weekend: Huge Favorites for Week 5 of NFL

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider,com

Las Vegas Sports Books struggled on Saturday with a lot key favored teams covering, making it their least profitable Saturday of the season after five weeks. In Pro Football, the books had gone 1-2 against the Public through the first three weeks, but week four started out great.

“We did really well in the early games with teams like the Titans and Ravens not doing well, said MGM-Mirage Race and Sports Director Jay Rood. “But in the late games with favorites like Saints and 49ers coming through, we gave some of it back.”

Over at the Las Vegas Hilton, Executive Director Jay Kornegay had similar results.

“We lost a little on Saturday and won a little on Sunday.” said Kornegay. “I wouldn’t call it a push, but overall we were slight winner.“

The encouraging note for the books is that the two teams that had been virtual bet against all season, the Browns and Buccaneers, covered their spreads despite losing.

read more.....

NFL Notebook: Saints Are Now The Public Favorites

by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

Every year in pro football there is an "It" team in which the entire betting public attempts to ride week after week throughout the season, and usually get there more times than not. This year it is the New Orleans Saints who have wowed the audience with a seemingly unstoppable offense.

"The Saints are one of the favorites of the public thus far because of their high powered offense and the fact that they have covered easily in their games," said Art Manteris, vice-president of Station Casino’s Las Vegas Sports Books. "I had a few respected people tell me early on how high they were on the Saints, and wagers on season totals reflected so."

Station’s opened the Saints to win 9 games, under -135, and ended up closing 9 over -120. A huge variable in that total’s equation, the road games at Philadelphia and Buffalo, was answered when the Saints and Bills both destroyed the McNabb-less Eagles, making the early moves seem to have a huge edge at this juncture.

Last Sunday the Saints rolled into Buffalo and made it appear that it was a close game, and then reeled off a running attack that closed the game out like all top covering teams do. It wasn’t about Drew Brees throwing 300 yards plus, it was about total game control.

Next up for the Saints?

Could it be that we have a great match-up of two 3-0 teams this early in the season with the outspoken Jets traveling to New Orleans this week? Of all the defenses in the league, the Rex Ryan posse looks like the most vicious and angry among them. He’s brought on a persona and swagger that all the players are going along with.

Pro Football Moves of the Week

The Eagles opened Monday at -9½ as a circled game. By Sunday, Chiefs money came in enough to drop the line to -7. Kansas City was never in the game as Philly won easily 34-14.

The public drove the Saints up from a -4½ favorite Monday to a closing number of -6 after being at -6½ for some time. The Saints covered easily.

The Oakland Raiders opened as -1½ point favorite on Monday but Broncos money moved the line to Denver -2½ by kickoff. The move was correct as Denver smoked the hapless Raiders in front of their home crowd of creatures.

Dead Game: There was virtually no action one way or another on the side or total of the Browns/Ravens game last week.

Sports Books Tough Day on Sunday

"We had a lot of risk with some of the favorites early on with the parlay cards and off the board parlays," said South Point Director of Sports Bert Osborne. "If it weren’t for the Vikings not covering their -6½ point spread, it could have been a lot worse when dealing with all the favorite parlays played throughout the day.

"A lot of those big spreads came in on the early games," Osborne continued. "The Ravens, Patriots, Giants, and Packers covered and the public was also with the Jets."

Though support came from the public on a lot of the favorites, the sharp players didn’t have many plays this week. Two of the only sharp moves of the day were on the Titans getting +2 and +1½ at the Jets.

"The public did well against the books on Sunday," said Osborne. "When the Bears came in along with the Saints and Broncos in the late games, it didn’t set up a great position for the house going into the night game with the Colts and Monday’s game with the Cowboys."

Despite the line moving on the Cardinals at home, the public kept betting the Colts, who they had all just seen beat the Dolphins last week. The Cowboys were also an attractive team just because no one wants Jake Delhomme on their ticket, and also the fact that the Cowboys lost their opener in their new stadium. They couldn’t lose two in row at home, could they?

Two-pt conversion of the week

Pittsburgh opened as -4½ favorite and was bet down to -3½ EVEN by kickoff. In the late stages of the game, the Bengals scored making the game Steelers 20-15 and did the right thing in going for a 2-pt conversion, but when they failed, it gave the Steelers and their bettors a nice cover for the time being. And then the Bengals came back with a late drive and converted two fourth-down conversions, and scored the game winning touchdown.

Broncos Looking Good

Denver controlled the clock for 36 minutes and ran for 215 yards on offense while holding the Raiders to 137 yards total offense in their 23-3 win at Oakland. The win gave the Broncos the top rated defense in yardage and points allowed. Kyle Orton has yet to throw an interception, but the Bronco offense did have a turnover, their first of the season.