Brett Favre and Drama Reach New Heights; Saints-Vikings Game Middled in Las Vegas

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

It was a little over a month ago when everyone was wondering what was going to happen with the Brett Favre saga in Minnesota. Would he stay, or would he go? The Las Vegas sportsbooks played the game along the way, as Favre’s decision was unknown through multiple false reports of his intentions, adjusting a week one opening line that opened as far back as Apr. 29 with the Super Bowl champion Saints being a solid four-point home favorite to the Vikings in a rematch of the NFC title game.

The line got as high as 6 ½-points at many books as they bobbed and weaved through all the smoke signals and tweets of misinformation until finally settling at 4 ½ leading into this week. The public money came in support of the Saints early in the week with enough cash cumulatively to count for a worthy move to 5 and eventually 5 ½ by Wednesday.

Moving to 5 and 5 ½ was easy an easy move according to any standard bookmaking text because those are the deadest of all numbers. The loneliest of numbers in NFL margin of victory from one through eight is 5. In traditional bookmaking philosophy, because the number is so dead, it doesn’t even take a full limit wager to move off the number. It’s almost like if the tidal wave of action is coming -- which it looked like -- then get closer to -6 and let them lay that.

That standard bookmaking gets thrown out the window when a team misses an extra-point in a low-scoring game and then the same top drafted fantasy football kicker misses two easy field-goals. That’s exactly what happened in Thursday night’s kickoff to the 2010 NFL season when the Saints won by the deadest of all numbers, five, in a 14-9 victory over the Vikings.

Once the sportsbooks all got to -5 ½, the sharp Viking money started coming in almost as if they knew the number was key in this instance as opposed to all other games when it does mean nothing. Most of the books around town closed at -4 ½ or 5, but surprisingly even with most of the shops getting middled somewhat, the books still made out well because the total didn’t come close to going over the posted number of 48 ½, which basically eliminated a large portion of parlays.

By eliminating the predominant parlays heading into the weekend with either Vikings or Saints to the over, all the those funds tied to the 'over' into Sunday’s games went to the house. The only folks who made out collectively were the sharps.

Some of the risk that is still active lies with ties-win parlay cards where most of the city settled on the supposed dead number of “5” which is now active on both sides going into this weekend's college and pro football games. Bettors who played parlays off the board at -5 will get a push and reduce down, but nevertheless, they are still active as well which isn’t good for house since this was the most bet game of the week.

The Vegas sports ooks may have cashed in pretty large today despite the sharps siding them, but there is still considerable risk due to the results which will weigh heavily on the weekend decision. Should the likes of the Colts, Titans, Packers, Cowboys and Dolphins cover Sunday, the final losing tally for the books heading into Monday will be more than doubled what it would have been had there been a 3 or 7-point decision on Thursday night’s Saints game.

In more ways than ever thought, even from a betting perspective, Brett Favre brings drama to the table like no other.

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College Notes: Bowl Season Allows Players a Better Edge Against the Sports Books

College Notebook by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today Las Vegas

College Football officially moves into the Bowl season now and all the Nevada Sports Books are hard at work setting their lines. The Bowl games can be hit or miss with Books because they are isolated. The Books rarely lose, but when the figures are all added together from the duration of the first bowl game to the BCS Title game, the bettors have had years when they get the best of it.

On a normal College Football weekend there are dozens of games to choose from spanning the entire day. The majority of the bettors during bowl season bet on the day of the game, meaning they are now less likely to play four team parlays or higher which equates to better odds of the player winning.

Sports Books make a living off of feeding themselves with consistent losing parlays played by the public. The average Joe has his betting patterns changed from a strategy of shooting for the big win by betting small on parlays on a normal full schedule, to maybe betting a little more with less games.

So instead of playing that six team parlay – a huge house edge – the bettor now plays a straight bet or a side to total parlay at 13 to 5 odds. If Las Vegas had wagering restrictions like Delaware does – but in a reverse manner – and was only allowed to take straight bets, several Sports Books would close the doors.

Some people make investments and link several games together for all the Bowls, but the bulk of the action for the games will come on game day. The average Joe in Las Vegas wants to keep his cash on him as long as possible. He likes to bet the game before kickoff, root for his side and collect, all in the same day.

So in a way, the Bowl season itself actually allows the Public to do better whether they know it or not.

The Sharps are eagerly awaiting the initial line. Salivating is more like it. As professionals, they already have their lines set based on their rating and are ready to bet all they can on that opinion on whatever games the Sports Books have as the largest variance from their own number.

These guys usually do very well in the bowl season and it’s a good idea to watch the early line movement. Make a note to file on those games and use the moves as a tool when you eventually make your wager as the game gets closer.

The Sharps are coming off a season where they did really well. Most Nevada Sports Books had a great College Football season, but not on straight bets.

Next week, we’ll review a few of the best games and some of the early moves.

Fiesta Bowl

Even though the Fiesta Bowl BCS match-up of TCU-Boise State will turn out to be one of the better games, I don’t like how the College Football machine basically frowned upon each team by putting them together. It’s as if to say, "okay, you both made a BCS bowl from your non-BCS conferences, so go play it, and leave us alone."

The Fiesta Bowl did a great job by getting both undefeated teams because they know it will garner lots of attention. Being to say they are one of the only two Bowl games that have two undefeated teams is nice, but I would have rather seen an opportunity to have four undefeated teams at seasons end to help the cause in getting a playoff system going.

I would have also liked to have seen Boise State or TCU get the chance to play Florida. If either team would have beat a power like Florida, who was No. 1 ranked nearly all season, it would have really been a boost to their conference’s profile.

As it stands now, everyone wipes their hands clean of what had been a mounting thorn in the side of College Football and their perfect BCS system.

College Basketball Notes:

UNLV’s Good Run Great For Local Books

It’s apparent by how well UNLV played on the road last week that their win over Louisville was no fluke. They are a pretty good team, which will bode well for the Las Vegas Sports Books, in particular the local Books.

The excitement level of the Las Vegas locals is taken up a notch when the Rebels do well and for many, if they can’t be at the game itself, there is no better place to go watch the game than a Sports Book. Dozens will gather wearing their Rebel Red, cheering and chanting in unison.

The added boost in public excitement doesn’t necessarily transcend through write figures individually for the game, but the incremental walk-through traffic helps all areas of the casino that include table games, slots, restaurants and bars.

College Notebook: Football Winding Down While Big Hoop Matchups Begin

College Notebook by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today Las Vegas

Six college football teams remain unbeaten. After this weekend, there will be at least five with the possibility of four remaining going into the Bowl season. It’s very possible that at season’s end we could be looking at the most unbeaten teams since 1951 when four teams all ran the table.

Bowl invitations will begin to be officially announced following this week’s games, but the matchups for most of them appear to be nearly set with a few variations on what happens Saturday.

There are a lot of mediocre teams going bowling this season, but there is also the possibility of having some very intriguing match-ups, pairing both opposites and similar squads.

How does Nevada vs. Houston sound in the Hawaii Bowl, or BYU-Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl, or USC-Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl? Those all look like outstanding match-ups.

Here’s a look at this season’s possible BCS Bowl pairings:

Fiesta Bowl: Boise State appears to be set for a BCS Bowl invitation against Penn State or Iowa.

Sugar Bowl will feature the SEC title game loser, Alabama or Florida, against Cincinnati.

Orange Bowl will get the ACC title game winner, likely Georgia Tech, against TCU.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State is set to play the PAC-10 winner, either Oregon or Oregon State.

BCS Championship Game: Should Texas get by Nebraska this week, they’ll face the winner of the SEC title game, either Florida or Alabama.

A few upsets this week could drastically change the landscape. Should Texas lose, would that mean that TCU, a non-BCS conference team and highest ranked, would get the call to play either Florida or Alabama for the title?

Cincinnati has one last week to impress against a tough opponent in Pittsburgh while TCU is finished for the year. We’ve seen teams hop over ones that are idle following impressive wins and somehow that seems like the scenario that could occur this week.

But Texas can’t lose, can they?

Classless Pete Carroll

With 50 seconds remaining in Saturday’s UCLA-USC game, and the Trojans leading 21-7, USC Coach Pete Carroll said the game wasn’t over. Rather than kneeling down and running the clock, Carroll called for a deep post play running the score up to 28-7. In what had been a defensive struggle all night for both teams, the pass was the best thrown ball of the night for either side.

The move to run it up oddly comes one week after Carroll was irritated with Stanford’s Jim Harbaugh for doing something similar to USC the week before.

The crowds in the sports books loved it. While the sharps had bet UCLA +14 down to 12, most of the small money parlays had USC.

College Basketball Notes

Usually we have to wait until March to see great stories unfold with small-school squads taking down the powerhouses, but we’re already getting a preview of what’s to come with Portland who now has taken down Oregon, UCLA and Minnesota, bumping their record to 5-0 prior to their Sunday night game against No. 8 West Virginia.

The Las Vegas home crowd hasn’t been as deafening as it was Saturday against No. 16 Louisville since the 1980’s. Louisville came in as 2-point favorites and were beaten soundly for most of the game until making a late rally. The Rebels appear to have serious potential to be a major player in the scheme of things this year.

How about the week North Carolina has coming up. On Tuesday they welcome Michigan State and then fly to Lexington to play an equally tough foe in Kentucky. Both games rank as the top must-see battles of the week.

The Miami Hurricanes were expected to finish 10th in the ACC but are off to a 7-0 start despite the low expectations. They’ll be tested this week with a visit by Minnesota and a road game at Boston College.

Look out for Purdue in Big-10 play this season. They are a very sound fundamental team that should make some noise this season. They’ll be tested by Wake Forest on Tuesday.

What’s going on in Westwood? UCLA finds itself at the bottom of the Pac-10 in early season play with losses to Fullerton, Butler, Portland and Long Beach State. However, they can right the ship quickly this week. After a long week of rest, the Bruins will welcome top-ranked Kansas on Sunday.

Washington State’s guard Klay Thompson is leading the nation in scoring at 28.3 ppg and has led the Cougars to a 7-0 start, albeit against marginal opponents. He’ll be tested this week with tough road games at Gonzaga and Kansas State.

Watch every Tuesday for a brand new College Notebook article.