Week 8 NFL Betting Moves From Las Vegas Sports Books

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

More Favre Drama

Brett Favre is walking around Vikings headquarters on Thursday without his protective boot on and appearing to have no limp whatsoever. Reporters and team officials are all amazed at the speedy recovery from two fractures that occurred just last Sunday night at Green Bay. Vikings coach Brad Childress now looks like he doesn’t have the daunting task of telling Favre he has to sit, so in the process, now Favre can extend his cherished NFL record to 292 consecutive starts this week at New England.

What does that mean to the Las Vegas sports books in regards to the line? Absolutely nothing.

A few sports books have kept the game off the board this week until hearing more information on the injury, while other books have used the key word of “fractured ankle“ as enough info to comfortably keep up a line. Prior to the injury, the Patriots would have been a 4-point favorite. With the injury, the Patriots went to -5 and -6 at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book. Over at the Mirage, when the alert came out that Favre was probable, the Patriots went to -6 ½ and -7 (-105) as people are betting more favorably on the Patriots now that the injured Favre is playing.

Hilton Race and Sports Executive Director Jay Kornegay believes the Favre we’ll see this week will be a shadow of his former self.

“You’re looking at a Favre that’s maybe 80% this week of what he’s been this year so far. We’re essentially getting a Brett FAV this week,” Kornegay said jokingly leaving the “R” and “E” out in a reference to the diluted product the Vikings will have on the field this week.

It’s very probable that his entire show, without the boot on, for everyone to see Thursday was an attempt to garner support in his attempt to start game No. 292. It‘s like he‘s saying, “Hey everyone, look at me, I’m healthy....no limp, see.”

Why else would someone with a fractured ankle take off the boot until game day?

Based on the relative quiet nature of the line movement around town, it’s apparent that most books believe Favre’s ankle is not game ready.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants Odds Director Tony Sinisi sent the Favre probable alert to their clients with a recommendation of Patriots -6 ½.

“We’re treating this like a Favre “out” number,” said Sinisi. “Favre is going to be physically immobile and I expect their game plan to reflect that, taking much out of what Favre brings to the equation in a normal game out of this one.”

Sinisi also said he expects to see a bigger role this week out of running back Adrian Peterson.

That could be good news for Vikings supporters this week. Peterson routinely gets left out of plays called for him as Favre greedily audibles his own plays. A little less Favre and more Peterson could be just what the Vikings need to be competitive this week. 14 turnovers by Favre through six games isn’t acceptable for any NFL quarterback, not even a gimpy Favre.

A wounded, ego driven Favre, who is showing signs of his age, should do the right thing and sit after he takes the first series of snaps to keep his streak alive. Or better yet, just sit and allow Jackson to start the game and show his team that it’s not all about him and his personal records. But that surely won’t happen, because in Favre's eyes, it is all about him and no one else.

Cowboys May Be Fine Without Romo

There are other games of interest this week that don’t quite involve the drama of Favre, but have a much bigger impact than him in regards to the spreads beginning with Tony Romo and the Cowboys. Dallas would have been 11-point favorites with Romo playing this week against Jacksonville, but are now -6 ½ almost everywhere with him out.

We saw the Cowboys look miserable in 2008 when Romo missed three games going 1-2 with Brad Johnson at the helm, but I honestly believe John Kitna will perform better than that. I have a feeling that Kitna may even make the Cowboys a better, more balanced offensive attack, something we haven’t seen all year from Dallas.

Dallas definitely needs a boost of some kind and if they aren’t willing to fire Wade Phillips, the quarterback is a good place to start. Granted, Romo puts up good numbers in the box score, but the box score doesn’t reflect the timing of his bad decisions. When the Cowboys need Romo at his best in key moments this season, he has faltered. Laying the points looks like a good deal against the Jaguars 30th ranked defense.

49ers Start a New Mr. Smith

The San Francisco 49ers are 1-point favorites over Denver in their game being played at Wembley Stadium in London. The 49es will start Troy Smith this week against a shamed Broncos squad coming off a 59-14 beat down, on their home field, against the hated Raiders. Or maybe the Raiders aren’t hated anymore. Maybe Denver’s instilled hate for Oakland and their history against each other left with Mike Shanahan.

This weeks line is definitely a reflection of that blowout loss. The 49ers starting Troy Smith over David Carr while Alex Smith mends baffled many, but Jay Kornegay saw coach Mike Singletary’s logic in it.

“I was initially surprised, but I think Troy Smith’s mobility and similarities to Alex Smith’s game was the deciding factor and they can game plan similarly rather than chnage so much to accomodate Carr's style, “ said Kornegay. “David Carr just can’t move. My past memories of him playing, sad to say, are being sacked and turning the ball over.“

Kornegay leans towards the Broncos in this one stating that their last game was something that was a just a freak happening.

“Denver has been very consistent against every team they played up until last week and have played some of the their best ball away from Mile High stadium.”

Other NFL Moves
The Lions welcome back Matt Stafford this week and have been bet up from 2-point opening favorites to -2 ½ against the Redskins.

The Packers have found supporters coming off their big Sunday night win over the Vikings. The rested Jets opened as a 6 ½-point favorite and have been bet against to -6.

The Dolphins have found some believers in their road performances after going 3-0 thus year as they roll into Cincinnati. The Bengals opened a short 2 ½-point favorite and are down to -2.

San Diego still has some faithful out there that believe they are still very good at home as they moved from a -3 (even) to -3 ½ against the Titans. Vince Young is expected to play for the Titans, but maybe that’s why the bets came in.

The Saints resorted back to their old ways in a home loss to Cleveland last week. Following their week six 31-6 win at Tampa Bay, many us thought the Saints had figured it all out and they’d go on a run like they did in 2009, but the Browns said not so fast. This week they opened pick’em at home against the Steelers and have been bet up to -1 ½. Maybe the Saints just aren’t that good and are about to experience the same fate that many Super Bowl Champs have had over the last decade where they don’t make the playoffs the next year.

The Colts get to avenge their loss to the Texans with a rematch at home. They opened 5-point favorites and have been bet to -5 ½. I’ll side with Houston in this one just because of the key injuries the Colts have to deal with. How will Peyton Manning fare without his faithful and reliable outlet of Dallas Clark. He’ll also be without Austin Collie, Joseph Addai and probably Donald Brown too.

Since it’s a dead number, the best strategy is to wait until Monday to bet. Between the public loving the Colts and extended parlay risk coming from Sunday’s games, the Colts popularity and incurred liability figure to force a move higher. Don’t wait too long Monday though, because if the Sharps like it, the game will go to -4 just because -5 and -5 ½ is a quick number to move off of not requiring full limit bets to move.

Brett Favre and Drama Reach New Heights; Saints-Vikings Game Middled in Las Vegas

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

It was a little over a month ago when everyone was wondering what was going to happen with the Brett Favre saga in Minnesota. Would he stay, or would he go? The Las Vegas sportsbooks played the game along the way, as Favre’s decision was unknown through multiple false reports of his intentions, adjusting a week one opening line that opened as far back as Apr. 29 with the Super Bowl champion Saints being a solid four-point home favorite to the Vikings in a rematch of the NFC title game.

The line got as high as 6 ½-points at many books as they bobbed and weaved through all the smoke signals and tweets of misinformation until finally settling at 4 ½ leading into this week. The public money came in support of the Saints early in the week with enough cash cumulatively to count for a worthy move to 5 and eventually 5 ½ by Wednesday.

Moving to 5 and 5 ½ was easy an easy move according to any standard bookmaking text because those are the deadest of all numbers. The loneliest of numbers in NFL margin of victory from one through eight is 5. In traditional bookmaking philosophy, because the number is so dead, it doesn’t even take a full limit wager to move off the number. It’s almost like if the tidal wave of action is coming -- which it looked like -- then get closer to -6 and let them lay that.

That standard bookmaking gets thrown out the window when a team misses an extra-point in a low-scoring game and then the same top drafted fantasy football kicker misses two easy field-goals. That’s exactly what happened in Thursday night’s kickoff to the 2010 NFL season when the Saints won by the deadest of all numbers, five, in a 14-9 victory over the Vikings.

Once the sportsbooks all got to -5 ½, the sharp Viking money started coming in almost as if they knew the number was key in this instance as opposed to all other games when it does mean nothing. Most of the books around town closed at -4 ½ or 5, but surprisingly even with most of the shops getting middled somewhat, the books still made out well because the total didn’t come close to going over the posted number of 48 ½, which basically eliminated a large portion of parlays.

By eliminating the predominant parlays heading into the weekend with either Vikings or Saints to the over, all the those funds tied to the 'over' into Sunday’s games went to the house. The only folks who made out collectively were the sharps.

Some of the risk that is still active lies with ties-win parlay cards where most of the city settled on the supposed dead number of “5” which is now active on both sides going into this weekend's college and pro football games. Bettors who played parlays off the board at -5 will get a push and reduce down, but nevertheless, they are still active as well which isn’t good for house since this was the most bet game of the week.

The Vegas sports ooks may have cashed in pretty large today despite the sharps siding them, but there is still considerable risk due to the results which will weigh heavily on the weekend decision. Should the likes of the Colts, Titans, Packers, Cowboys and Dolphins cover Sunday, the final losing tally for the books heading into Monday will be more than doubled what it would have been had there been a 3 or 7-point decision on Thursday night’s Saints game.

In more ways than ever thought, even from a betting perspective, Brett Favre brings drama to the table like no other.

Get all your sports betting information at VegasInsider.com

Favre Still Playing Games, But Not on Vikings Practice Field

By Jon Saraceno, USA TODAY

Brett Favre believed it was over — finally — six months ago.

No more wondering.

No more offseason waffling.

No more skewering from the pundits.

Yes, the old, gray Viking was tired of being on the horns of a dilemma.

"I can remember walking off that podium with (wife) Deanna and my family thinking, 'I'm done,' " the Minnesota quarterback tells USA TODAY. "I mean, my heart … it was broken."

The New Orleans Saints had just administered a physical and psychological beating to the NFL's all-time passing leader who refused to submit. The Vikings' crushing 31-28 overtime defeat in the NFC championship game, where Favre whipped an interception in the closing seconds of regulation, left him with a swollen ankle and a severe thigh bruise the color of eggplant.

"People can talk about the ankle and my thigh and all that stuff, but those will mend. I just said, 'I can't take this. It's just too hard to digest."

Read More Here on the Continuing Favre Saga

Mike T's AFC/NFC Championship Picks: Saints Go Marching On - Teaser Pleaser

by Mike T.

I had a very average week in the divisional round going 3-3 putting me at 7-4 for the playoffs and 39-23 for the season. All season long I had three games to chose from a list of sixteen. During the playoffs I felt I should have an opinion on every game and even some totals. It's much harder to try and have an opinion on every game instead of just the ones you like. The only game I really loved last week was the Vikings and I wound up doing OK since I got even more Vikes early Sunday morning. This week there is one side that I like and one I just can't get a handle on. I did play both totals though so I just have three picks to make.


Jets at Colts over 40
This is the game I can't get a grip on. This game opened at Colts -7 and is now 8.5 or even 9 at some places. I don't like laying more than 7 and I don't like that it's almost 2-1 public money. Normally because of those two reasons I'd be all over the Jets but rookie QBs don't have much success in conference championship games. I do like this game to go over. I don't think the Jets will hold this Colts team to 14 on the road like they did with the Chargers. Peyton Manning will get this team in the endzone a few times. I also think the Jets will find a few ways to score some points. I did tease (first time this year) the Colts down to -2 in one bet and have them in a small parlay -8.5, but I like the over much more.
Colts 27 Jets 16

Saints -3.5 vs Vikings and under 54
I was back and forth on this game all week as well. The one X factor in this game I thought would be the Vikings pass rush. We saw them just abuse Romo (just as I thought) last week and I figureed if they bring that type of pressure on Brees they should win this game. Different story this week. DTs Pat Williams(elbow), Kevin Williams(knee) and DE Ray Edwards (knee) are all questionable. Now I do expect all of them to play this week of course but I doubt they'll all be as effective as the were vs Dallas. If Brees has a split second more time than Romo did, the Saints are gonna torch this team. I also think the Saints will win the turnover battle 2-1 which may be drive killers and keep this one under.
Saints 35 Vikings 17

I don't bet teasers often but I liked this a lot...

Colts -2
Over 33.5 in Jets/Colts
Saints +3
Under 60.5 Saints/Vikings

Vegas Early Moves: Steel Curtain Has Something For Peterson

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The biggest NFL game of the week has the undefeated Vikings (6-0) traveling to Pittsburgh (4-2), where the main storyline beyond all the Brett Favre hoopla, will be Adrian Peterson going against Dick LeBeau’s attacking run defense.

Peterson had a great game last week against a good Baltimore run defense pilling up 143 yards, but the Steelers may be a tougher task this week since Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 28 straight games.

The bettors obviously feel the same way since the opening line of -4 has been bumped up to -5 ½, with the total also dropping a half to 45.

“We had some varying opinions in the office with that game,” said Las Vegas Sports Consultants CEO Kenny White. “I had the game the highest at -4 and we settled at -3 ½ as our opener. Pittsburgh‘s a tough place to play, they’re physical, the Vikings just came off a game with another physical team in Baltimore, and Minnesota has been very lucky to be undefeated at this point.”

Evidence of White’s theory about the physical nature of playing back-to-back games with Baltimore and Pittsburgh taking their toll lies within the past history of teams playing these two traditionally good defenses. Since 2004, only the 2005 Bengals out of 13 occurences have won back-to-back games in consecutive weeks against the Steelers and Ravens.

Back to Back Games vs Ravens & Steelers Since 2004
Browns 2004 Lost both
Bengals 2004 Lost both
Giants 2004 Lost both
Eagles* 2004 Won vs. BAL, lost @PIT
Vikings 2005 Lost both
Bengals 2005 Won both
Titans 2005 Lost @PIT, won vs. BAL
Browns 2006 Lost both
Chargers 2006 Lost @BAL, won vs. PIT
Cardinals 2007 Lost @BAL, won vs. PIT
Browns 2007 Lost @PIT, won @BAL
Bengals 2008 Lost both
Browns 2008 Lost both
* The Eagles were undefeated coming into their matchup at Pittsburgh. Brad Childress, now the Vikings head coach, was their offensive coordinator.
Read More Here at VegasInsider.com

Brett Favre Saga is Finally Over: He is Officially a Viking

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. (AP) -Brett Favre is coming back for more.

The 39-year-old quarterback turned his back on retirement for the second time in as many years, agreeing Tuesday to play for the Vikings.

Favre took a morning flight on a team plane from Mississippi to Minnesota, arrived to cheering fans outside the team's practice facility and was in a helmet and pads less than 90 minutes later. His red practice jersey was the familiar No. 4, the same number he wore for years with the rival Green Bay Packers.

The team confirmed a deal was done to The Associated Press, but terms were not immediately disclosed.

This is Favre's second comeback. A year ago, he came out of a short retirement to join the Jets.
Favre had arthroscopic surgery to fix his throwing shoulder in May and three weeks ago told coach Brad Childress he would stay retired. The Vikings wrapped up training camp last week -

Favre was never a big fan of training camp - and beat Indianapolis 13-3 in their preseason opener Friday. They even got an encouraging performance from quarterback Sage Rosenfels, who has been competing with Tarvaris Jackson for the starting job.

All that goes out the window with Favre returning to add to a resume that already includes nearly every NFL career passing record.

His zinger of an arm and toughness in the pocket are a combination few possess. With an offense he says he could operate in his sleep, Favre seems to fit well with Minnesota - epecially given the Vikings' problems finding a reliable quarterback since Childress took over in 2006.

The Vikings have Pro Bowl players all over their roster, with reigning NFL rushing leader Adrian Peterson in the backfield and a dominant defensive line. No matter who's behind center, they ought to be in position to defend their NFC North title.

To win the conference, and perhaps that elusive Super Bowl, they'll need stability at the sport's most critical position.

Favre has wrestled with retirement for most of this decade and the will-he-or-won't-he saga became an annual offseason drama for the Packers, his longtime home. In Green Bay, the latest news elicted a few shrugs, little more.

A few months after Favre's tearful goodbye news conference in March 2008, Green Bay traded him to the Jets when he tried to come back, only to learn the Packers were committed to Aaron Rodgers. Favre started strong in New York, but faded down the stretch amid problems with his throwing arm and, with another ``I'm done'' announcement, headed for his second retirement.

The Jets released him from his contract right after the draft and soon after, the Vikings were openly expressing interest. Favre spent the summer working out in Mississippi and led everyone to believe he was on his way back to the NFL until last month.

``It was the hardest decision I've ever made,'' Favre told ESPN then. ``I didn't feel like physically I could play at a level that was acceptable.''
The next day, Childress was asked whether there was a chance the Vikings would still pursue Favre. He said: ``Not from my standpoint, no.'' Owner Zygi Wilf reiterated that pledge on the first day training camp.

And yet here comes Favre, who turns 40 in October and said last month he didn't think he had enough left to get through a full season.

``I had to be careful not to commit for the wrong reasons,'' Favre said then. ``I'm 39 with a lot of sacks to my name.''

He has a lot of interceptions to his name, too, more than any other quarterback in NFL history. The last time Favre appeared in the playoffs - a bitter loss at Lambeau Field by the Packers to the New York Giants in the NFC Championship game following the 2007 season - he put up one of his worst performances in recent memory.