NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Moves at Las Vegas Sports Books

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Twenty NFL teams are finished for the year, four are waiting for an opponent while on a bye week and eight slug it out to advance this weekend. It’s Wild Card week of the playoffs, a portion of the playoffs that is much unlike the divisional and championship rounds because the short underdogs have major value.

Upon the Las Vegas sportsbooks opening the lines, the Sharps sided with all of the underdogs with three of the four all getting three points. Much of the attraction has to do strictly with the value of “3” this season, a margin of victory that has landed 47 times this season totaling 18.5% of all games. It’s the highest total seen in the league for some time. Consider that just two years ago, only 28 games (10.5%) landed on this short margin.

The other factor is just how well short ‘dogs have done in this round. Since 1978, teams getting 1 to 3 points in the Wild Card round have gone 26-16-2 against the spread. And, home underdogs have gone a combined 11-3 in all Wild Card contests. The low spreads success rate may indicate that maybe too much respect is being given to the home team where the value is generally worth 3 to 3 ½ points in the rating.

Last year, the books had all four games hovering from minus-1 to minus-4 with all the home teams favored. One of the games, the Packers at Arizona, moved six points by kickoff with the Packers ending up being favored by 3-points. Three of the underdogs won outright, including Arizona, with only Dallas covering as a favorite.

This season we have a monster favorite like never seen before from a road team in the Wild Card. The Saints opened as 10-point favorites over Seattle and were quickly bet up to minus-10 ½, but it’s been two-way action since with the line hopping back and forth between the two numbers over at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

This game against the 7-9 Seahawks fits the Saints profile perfect as they have beaten only two teams this season that had winning records. They beat the Seahawks in Week 11 as an 11-point favorite 34-19 at home, but along the way have fell into lapses like losing to Cleveland, Arizona and nearly losing to the Panthers.

Seattle meanwhile comes in with a solid conservative effort in a must-win game against the Rams with backup quarterback Charlie Whitehurst leading the way for only their second win in their last seven played. The team they beat over that span was the Panthers. This week, however, Seattle will be going back with Matt Hasselbeck, who engineered many of those losses despite Whitehurst being a bit more mobile.

The first two large bets in the Jets-Colts games were on the Jets getting plus-3 and then plus-3 (-125) before settling at Colts minus-2 ½. The Jets were in the same position last season in this round at Cincinnati and won outright. They then won at San Diego as large 7-point underdogs before losing 30-17 at Indianapolis in the AFC Championship game as 7 ½-point underdogs.

During the second half of the season, Peyton Manning just hasn’t looked like himself throwing 15 of his 17 interceptions from Week 9 on. Part of that has been getting used to life without targets Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. The other part has been an injury riddled running back corps. Running back Joseph Addai and the gang are back and probably healthier than ever right now, but Collie and Clark remain out.

Who would have ever thought there would be a time when Manning was quarterbacking at home during the playoffs where we could lay a field goal or perhaps less at kickoff?

There were some early plays on the Chiefs as Sharps were playing the value of the number and home underdog trends, but after going to Ravens minus-2 ½, money came in on the Ravens pushing the number back to minus-3. It’s been teetering back and forth ever since going from even money to flat with more Chiefs money.

These are two teams that are playing well at the moment with the Chiefs winning five of their last seven while the Ravens have won six of their last seven. The Ravens are riding high right now and have been one of the better road playoff teams in recent playoff history. The Chiefs come limping in after getting destroyed by the Raiders in Week 17. True, it was a meaningless game, but come on, it was the hated Raiders. The timing of Charlie Weiss announcing he was going to make a lateral move as offensive coordinator for Florida sure sounds like a correlation for their flat play last week.

The game of the week, or at least sexiest, is Green Bay visiting Philadelphia for a Week 1 rematch where the whole Michael Vick re-birth began after linebacker Clay Matthews knocked then starting QB Kevin Kolb out of the game. The Packers won 27-20, but not before Vick gave us glimpse of what was about to do this season. Vick had the Packers defense off balance in the second half.

The Eagles opened minus-3 (EVEN) and Packers money came in dropping the line to minus- 2 ½ (-120). Most of the Las Vegas sportsbooks have the game at either 2 ½ flat or money tied to it, but the Hilton and Mirage both have the Eagles at minus-3 (EVEN).

I still haven’t decided who I’m going to take in these games as a case can be made for all, but I have to have at least some kind of action on them. You can’t just watch a football game with nothing riding on it. Fantasy football is over, so I can’t even resort to that. My first instinct is to take the Ravens who are basically the road warriors in the playoffs. However, the home underdog stat has me doubting the pick. My other instincts say take the Saints, Packers and Jets, but I could probably be talked out of each game.

As for the public and early ticket counts, it’s all on the Ravens, Packers, Saints and Colts, in that order. The early week plays are usually a good indicator of what the overall public consensus is. However, about 95% of the action for these games will come Friday night through Sunday. The Packers late game Sunday will be a tough spot for the sportsbooks, who will have all that weighted play parlayed into the final game, even if two of the other three games turn out well for them.

Super Bowl Futures
For those looking to play futures to win the Super Bowl or Conferences, my advice is to just bet the money line on the team all the way, rolling the money over weekly. In some cases, it’s not as easy for people to get bets down weekly which is why they take the set future odds as a matter of convenience. But for those looking to get maximum value on your team, taking the set price almost never equals out to what a certain team would pay if just rolling the money over weekly. Do the math on potential matchups in each conference and you’ll see that rolling the money over is the best way to increase your bankroll and value.

Should the set price then be greater than what the math shows, then that should be the only time to bet a Super Bowl future. But that rarely happens because most sports books build in a 20% or higher theoretical hold for this round of 12 teams that always gives the edge to the house. There are some instances where books will inflate certain teams to attract action due to liability from the course of the season, but it still rarely goes beyond the true odds.

The fairest future odds in Las Vegas for all sports with low hold percentages are always at the Hilton, M Resort & Spa and Lucky’s.

Mike T's Super Bowl Picks: Winners all Season and Looking to Close a Winner

by Mike T.

It comes down to this. The two best teams all year are now finally going to face off in what should be an epic shoot out. With all the money coming on the Colts for the first 10 days or so the Saints money is now coming in. So, if you liked the Saints you probably should have taken them 2 or 3 days ago when you could have gotten them at 5.5 or even 6. If you like the Colts you may want to wait close to game time where you might see 4 again.

Stats. Stats. Stats. There is a statistic or a trend for just about everything you can think of in order to decide which side you want to take. Saints 6-1-1 in their last 8 on grass, Colts 9-1-1 in their last 11 on grass. Both teams started 13-0, both teams were 7-1 on the road. The list goes on and on and on. In the end there is something or a few things that seems to stick out the most and will probably be the deciding factor in which way you go. I have mine and here they are.

The first thing I thought just like most people did is that the Colts looked really impressive in their wins over the Ravens and Jets while The Saints had to go to overtime to beat the Vikes. It made me wonder what the line would be right after the NFC conference game was over. Not what it should be but what it would be. Considering public's perception and memory I figured the Colts would be 3 point favorites and it wouldn't move much. After a couple days seeing the money pouring in on the Colts at almost 3-1 I started (again) thinking what the line should be.

When looking at these two teams over the entire season and not just the last game or two there is no doubt in my mind that this game should be a pick'em. Nothing more, nothing less. Therefore, getting the Saints at anything above 3 points is huge value on a neutral field.

Now anyone who's followed my picks all year has noticed that I like to take dogs in good spots so it's only fitting that I end the year with a dog. I guess this is the point where I have to throw out some stat or trend to back up my selection. There are two that I like best. The first is the Saints defense was 2nd overall this year with 39 turnovers and a +11 ratio while the Colts were just +2. The second stat is the Colts were 30th in the league on 3rd down defense. Now some say they play a bend but don't break style and that's why they give up a lot of 1st downs. That may be true but the Saints will get in the endzone often if the Colts play that style of D this Sunday.

I like this one to be a classic shoot out with the Saints winning the turnover battle and ultimately the game.

Saints 42 Colts 38

I also took a few props...
I have Brees to score the 1st TD at 18-1
I have the Saints to score exactly 42 points at 40-1
and the Saints to score exactly 48 and 49 points ( two bets) both at 80-1

I loved under 8 punts for the game when it opened and it was +110 but when I got there it was -190.
I also missed out on over 76 total points at 16-1 it was 4-1 when I got to the window. Oh well.

WHO DAT!

Super Bowl Notes Through Friday: Props and Betting Notes From Las Vegas

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Trying to find a few props I feel most comfortable with was tough searching through the 350 props that the Las Vegas Hilton offered. However, I found a few I do like just based on what I have seen this season, not taking a shot at middles of some of the free money out on scalps.


The player I have been looking at is Joseph Addai and what I believe his role will be in the game. All season long, Addai has been just good enough and reliable enough to show that the Colts can run the ball a few times to try and keep the defenses honest by showing the run.

He didn’t have a 100 yard game all season. In fact, his high for the regular season was 79 yards in Week 13. His season-high including the postseason was 80 yards against the Jets in the AFC Title game.

In 12 of his 17 games played this season, Addai rushed for less than the posted total of 65 ½ at the Hilton. In seven of those instances, Addai rushed for less than 50 yards.

Another note to keep track of is that back-up Donald Brown is healthy and when Addai had his best rushing games of the season in Week 13 and 14, Brown was out.

Brown was an intricate part of the Colts offense before getting hurt in Week 7. Over the same span, Addai didn’t crack higher than 64 yards in any game.

I would expect to see Brown be more of impact for the Colts Sunday and give the Saints a look the Colts haven’t shown for a few months. If Brown does see more action as I expect, the Addai prop numbers on the 'under' will all come in easily.

Should Brown stay in the six carries range like he’s been the last few weeks, I still like the 'under' on most of Addai’s rushing props.

Another prop available is the longest rushing attempt by Addai, set at 12 ½ yards. This is a volatile prop that could go either way, such as the Colts being in a third and long situation with a draw gaining 14 yards, but still having to punt.

Addai’s longest run of the year was 21 yards. Five times Addai had a game with less than a 12-yard rushing attempt. I lean to the 'under' on this prop.

The one prop that I do like Addai to do well in is for him to score a touchdown. When the Colts get inside the 5-yard line, the ball usually goes to Addai and somehow he always comes through. He had 10 rushing touchdowns in 15 regular season games this season with an additional three receiving.

Read More Here....

Super Bowl Betting Hasn't Quite Heated Up Yet, Landslide expected Saturday and Sunday

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Super Bowl XLIV betting has been steady at the Las Vegas Sportsbooks with ticket counts showing up at a little higher than 5 to 2 in favor of the Colts. Just about every sportsbook in town has the Colts as 5.5-point favorites with a few variations on the total from 56 to 57.


We haven’t seen anything yet though. Over 95% of all wagers on the game will be made Saturday and Sunday of this week and that will be where the telling sign is to where this game will go. So far on a small sample ratio, the Colts appear to be that team.

And why not? They have been the most consistent team all season seemingly unfazed where they play, what surface the game is on, and don’t even blink if they find themselves in a deficit.

The Saints on the hand have many in the general public asking themselves if they are in the Super Bowl merely because of the home field advantage they had in the Superdome for the NFC title game where they looked to have been outplayed.

Had this game been in early November, the Saints would likely be the team with a 5 to 2 ticket count ratio. They were peaking at that juncture and looked to be unstoppable but then came the stretch run and they ran out of gas in the final furlong losing three straight as the playoffs began.

Fortunately for the Saints, they do have a little recent history on their side. Remember the dreadful 80’s and early 90’s Super Bowls that saw blowouts every year with NFC teams dominating?

Ever since Denver knocked off the Packers as an 11-point underdog, the Super Bowls have been pretty entertaining for the most part.

Read More Here............

Super Bowl Is Set: Vegas Bettors Immediately Jump on Colts

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The stage is set!


The Super Bowl now has its two contestants and it couldn’t be more appropriate that it comes down to the two best teams in the league. Both the Colts and Saints matched each other win for win throughout the regular season without a loss through Week 13 and now they’ll match up in what has become a rarity in pro football, the top teams from each conference facing each other.

The No. 1 seeds from each conference will square off for the first time in the Super Bowl since 1993 when the Bills played Dallas. The matchup on paper looks to be one of the better ones in years matching up the Saints and Colts passing offenses against each other.

There is also plenty of intrigue in the game led by the story of this being the Saints first trip to the Super Bowl ever. Peyton Manning will be making his second visit to the Super Bowl, a game won in Miami, the site of this year’s game. In fact, now, all four of the Colts Super Bowl games will have been played in Miami.

Then there’s the story of Manning growing up in New Orleans who is the son of Saints legend Archie Manning. We’ll have two weeks to sift through all the Super Bowl stories and hype, but the top immediate story rests with the Las Vegas line; what was offered to the public and how they responded.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent a recommendation with the Colts as a 4-point favorite and a total of 52. The Las Vegas Hilton was the first Las Vegas Sports Book to offer the Super Bowl posting the Colts at -4, but bumped their initial total offering to 56.

Read More Here.....

AFC-NFC Championship Game Line Moves From Las Vegas

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Action has been good thus far in Las Vegas Sports Books for this weekends Championship games, but the sharp money hasn’t shown its hand yet. Most of the action coming in has been small money from the public with a wide array of opinions.


Ticket counts at a few different properties indicate the type of betting patterns and action that will magnify about 90% more over the weekend, but it’s a good sample ratio of what’s to come, minus the sharp money.

The Colts are trending at about a 9-to-5 edge in overall tickets written. Some books are reporting that this game is similar to what we see every year in the Super Bowl, laying the points with the favorite and taking the money line with the 'dog.

Over at the Las Vegas Hilton, they opened the game Sunday with the Colts a 7-point favorite and a standard money line of Colts minus-330 with a very generous take back of plus-270. As the game moved to 7 ½, so did the money line, peaking at -400/+330.

Read More Here on VegasInsider.com

Here's a few tidbits of past history regarding the Championship games:

Since 1970, 62% of all games (78) have been won by 11 points or more showing that when it comes down to all the marbles, one team goes for the throat while the other plays beneath the level that got them there.

In reference to Championship game points spreads and how those teams have finished that are similar to this weeks lines, you can see that the Colts have history on their side, not just winning, but covering the spread as well. Teams that were favored by 7 to 9.5-points are 14-4 against the spread.

Things are a little more competitive with the Vikings-Saints game, and how history relates to that spread. Teams that have been have been favored by 3.5 to 6.5-points in this round have gone 12-12-2 against the spread. The tightness of the number and team rating, minus the standard 3-point home-field advantage, basically make these pick 'em games.

In New Orleans case, the home field advantage -- one of the leagues better home edges -- is worth an extra half-point. So essentially the game is a tossup between the two best teams in the NFC, being played in a hostile environment. The big questions is, how much of a difference will the crowd make?

Overall, home teams vs the spread are 44-32-2 all-time. 


Current Line Through Friday Afternoon offered by the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 @ New Orleans Saints - Over/Under Total 52
New York Jets +7.5 @ Indianapolis Colts - O/U Total 39.5

Jets Win Over Chargers Makes Rex Ryan's Prediction Near Fruition

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

In almost a near repeat of Wild Card weekend, the first three Divisional Playoff games last weekend were snoozers with little drama. Then the weekend finale came Sunday evening and reminded us all why we love the NFL so much.


The Jets 17-14 win as 9.5-point underdogs at San Diego doesn’t match the shootout of the Packers-Cardinals with scores, but it topples that Wild Card game by being a major upset and unveiling this seasons Cinderella story.

No one believed Rex Ryan two weeks ago when a reporter asked him what he thought about the Jets 50 to 1 odds to win the Super Bowl and he replied that they should be the favorite because they have the No. 1 defense and the No. 1 running game.

Just about everyone laughed. But so far, we know the Bengals and Chargers aren’t laughing as they’ve experienced first hand what a good combination those two features are in the playoffs.

MGM-Mirage Race and Sports Book Director Jay Rood likes what the Jets are doing, but can’t be faulted if he doesn’t root for them.

“Of the four teams remaining, we do the worst with the Jets on Futures (to win the Super Bowl),” said Rood, “Maybe we all should have listened to Rex Ryan a little closer.“

The Jets supposed weakness in rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez has been somewhat of a strength during the playoffs. Under the Jets style of play, Sanchez only has to make a few passes, and must protect the ball, which he has done.

Sanchez’s second straight playoff win has already tied him with Hall of Famer Joe Namath in career playoff wins and has matched what Joe Flacco did last season with Baltimore as a rookie.

Baltimore happened to be where Rex Ryan was coaching last season before getting his first head coaching job with New York. While some grumbled when Ryan chose Sanchez to be the starter during pre-season, Ryan knew the job could get done by witnessing how the Ravens protected Flacco in a similar situation under their offensive scheme.

Read More Here on VegasInsider.com


Click Here: NFC Championship Game History with Lines & Totals

Roberts Week 8 Pro Football Selections: Time to go Against Colts & Saints

49ers +13 @ Indianapolis: The Colts have been riding high but their running into a 49ers squad that is getting little respect from the public in this game. The proper line for this game should be 8 or 8.5. Anytime you can get value that high with a dog crossing over 10 points and into the 13 area, it's a good play. We're not talking about the Bucs, Browns, Lions, Rams, or Chiefs here, we're talking about a solid 49ers squad that plays good defense and can move the ball.

Titans -3 vs Jaguars: Regardless of Vince Young starting, the Titans running game will be what gets them the win this week. If Young can use his legs more and pass less avoiding turnovers, the Titans should win this game by at 13. Look for Chris Johnson to have a big day against the poor Jacksonville run defense.

Giants -1 @ Eagles: The Eagles opened up a 3-point favorite but the G-men are getting the money, as they should be. Eagles had a short week with their Monday night win while the Giants come in on a two game losing streak. A big bonus for the Giants may be that WR Mario Manningham, and his dropped passes, may be limited giving Hakeem Nicks more playing time and opportunities to score in his fifth straight game. Perfect spot for the Giants.

Panthers +10 @ Arizona: Jake DelHomme was given a vote of confidence amid cries from the Charlotte folks to pull him after throwing 13 picks thus far. The last time he faced the Cardinals he threw five interceptions in the playoffs. Just because the entire universe and logic shows the Cardinals should expose DelHomme again, it looks like getting point in this game is the right side. Proper line on this game is -7.5. look for DelHomme and Steve Smith to have their best day of the year.

Falcons +11 @ Saints: Wait until Monday to bet because the line will go much higher. Proper line for this game is -6 or -6.5, but due to the nature of betting patterns and payouts with the Saints, their line is over-inflated. The Falcons are a good football team, not one of these also-rans who should be getting double digit points. The crowd will be electric, but last years division champs will have something for the Saints on Monday. Possible upset and worth a money line play.