FREE NFL Week 4 Picks: Panthers to beat Bucs fifth straight time

Panthers usually handle Tampa Bay and should again on Sunday. 

Line: Carolina -3 (-120), Total: 40
Time: 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Panthers have had an easy go of it, getting off to a 3-0 start against teams with issues. By no means have they looked great, which is why they’re laying just a field goal at Tampa Bay this week. But they do just enough to get the job done, and that should be enough to beat the Bucs for the fifth straight time (3-1 ATS).

The past three meetings have stayed UNDER, and that looks to be the way to go here as well. Carolina has stayed UNDER in 10 of its past 12 against the NFC South, and the Bucs have stayed UNDER in 11 of their past 13 overall.

The plays are Panthers -3 and UNDER 40.

Predicted score: Panthers 20-10

More Free NFL Picks here from the Linemakers.com.......selections on 9 games

NFL Week 3 Betting Moves from Las Vegas

Jets are way over-inflated this week against Eagles.

LAS VEGAS -- Last week I talked about some overreactions to the Week 1 results which appeared to give value to a few underdogs in Week 2, five of which ended up not only covering the game, but also winning outright.

This week, the role has been reversed where a couple of underachieving 0-2 public favorites aren't laying as big a price that was posted at CG Technology books in April or at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook in its early Week 3 lines posted last Wednesday.

From the sports books point of view, they aren't just posting raw ratings. In addition to adjusting each teams' actual rating weekly, they also have to handicap what side the public will gravitate to, which is an art to itself. It's a case of supply and demand, and they're going to make you lay a larger price on teams you like and more against teams you're down on.

Last week the books knew the public hated Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Washington, Jacksonville and Oakland and all five underdogs ended up winning outright. It was one week after the public did very well picking against those same teams, and all the money they had won they gave right back to the books in Week 2.

The big difference this week in where the value rests is with a few of the popular 0-2 teams that are sitting at cheap prices. The public has been burned two weeks in a row by the Eagles, Colts and Ravens and they're ready to stick a fork in them forgetting about the reasons they were so high on them coming into the season.

The masses of public bettors are a fickle crew with their own “Zig-Zag Theory” that more times than not zags them out of a winning week. And the books know how to appeal to those public trends and reel them in like an unsuspecting trout. Sharps on the other hand, know the books' strategy and they take advantage of the numbers that have been over-modified and it's why you'll see them usually win when the books do.

The most shocking movement of a team rating from preseason to Week 3 is what has happened with the Eagles, who were bumped up almost three-points after blowing everyone out in the first three exhibition games. But after looking nothing like that preseason offensive monster in losses to Atlanta and Dallas, they're actually below the rating they started with in the preseason. It's a rapid adjustment and part of it is to handicap what the public is feeling, and right now they feel the Eagles are phony. They loved Philly the first two weeks, but they hate them now.

On the other side, you've got the Jets coming off an impressive win at Indianapolis on Monday night, and they get a bump up in the rating just because that defense figures to give plenty of teams problems all season long.

Last week the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Philadelphia as a 3 ½-point road favorite against the Jets in their early lines. After Monday night's game, the Jets were -2.5 and down to -2 on Friday. That is a massive adjustment for just one week. And the public doesn't care as their parlay action is on the New York Jets.

Read More Here for all the line moves.......VegasInsider.com

NFL Week 2 Selections: Patriots to handle Buffalo

Patriots should take care of business on Sunday at Buffalo.

Line: New England -1, Total: 45

The road team in this rivalry has been covering consistently over the past decade at a 14-6 ATS clip. The Bills’ 27-14 home victory as 1-point dogs over the Colts was impressive, but can they get as hyped this week as they were for that game? This looks like a let-down spot for Buffalo after beating the co-favorites to win the AFC. This week they play the other AFC co-favorite, the Patriots. It would be quite a statement for Buffalo to take both teams out in the first two weeks, but it’s hard to see that happening.

The price is cheap on the world champs, who have been at their best against winning teams, with a 10-3 ATS record over the past 13 instances. A case could easily be made for the Patriots to be 3-point favorites here. Pats -1.

Predicted score: Patriots 27-16

Read More Predictions Here....TheLinemakers.com

Mike T's Week 4 Pro Football Picks

by Mike T.

The first few weeks of the season I usually try to find some dogs to cover or win outright. Last week I had a tough time trying to find three of them and wound up going 1-2 putting me at 5-4 for the season. This is another tough week for me to try and find some dogs. There are 8 games that have the favorite laying a touchdown or more. With that said I only have one small home dog this week.

Miami +1 vs BuffaloChad Pennington's injury makes Miami a home dog. This doesn't seem to be as much of an issue as most would think Pennington has thrown for just over 400 yards with 1 TD, 2 ints, and a fumble lost in three games. Not exactly the type of numbers that would scare a defense. Dolphins QBs aren't asked to do much with their running game and the Wildcat. The Bills will be going without their Starting MLB and their two starting safeties. I expect to see a heavy dose of running from Brown and Williams keeping the Bills O of the field.
Miami 24 Bills 17

Cincinnati -5 1/2 at Cleveland
This is the first favorite that I am taking this year. Here we have two teams headed in opposite directions. The Browns may be the worst team in the league right now, while the Bengals seem for real and if they are these are the type of games they have to win. The Browns have one of the worst running attacks and with injuries to three linemen and a doubtful Jamal Lewis it will be even harder to run the ball. The Bengals have a nice balance on offense and should have their way with the Browns.
Cincinnati 27, Cleveland 13

Saints -7 vs JetsThe Jets are coming into a very loud and energetic Superdome without CBs Lito Sheppard and Donald Strictland. CB Darrelle Revis is also nursing a hammy but will go. That can't be good for them. This game kind of reminds me of the '85 Bears-Dolphins Monday night game. Buddy Ryan's 46 defense vs Marino's high powered offense. Fast forward a quarter century and we see Rex Ryan's blitz happy D vs Brees' use the whole field O. This game may be close for a quarter or two but in the end I think the Saints are going to roll. With the Jets thin secondary Brees will eventually find guys wide open in mismatches. I do think the Saints will win by two scores or more but I just don't like laying 7 or more. I'm going with the over in this one
Saints 38 Jets 24

Week 1 Upsets and Surprise Teams

by Mike T.

Every year starting week 1 we always see some surprises. Teams like Mia, Atl, and Balt come to mind when thinking about teams that most wouldn't expect much from in '08. This happens every year and will again this year. The Dolphins went 1-15 in the '07 season and turned it around in '08 finishing 11-5. The '07 Falcons(4-12) and the 5-11 Ravens both finished 11-5 in '08.

The first few weeks of the year is a great time to look for upsets, money lines, dogs that can cover or simply surprise teams. I do this every year and more often than not do pretty well.

Who will it be this year?

Two teams that seem to stick out to me are the Seahawks and the Bengals. The Seahawks underachieved in Holmgrens last season but I believe they as well as the 49ers will not let the Cards run away with the division this year. I expect Hasselbeck to bounce back after being injured much of last season. The addition of TJ Houshmandzadeh in FA and draft picks LB Aaron Curry and C Max Unger should all be key contributors immediately. They should have a solid run game behind a good OL and their is still a lot of talent on defense.

As for the Bengals, maybe I watched to much "Hard Knocks" but I believe that this team has a lot of talent. Sure they lost TJ but acquired L. Coles still have #85 (you can say that # in any language you like) and C. Henry tore it up in preseason. They have a stable of RBs and picked up FB B. Leonard. Rookie ILB Ray Maualuga will make an immediate impact on a pretty talented defense.

That said, I won't take either of these two teams in week one as they are both favorites. So let's get to the dogs that I like.

Jacksonville +7 at the Colts
We all know how good the Colts offense is but, the defense goes from slightly above average to poor when Bob Sanders is out. Well, he's out. The Jags like to run the ball and they do it well. The Colts did very little in the offseason and during the draft to beef up the defense. I can see the Jags having a big day on the ground while keeping Peyton on the sidelines. I'm also not ready to write off Tory Holt. I think he has a few more 80+ catch seasons left in him and it may be time for 5th year WR Troy Williamson to have a breakout year.
Jax 27 Ind 24

Tampa Bay +6 vs Dallas
The Cowboys did almost nothing in the offseason.They lost T.O. and picked up Jon Kitna in FA and that's about it. They didn't have a pick in the draft until the 3rd round and while they did have multiple picks in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th, I don't see any of them getting much playing time right away. That's not to say that some of them won't be stars in the near future, just not the first few weeks. Tampa lost a few players in FA but replaced them with better talent in the off season. The addition of Derrick Ward to go along with Cadillac and Graham makes this a great RB rotation. Antonio Bryant had a break out year and new arrival KWII may be enough O for the Bucs. They added two defensive linemen on day one of the draft to an already solid defense. I like the home dog in this one.
Tampa 23 Dallas 21

Miami +4 at Atlanta
I'm kind of torn between a few teams that may pull out a money line win for me. I think the 49ers may have a shot against the Cards. I really want to pull the trigger on Cleveland over the Vikes, but I think I'm going to go with the Dolphins over the Falcons in week 1. These are two teams headed in the right direction. They both had nice off seasons in FA and the draft. For some reason though I have to go with Miami. I think they will try to keep Matt Ryan off the field as much as they can with a strong running game. A lot of new faces on defense for the Falcons may still need a week or two to fully understand the system. I also think Pennington will make fewer mistakes than sophomore Ryan.
Miami 26 Atlanta 16