Free NFL Week 3 Plays: Colts to bounce back at Tennessee

Lots of good games on the board to jump on this week. 

Colts at Tennessee

In a situation similar to Philly's, the Colts' rating has come crashing down after an 0-2 start. Indy backers can lay a generous -3 (-120) against a Titans squad they have won and covered against seven straight times. Yes, the Colts offensive line is worse than we thought coming into the season, but they are still 9.5-points better than the Titans on a neutral field. If we give Tennessee +3 for home field, the spread should be Colts -6.5, which makes laying only a field goal very cheap.

Despite the bargain created by the overreaction, public bettors will be skeptical of laying any amount of points after losing on Indy in the first two weeks. That’s understandable, but let’s not ignore the data we had coming into the season that made Indy co-favorites to win the AFC. That team is still in the locker room, and we should expect to see that real Colts squad Sunday. Colts -3 (-120) is the play.

Predicted score: Colts 27-14

Get More Free NFL Week 3 Picks Here......TheLinemakers.com

NFL Week 3 Betting Moves from Las Vegas

Jets are way over-inflated this week against Eagles.

LAS VEGAS -- Last week I talked about some overreactions to the Week 1 results which appeared to give value to a few underdogs in Week 2, five of which ended up not only covering the game, but also winning outright.

This week, the role has been reversed where a couple of underachieving 0-2 public favorites aren't laying as big a price that was posted at CG Technology books in April or at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook in its early Week 3 lines posted last Wednesday.

From the sports books point of view, they aren't just posting raw ratings. In addition to adjusting each teams' actual rating weekly, they also have to handicap what side the public will gravitate to, which is an art to itself. It's a case of supply and demand, and they're going to make you lay a larger price on teams you like and more against teams you're down on.

Last week the books knew the public hated Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Washington, Jacksonville and Oakland and all five underdogs ended up winning outright. It was one week after the public did very well picking against those same teams, and all the money they had won they gave right back to the books in Week 2.

The big difference this week in where the value rests is with a few of the popular 0-2 teams that are sitting at cheap prices. The public has been burned two weeks in a row by the Eagles, Colts and Ravens and they're ready to stick a fork in them forgetting about the reasons they were so high on them coming into the season.

The masses of public bettors are a fickle crew with their own “Zig-Zag Theory” that more times than not zags them out of a winning week. And the books know how to appeal to those public trends and reel them in like an unsuspecting trout. Sharps on the other hand, know the books' strategy and they take advantage of the numbers that have been over-modified and it's why you'll see them usually win when the books do.

The most shocking movement of a team rating from preseason to Week 3 is what has happened with the Eagles, who were bumped up almost three-points after blowing everyone out in the first three exhibition games. But after looking nothing like that preseason offensive monster in losses to Atlanta and Dallas, they're actually below the rating they started with in the preseason. It's a rapid adjustment and part of it is to handicap what the public is feeling, and right now they feel the Eagles are phony. They loved Philly the first two weeks, but they hate them now.

On the other side, you've got the Jets coming off an impressive win at Indianapolis on Monday night, and they get a bump up in the rating just because that defense figures to give plenty of teams problems all season long.

Last week the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Philadelphia as a 3 ½-point road favorite against the Jets in their early lines. After Monday night's game, the Jets were -2.5 and down to -2 on Friday. That is a massive adjustment for just one week. And the public doesn't care as their parlay action is on the New York Jets.

Read More Here for all the line moves.......VegasInsider.com

Las Vegas sports books bounce back in week 2

Mandalay Bay sports book fared well Sunday.

LAS VEGAS -- When Week 2 NFL opening numbers were posted at the beginning of last week, it was apparent that there was luxury tax placed on a few of the teams that beat the sports books in Week 1.

The books knew who the public was going to play, and they set numbers against their emotion, and played it brilliantly to a winning week.

"We had a house player on the Steelers pretty heavy," said MGM Resorts Vice President of Race and Sports Jay Rood, referring to the Steelers easy 43-18 win as six-point home favorites over the 49ers, "but it turned out to be a good day for us."

CG Technology VP of risk management, Jason Simbal, said their books had a good day as did Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. Every book was in the black and most of it was based on the public riding the teams hard that fared well last week believing what they saw last to be gospel.

They laid more points than they should have on overpriced teams like New Orleans, Tennessee, Baltimore, Miami, and St. Louis, much to the delight of the books.

One of the few games where the public was correct on was the Patriots, who had moved to a 2-point underdog at Buffalo, and won 40-32. Rood said his MGM books had taken sharp action on the Bills, but that it was one-sided with public parlay money on the Patriots.

Read More Here......VegasInsider.com

Mike T's Week 3 NFL Selections: Who needs Reggie Bush, Saints Roll

by Mike T.

I'm off to a slow start at 1-5 but I'm looking to rebound this week. I usually only like three or four games in a week but their are five I just can't stay away from.

Saints -3.5 vs Falcons
Is Reggie Bush really worth a touchdown? I ask because in the two games last year the Saints were a ten point and an eleven point favorite in each game. Fast forward a year and the Superbowl champs are only laying 3.5 at home? This line seems wrong to me by a touchdown. If all it took was the Falcons to blowout a bad team at home and the Saints offense to struggle a little against two very good defenses for me to get an extra touchdown in value I'm all over it.
Saints 41 Falcons 17

Cowboys +3 at Texans
The Texans defense is giving up over 400 yards a game in the air. On offense they will be going without LT Duane Brown for the next few weeks due to a suspension. I expect Romo to air it out a lot in this one. I also think Demarcus Ware is going to have a huge game against a back up left tackle.
Cowboys 28 Texans 21

Seahawks +5.5 vs Chargers
In week one the Rivers had a tough time dealing with the crowd noise in Arrowhead Stadium. He's going to have to deal with even more noise and confusion in Seattle. The Chargers will likely be going without rookie RB Ryan Mathews. The Seahawks should be able to take away the run with their stout front seven and force the Chargers into 2nd and 3rd and long situations. This is where the crowd can become a big factor. I like the Hawks in this one.
Seahawks 24 Chargers 23

Jaguars +3 vs Eagles
This could be a look ahead game for the Eagles as they host the McNabb lead Redskins next week. Philly will be playing their second straight road game against a Jaguars team that is much better at home than they are on the road. The Eagles still have some issues on the O line which may be a problem for them in the run game. I like the Jags to use MJD a lot and control the clock while wearing out Philly's defense.
Jaguars 20 Eagles 17

Dolphins -2.5 vs Jets
The AFC East leading Dolphins are 2-0 and haven't played a home game yet. They are quietly one of the better teams in the league. They won't be after this week when the whole country gets to see them on Sunday night. I expect Brandon Marshall to have a big game since he won't have Revis glued to his hip all day. I also think the Phins defense is going to create a lot of problems for Sanchez and the rest of the Jets offense. The Jets already have an issue at LG and now C Nick Mangold is dealing with a shoulder injury. If Mangold does play he will have to deal with Miami's 355 pound NT Paul Soliai. That could be a real problem for the Jets up the middle.
Dolphins 17 Jets 9