NFL Week One: Bettors Get the Best Of It

NFL Notebook by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

The players came out firing for week one of pro football – and they were more right than wrong.

After months of handicapping and waiting for the season to start, their patience and handicapping skills came to fruition as the majority of the public games came through for the players.

"In the morning games, it seemed like everyone had the combination of Dallas, Philly, Minnesota and Baltimore in their parlays," said Lucky’s Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro. "We got some buy-back on Carolina when we went to +3, and the same with Cleveland at +5, but not enough to offset the overall risk in the morning."

At the end of the first wave of nine games Sunday, Vaccaro said his books were about even, but the real risk was yet to come.

"We got smart money on the Rams and 49ers late games pushing those lines down, but we had far more risk on the other side," he said.

During the late games, Vaccaro said he was put into the position of rooting with the sharp players, who moved the line because there was more upside for the house. The combination late of Seattle, New York, Arizona and Green Bay tied up in existing parlays were a worst-case scenario, despite all the large wagers taken on the other side.

That demonstrates how powerful the parlay can be. Sports books live and die with it. On a rare losing day for the house in pro football, seldom will it ever be the wise guy that’s doing the damage.

Instead, a rough day for the books is generally when a majority of the Sunday games cover for the parlay bettors – paying off at odds of 20-, 40-, and 80-to-1! Those are numbers a book just can’t catch up to.

Each week, usually there are about six to seven games that are just buried with one-sided action, often as part of parlay bets.

One of the games Vaccaro was fortunate didn’t come through for the bettors was the Bengals versus the Broncos.

"That was our best game of the day, not only because the Bengals were a public team, but also because of the smart money," Vaccaro said. "We opened that game at pick originally and the line just ran all the way up to Bengals -4 ½."

Denver won the game outright, making it a big score for the sports books.

Usually, it’s worse when the underdog wins outright because of the "plus" money paid out – odds greater than even money, rather than less than 1-to-1. But that didn’t happen in the Lucky’s sports books, Vaccaro said. "No one wanted the Broncos, not with the money line, points, or teasers," he said.

The "deadest" game of the day – the one with the least betting action – was also the longest. There didn’t seem to be much interest for the Lions-Saints marathon, in which the first overall draft choice, Matt Stafford, made his NFL debut with the Lions. But the Saints’ Drew Brees tossed six touchdown passes in a rout that still gave the few New Orleans bettors who laid the 14 points a scare, as the Saints only won by 18, 45-27.

Big Score of the Day
Chris Cooley’s score in the final minutes for the Redskins covered the +6.5 against the Giants, making the score 17-23 and pushing the game over the total of 37.

Week 1 Score Card: Sharps vs. Sports Books

The Eagles opened -1 at the Las Vegas Hilton and was bet to -2.5 by Saturday, where it closed. Jake Delhomme picked up right where he left off in the playoffs and tossed four more interceptions. Winner: Sharps

The Bengals opened a pick months ago and was bet systematically to -4.5, partly a result of all the Mile High drama in Denver. The Broncos played great defense, enough to cover, and caught a Hail-Mary to win straight up. Winner: Sports Books

Colts opened -7.5 and bet down to 6.5 and the Jaguars made a game of it covering, and nearly winning. Maurice Jones-Drew was stellar and the Jags Defense played very physical creating key turnovers. Winner: Sharps

The Cowboys opened at -6 and was bet down to -5 by Sunday morning. Tony Romo showed his two ex-teammates that he’s just fine without them. He launched long bombs throughout the day, with all connecting against a good secondary. Winner: Sports Books

Arizona opened -6.5 and was bet down to -4.5 close to game time. The poor pre-season by the Cardinals continued. Winner: Sharps

Seahawks opened -8.5 and was bet down to -7.5. The "logic" must have been that the Seahawks couldn’t be a TD better than the Rams. There’s no mystery left on this one; there’s nothing good to say about the Rams. Winner: Sports Books

Roberts Week One Pro Football Selections & Best Bets

by M Roberts

Each week I’ll give my opinions on the games with a few best bets. All lines listed are courtesy of The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook updated from 12:30 pm Saturday.

Week 1, Sunday, September 13, 2009

Dolphins +4 @ Falcons (O/U 43.5): Atlanta will have a tough time duplicating last season’s fantastic season, but so will Miami who is in the same boat. Like Michael Turner too much at home to go against. Pick: Falcons 27-20

Chiefs +13 @ Ravens (36): Looks like a complete mismatch. Chiefs lost all pre-season games and don’t have a solid game plan in place for 2009 despite a new Head Coach in Todd Haley. I have question marks about the Ravens change in defensive scheme this year, but they still have the players. Pick: Ravens 28-6

Eagles -2.5 @ Panthers (43.5): Carolina was the favorite in this game a few months ago, and moved from Philly being favored Monday by -1 to -2.5 on Saturday. Likely not to reach 3, but Panthers should be able to get the home field win led by their running attack. Still questions about Westbrook’s ability to contribute for Philly. Pick: Panthers 28-21

Broncos +4.5 @ Bengals (43): The sharps and the public have bet this game from Denver a small favorite a few months ago to Cincy where it’s at now. No movement on the line this week, and it may be over-inflated. Denver has been through a lot, but still have one of the best offensive lines in football. Look for the Bronco running game to be too much to handle for a suspect Bengals defensive unit. Pick: Broncos 20-16

Vikings -3.5 @ Browns (40): This game will be closer than most think. The Browns will play an inspired game and key on stopping the run, harder said than done, but should they have success early and move the ball just a little, it‘ll come down to a field goal. Pick: Vikings 23-20

Jets +4.5 @ Texans (44): The Houston defense should be much better than it has shown the last two seasons, and because they‘re not, this might be the best game of the day if you like offense. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez would have liked to start his career at home, but playing a bad defense in front of a semi-rabid crowd is the next best thing. Pick: Jets 37-33

Jaguars +7 @ Colts (44): The big question with the Jags is how well Maurice Jones-Drew responds to getting all the carries with Fred Taylor gone. Will he be too tired to be the bolt of energy that got the Jags rolling in key moments? The answer is No! he’ll be just fine, especially this week without Bob Sanders patrolling the field. Pick: Jaguars 30-23

Lions +13.5 @ Saints (49): Lions were 7-1 vs. the spread last season on the road. No one better to cash with than Detroit. This line has moved up a half on the side and total from Monday. Look for the Saints to get theirs, but for Lions to be in striking distance to get the last cover which the Saints could care less about. Pick: Saints 34-24

Cowboys -5.5 @ Buccaneers (39): So many reasons to love the Cowboys and hate the Bucs this week, but it can’t be that easy can it? The Cowboys got a happy Tony Romo and all those backs and Bucs have 3 mediocre backs, and washed up QB, and a new Head Coach. The Bucs also have a proud talented defense who the home crowd will inspire to keep the game close. Maybe a good money line play. Pick: Cowboys 16-13

49ers +6 @ Cardinals (46.5): This game just keeps repeating year after year on opening day, but this will be the first opener with Samurai Mike at the helm. The 49ers have a young disciplined defense and a confident offense to be able to take it at the defending NFC Champs. The Cardinals awful pre-season will linger into week 1. Pick: 49ers 34-26

Redskins +6.5 @ Giants (37.5): This game will likely end up like last years battles with a bruising style that nets the Redskins very little points. Giants have the best defense in football and the Skins have no answer to negate that edge. Pick: Giants 23-6

Rams +7.5 @ Seahawks (41): This line has come down from Monday a whole point meaning some sharps have come in on the Rams. Seattle’s offense looked the most crisp of any in pre-season led by a healthy Matt Hasselbeck. Hawk-n-Roll! Pick: Seahawks 28-17

Bears +4 @ Packers (46.5): This game has a moved a half since Monday, and because it’s a Sunday Night game, you’ll likely see the favorite go to 5.5. Both should be able to score, but Chicago will get their first taste of ill-advised throws by Jay Cutler leading to losing games. Aaron Rodgers is ready to become a star. Pick: Packers 31-19

Monday Night Football
Bills +11 @ Patriots (47.5): The Bills have made some additions but their biggest weapon, Marshawn Lynch, is suspended for three games. The Patriots will look to flex their rehabilitated offensive weapons early and often. Once the air is out the bag and the Bills have accepted defeat, it‘ll be a very boring second half. Pick: Patriots 35-7

Chargers -9.5 @ Raiders (43): Not many teams looked worse than Oakland in pre-season in all facets. The only thing talented as a group there is the fans, which may help a little, but see Denver’s waxing of them in the same opener last year on Monday Night for how effective the crowd was. Chargers should do as they want. Pick: Chargers 38-17


Best Bets: 49ers +6.5, Seahawks -7.5, Giants -6.5, Packers -4, Chargers -9.5, Patriots -11

Week 1 Upsets and Surprise Teams

by Mike T.

Every year starting week 1 we always see some surprises. Teams like Mia, Atl, and Balt come to mind when thinking about teams that most wouldn't expect much from in '08. This happens every year and will again this year. The Dolphins went 1-15 in the '07 season and turned it around in '08 finishing 11-5. The '07 Falcons(4-12) and the 5-11 Ravens both finished 11-5 in '08.

The first few weeks of the year is a great time to look for upsets, money lines, dogs that can cover or simply surprise teams. I do this every year and more often than not do pretty well.

Who will it be this year?

Two teams that seem to stick out to me are the Seahawks and the Bengals. The Seahawks underachieved in Holmgrens last season but I believe they as well as the 49ers will not let the Cards run away with the division this year. I expect Hasselbeck to bounce back after being injured much of last season. The addition of TJ Houshmandzadeh in FA and draft picks LB Aaron Curry and C Max Unger should all be key contributors immediately. They should have a solid run game behind a good OL and their is still a lot of talent on defense.

As for the Bengals, maybe I watched to much "Hard Knocks" but I believe that this team has a lot of talent. Sure they lost TJ but acquired L. Coles still have #85 (you can say that # in any language you like) and C. Henry tore it up in preseason. They have a stable of RBs and picked up FB B. Leonard. Rookie ILB Ray Maualuga will make an immediate impact on a pretty talented defense.

That said, I won't take either of these two teams in week one as they are both favorites. So let's get to the dogs that I like.

Jacksonville +7 at the Colts
We all know how good the Colts offense is but, the defense goes from slightly above average to poor when Bob Sanders is out. Well, he's out. The Jags like to run the ball and they do it well. The Colts did very little in the offseason and during the draft to beef up the defense. I can see the Jags having a big day on the ground while keeping Peyton on the sidelines. I'm also not ready to write off Tory Holt. I think he has a few more 80+ catch seasons left in him and it may be time for 5th year WR Troy Williamson to have a breakout year.
Jax 27 Ind 24

Tampa Bay +6 vs Dallas
The Cowboys did almost nothing in the offseason.They lost T.O. and picked up Jon Kitna in FA and that's about it. They didn't have a pick in the draft until the 3rd round and while they did have multiple picks in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th, I don't see any of them getting much playing time right away. That's not to say that some of them won't be stars in the near future, just not the first few weeks. Tampa lost a few players in FA but replaced them with better talent in the off season. The addition of Derrick Ward to go along with Cadillac and Graham makes this a great RB rotation. Antonio Bryant had a break out year and new arrival KWII may be enough O for the Bucs. They added two defensive linemen on day one of the draft to an already solid defense. I like the home dog in this one.
Tampa 23 Dallas 21

Miami +4 at Atlanta
I'm kind of torn between a few teams that may pull out a money line win for me. I think the 49ers may have a shot against the Cards. I really want to pull the trigger on Cleveland over the Vikes, but I think I'm going to go with the Dolphins over the Falcons in week 1. These are two teams headed in the right direction. They both had nice off seasons in FA and the draft. For some reason though I have to go with Miami. I think they will try to keep Matt Ryan off the field as much as they can with a strong running game. A lot of new faces on defense for the Falcons may still need a week or two to fully understand the system. I also think Pennington will make fewer mistakes than sophomore Ryan.
Miami 26 Atlanta 16

Week 1 Pro Football Notes

NFL Notebook by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

Super Bowl winners on a 'cover' streak

The pro football games kickoff this Thursday with the Titans visiting Pittsburgh in the annual season opener in which the World Champions jump start the season.

In years past, the Super Bowl champs used to start the season off on Monday night where it was a great bet against for whoever they lined up against.

For some reason, waiting for all the action on Sunday to run its course and get to Monday’s game was too much to ask for the champs.

In recent years, the champs have been playing on Thursday nights to start the season and the cover has been there in just about every instance. Last season the Giants strangled the Redskins, the year prior it was the Colts dismantling the Saints and the year before that it was the Steelers taking care of business and covering against the Dolphins.

In 2005, the Patriots beat the Raiders by 10 and in the previous year, the Patriots took care of the Colts by 3. In all instances, the champs won the game and only in 2004 did they not cover.

In all, the Super Bowl champs have won nine straight games in their openers going 7-2 ATS. The last team to not win in their first game as defending champion was the Denver Broncos, who lost to the Dolphins the year after John Elway retired.

The Steelers are currently a 5½ point favorite against the Titans.

The largest line move from all the early lines had the Denver Broncos a slight favorite at Cincinnati for week one. The sharp bettors picked on that line early and moved it to where the line has now settled, with the Bengals being a 4½ point favorite. The betting and moves on that game took place well before all the Jay Cutler drama.

Chances are that the public will be all over the Bengals just because of Denver’s poor preseason and persona amid all the bad publicity surrounding their team. This could be a spot for going against an over-inflated line and taking the points.

Todd Haley’s Kansas City Chiefs get their regime started at Baltimore against one the league’s most physical defenses. What’s worse for Haley is that his prized QB acquisition, Matt Cassel, is doubtful to return until week 3. On that news alone, the Ravens went from an 8½ point favorite to crossing a major barrier of 10 points and settling at 13 at most books. Still, that’s a lot of points to give up for a team that isn’t known for their offensive scoring prowess.

The Cardinals’ first team offense had a tough time scoring throughout preseason and their first string defense couldn’t stop anyone, but that hasn’t changed the line at all for week one as they’re favored by 6½ points at home against the 49ers, a team they seem to open up against every year. This could be the upset of the week and a great money line play.

The Packers have shown one of the most crisp offenses during pre-season, but that has only made them move from a 3 point favorite to 3½ against the rival Bears. The new defensive alignment by defensive coach Dom Capers should produce immediate dividends for the Packers who got involved in too many shootouts last year. With this being a Sunday night game, if you like the Packers, get them early because the home favorite always rises in the late game. Don’t be surprised to see it go to at least the dead number of 5½ points.

The best offensive showing by a preseason first string offense was the Seattle Seahawks led by a healthy Matt Hasselbeck, who had four TD passes in limited action in his two games played. Seattle opened a 6 point favorite early but has crossed a major point spread barrier of 7 and has settled at 8 points against the St. Louis Rams. The public is really down on the Rams and by kick-off on Sunday, it’s likely to see the spread hit as high as 9½ points, so bet early if you like the Seahawks.

Week 1 Pro Football Lines

NFL Spreads 9/10 - 9/14, 2009
Date & Time Favorite Spread Underdog
9/10 8:30 ET At Pittsburgh -5.5 Tennessee O/U 35.5
9/13 1:00 ET At Atlanta -4 Miami O/U 42.5
9/13 1:00 ET At Baltimore -11 Kansas City O/U 37.5
9/13 1:00 ET Philadelphia -1 At Carolina O/U 44.5
9/13 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -4 Denver O/U 44.5
9/13 1:00 ET Minnesota -4 At Cleveland O/U 40
9/13 1:00 ET At Houston -4.5 NY Jets O/U 44
9/13 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -7 Jacksonville O/U 44.5
9/13 1:00 ET At New Orleans -13 Detroit O/U 49
9/13 1:00 ET Dallas -5.5 At Tampa Bay O/U 41.5
9/13 4:15 ET At Arizona -6.5 San Francisco O/U 47.5
9/13 4:15 ET At NY Giants -6.5 Washington O/U 39.5
9/13 4:15 ET At Seattle -7.5 St. Louis O/U 43.5
9/13 8:20 ET At Green Bay -3.5 Chicago O/U 44

Monday Night Football Point Spread
9/14 7:00 ET At New England -10.5 Buffalo O/U 46.5
9/14 10:15 ET San Diego -9.5 At Oakland O/U 44