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| Golden Nugget offered spreads on the best college football games of 2012 |
By Micah Roberts
Here we are in the middle of June in the sweltering heat of a Las Vegas summer with most bettors’ wagering menu already full with the NBA Finals beginning, a baseball season with about 10 weeks of pitching data to go off of, but on Monday morning, just about everyone with a bettable bankroll had their thoughts turned to the fall with college football.
The Golden Nugget released spreads on 111 college football games for the upcoming season that sport book director Tony Miller and his staff thought were the most attractive. There are 15 weeks worth of action highlighted by the most anticipated games everyone wants to see like the Nov. 3 affair between Alabama and LSU. The Tigers are listed as two-point home favorites in the SEC showdown. The Nugget is also offering rivalry games that may only appeal to a few from a certain region like Colorado laying six points against Colorado State on Sept. 2 in Week 1.
That’s the beauty of what Miller and the Golden Nugget tapped into six years ago when they first offered the games of the year and became the starting point to where the market would actually go when other books eventually first offer the games.
“We wanted something that would make us stand out a bit and appeal to a broad audience of both out-of-town visitors, locals, sharp money, and small money,“ said Miller, “The initial response was overwhelming and it has continued to grow each ensuing year.”
For Miller to put his neck out there and allow every wise guy in the city to take a chop at early numbers could be seen as dangerous, but Miller has held his own quite well, showing a profit in four of the five previous years. It’s one on one, bettor vs. bookmaker, with no odds screen to help the bettor know what is a good or bad number, but there are no other competing numbers.
The process on Monday began with dozens of bettors lining up to get their first whack at the virgin numbers. Bettors were allowed to bet three games at $1,000 each per visit and then they had to go to the back of the line. This process went on at a frenzied pace for an hour until every ounce of perceived value was drained.
The biggest movers in the first wave of action came on Ohio State with two of its games moving the most, but Golden Nugget assistant manager Aaron Kessler said this was the first year they haven’t seen massive moves on a few select teams. The early action was spread out across the menu.
“We didn’t have any games move more than twice one way within the first hour of action,” said Kessler, who took more than 100 limit wagers in that first hour.
According to sharp money, Urban Meyer is going to make a much bigger impact with the Buckeyes than expected as Ohio State comes off a losing season. Michigan State was a 4 ½-point home favorite for its Sept. 29 meeting against OSU and Buckeyes money has pushed the game to -2 ½.
Michigan may have finally beaten Ohio State last season, but the bettors are saying its back to the usual this year when they meet in Columbus on Nov. 24. The Wolverines opened as 3-point road favorites and that game is now a pick’em.
A sign of how good Ohio State might be was taken even further when wagers were taken on the same Michigan squad at plus-12 against Alabama on the opening week at Cowboys Stadium pushing the game down to -10.
Even though the wagers are for only $1,000 now ($5,000 will be offered the week of the game), the action this week kind of shows the thought process of what the sharpest college football minds in town are thinking about on certain teams. Many of the lines will be vastly different by the time the games actually kick off and an assist will be given to each one of the bettors who showed their cards at the Golden Nugget in June for helping set the market.
Here’s a look at the opening numbers from all 111 games. Enjoy, and happy handicapping!
|
| Friday, Aug. 31 |
Boise State |
Michigan State (-6 ½) |
| Saturday, Sept. 1 |
Marshall |
West Virginia (-20) |
| Saturday, Sept. 1 (Arlington, TX) |
Michigan |
Alabama (-12) |
| Saturday, Sept. 1 (Atlanta, GA) |
Auburn |
Clemson (-2 ½) |
| Saturday, Sept. 1 (Dublin, Ireland) |
Navy |
Notre Dame (-13 ½) |
| Sunday, Sept. 2 |
Kentucky |
Louisville (-11 ½) |
| Sunday, Sept. 2 (Denver, CO) |
Colorado (-6) |
Colorado State |
|
| Thursday, Sept. 6 |
Pittsburgh |
Cincinnati (-5) |
| Saturday, Sept. 8 |
Okla State (-9 ½) |
Arizona |
| Saturday, Sept. 8 |
Miami |
Kansas State (-7) |
| Saturday, Sept. 8 |
Iowa State |
Iowa (-5) |
| Saturday, Sept. 8 |
Washington |
LSU (-21) |
| Saturday, Sept. 8 |
Georgia (-3) |
Missouri |
| Saturday, Sept. 8 |
Florida |
Texas A&M (-1) |
| Saturday, Sept. 8 |
Nebraska (-6 ½) |
UCLA |
| Saturday, Sept. 8 (East Rutherford, NJ) |
USC (-21) |
Syracuse |
|
| Friday, Sept. 14 |
Washington State (-17 ½) |
UNLV |
| Saturday, Sept. 15 |
Alabama (-6 ½) |
Arkansas |
| Saturday, Sept. 15 |
Notre Dame |
Michigan State (-3) |
| Saturday, Sept. 15 |
USC (-10) |
Stanford |
| Saturday, Sept. 15 |
Florida -5 |
Tennessee |
|
|
| Saturday, Sept. 22 |
LSU (-10 ½) |
Auburn |
| Saturday, Sept. 22 |
Clemson |
Florida State (-8) |
| Saturday, Sept. 22 |
Michigan |
Notre Dame (-1) |
| Saturday, Sept. 22 |
Kansas State |
Oklahoma (-16) |
| Saturday, Sept. 22 |
Missouri |
South Carolina (-5) |
| Saturday, Sept. 22 |
California |
USC (-24) |
|
| Saturday, Sept. 29 |
Mississippi |
Alabama (-31) |
| Saturday, Sept. 29 |
Tennessee |
Georgia (-13 ½) |
| Saturday, Sept. 29 |
Ohio State |
Michigan State (-4 ½) |
| Saturday, Sept. 29 |
Wisconsin |
Nebraska (-3) |
| Saturday, Sept. 29 |
Texas |
Oklahoma State (-3 ½) |
| Saturday, Sept. 29 |
Arkansas (-2 ½) |
Texas A&M |
| Saturday, Sept. 29 |
Baylor |
West Virginia (-11) |
|
| Thursday, Oct. 4 |
USC (-16) |
Utah |
| Saturday, Oct. 6 |
Arkansas (-4 ½) |
Auburn |
| Saturday, Oct. 6 |
LSU (-7 ½) |
Florida |
| Saturday, Oct. 6 |
Kansas |
Kansas State (-20) |
| Saturday, Oct. 6 |
Nebraska |
Ohio State (-2) |
| Saturday, Oct. 6 |
Washington |
Oregon (-20) |
| Saturday, Oct. 6 |
Georgia (-2 ½) |
South Carolina |
| Saturday, Oct. 6 |
West Virginia |
Texas (-4 ½) |
| Saturday, Oct. 6 (Chicago, IL) |
Miami, Fl. |
Notre Dame (-9 ½) |
|
| Saturday, Oct. 13 |
Stanford |
Notre Dame (-5) |
| Saturday, Oct. 13 |
Nevada (-17) |
UNLV |
| Saturday, Oct. 13 |
Alabama (-14 ½) |
Missouri |
| Saturday, Oct. 13 |
USC (-17) |
Washington |
| Saturday, Oct. 13 (Dallas, TX) |
Texas |
Oklahoma (-6) |
|
| Saturday, Oct. 20 |
UNLV |
Boise State (-35 ½) |
| Saturday, Oct. 20 |
Stanford (-4) |
California |
| Saturday, Oct. 20 |
South Carolina |
Florida (-4) |
| Saturday, Oct. 20 |
Florida State (-10) |
Miami, Fl. |
| Saturday, Oct. 20 |
Michigan State |
Michigan (-6) |
| Saturday, Oct. 20 |
BYU |
Notre Dame (-10) |
| Saturday, Oct. 20 |
Alabama (-17) |
Tennessee |
| Saturday, Oct. 20 |
Baylor |
Texas (-11) |
| Saturday, Oct. 20 |
LSU (-8) |
Texas A&M |
| Saturday, Oct. 20 |
Colorado |
USC (-36) |
| Saturday, Oct. 20 |
Kansas State |
West Virginia (-7 ½) |
|
| Friday, Oct. 26 |
Cincinnati |
Louisville (-3 ½) |
| Saturday, Oct. 27 |
Mississippi State |
Alabama (-24) |
| Saturday, Oct. 27 |
USC (-14) |
Arizona |
| Saturday, Oct. 27 |
Texas A&M |
Auburn (-3) |
| Saturday, Oct. 27 |
Michigan (-2) |
Nebraska |
| Saturday, Oct. 27 |
Notre Dame |
Oklahoma (-12) |
| Saturday, Oct. 27 |
TCU |
Oklahoma State (-9) |
| Saturday, Oct. 27 |
Ohio State (-3) |
Penn State |
| Saturday, Oct. 27 |
Tennessee |
South Carolina (-7 ½) |
| Saturday, Oct. 27 |
Michigan State |
Wisconsin (-5) |
| Saturday, Oct. 27 (Jacksonville, FL) |
Florida |
Georgia (-4 ½) |
|
| Thursday, Nov. 1 |
Virginia Tech (-6 ½) |
Miami, Fl. |
| Saturday, Nov. 3 |
Missouri |
Florida (-5 ½) |
| Saturday, Nov. 3 |
Oklahoma State |
Kansas State (-1) |
| Saturday, Nov. 3 |
Alabama |
LSU (-2) |
| Saturday, Nov. 3 |
Nebraska |
Michigan State (-5) |
| Saturday, Nov. 3 |
Pittsburgh |
Notre Dame (-13) |
| Saturday, Nov. 3 |
Oregon |
USC (-6) |
| Saturday, Nov. 3 |
TCU |
West Virginia (-7) |
|
| Thursday, Nov. 8 |
Florida State |
Virginia Tech (-1) |
| Friday, Nov. 9 |
Pittsburgh (-2 ½) |
Connecticut |
| Saturday, Nov. 10 |
Texas A&M |
Alabama (-20) |
| Saturday, Nov. 10 |
Georgia (-6) |
Auburn |
| Saturday, Nov. 10 |
Notre Dame (-12) |
Boston College |
| Saturday, Nov. 10 |
Mississippi State |
LSU (-17) |
| Saturday, Nov. 10 |
Baylor |
Oklahoma (-17) |
| Saturday, Nov. 10 |
West Virginia |
Oklahoma State (-6 ½) |
| Saturday, Nov. 10 |
Arkansas (-3) |
South Carolina |
| Saturday, Nov. 10 |
Kansas State |
TCU (-3 ½) |
| Saturday, Nov. 10 |
Missouri |
Tennessee (-1) |
| Saturday, Nov. 10 |
Arizona State |
USC (-27) |
|
| Saturday, Nov. 17 |
Mississippi |
LSU (-26) |
| Saturday, Nov. 17 |
Stanford |
Oregon (-13 ½) |
| Saturday, Nov. 17 |
USC (-16) |
UCLA |
| Saturday, Nov. 17 |
Ohio State |
Wisconsin (-7) |
| Saturday, Nov. 17 |
Oklahoma (-4) |
West Virginia |
|
| Friday, Nov. 23 |
Arizona State |
Arizona (-5 ½) |
| Friday, Nov. 23 |
Washington |
Washington State (-3) |
| Saturday, Nov. 24 |
Auburn |
Alabama (-18) |
| Saturday, Nov. 24 |
LSU (-3) |
Arkansas |
| Saturday, Nov. 24 |
South Carolina |
Clemson (-4) |
| Saturday, Nov. 24 |
Florida |
Florida State (-7 ½) |
| Saturday, Nov. 24 |
Mississippi State (-10) |
Mississippi |
| Saturday, Nov. 24 |
Michigan (-3) |
Ohio State |
| Saturday, Nov. 24 |
Oklahoma State |
Oklahoma (-8) |
| Saturday, Nov. 24 |
Oregon (-16) |
Oregon State |
| Saturday, Nov. 24 |
TCU |
Texas (-7 ½) |
| Saturday, Nov. 24 |
Missouri |
Texas A&M (-3) |
| Saturday, Nov. 24 |
Notre Dame |
USC (-14) |
|
| Saturday, Dec. 1 |
Texas (-3) |
Kansas State |
| Saturday, Dec. 1 |
Oklahoma (-10) |
TCU |
|
| Saturday, Dec. 8 (Philadelphia, PA) |
Army |
Navy -4 ½ |
|
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