Sports Books Roughed Up on New Years Day, But Get it Back In NFL Week 17

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The new year started out great for the bettors as everything they played on New Years day turned to gold. The bowl games went well for them with all six games going the public’s way, four favorites and two underdogs. One of the favorites, Florida, got a gift wrapped pick-six with 55 seconds to go in a 30-24 game that Penn State was covering the 7 ½-points. Later it was the underdog the public really liked, Wisconsin plus-3, missing the two-point conversion with two minutes to go keeping the game at 21-19 and a gift cover. Stuff like that rarely happens an season, let alone one single day.

However, once the NFL Sunday rolled around the next day, it was apparent this wasn’t really a new year or age dawning on bettors across the state. It was the same unpredictable season from 2010 that had seen only two profitable weeks from the first 16 weeks. Yes, it was technically a new year and the terrific opening day to the year in the bowl games proves it, but it was still week 17 of the 2010 season and more of the same was about to come.

In perhaps one of the most strenuous NFL weeks of the year for the bookmaker, all their attention to detail, rumors, coaching plans and player status paid off as they showed a small win for the week where the favorites went 8-8. With all the scenarios of teams trying to get in to the playoffs with a handful of meaningless games, there appeared to be somewhat of an opportunity to turn the tables on the sports books. Information is the key to everything in the NFL line, the strongest, sturdiest line in all of sports. Many of the week 17 lines were weak with not a lot of confidence put into them making many of last weeks spreads as strong as an Arena Football line.

After the early games -- where the favorites went 5-3 -- it looked like the weak lines would favor the bettors. The Patriots had everything sewn up in the AFC and were expected to rest Tom Brady and many key players after a few series which was why the line was only minus-4. Had the game been played in week 10, the Patriots would have been a 7 ½-point favorite. Brady did eventually come out of the game, but not until the third quarter when the Pats already had a comfortable 31-0 lead.

Two games that had some meaning went quite easily for the favored side with the Steelers and Falcons crushing their opponents much to the bettors delight. The Jets didn’t have much to play for, thus pulled Mark Sanchez very early and didn’t use their running back tandem, yet cruised to an easy 38-8 win over the Bills in a game that closed with the Jets minus-1.

Those four games were weighted public games that showed a mounting risk for the late games that included all the liability from the previous days bowl games. They needed a little help in the late games and they got it.

After the Falcons wrapped up the NFC with an early win, the Bears had nothing to play for and that expectation had the line built in where the Packers were an 11-point favorite. Without the scenarios and implications in place, the Packers may have been minus- 4 ½ for this game, but with nothing to gain from the win, it was expected that Lovie Smith would rest his players. However, the Bears-Packers rivalry won out and Smith played all his key players throughout with hopes of knocking the hated Packers out of the playoffs. The Bears made a game of it and lost in the final seconds with a Jay Cutler interception, but covered the spread with a final score of 10-3.

Another popular play was the Giants laying 4-points at Washington. The Giants were hoping for the Bears to play well and knock the Packers out so they could get in to the playoffs. There was no doubt that they were scoreboard watching because they seemed to have lost that zip in their step when they saw the Packers up 10-3 and subsequently gave up a late long bomb, back door cover, to Rex Grossman.

A popular two team parlay had the Texans hooked up to the Colts. Had the Jaguars beat the Texans and the Colts lost, Jacksonville would be in. All the Colts had to do was win. With the Jaguars starting quarterback and running back out, laying up to 5-points with Houston seemed like a great deal and it was, one of the few late winners for the public. But the Colts got into a battle with Tennessee as 9-point favorites and were never in any situation to cover as they barely won 23-20 on a late field goal.

The win on the day became collectively comfirmed by the sports books when the Seahwks beat the Rams in the late game. Seahwaks backup quarterback Charlie Whitehurst -- the reason many bet the Rams -- played a very consevative, but effective game in getting a 16-6 win. Matt Hasselbeck is expected to start next week's home game against the Saints, a game where New Orleans is a 10-point favorite. Can't say I've ever seen a road favorite like that before.

We can finally wash our hands clean of the regular season and focus on the playoffs where the favorites tend to be stronger. For the bookmakers, congratulations on having your best season ever. Hopefully there will be rewards with bonuses in store from the big bosses for your major contributions to the casino’s bottom line in the last quarter. While bonuses spurred by bettors losses doesn’t make the public feel too well, just know that this season was an anomaly. For all the accolades the Sports Book Directors received from their bosses in 2010, the next losing day will have the bosses asking “How could we lose” with 2010 long gone in the review mirror.

Good luck to the bettors out there in getting the bosses to fret a little bit in the future. Have a Happy, winning New Year!

So What With The Seahawks!

Never have we seen mediocrity rewarded so much in the NFL as we have with the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks making the playoffs. Gaylord Focker -- and his ninth place ribbons -- is even ashamed of the Seahawks accomplishments. However, everyone knew the game and how to play it and Seattle took care of business when they had to, even though it took them a few weeks to seal the deal. So while the Giants and Buccaneers sit at home for the playoffs with 10 wins a piece, and the Seahawks host a playoff game, let us not be upset with the Seahawks, but rather wonder why the other teams couldn’t handle their business when they knew the situation. The Giants had every opportunity to control their own destiny the last two weeks against the Eagles and Packers while Tampa Bay blew a golden opportunity to control their fate by losing a pivotal home game to Detroit three weeks ago.

Mile-High Messiah Returns
The Broncos have won only one playoff game since the John Elway era ended, so they’ve decided to start a new Elway era by bringing him back into the organization as Vice President of Operations. The hall of fame quarterback will head all matters for the team and his first duty will be getting a new a new head coach. First on the list is his alma mater’s current head coach, Stanford’s Jim Harbaugh. Should Harbaugh be turn down the offer, look for Elway to bring in his back-up from his playing days, Gary Kubiak, who is likely to be let go by the Texans. He'll also be in charge of the Broncos draft where this year they will be picking second overall.

NFL Week 17 Betting Moves From Las Vegas Sports Books

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Week 17 of the NFL is always a tough week to handicap for the bettors, and maybe even tougher for the bookmakers who have to baby sit a few lines as they wait for information and scenarios to unfold. Several games will be treated with caution by the sportsbooks because of being meaningless, even though most books will take care of that by offering lower limits. In other instances, they have to wait for rumors and reports from the practice field such as Tom Brady and the Patriots and how long they’ll actually play in their home game against the Dolphins.And then there are semi-meaningless games with all kinds of variables from players who will play and who won’t that has the team rating all muffled. The feature game in this category goes to the Cowboys visiting the Eagles. The initial early line on Monday had the Eagles as 12-point favorites against the Cowboys who had quarterback Jon Kitna listed as ‘doubtful,’ meaning rookie Stephen McGee would likely start. When QB Michael Vick got hurt, the line was left vacant until Thursday morning. If the line was Eagles minus-12 with Vick, knowing that McGee would play, then it’s got to be at least a 4 ½-point line move, right? And then, how much do you add on for wide receiver DeSean Jackson being out? Position players usually don’t get much consideration in point spreads, but this kid actually makes the quarterback look better because of his athletic ability.

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The South Point was the first to put the game on the board in Las Vegas at Philadelphia minus-7 and shortly after Station Casinos posted minus-6 ½. Later in the day, the crew over at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book posted the Eagles minus-9 and quickly jumped to Eagles minus-12. As this was being written, no other book had a posted number on the game. The Hilton line likely has more to McGee getting his first career start, on the road in Philadelphia, than anything else. The Eagles are locked in and can’t advance further with a win, but maybe Kevin Kolb has an agenda to prove something to himself and the team, and maybe even other teams.
Another aspect to look at from a handicappers’ perspective is who the game means more to. The Lions are the perfect example this week. They aren’t going to the playoffs, but they have won three in a row, including two straight wins on the road. They’ll come home to a glorious reception as though they’re in the playoffs against the Vikings, who showed some grit last week, but have essentially packed it in on a disappointing season. After winning at Philadelphia on Tuesday with rookie quarterback Joe Webb, the Vikings line dropped 3 ½-points from their early line of plus-7 on the basis of Minnesota appearing that they had something left in the tank. But do they have anything left? Is their motivation for this game there just because they don’t want to lose 10 games? Who is hungrier at this juncture: a team who fell one game short of the Super Bowl last season with lofty expectations for this year, or a team who is clearly on the rise and proving it weekly? I’d have to side with Lions here laying minus-3 (-120).
On the early line of Jacksonville at Houston -- before their games were finalized Sunday -- the Jaguars were installed as a 2 ½-point favorite. After an injury to QB David Garrard and the likelihood that running back Maurice Jones-Drew wouldn't play, coupled with both teams losing Sunday, the Texans became 3-point favorites. That’s quite a swing for a team like the Jaguars that still have playoff implications, but it also says a lot about the back-up QB, Trent Edwards, who has a tendency to be overcautious with the football when piloting the ship. Jones-Drew, as great as he is, has proved to be replaceable and has no bearing on the movement. It says a lot about the quarterback when a shift happens like that favoring a team that got blasted in the fourth quarter last week by a rookie quarterback (Tim Tebow) who everyone believes can’t be an NFL QB. However, Houston has shown the ability to get up for these Week 17 meaningless games -- to them -- as they have won convincingly in the final game of the year the last four seasons.
Statistically, the Dolphins were coming strong to play this week at New England regardless of the implications. They are 6-1 on the road this season and are 4-0-1 in their last five trips to Foxboro. Because New England coach Bill Belichick is likely to allow his key starters to play only in the first half, the line is reduced considerably to the Patriots being 4-point favorites, up a whole point from the opener. Had this game been in Week 12 where the game meant something to New England, we’d be looking at a spread closer to minus-8 just because of how well the Patriots offense has been cashing in for the public. They are America’s favorite team to bet right now and the line movement reflects that despite the coaching moves that will greatly impact the final outcome.
When looking at the Bears getting 10 points at Green Bay, we’re all thinking that game must not mean anything, but it does, kind of. The "kind of" part is built in to the line because in order for it to mean something, both the Falcons and Saints have to lose which would then make the Bears game at a later start time mean playing for home field. Had this game been in Week 13, the Packers would be around 4 ½-point favorites if under the same circumstances, of which being the Bears scoring some points like they have been the last two weeks. This game will be taken off the board at most sportsbooks when the early games involving the NFC South teams start and then offered once again when those games become closer to the final outcome, which in the Falcons case at home against Carolina could be the second quarter or earlier.
The Falcons early line was closer to being a line that reflected them beating the Saints on Monday night and resting this week as they opened up as 10-point favorites. Upon losing, making home field a dangling incentive carrot for Week 17, the Falcons were quickly adjusted to minus-14 against Carolina where it sits right now.
The “Game of the Week” features the Rams at Seattle in a do or die matchup for the NFC West crown and ticket into the playoffs. The Seahawks will start Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback and the opening line of Rams minus-2 was built in to him starting, but the Sharps jumped all over it pushing the game to minus-3. The fact that the Seahawks haven’t looked like they did earlier in the year at home also looks to be the key as they have gone 1-3 in their last four at home against the number. The Rams look to be a solid play this week simply on the basis of Whitehurst trying to control the show.
Some early Sharp money came in on the Broncos at home getting 3 ½-points against theChargers, but incremental public money, spurred by an incoming New Year’s Eve crowd, has kept the game at Chargers minus-3 or 3 ½. This game kind of has the same approach that the Lions game does in that it means a whole lot more to the Broncos who seemed energized with some pride for the future due to the play of Tebow. Whereas, the Chargers are playing for nothing in Week 17 for the first time in ages. Will the Chargers road woes of 2-5 on the year continue and what is their mindset like after being thoroughly disappointed in a year where they had one of the top offenses and defenses statistically, only to watch everyone else play in the postseason while they‘re at home?
Happy New Years to everyone and may your 2011 NFL betting year be much better than 2010.
For many, it has been one of the worst ever.