Packers are the Early Public Choice in Super Bowl Against the Steelers

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Rodgers and Pack are the favorites

When the first line came out for the Super Bowl following the Steelers win over the Jets Sunday there was a wide array of opinions on what the Super Bowl should be. Prior to Sunday’s games, Lucky’s sports books had posted a number of pick’em and the savants over at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book concurred. However, when the first lines came out, there was a drastic change as most had eventually settled on the Packers being a 2 ½-point favorite.

Some sports books such as the Golden Nugget even opened as high as minus-3 ½ with Sports Book Director Tony Miller citing simply a need to get early money on the other side because the Packers have been such a darling with the public. Others such as Lucky’s, the Mirage, South Point and Hilton started low and they found that the public was definitely feeling love for the Packers as the money kept pouring in forcing their line ever so close to minus-3, but staying just clear at minus-2 ½.

It’s the Super Bowl, the most bet upon event of the year for every sports book -- legal and illegal -- in the world. Everyone has an opinion on the game, but many of those opinions change drastically by the time the game starts thanks to two weeks of hype and the truck loads of information supplied to everyone.

Over the course of sports book history in Las Vegas, only two games have been set as low as this one with the 1972 Dolphins as 1-point favorites and the 1970 Colts minus-2 ½, both of which covered. Every other Super Bowl has been set a minus-3 or higher.

Something drastically different from those two Super Bowls was the advent of the internet and off-shore books, which in many way dictates the market price. The market was driven Sunday as a prominent off-shore book posted a line before the Steelers AFC Championships game had concluded and when it was over, the price had been set at minus-2 ½. Sports books like Lucky’s had started low at minus-1 ½, but quickly got in line because of the forced action.

So is this really the correct line and might we see an influx of Pittsburgh money come in late? My guess is, yes we will, and any value to be found on the under dog now will not to be had by the time the Super Bowl kicks off.

But my past history behind the counter also has me second-guessing my theory. When the Raiders opened as 4-point favorites to Tampa Bay in 2003, I positively felt that the public and Sharps would be on the Raiders which altered some normal bookmaking procedures. Between being on the west coast and the Raiders being a public favorite all year long, I felt the money had to come and I held steady at minus-3 ½ all the way to kickoff despite overwhelming Tampa Bay support. Needless to say, the money never came and the Buccaneers rolled easily, 48-21 that day, making it one of the few losing Super Bowl decisions.

Steeler Nation comes strong with Bets

Because the Steeler nation is so strong and their worth to the public after winning two Super Bowls in the last five years, I have to believe that the Pittsburgh money will come and get closer to the pick’em number originally forecasted. The only flaw in that assessment is the fact that the public control this game.

The Sharp money accounts for so little in the actual bookmaking process and everyone who has sided with the Packers thus far in the playoffs has cashed in mightily. Last week, most sports books reported ticket counts on Green Bay at a 7-to-1 ratio over the Bears. That kind of loyalty from the public will be hard to break.

Packers Crush Sports Books in Playoffs
The 2010 NFL season was favorable for the sports book in 14 of the 17 weeks, but once the playoffs started it was all down hill from there.

“This Super Bowl is going to create an amazing amount of handle,” said Hilton Executive Director Jay Kornegay, “But we have definitely paid the price to getting this great matchup with the Packers support winning every week.”

Most sports books felt the wrath of the Packers supporters the last three weeks, but there was no better example than last week against the Bears where almost everyone had a Green Bay ticket laying 3 ½-points.

“We got crushed with Green Bay,“ said MGM Resorts Sports Book Director Jay Rood, “The only thing that really saved us was the game not going over along with our future prices posting.”

The MGM properties probably have the most extensive resources of future wagers in the state and if they break even on a day when those commodities are supposed to come cashing in, it says a lot about just how big of an impact the Packers had on the city.

Another bad beat for the sports books was that seven of the eight possible sides won on teasers with the Steelers game being an all-way win.

Super Bowl Parties

We’ll have a list next week on what some of the best parties are in the city, but the first one on the schedule to get the ball rolling is the NASCAR Café at the Sahara. For $60, you can eat and drink all you want, from 1pm until the game is over. That includes any kind of drink or food offered. I will be there myself with ESPN’s Brian Blessing who will be giving away all kinds of prizes just for being there that includes free UNLV tickets, t-shirts, maid services and oil changes. Come by and say hello as we’ll also be doing some Super Bowl trivia and stump the host segments. Reservations are be taken right now at the NASCAR Café.

Who to bet?
I usually change my mind on a Super Bowl side by game day -- and not always for the better, but as of now, I’m siding with the Steelers, and not only because of the value. I think their defense will be able to do some of the things that Chicago did, a team that obviously had Aaron Rodgers rattled in the second half on their game with pressure. I also like what Ben Roethlisberger does which are several things that never show in the box score. I like his leadership and ability to limit mistakes, whether that means running for a first down or taking the sack. Although Mike Tomlin finds it hard to garner support for his coaching style, I like how the Omar Epps look-a-like captains the ship. My guess this week is a Steelers 27-23 victory.

AFC & NFC Championship Weekend Betting Moves in Las Vegas; Lots of Packers Money!

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Bettors are excited about the Packers this week

Even though both number one seeds have been eliminated, it’s hard to imagine a better lineup than we have for this weeks AFC and NFC Championship games. A couple of two and six seeds having at it for the right to go to the Super Bowl wouldn’t have sounded so hot a few weeks prior to the season, but according to Lucky’s Race and Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro, this is the best possible scenario for the sports books in regards to creating handle.

“People were getting tired of the Patriots. Now we have some great matchups this week with two huge markets in Chicago and New York along with two storied franchises rich with football history in Pittsburgh and Green Bay. We couldn‘t ask for a better combination of four teams from a perspective of getting more people to the windows with opinions.”

It’s fair to say that no matter where you live, you know someone from one of those areas. Who doesn‘t know someone that can recall one of their greatest thrills in sports occurring from one of those franchises, I can‘t say I don‘t. Namath’s Jets, the ‘85 Bears, the Steel Curtain and Lombardi’s Packers; all those memories come together this week with a wider range of age groups having a stake than any combination the Falcons, Patriots or Saints could have given us.

Due in part to some of those reasons, the expected increase handle won’t just stop with the Championship games.

“Regardless of who makes the Super Bowl,” Vaccaro explained, “the fan intrigue is going to be there for either team which should lead to a big Super Bowl write.“

The early wagers have been sort of an indication of who the public is siding with. On one side, it’s been all Packers action and in the other game, it’s been a tossup.

Jimmy Vaccaro  

“I’m still waiting for someone to make a Bears bet,” joked Vaccaro. “We’ve got about a 7 to 1 ticket count ratio on the Packers. If the Packers go down, regardless of what happens in the other game, the books will have a good day.”

Lucky’s chain of books across Nevada opened the Packers minus-3 (-105), but has climbed up the ladder quickly with seven separate moves until finally settling at the current number of minus-3 ½ flat. They had went as high as minus-3 (-135), but bettors still laid it forcing them to get off the key number.

Between the Packers actual play on the field and public sentiment in their corner, Vaccaro also posted up Super Bowl lines with the Packers being a 3-point favorite against the Jets and Pick’em with the Steelers. He also has the Steelers minus-4 against the Bears and minus-1 ½ versus the Jets.

As for the other Championship game with split opinions, you’ve got two proud fan bases. With Pittsburgh, you’ve got a solid foundation of long time loyal fans to go along with another faction who just simply fares well with taking the Steelers in the playoffs.

With the Jets, you have their large fan base of hungry, excited people waiting for their first Super Bowl appearance since 1969. But beyond those faithful fans, they’ve also grown a loyal following of bettors who have routinely cashed in big with the underdog Jets in the last two playoff seasons.

“We’ve been bouncing around from minus-3 ½ to minus-4 with the Steelers. It’s been all Jets at plus-4 and all Steelers at minus-3 ½,” Vaccaro said.

In addition to the Super Bowl lines already put up for the four prospective matchups, Lucky’s is also offering a wide assortment of Championship game propositions as a mini preview to the hundreds they’ll do for the Super Bowl. Along with player props, special point spreads and in-game wagering, Vaccaro is also offering Yes/No props on each team to win the Super Bowl.

“We’ve found that bettors really like that option of betting against a team from a value standpoint,” said Vaccaro.

Packers defense shut out Jets 9-0 in week 8

The worst possible situation for the sports books this week would appear to be the Packers covering and the Jets winning outright. Even though the Steelers game is split, the factor that sends the risk over the edge is the Jets money line at a plus-175 payout, which multiplied by parlays to the Packers would make it a hefty blow to Las Vegas.

I kind of hope it happens, even though I consider most of the book Directors my friends.

The Vegas sports books had their best football season ever, so it’s time to give a little back to the bettors in the new year. Beyond that, I do believe the Jets-Packers matchup would create the most interest for the Super Bowl which would be a huge spike for business in Las Vegas; not just at the sports books, but for the entire gaming and non-gaming community.

Jets-Packers hype wouldn’t start because of seeing two teams whose main color is green going against each other, although that would be very cool too, but because they have the best stories going right now. There is no buzz surrounding the Steelers, or the Bears, and many of the fringe fans that the Super Bowl attracts know more about the childish Jay Cutler demanding a trade out of Denver than they know about his turnaround in Chicago this year. They also know more about Ben Roethlisberger’s jurisprudence stories than they’d like to which turns off that casual fan, and it’s those fans that make a Super Bowl truly super from a betting standpoint.

Two six seeds in the Super Bowl? That is a crazy thought, but they are both kind of the mainstream topic right now and I‘m hopping on the bandwagon dressed in Green.

Roberts Week 16 Pro Football Selections: Ravens Keep Steelers Reelin'

Ravens +3 @ Pittsburgh: So this is supposed to be the week the Steelers put it all together in their playoff run. After losing five games in a row -- and barely beating the Packers to end the streak -- they think they can flip on the switch and play better when the chips are down? Well, the chips have been down for quite a while in losses to Cleveland, Kansas City, and Oakland -- three of the worst teams in the league. The Ravens, meanwhile, come in feeling good offensively and defensively. They are playing as well as they have all season with Joe Flacco showing signs of last seasons rookie that led the Ravens to the conference title game. Two teams going in different directions right now and I'll take the one going the right way which is Baltimore.

Baltimore/Pittsburgh OVER 42: It appears that the Steelers can't stop anyone with Troy Polamalu out -- as he will be this week again -- and they have to resort to throwing non-stop just to keep up with teams now. The Steelers are no longer a running team and can't grind clock out as they always have in the traditional sense. They throw now out of need, because their always down, as they will be this week.

Dolphins -1.5 vs Texans: Chad Henne has really come into his own this season and has this team in position for a possible playoff spot without running much of the wildcat offense anymore. The Texans are looking for the playoffs too, but could have taken care of business too many times this season to not have them in this position. They can blame Kris Brown all they want for losing games with missed kicks, but the Texans should have handled their business before making the kicker seal their fate. Look for Ricky Williams to have a big day with Henne doing just enough to beat Houston.

Packers -14 vs Seahawks: Not a big fan of laying two touchdowns in any game, but the Seahawks have shown that they have thrown in the towel. Seattle is coming off of two terrible offensive showings at Houston and worst of all, at home to the 1-12 Buccaneers. Had Seattle been hindered by having offensive weapons out such as their starting quarterback, that may have gave them a pass, but Matt Hasselbeck played both of those games with no intensity. They just want to see the season end, find a GM, and get ready for 2010 while the Packers will give Seattle's defense a steady dose of Ryan Grant.