Alabama or Clemson? Selection from Las Vegas

Las Vegas a fun place to watch championship games. Intense crowds.

LAS VEGAS -- There’s no question Alabama is the higher rated team in Monday’s national title game against Clemson, but is that rating gap really worth 6.5 points? According to Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White, the gap between the two teams is about half that number.

“Alabama’s played the better schedule in the SEC,” said White, “and Alabama’s the better team with the far better defense, but with the recent big wins by Clemson the disparity between the two closed to the point where, Alabama is rated only 3-points better (5-points better prior to ACC Championship). At the beginning of the season, the differential was 9-points.”

The added inflation to the number is sort of a luxury tax because sports books know the majority of the action will come on Alabama. Most books opened Alabama -7 just to see if they’d get some feelers taking the points, and some sharps did, which caused many to move to -7 (EVEN) or -6.5. William Hill’s 104 sports books across Nevada have taken 71 percent of the tickets written on Alabama, as well as 61 percent of the overall cash taken in.

Read More Here.......TheLinemakers.com

Roberts College Bowl Selections: Dec 30-31 - Stanford and Vols Hang Tough as Dogs

Wednesday, December 30, 2009


Bowling Green -1 vs. Idaho: Even though Idaho is playing somewhat of a home game on the smurf turf of Boise State, they’ll be hard pressed to stop the passing attack of Bowling Green’s QB Tyler Sheehan and WR Freddie Barnes who always seem to hook up several times a game.

Arizona +2.5 vs. Nebraska: This game should be a tough defensive battle despite it playing in the traditional scoring fest of the Holiday Bowl. Nebraska wants to run time off the clock and win 13-10 while Arizona wants to quick strike with three-step drops to receivers on crossing patterns to negate any type of pass rush. Look for Arizona to have more success in their agenda.

Thursday, December 31, 2009

Missouri -6.5 vs. Navy: Navy is appearing in their seventh straight bowl game, a school record, but they will have a tough time stopping Missouri who has averaged 417 yards per game this season. Look for a close game early on with Missouri taking control in the second half.

Houston -5 vs. Air Force: This game features a Houston squad averaging 449 yards per game passing against an Air Force team that allows only 148 yards passing per game. Houston has junked up late in the season getting beat by lesser opponents, but they should be able to blow out the Falcons in this one.

Stanford +10 vs. Oklahoma: This line has risen rapidly from 7.5. Stanford will not have the fortune of getting Andrew Luck in the game at QB, but the initial line was built in for that probability. Toby Gerhart will be able to do what he wants for Stanfiord against a Bob Stoops led team that doesn’t fare well in Bowl games. Stoops is 3-7 in bowls and 0-4 against the spread when favored by six-points or more.

Minnesota -1.5 vs. Iowa State: Two 6-6 teams that probably shouldn’t even be in a bowl game. Iowa State has the more balanced offensive attack while the Gophers have the stronger defense. Look for the passing game of Minnesota to be the difference in this one.

Tennessee +5.5 vs. Virginia Tech: Ryan Williams is a fantastic RB, but he’ll be facing a Monte Kiffin led defense that has had a few weeks to prepare. The Hokies are one-dimensional and that will hurt them against a tough Volunteer defense. SEC Bowl dogs are 9-1 over the last 10 chances when coming off a win to close the year. This profile fit’s the Vols and they should be primed to get a big win in Lane Kiffin’s first season.

Bowl Season: 4-6
 
I will have more selections for New Years day posted Thursday night. Happy New Years to everyone and Good Luck to all!
 
My New Years resolution has begun already with a low carb diet that includes, of all things, cutting out beer. I have traditionally been good with the plan for about three straight weeks shedding about 15 pounds. I'm shooting for 25 pounds.