Roberts College Football Selections: Red River Rivalry Controlled By Texas

Texas (5-0) -3 vs. Oklahoma (3-2): The Longhorns have won three of the four in this series covering all four games. The three wins Texas has over that span have all been by double digits. The Sooners are playing strictly for pride at this point while Texas is playing for a position in the BCS Championship game. Much more at stake here for Texas.

Texas hasn’t run the ball well this year and they’ll need a better performance then they had last week against lowly Colorado. Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley should have enough offensive firepower to outscore a Sooner team still not in sync with Sam Bradford.

Notre Dame (4-1) +10 vs. USC (4-1): It’s never a good idea to bet against the Trojans but this looks like a nice spot for Notre Dame to pull off a possible upset. Notre Dame has lost seven straight to USC and six of the losses were by double digits. The last two meetings, Notre Dame got clubbed a combined 76-3.

The reason Notre Dame should do well this game rests with QB Jimmy Clausen who can move the ball effectively against anyone. He’s averaging over 300 yards per game passing with 12 TD’s. USC will be piloted by a more comfortable Matt Barkley, but he’ll be forced to throw more in this game which Pete Carroll would like to avoid. The home crowd will play a huge role in this game and rattle the freshman late.

Florida (5-0) -26 vs. Arkansas (3-2): The Razorbacks have a great offense averaging 451 yards and 37 points per game. They’ll be heavily tested this week against the great Gators defense that is allowing only 6.4 points and 202 yards per game. Florida will score in all areas of offense, defense, and special teams making the cover easy in this game. The Gators are 11-3 in their last 14 games at home against the spread.

Iowa (6-0) +3 @ Wisconsin (5-1): In a similar situation last season, Wisconsin was undefeated, lost to Ohio State and then got blown away by Iowa 38-16. This year, it’s the same thing as a deflated Badger team gets their first loss of the season and welcomes Iowa. Iowa has won 5 of the last seven meetings in this series and has their hopes set in running the Big-10 table and getting a shot at the BCS Title game. Look for an inspired Iowa performance this week and play the money line.

Las Vegas Line Moves: Books Attempt To Combat Sharp Parlay Card Action

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

NFL Line Moves: Lines Courtesy of Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook

Bengals opened a home -3.5 point favorite and is up to the dead number of -5.5 against the Texans.

Broncos opened as an underdog again at +4.5 for their Monday Night game at San Diego and it has been pushed down to +3.5. It’s the first time all season that the Broncos have been bet on which usually means the they’ll be a good bet against with so much weight and opinion on their side.

All the key numbers have been bet from other than a few huge -14 point favorites. The only action among those 3 two-touchdown favorites has been bets on Detroit at Green Bay despite Calvin Johnson possibly not playing.

* Bills money knocked the Jets off of -10 to -9.5.
* Viking got some money laying only -2.5 pushing it to -3 even.
* Tampa Bay found some takers as a home dog at +3.5 against the Panthers pushing
the number to +3 even.
* Saints opened up a -3 -120 favorite and found a few takers pushing it to -3 -125 , an obvious sign the books don’t want to get off “3” in what will be a big game
* Seahawks laying only -2.5 at home against the Cardinals found takers and the number is now -3 even.
* The Falcons at home laying -3 flat to the Bears got some attention and bumped it to -3 -125 in what will be another large wagered upon game since it’s the Sunday night get-back game. Depending on how the books do on Sunday, this game should eventually find its way to -4.

Read More on VegasInsider.com

College Football Notebook: BCS Possibilities

by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

We’re only half-way through the college football schedule, but things are heating up with several possibilities ready to unfold. Here’s a look at the top teams in the country and what they have to do to have a chance at playing for the BCS National Championship at the Rose Bowl on Jan 7.

Florida (5-0): Responded well under dire circumstances with a limited Tim Tebow playing at the toughest night crowd in college football. Their road is paved and set for a clash with Alabama in the SEC Championship game. The winner will play for the overall BCS Title.

Alabama (6-0): Still have a key home date on Nov. 7 against LSU and play a dangerous South Carolina team in Tuscaloosa this week, but if all goes well, they’ll have their chance to play for the National Title by beating Florida in the SEC Championship game.

Texas (5-0): Untested team that lost respect in their game against Colorado last week. They can regain some voters with an impressive win against Oklahoma this week. If they get by the Sooners, they still have four dangerous games on their schedule with three of those on the road at Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. In the BIG-12 Championship Game, they’ll likely play either Kansas or Nebraska. Of all the top tiered teams, Texas could really earn some respect by running the table and would surely play either Florida or Alabama for the Championship if they did so.

Virginia Tech (5-1): Impressive home wins over Miami and Nebraska and a well played loss to Alabama to start the year have the Hokies in contention. Should they get by Georgia Tech this week they should have clean sailing with a road game at East Carolina maybe giving them their biggest test until the ACC Championship game where they’ll likely play Boston College who they just pummeled last week. Their hope is to run the table and root like heck against Texas in all their tough games along the way.

Boise State (5-0): No matter how many games they win against no losses, no one will give them a shot at the title. The voters set themselves up for that possible decision two weeks ago week when they dropped the Broncos in the poll despite winning their game and then the coaches bumped USC past them this week when both were idle. Their toughest game remaining comes at Tulsa this week. After that, the toughest WAC teams they’ll play will be Idaho and Nevada in Boise. The scenario where they might be considered for a shot at the BCS Title is if everyone in front of them loses two games.

USC (4-1): The Trojans are at Notre Dame this week, then have a tough game at Oregon and a visit from Stanford as obstacles. Their defense still has them very well respected with voters as does their big early season win at Columbus. If Virginia Tech or Texas stumbles, and USC runs the table we could see them playing Florida or Alabama for the title.

Ohio State (5-1): If the Buckeyes get through the last three weeks of their Big-10 schedule unscathed, they’ll be shouting for National consideration from the Buckeye friendly voters. Prior to the season it seemed like only Penn State was a road block on Nov. 7 in their quest, but it turns out their final two games after could help their cause. They get respected Iowa in the Shoe’ Nov 14 and then go to Michigan for their finale Nov. 21. They’ll need a lot of help in front of them to have any shot playing for the title, but they’re still technically still alive.

Cincinnati (5-0): They have been consistent all season, but have tough games remaining at South Florida this week, West Virginia on Nov. 13, and at Pittsburgh to close out the season. Even though the Big East is a BCS Conference, their lack of playing a quality schedule will stack up poorly against the one loss teams ahead of them. Until that time comes, voters will keep them on the back end of polls further hurting their chances no matter what they do.

Buckeye FG Saves Books From Middle

The Buckeyes opened -13½ favorites over unbeaten Wisconsin and the line was pushed Thursday to -16. By kickoff on Saturday, Ohio State was sitting at -14½. With the score 28-13 early in the fourth quarter, the Buckeyes made what seemed like a meaningless field goal, but it helped the books avoid getting middled on the sharp Wisky buy-back at 16, 15½, and 15. The public didn’t want anything to do with the Badgers and still laid the Buckeyes at any number on their parlays.

Buffs Bully Longhorns Around

At least they did for the first half, which gave No. 2 ranked Texas a huge scare at half time when lowly Colorado lead 14-10 at the break. Texas eventually won 38-14, but they didn’t cover. They also gave the National Media, many of whom went to bed on the east coast before the final results, a not too glowing perception of Longhorn football after watching No. 3 Alabama roll easy over a ranked Ole Miss team in the afternoon.

Texas managed only 313 yards against Colorado with only 46 yards coming on the ground. Even Toledo was able to compile 624 yards against Colorado. The biggest disparity besides the score was the penalties which went 20-8 in Texas’ favor.

Sharps Bet, then The Followers

Houston opened a -3 point favorite last week at Mississippi State. After being hit a few times by the Sharps, by Thursday, Miss St. was a -1½ favorite. Naturally when everyone see‘s Gordon Gekko make a move everyone else has to follow and by kickoff State was a -3 point favorite. Of course, without even having to see the game, we all know what happened… YES, Gekko goes to jail and Houston wins by 7 and the house wins all bets.

Line Moves of the Week

Kent State opened getting +5 at home and was bet down to +1½ by kickoff, with Kent State winning outright 55-36. Chalk one up to that sharp group and their knack for getting solid info of MAC games before anyone else. Hmmm, why is it that MAC games became part of the regular rotation a few years ago instead of on the limited added game list?

Mississippi was bet down from the opener of +6½ to +4 by kickoff in their home game against Alabama. The Tide rolled easily 22-3.

Army was a home dog getting +10½ from Vanderbilt and by kickoff, Army was +8½. The Army gets the straight up win 16-13.

Change of Heart?

Duke was bet down from +16½ to +14½ on Thursday, but then bet back up to 16 with NC State money by kickoff. The first move was the right one as Duke won outright 49-28.

ACC Teams Involved in Steam Plays
Every week a correlation has occurred with middle-tiered ACC teams getting bet on or against. Somebody has a really good read with Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, NC State, and Maryland. Week after week, those teams have bet on or against by the sharps more than any conference, including the MAC.

Watch every Tuesday for a brand new College Notebook article

NFL Notebook Week 5: Broncos & Falcons Help Books

by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

The 13 pro football games on Sunday had six favorites and seven underdogs covering the spread, which made for a winning day for most Nevada sports books.

The books were hoping to beat a couple of the big favorites, but were only able to knock one of them down, which could have been the igniter to start an awful day.

However, their luck prevailed. Despite three of the four double digit favorites coming in easy, many of the parlays were quickly wiped out when other shorter favorites – like San Francisco and New England – failed to cover.

"We had a very exciting day in the book with emotions high on each side of the counter," said South Point Sports Book Director Bert Osborne. "The public won a few games and we won a few."

The few the public had going early on simply required betting against the league’s bad teams – the Rams, Buccaneers, and Raiders. They also didn’t like the Lions, but their late touchdown helped make the only winner for the books against the double digit favorites.

When factoring in how other public teams like the Cowboys, Panthers, and Bills failed to cover, things started to turn the houses’ way. This was well after agonizing with the early drama of the Giants, Eagles and Vikings blowouts before the first quarters had even ended.

Then the late games came with the high-profile game of the day in which everyone loved the Patriots.

"The Broncos winning was our best decision of the day," Osborne said. "I can’t believe that no one is giving Denver any respect. Josh McDaniels had such a tough start there with all the negative publicity that I guess there is still some lingering doubts that his way isn’t going to work out, but it looks like his entire team is behind him all the way."

The Broncos 20-17 overtime win was the fourth straight-up underdog win of the day joining the Browns, Bengals and Falcons.

"The 49ers game was good for us against the public, but we had some big late money come on the Falcons," said Osborne.

The 49ers had opened as a 2-point favorite and was bet up to -2.5 through Saturday, but dropped all the way to pick by kickoff. The sharps were also on the side of the Broncos. Denver money came early in the week when the line was +3.5 points and stayed at +3 until kickoff.

One of the other sides the sharps were on was the Titans getting 4-points at home against the Colts. The public didn’t want much to do with the winless Titans with most betting the Colts, putting the sharps and books on the same side again.

The Colts’ 31-9 win was the final football game posted on Sunday and most books took a loss on it just because it was the final team on many parlay cards. Even though the total was bet down from the opener of 46.5 to 44.5 by kickoff, the game staying under was the best scenario because the late "bail out" parlay of the day was the Colts and over.

Denver still gets no respect

While the Broncos have won some close games contributing to their 5-0 record, rather than saying they’re lucky, how about the notion that Josh McDaniels made them mentally tough from the first day he got there?

The defense is leading the way, but last week the offense showed it has finally come together with great performances by Kyle Orton, who has Brandon Marshall fully involved as ever. This Monday they travel to San Diego for an AFC West divisional game where the Chargers will be favored by 4.

Anderson better than Quinn?

Cleveland’s Derek Anderson completed only 2 passes in 17 attempts on Sunday for a whopping 22 yards and a sweet QB rating of 15.1. But, who cares? The Browns won their first game of the year 6-3, thanks to some timely Bills turnovers and Jamal Lewis moving the chains.

So far, so good for Eric ManGENIUS in making the QB move when he did. Two weeks ago the Browns almost beat the Bengals in overtime the week after Mangini made the quarterback change. Brady Quinn may still be the QB of the future, but it’s apparent Anderson has something that makes the team better even when he isn’t good.

Back Door Cover of the Week

With less than five minutes remaining in the Steelers-Lions game, you could hear a simultaneous array of explicit words at sports books throughout Nevada when Daunte Culpepper hit Dennis Northcutt for a 25-yard TD pass making the score 28-20. The Steelers were 11-point favorites and were the only double digit favorite not to cover on Sunday. Had the Lions not scored, there would have been a serious run on four and five team parlays hit by the public.

The Winless Strike Again

There is a nice four-way battle for teams trying to match the Lions 0-16 record set last season. The leading candidates are the Rams, Titans, Chiefs and Buccaneers, all at 0-5. Tampa Bay has history on their side with a run in 1976-77, but the Rams may win this Derby on the basis of their "talent" and "leadership."

Great Weekend of Picks in Pro & College Football by Mike T & Roberts

Cha-Ching! Mike T and Roberts selections go a combined 6-0 on Sunday and the College Selections go 4-2 on Saturday. We'll be back next Friday and Saturday for more winning selections.


Read More on how the sharps, public, and Sports Books did over the weekend from my VegasInsider.com article.

Roberts Pro Football Picks: Lions, Browns, and Vikings Look Nice

Lions +10.5 vs. Steelers: Not sure how long I can ride with the Lions, but I’m on them again this week. Of all the big favorites this week in the NFL, this looks like the one game that doesn’t get there just because of how the Steelers play to the level of their opponents and the life that the Lions have in them. Big Plays for Calvin Johnson this week who keeps the game close.
Pick: Steelers 24-20

Vikings -10 @ Rams: Looks like a trap, but the Rams will have to rely on Kyle Boller and a bunch of no-namers at WR to make it happen since they are on their third string WR corps. Favre lets the ground game take over and Peterson has a big day.
Pick: Vikings 24-3

Browns +6 @ Bills: The new offensive scheme led by Derek Anderson, Mohamed Massaquoi, and Jerome Harrison will do enough to get their first win of the season. The Bills are in no mans land with too much talent on offense and no direction from the staff. This may be the upset of the day against an over-confident Bills squad.
Pick: Browns 23-20

Mike T's Week 5 Picks: 2 Dogs and Something Else

by Mike T.

Last week was great for anyone who likes to lay big numbers. They all got there. Unfortunately for me that's just not my style. Take last week's Saints-Jets game for example, I wrote "I do think the Saints will win by two scores or more but I just don't like laying 7 or more. I'm going with the over in this one". Because of my refusal to lay 7 or more it wound up costing me a little. I went 1-2 for the week putting me at 6-6 for the season. I going to try to get back to taking a couple dogs this week.

Falcons +2.5 @ 49ers
The niners are riding high right now and if you've been betting them you're doing well (4-0 ATS). I think that comes to an end this week. The SF defense was outstanding last week but the offense didn't really much ( not that they had to). I do not see a repeat performance from this young impressive disciplined defense. This opponent is going to bring a much tougher challenge to the 49ers than the likes of Sea or StL. Atlanta has had 2 weeks to prepare for SF as they are coming off a bye week. They bring with them a 100.4 rated passer a solid ground game and a solid defense.
Falcons 24 49ers 16

Broncos +3.5 vs Patriots

If in week 1,I told said that Klye Orton would have more touchdowns, a higher passer rating, and more yards per attempt than Tom Brady by week 5 everyone would have told me to check myself into a mental institution. Well a crazy as is sounds, he does. Couple that with the fact that Denver has only allowed 6.5 point per game and you have yourself a surprisingly good football team. Tom Brady hasn't put up the massive numbers most expected yet and I doubt he does it this week either. I can see this one being a low scoring game with the Broncos pulling it out in the end.
Broncos 14 Patriots 13

Cardinals -5.5 vs Texans

This is the only favorite I like this week. The Cards have had 2 weeks to prepare for this very average Texans team. To me this is the week that Arizona has to make a statement if they want to be considered a playoff caliber team. I think the Cards are going to come out firing on all cylinders taking an early lead and never looking back. The Texans do have a pretty good offense so we should see a shootout but I think the Cards will win the turnover battle which will put them up by more than one score.
Cardinals 34 Texans 21

Roberts College Football Selections: LSU Should Take Advantage of Florida

LSU (5-0) +7.5 vs. Florida (4-0): This is a tough spot for the top ranked Gators who will be forced to make a decision on Tim Tebow real quick. If he plays, he’ll play cautious and not be the battering Ram QB we have all grown to admire. If he doesn’t, it puts backup John Brantley in a tough position for his first start at the toughest road crowd in College under the lights.

The winner of this game has gone on to win the BCS title game the last three seasons. LSU has won 21 straight night game at Tiger Stadium and 32 straight on Saturday night games there. This looks like a perfect position for LSU to pull off the upset and getting points is a bonus because it should be a tough low scoring game.

Alabama (5-0) -4.5 @ Mississippi (3-1): Bama opened -6.5 and has been bet against thus far. Big game for both teams. Ole Miss has only playing at home once this year while struggling offensively on the road. Alabama has the weight of being a top-5 team on the road, a year when their falling more than normal. Have seen more consistency with Bama against good teams than what Ole Miss has shown against mediocre teams.

New Mexico State (2-3) +10 vs Utah State (1-3): This line opened 13.5 and has been bet down, but can’t find any reason for Utah State to be favored that high on the road other than their three quality losses to Utah, Texas A&M, and BYU.

Mississippi State (2-3) -1.5 vs Houston (3-1): The Cougars opened a 3 point favorite, but I have seen enough of Miss State to move the ball effectively in losses to LSU and Georgia Tech the last two weeks to believe they’ll play well this week. Houston’s deflating loss at El Paso as a huge favorite last week will still linger.

Nevada (1-3) -10 vs Louisiana Tech (2-2) Friday Night: After watching the Pack dismantle UNLV last week scoring 63 points, while having 3 players rushing for over 170 yards, I think they will continue to roll this week.

Duke (2-3) +14.5 @ N.C. State (3-2): Game opened 16.5 and has been bet down. This is the second straight week the sharps on picking on the Wolf Pack after driving the Wake Forest line to the favorite side, and they got there.

Last Week: 1-3
Season Record: 8-14

Las Vegas Money Moves This Week: How & Why The Books Move The Line

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The college football line moves are interesting to watch each week just to see what games the sharps pick on. I say "pick on" because it’s a tiered process of how the line evolves. A sportsbook has a few consultants who use a variety of methods to come up with rating. The book gets those recommendations, and then does what they want with the quality they pay for.

Most books use those consultant numbers to shade an opening line one way or another based on what the consensus, or market, number is out there using the top Las Vegas SportsBooks and the known high volume off-shore books as a barometer.

At that point, by conforming to what the market dictates, the initial lines paid for from the consultants are already diminished. On many occasions, the line will move to where the paid service recommended which gets us to the folks who force the line moves.

Read More....

NFL Notebook: Las Vegas Books Small Winner in Week 4

by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

The sports books struggled on Saturday with a lot key favored teams covering, making it their least profitable Saturday of the season after five weeks.

In pro football, the books had gone 1-2 vs. the public through the first three weeks, but week four started out great. Sports books cashed in big when the highly-favored Bengals failed to cover the spread against Cleveland.

"We did really well in the early games with teams like the Titans and Ravens not doing well," said MGM-MIRAGE Race and Sports Director Jay Rood. "But in the late games with favorites like Saints and 49ers coming through, we gave some of it back."

The encouraging note for the books is that the two teams that had been a virtual bet-against all season, the Browns and Buccaneers, covered their spreads despite losing.

The downside is that a team like the Saints continues to roll much to the delight of the betting public, who throw the Saints on just about every parlay ticket because it has been a given that they’ll win and cover no matter what the spread is.

"Right now, we’re over-inflating the pro lines to start the week," said Lucky’s Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro. "With the favorites coming in like they have and the small money (public) coming on the favorites regardless, we’re looking to see if we can tempt the smarts a little early and watch every game very closely throughout the week."

The Colts are like the Saints, who have become one those public teams that are bet regardless of how high the line is. After not covering week one, they have rolled to three straight covers including Sunday’s no sweat game against the Seahawks that allowed bettors to kick back and relax by halftime.

This week the Colts are -4 at the winless Titans, a tough game, but nevertheless, one that will still be bet by most of the public. The Saints have a bye week, so the public will have to look elsewhere for making their easy money this week.

NFL Matchup of the Week

The pro football matchup of the week has the 3-1 New England Patriots visiting the 4-0 Denver Broncos. The matchup’s underlying theme has rookie head coach Josh McDaniels facing his mentor, Bill Belichik – both are sure to wear their matching gray hoodies.

Despite Denver’s impressive win over the favored Cowboys last week, the Patriots still come in as a -3.5 point favorite. Both teams answered a lot of up in the air questions that were asked prior to their matches.

The Patriots moved the ball effectively on offense, yet still not to their own expectations, or their fans who are still waiting for the 2007 version of the Pats to return. Their greatest accomplishment may have been slowing down the Ravens high powered offense that had run and thrown on everyone all season.

The Broncos 17-10 win over Dallas proved that their stingy defense against the likes of Cincinnati, Cleveland and Oakland may have been more about them just being good, rather than citing the faults of their opponents.

Dallas still managed 317 total yards, well below their season average, but holding the Cowboys scoreless for the final three quarters was the most impressive feat. Denver still ranks No. 1 in total defense and points allowed with only 26 through four games, and is the only team in the NFL to have not allowed a touchdown pass.

The underdog role will be Denver’s for at least their next four games, which have them on the road at San Diego and Baltimore and then at home against the Steelers. Depending on how they do in those games, and if Washington’s offense shows up anytime soon, will determine whether or not they’re favored in their Nov. 15 matchup at the Redskins.

Parlays of the Week

Despite the Saints being off this week, the majority of public plays will have the following teams linked: Minnesota -11 at St. Louis, Philly -13 vs. Tampa Bay, Indianapolis -4 at Tennessee and the Giants -15.5 vs. Oakland.

Should all four of those large favorites get there, the books will be in for a rough week five.

You can see some of the inflated prices that Vaccaro discussed earlier, but it’s likely the lines will go higher just because all four of the teams’ opponents are winless on the season.

In the case of teams like Kansas City, St. Louis, and Oakland, there’s no telling when these teams will put some offense into their attack, while at the same time playing a little defense. I really sympathize with the books trying to combat against those dregs on a weekly basis because it doesn’t look like they’ll get anything going for some time.

Week Four Game Balls

Jacksonville’s David Garrard continued the league’s assault on the Titans pass defense with 323 yards passing and three touchdowns in the Jaguars’ 37-17 win. Pittsburgh’s Rashard Mendenhall finally lived up to his first round draft pick billing as he stepped in for an injured Willie Parker and ran for 165 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Chargers.

Smart Call of the Week

I’m Cowboys Offensive Coordinator Jason Garrett near the goal line and down by 7 with no timeouts left, time running out, and it’s third down. My supposed star receiver, Roy Williams is out with an injury, but I still have All-Pro tight-end Jason Witten. Rather than throw to Witten on any of the last two downs, I use him as a decoy in blocking assignments.

I have two receivers flanked left and one to the right. One of my guys on the left is the lanky leaper, Miles Austin, covered by 5’10” journeyman cornerback Andre Goodman. On the right, I have little used Sam Hurd, who has 28 catches in his four year career, going against arguably the best cornerback in football in Champ Bailey.

So guess who I’m going to? That’s right, I’m going right at the All-Pro because I‘m crafty that way. I zig when they zag, because their thinking I’m going to go with my best at their weakest player, so I’m going to outsmart them.

For two straight plays, good Tony Romo passes on slants to Hurd were batted down by Bailey which ended the game and led to Denver’s victory formation in their 17-10 win. Jerry Jones is sure to let his feelings be known about that final sequence.

College Football Notebook: At least 6th Top 5 Team to Fall Again This Week

by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

SEC’s Florida, LSU battle in Baton Rouge

This week we get another chance to watch a top-5 team fall out again, which will be the sixth time this season. The No. 1 ranked Florida Gators travel to Baton Rouge to face LSU for what is sure to be an epic battle and help shape the face of the 2009 season between the two teams that have won the last three National Championships.

The winner of the big game under the lights will be in the driver’s seat and if the winner is LSU, things could get real interesting just because LSU has a much tougher road ahead of them. Following Florida, the Tigers have to play Auburn and then they have two tough road games later in the season at Alabama and Mississippi.

Florida’s road gets much easier if they are able to dispose of the Tigers this week with only a road game at South Carolina presenting any real danger. They don’t have to play either Alabama or Mississippi on their schedule unless it’s in the SEC Championship game.

The big story coming into the game is the status of Tim Tebow after suffering a concussion in Florida’s win at Kentucky last week. Team officials have been quiet about all reports which causes some concern, but it would be a major shocker if he didn’t play.

Since 2000, the two teams have played to a near stalemate with Florida holding a 5-4 lead. Over the same time span, each team has won two BCS Titles and three SEC Titles. Needless to say this game is huge and it will be interesting to see what side the bettors lean towards.

New Ranked Teams This Week

Hard to believe a 5-0 SEC team is just getting introduced to the top-25 this week, but Auburn under new coach Gene Chizik made that leap and find themselves No. 17. South Florida’s win at Syracuse gave them a 5-0 record and they joined the party at No. 23. Missouri was ranked earlier last month and fell out of the polls without losing, but they’re back in at No. 24. South Carolina is also ranked for the first time this season at No. 25.

Undefeated Hawkeyes Hopes Alive, Barely

No. 13 ranked Iowa is 5-0 for the first time in the current coaching regime after surviving a big scare from Arkansas State, winning 24-21 as a big 21 point favorite after being up 21-7 to start the fourth quarter. It’s possible the Haweyes were looking ahead to their game this week against Michigan and the dreams that could be as the Conference representative in BCS play. Iowa has now won 8 straight dating back to last season and just as a refresher note, Iowa was the only Big-10 team to win a bowl game last season.

Buffs Bettors get Win Gift Wrapped

Colorado got a nice back door cover on Thursday night at West Virginia. With the score 35-17, the Buffs heaved a deep pass down the sideline for a touchdown to cover the 17 point spread with only three-seconds remaining, much to the joy of the folks who pushed the game down to 16 by kickoff.

Herbstreit Finds the Best Dogs

The former Ohio State Buckeye quarterback turned analyst for ESPN’s Gameday is worth listening to for bettors just for his insights on the live underdogs he chooses. He caught my attention when he called for UNLV to upset Oregon State, which they almost did, losing 23-21, but still covering the 7 points.

A week later he went through all kinds of reasons why Washington would beat USC as a 19 point dog, and sure enough he was right on the money, not only with the cover, but the straight up win. Who calls for that type of dog to win outright?

Last week he had a feeling about Virginia Tech being in a let down spot at Duke, a 17-point dog. Duke ended up playing an inspired game and moved the ball well against the tough Hokie defense but fell 34-26.

College Line Move of the Week

The best move came early and often on Michigan State at home against Michigan. The original line had Michigan favored by -1, but quickly moved to State being favored until it eventually closed with the Spartans being a -4 point favorite.

This was one of the strongest plays by a top service and it came through with a 26-20 win in overtime, but not without causing some sweat thanks to more late game heroics by Michigan Freshman QB Tate Forcier who tied the game with seconds left. In the end, it was Forcier who forced an errant pass, intercepted in overtime that doomed Michigan.

Because Michigan failed to tackle following the OT interception, State ran it in 25 yards out for the clinching score meaning that all the late followers of the service play got paid too because most of them laid -3.5 or -4, when the suggested send was laying up to -2.5. It was likely State was just lining up for the game winning field goal when the Wolverines true weakness, tackling, exposed itself again.

USC Good or Cal Just Bad?

The best assumption after USC’s 30-3 win at Cal last week is that Cal is not quite the team many of us thought they were as they go tumbling out of the top-25. USC on the other hand can have their struggles attributed to just being a young team that will experience some leadership issues with their freshman quarterbacks.

USC’s system is sound and when they click on all facets of special teams, defense and the running game like they did Saturday, the QB becomes less of an issue. The Ohio State win gave them some pre-mature confidence, but the Cal game gave the young USC uniform their swagger back.

Despite getting romped in their last two games by conference teams, Cal still feels they have some ball to play.

"I have confidence in these guys," Cal coach Jeff Tedford told reporters after Saturday night’s loss to the Trojans. "There is a lot of football left to be played. There is no way in the world that we are folding our tent. I don’t believe that about this team."

Mater Dei High Can’t Even Do That

UNLV was tied 28-28 with winless Nevada Saturday and then it got ugly as the Wolf Pack reeled off 35 straight points to close the game out 63-28. What’s worse is that UNLV allowed three different Nevada runners to rush for over 170 yards and compile 773 total yards on offense.

Boise State Drops

Not quite sure why Boise State decided to play UC-Davis at this juncture of the season, but their 34-16 win Saturday cost them one spot in the poll. Despite winning the game, they got passed by Virginia Tech for the No. 5 position.

Las Vegas Sports Books a Small Winner Over Weekend: Huge Favorites for Week 5 of NFL

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider,com

Las Vegas Sports Books struggled on Saturday with a lot key favored teams covering, making it their least profitable Saturday of the season after five weeks. In Pro Football, the books had gone 1-2 against the Public through the first three weeks, but week four started out great.

“We did really well in the early games with teams like the Titans and Ravens not doing well, said MGM-Mirage Race and Sports Director Jay Rood. “But in the late games with favorites like Saints and 49ers coming through, we gave some of it back.”

Over at the Las Vegas Hilton, Executive Director Jay Kornegay had similar results.

“We lost a little on Saturday and won a little on Sunday.” said Kornegay. “I wouldn’t call it a push, but overall we were slight winner.“

The encouraging note for the books is that the two teams that had been virtual bet against all season, the Browns and Buccaneers, covered their spreads despite losing.

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Mike T's Week 4 Pro Football Picks

by Mike T.

The first few weeks of the season I usually try to find some dogs to cover or win outright. Last week I had a tough time trying to find three of them and wound up going 1-2 putting me at 5-4 for the season. This is another tough week for me to try and find some dogs. There are 8 games that have the favorite laying a touchdown or more. With that said I only have one small home dog this week.

Miami +1 vs BuffaloChad Pennington's injury makes Miami a home dog. This doesn't seem to be as much of an issue as most would think Pennington has thrown for just over 400 yards with 1 TD, 2 ints, and a fumble lost in three games. Not exactly the type of numbers that would scare a defense. Dolphins QBs aren't asked to do much with their running game and the Wildcat. The Bills will be going without their Starting MLB and their two starting safeties. I expect to see a heavy dose of running from Brown and Williams keeping the Bills O of the field.
Miami 24 Bills 17

Cincinnati -5 1/2 at Cleveland
This is the first favorite that I am taking this year. Here we have two teams headed in opposite directions. The Browns may be the worst team in the league right now, while the Bengals seem for real and if they are these are the type of games they have to win. The Browns have one of the worst running attacks and with injuries to three linemen and a doubtful Jamal Lewis it will be even harder to run the ball. The Bengals have a nice balance on offense and should have their way with the Browns.
Cincinnati 27, Cleveland 13

Saints -7 vs JetsThe Jets are coming into a very loud and energetic Superdome without CBs Lito Sheppard and Donald Strictland. CB Darrelle Revis is also nursing a hammy but will go. That can't be good for them. This game kind of reminds me of the '85 Bears-Dolphins Monday night game. Buddy Ryan's 46 defense vs Marino's high powered offense. Fast forward a quarter century and we see Rex Ryan's blitz happy D vs Brees' use the whole field O. This game may be close for a quarter or two but in the end I think the Saints are going to roll. With the Jets thin secondary Brees will eventually find guys wide open in mismatches. I do think the Saints will win by two scores or more but I just don't like laying 7 or more. I'm going with the over in this one
Saints 38 Jets 24

Roberts Week 4 Pro Football Picks: 2 Sides & 2 Totals

Lions +10 @ Bears:
This game rests entirely with Jay Cutler and based on what Cutler has done in his career as a big favorite, compounded with how well the Lions have played on the road in the last year make this spread way too high.

Cutler has always played to the level of his opponents at home. He has never had that killer instinct to just destroy lesser teams and part of the reason is that he’s selfish. If he blows out a team, how is he going to throw 40 times in game when the coach will likely want to run the clock out? How is he going to get his Pro Bowl stats if he plays a smart game?

Detroit should play an inspired, loose game Sunday led by the special teams of Aaron Brown and a couple of timely Cutler intercepts. Matt Stafford will do just enough to the control the game which will likely include a nice long hookup with Cal Johnson. This could actually be an upset. If that were to happen, would hate to be Cutler in Chicago on Monday. Milton Bradley thought he had it bad.
Pick: Bears 22-20

Patriots -2 vs. Ravens:
All conventional wisdom points to the Ravens with their new high tech offense and their always consistent defense to take down anyone. All the stats point to the Ravens in every angle imaginable. However, The Pats as a short favorite at home is too much to pass up.

The addition of Wes Welker will give Tom Brady his crutch back, and the added weight of every bettor in the world jumping on the Ravens bandwagon this week, abandoning their normal pattern of taking the Pats, is too much for the wooden wheels to hold. Look for Brady to find his deep ball a few times to Randy Moss in a statement game.
Pick: Patriots 34-21

Dallas/Denver OVER 42:
The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook opened the game total at 44 and has been bet down to 42 while other books still have the game at 43. Last week, Denver’s total was 38 at Oakland and the Cowboys were 46 Monday night against the Panthers making the initial line appear to favor the Cowboys tempo as does the current side which has the road team bet up from an opener of -2.5 to -3.

The Broncos have the leagues number one rated defense in yardage and points scored against, but have compiled those numbers against the offenses of Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Oakland. Their offense appeared to struggle throughout all their games, but they have been affective at churning minutes off the clock with short passes and a strong running game ultimately wearing out teams in the second half.

It would appear that the initial total looks closer to what it should be, but with money betting the total down and betting the favorite up to -3, the thought process is the Cowboys will be able to expose the Broncos defense and the dink and dunk offense of Denver won’t be as good in catch up mode, unless Brandon Stokely saves the day again.

The running back issue with the Cowboys is not an issue because Tashard Choice has proven to be just as effective as Marion Barber and Julius Jones. The Broncos look to have gelled more and more each week with Josh McDaniels new system and now they finally get to have a fully functional Brandon Marshall added to the mix along with Knowshon Moreno.

All signs look to having this game resemble Dallas’ game tempo with the Giants than it does against the Panthers which should make this a very high scoring, entertaining game.
Pick: Denver 32-31

Jets/Saints total OVER 45.5:
This game opened 46 with the Saints favored by 6.5 and his since dropped a half on the total, but been bet up to Saints -7. Despite only allowing 7 points at Buffalo last week, the Saints defense is really not that good. Rex Ryan will let Mark Sanchez let it fly to expose their weakness and Thomas Jones will carry the load with timely runs.

Leon Washington is at a point now where he is ready to get looses and the Saints special teams are the perfect team for him to bust loose on. The flying Jets defense will slow Brees enough to keep the game close and put the Jets in a possible position to win. The entire world is betting the Saints and that is never a good sign, not to mention all the stars being aligned for last weeks favorite cover-fest.
Pick: Saints 30-27

Roberts College Football Picks: 4 Dogs to Get The Weekend Started Right

LSU +3 @ Georgia: This line is low because of the devalued opinion of LSU based on last weeks struggle at Mississippi State where LSU won 30-26. The Tigers have a big game at home against Florida that everyone has circled and there is a thought that they’ll be looking ahead and not coming in focused. They also have the pressure of being a top-5 team now which has turned bad for five other teams this season. All past trends, including Les Miles poor record as a road underdog (0-3) in SEC play, make it a tough position for LSU. This is why LSU will win this week, if that makes any sense.

Cal +5 vs. USC: USC is in a tough position here. After winning ugly late against the Buckeyes, the young Trojans have struggled to recapture the same type of Championship mentality in their last two games against Washington and Washington State. Cal just got embarrassed by Oregon, but should be better in this match despite going 1-7 against Pete Carroll. This isn’t the same USC squad of years past. Their Freshman QB play has been awful this year other than one late drive in Columbus. Jahvid Best will continue his Heisman run with a great day against a good defense.

UCLA +5 @ Stanford: The Bruins are the only undefeated team in the PAC-10 and have won five straight over Stanford. Rick Neuheisel has something brewing in Westwood and the defense will carry them to victory this week. A great money line play with an under rated UCLA squad.

Syracuse +6 vs. South Florida: This is a perfect let down spot for the Bulls after their huge win at Florida State last week. Cuse QB Greg Paulus has put up 35 points in back to back games and the Carrierdome should provide a hungry atmosphere for a win. A good money line play this week, but getting six in what should be a close game is even better.

Last Week: 1-3
Season Record: 7-11

Fantasy Football Week 4: Bye Weeks Begin, Starters Can Be Found Under The Radar

by Micah Roberts
Las Vegas Review Journal

Three weeks into the NFL season, there's a small sampling of team data that can help make fantasy owners' decisions for the bye weeks easier. Decisions must be made on whom to start from unused players deep on the roster and even for those regular starters who are underperforming.

Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia are off this week.

The first thing to look at is how your player is being featured in the offense. Has he been part of the game plan on a weekly basis, and was it conditional only because of the situation the team was in whether winning or losing? How many touches are your running backs getting, and how many times are your wide receivers getting targeted by their quarterbacks?

While receptions are an obvious tool to see how involved a wide receiver is in a game plan, you can dig deeper in your research.

An example of a player going under the radar, and one who should be considered for starts even beyond bye weeks, is Seattle's Nate Burleson.

Read More Here.........

Las Vegas Money Moves: Books Over-Inflating Lines To Combat Public Favorites

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The first three weeks of pro football have been tough for the sportsbooks with most only having a marginal winning day in Week 2. Every bookmaker has their own philosophy of how to adjust to the times, if at all.

Some bookmakers like to ride out the cycle and not change too much of their philosophy knowing that it will come back, because ultimately the public loses in the long run. Others like to be pro-active and change with the trends eliminating risk as much as possible from the week to week.

Lucky’s legendary Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro has seen it all through his years of bookmaking in Las Vegas and is following his own expertise in how to combat what’s going on with the pro football favorites, in particular the obvious public teams.

“Right now, we’re over-inflating the Pro lines to start the week,” Vaccaro said. “With the favorites coming in like they have and the small money (public) coming on the favorites regardless, we’re looking to see if we can tempt the smarts a little early and watch every game very closely throughout the week.”

Thus far, most of the real line movements spurred by big money has been on game day, usually about 90 minutes or less to kickoff.

Read More Here.........

College Football Notebook: Top 10 Teams Take Another Tumble

By Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

But Florida still reigning at Number 1

It seems the last place any of the top college football teams would want to be is in the top 10 of any of the polls because lately it’s been the death curse for a program. This season alone, after four weeks of games, ten teams haven fallen from the top 10 with heart-breaking losses.

Last season after four weeks, there were only five teams ousted from the top 10; two years ago there was only four teams knocked off.

Last week, Miami, Mississippi, Penn State, and Cal all took a tumble opening the way for one-loss teams to move up the charts. Virginia Tech lost early in the season to Alabama, but it hasn’t cost them much as of yet, because they’ve shot all the way to No. 6 after beating Miami soundly as a home underdog.

Taking their one loss really hard in the poll was Cal who dropped all the way to No. 24 in the AP Poll. Think there isn’t an East Coast bias with the writers? Penn State was ranked close to Cal prior to their game last week; Penn State was at home playing a decent Iowa team while Cal was at the frenzied atmosphere of Eugene playing a tough Oregon squad. Both teams lost, but Cal took a giant tumble, while Penn State only dropped to No. 15.

Boise State jumped in the polls to No. 5 and has taken on the lead role as the small conference voice campaigning for a BCS Championship bid, following BYU and Utah’s failures two weeks ago. Mountain West representative TCU jumped up to No. 11 and remains unbeaten.

The new small conference player with a big voice is the impressive offense of the Houston Cougars from Conference-USA; they’re now ranked No. 12 after their impressive 29-28 win over Texas Tech.

Through all the upsets, the top 3 still remain intact and undefeated with Florida, Texas, and Alabama. No. 4 ranked LSU has a huge date in Baton Rouge in two weeks against the Gators. Florida is hopeful that Tim Tebow will be ready to go after getting knocked out with a concussion at Kentucky last week. The week off should do him well.

Big Moves of the Week

(c/o LV Hilton)

Minnesota -1½ at Northwestern: This game was bet early and often throughout the week in which Northwestern opened as a -3 favorite Monday. By Thursday, the road team was pushed to a -1½ favorite where it closed Saturday. The Gophers won the game 35-24 proving the move valid.

Maryland -1 vs. Rutgers: Pushed from Rutgers a -3 point favorite Monday to pick, and then finally to Maryland being the favorite by game day. Rutgers won the game easily 34-13 showing that any wager on the Terps may be a bad bet from here on out.

Boston College -2½ vs. Wake Forest: Wake opened a -1 home dog but was systematically bet to make B.C. the favorite. B.C. won 27-24.

Wyoming +3 vs. UNLV: Rebels opened up -5½ and was bet down to -3 by Thursday morning where it stayed until kickoff. The Cowboys took it to the Rebels with a 30-27 win continuing UNLV’s awful road record within the Mountain West.

BYU -18½ vs. Colorado State: Opened -15 and bet up throughout the week. The Cougars ended up winning by 19 and covering all bets.

Big Games this Week

Dan O’Brien, who works with Las Vegas Sports Consultants, has the early suggested lines for the two big games this week. "We opened USC -4 at Cal, but we’ve seen off-shore lines move to -5½ since," he said.

Cal’s plummet in public opinion is demonstrated early on by the move, even with USC’s laydown against Washington State as a -46 point favorite when they couldn’t even break 30 points themselves.

"The other big game of the day is Oklahoma-Miami," said O’Brien. "We didn’t offer a line because of the status of Sam Bradford, who could play, but I have seen the Sooners -6½ off-shore."

The Rebels are hoping to take the cannon from Reno this week, but the problem is that UNLV is on the road which is bad news. Nevertheless, O’Brien says Nevada is only a two-point favorite with some off-shore books up to -4½ on Sunday night, following the trend of betting against the Rebels on the road.

Sports Good Day Saturday

With all the action on a college football Saturday being so hard to figure, an official statement has come out on how the first four weeks of the season has gone. "The season hasn’t gone the public’s way in any of the weeks," said South Point Director of Sports Books Bert Osborne.

Not much else is needed to figure out how well the Saturday’s have gone thus far. Let’s just say the books are doing well on Saturday’s.

NFL Notebook: Saints Are Now The Public Favorites

by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

Every year in pro football there is an "It" team in which the entire betting public attempts to ride week after week throughout the season, and usually get there more times than not. This year it is the New Orleans Saints who have wowed the audience with a seemingly unstoppable offense.

"The Saints are one of the favorites of the public thus far because of their high powered offense and the fact that they have covered easily in their games," said Art Manteris, vice-president of Station Casino’s Las Vegas Sports Books. "I had a few respected people tell me early on how high they were on the Saints, and wagers on season totals reflected so."

Station’s opened the Saints to win 9 games, under -135, and ended up closing 9 over -120. A huge variable in that total’s equation, the road games at Philadelphia and Buffalo, was answered when the Saints and Bills both destroyed the McNabb-less Eagles, making the early moves seem to have a huge edge at this juncture.

Last Sunday the Saints rolled into Buffalo and made it appear that it was a close game, and then reeled off a running attack that closed the game out like all top covering teams do. It wasn’t about Drew Brees throwing 300 yards plus, it was about total game control.

Next up for the Saints?

Could it be that we have a great match-up of two 3-0 teams this early in the season with the outspoken Jets traveling to New Orleans this week? Of all the defenses in the league, the Rex Ryan posse looks like the most vicious and angry among them. He’s brought on a persona and swagger that all the players are going along with.

Pro Football Moves of the Week

The Eagles opened Monday at -9½ as a circled game. By Sunday, Chiefs money came in enough to drop the line to -7. Kansas City was never in the game as Philly won easily 34-14.

The public drove the Saints up from a -4½ favorite Monday to a closing number of -6 after being at -6½ for some time. The Saints covered easily.

The Oakland Raiders opened as -1½ point favorite on Monday but Broncos money moved the line to Denver -2½ by kickoff. The move was correct as Denver smoked the hapless Raiders in front of their home crowd of creatures.

Dead Game: There was virtually no action one way or another on the side or total of the Browns/Ravens game last week.

Sports Books Tough Day on Sunday

"We had a lot of risk with some of the favorites early on with the parlay cards and off the board parlays," said South Point Director of Sports Bert Osborne. "If it weren’t for the Vikings not covering their -6½ point spread, it could have been a lot worse when dealing with all the favorite parlays played throughout the day.

"A lot of those big spreads came in on the early games," Osborne continued. "The Ravens, Patriots, Giants, and Packers covered and the public was also with the Jets."

Though support came from the public on a lot of the favorites, the sharp players didn’t have many plays this week. Two of the only sharp moves of the day were on the Titans getting +2 and +1½ at the Jets.

"The public did well against the books on Sunday," said Osborne. "When the Bears came in along with the Saints and Broncos in the late games, it didn’t set up a great position for the house going into the night game with the Colts and Monday’s game with the Cowboys."

Despite the line moving on the Cardinals at home, the public kept betting the Colts, who they had all just seen beat the Dolphins last week. The Cowboys were also an attractive team just because no one wants Jake Delhomme on their ticket, and also the fact that the Cowboys lost their opener in their new stadium. They couldn’t lose two in row at home, could they?

Two-pt conversion of the week

Pittsburgh opened as -4½ favorite and was bet down to -3½ EVEN by kickoff. In the late stages of the game, the Bengals scored making the game Steelers 20-15 and did the right thing in going for a 2-pt conversion, but when they failed, it gave the Steelers and their bettors a nice cover for the time being. And then the Bengals came back with a late drive and converted two fourth-down conversions, and scored the game winning touchdown.

Broncos Looking Good

Denver controlled the clock for 36 minutes and ran for 215 yards on offense while holding the Raiders to 137 yards total offense in their 23-3 win at Oakland. The win gave the Broncos the top rated defense in yardage and points allowed. Kyle Orton has yet to throw an interception, but the Bronco offense did have a turnover, their first of the season.

Roberts Pro Football Picks: 3 Favorites to Make a Things Go Right!

NY Jets -2 vs. Titans (37): Line has gone up and then down. Jets look like a nice play despite maybe the Jets coming on a down cycle after the big win against the Patriots last week. They should get the win. Pick: Jets 28-21

Patriots -4.5 vs. Falcons (45.5): Line is sure to rise. The addition of Wes Welker makes the Pats that much better. Look for a beat down chowder style. Pick: Pats 31-17

Broncos -2 @ Oakland (37): Despite Oakland’s issues, it’s still a tough spot to play in. Broncos should do well with their risk-limited offense. The Broncos have the top defense in the league on points scored against. They’ll be good this week as well. Pick: Broncos 24 Raiders 6

Roberts College Football Picks of Week: Cal and Canes Win as Road Favorites

California -5 @ Oregon: Cal has won and covered the last three meetings between the two teams. Even though the trend has been to go against the top 10 teams playing on the road, Cal should be able to buck it and get the win with their balanced attack under Head Coach Jeff Tedford. The last time Oregon was getting points at home was in 2005 was USC laid -21 and won 45-21.

Miami -2 @ Virginia Tech: Miami is still flying under the radar in the minds of experts, but after they beat their third straight ranked team, Miami will finally start to get their due. Blacksburg is a tough place to play, but Nebraska almost did it last week losing 15-16. Miami’s QB Jacory Harris has been able to spread the ball around and make big plays in their two wins against two pretty good teams already in Florida State and Georgia Tech.

Penn State -9.5 vs. Iowa: Joe Paterno hasn’t covered the spread in any game this season, but this is their first real test with a light spread. Penn State is looking to avenge their loss at Iowa last season which ruined their chance at playing for the National Championship. Looks for Penn State to take care of business in this game and not allow the Hawkeyes to get any momentum at any juncture of the game.

Wyoming +3.5 vs. UNLV: In the last five seasons after a non-conference game, UNLV is 1-10 straight up as a favorite on the road. In the last two years, UNLV has gone 0-8 straight up against a Mountain West team on the road. Laying an initial line of -5.5 after the power ranking had Wyoming getting only +7 against the struggling Big-12 team of Colorado seems a little out of whack. Until UNLV can win on the road in conference play, they have to be bet against.

Last Week: 0-2
Season: 6-8


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MIke T's Week 3 Dogs: Bengals, Birds, & Bills Look Good

by Mike T.

After a 1-2 start in week 1 I came back last week with 3 money line dogs getting there. I'm now 4-2 on the season. I had the Chargers, Saints and Giants all winning outright. There were 9 dogs that covered last week. That is unusually high however, as I've said in previous posts that is what happens the first few weeks of the season. Whether it's odds makers putting to much emphasis on the past years performance or just simply hanging bad numbers, it happens every year. I don't expect to see 9 dogs cover again this week, in fact I'm having a tough time trying to find 3 of them.

There are a few small dogs that can get there like the Titans or the Seahawks (both +1) but I just don't like either of them enough to bet on them. Jeff Fischer should have his team fired up as the Jets ended their 10-0 run last year in blowout fashion. I just don't think the line is favorable for the dog here. If Tenn was getting 3-3 1/2 I'd be all over it.

Bengals +4 vs Steelers
Like last weeks Giants- Cowboys line this one just seems wrong to me. The 1-1 Steelers are 4 point road favorites against the division rival 1-1 Bengals. Really? This is a good example of the odds makers hanging a line based more on last year's performance than this year's. The Steelers are playing their second consecutive road game coming off a loss to the Bears, while the Bengals are coming back home after a huge win at Green Bay. If not for a miracle by Brandon Stokley the Bengals could very well be 2-0 while if not for 2 missed FGs by Rob Bironas the Steelers could be 0-2. Would the line still be Pitt-4 if that were the case? This line should be pick'em at best maybe even Cinn -1 or 2.
Bengals 24 Steelers 16

Falcons +4 at Patriots
Here is another situation where you have a team (NE) that could be 0-2 if Buffalo took a knee vs a solid 2-0 team. I don't have as much a problem with this line as the Pats are at home. Tom Brady does not look like to 50 TD quarterback he was 2 seasons ago. In fact, so far he's looked pretty bad. He doesn't look confident, he's not planting his foot when he throws and he looks a little nervous out there. Brady did show a bit of confidence in the 2nd half of week 1 but last week he looked like a rookie against the Jets. He didn't throw a TD for the first time in 3 years, was 23-47 and had an int.
Meanwhile the Falcons keep impressing me. I stayed away from them the first 2 weeks because I wasn't sure if they were a fluke last year. Well they're not, this is a team that is talented everywhere and should see the post season again. These may be two teams that are headed in different directions. I expect to see a heavy dose of Michael Turner against this very average Pats defense. Matt Ryan shouldn't have much of a problem finding his TE and WRs coming off of play-action. The Falcons defense should pressure Brady all day and keep him uncomfortable while containing there mediocre run game.
Falcons 28 Patriots 21

Bills +6 vs Saints
The high powered Saints offense roll into Buffalo for their second consecutive road game. This is an out of conference road game and could be a good spot for the Bills. As we know, the Bills could easily be 2-0 right now and are playing good ball like they did to open the season last year. Buffalo's offense went from scoring 24 in week 1 to 33 in week 2. Two of the three starting defensive linemen for the Saints are questionable starts with leg injuries which may mean even more time in the pocket for Trent Edwards and bigger holes for Fred Jackson to run through. The Saints may also be without WR Lance Moore (hamstring-questionable) and RB Pierre Thomas is still nursing a knee injury(although he's listed as probable) while Mike Bell is doubtful with an MCL sprain. I expect this game to be a shootout and one I'll be looking forward to watching.
Bills 31 Saints 30

NFL Notebook: Books and Sharps Do Well Week 2 in Las Vegas

NFL Notebook by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

A week after experiencing a tough opening NFL weekend with several public teams covering, Las Vegas sports books bounced back, as they always do, in week two.

The books always like a mix of favorites and underdogs covering each week just to keep everyone guessing for the weeks to come, ultimately leading to a range of varied opinions by the public, which usually translates to a much more consistent house hold.

What happened in week two should keep the players guessing for at least the next month.

Of the nine early games Sunday, six of the underdogs won outright with another, the Rams, losing but still covering. The only favorites to cover early were the Vikings and Falcons, meaning there were several re-grouping sessions by the players for the late games.

As the late games neared, the bettors were perplexed because logic is telling them "There is no way more dogs can win straight up today," and wouldn’t you know it, a few more came in. The Ravens-Chargers and Steelers-Bears games, two of the most heavily bet games of the day by the public, ended as straight up dog winners. In the other three late games, which had far less action or appeal, all the favorites won and covered.

In the Sunday finale at the Cowboys brand new stadium, another underdog won while christening Jerry Jones’ star-studded gala. The Giants 33-31 victory capped a Sunday where 10 of the underdogs covered with nine of them winning straight up.

"The general public didn’t do very well," said Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook Executive Director of Race and Sports Jay Kornegay, "but the sharp players on the moves did well."

Generally, when the public doesn’t do well, most of the sharps will have a winning day. Games that went the sharps way were the Raiders, Jets, Bengals, Saints, Ravens, and Bears. In just about every one of those cases, the moves came on game day. Some of the late moves that didn’t get there for the sharps’ were the losers of the Bucs and Panthers.

"There’s a misconception sometimes about how the book did," Kornegay explained. "I had players coming to me saying how great a day the books must have had because a team like the Bengals and Texans upset a big favorite, but that’s not always the case."

While most of the public was on the Packers laying a big number, the sharps bet the Bengals from a 9 point opening line favorite that stayed stagnant all week until Sunday morning when it dropped to –7 by kickoff.

On a broad account of books from across Las Vegas, the majority had small wins or losses on straight bets fueled by the sharp action, while off the board parlays, teasers and parlay cards went very well for the house.

Move of the Week

The Eagles opened up a -2 point favorite at home against the Saints on Monday as a circle game due to Donovan McNabb’s doubtful status. The line moved to -1 and then Pick where it stayed until Sunday morning, and then the freight train came, filled with cash as the sharps bet the Saints all the way up to a -3 point favorite.

The wait strategy paid off for the sharps as the Saints pounded Philly 48-22. Since it was known for days prior to the game that McNabb would not play, why then, didn’t they bet earlier before someone else could jump on the line and ruin their preferred line?

"We were working hard through Saturday to get confirmation on the status of McNabb," said Kornegay, "and once the news was confirmed we moved accordingly."

Once the confirmed information came out early Sunday morning, the sharps came out with plays all over the city, off-shore and the world on the Saints simultaneously until the line was moved to three.

New Stadium Note To File

The next time a new stadium opens, it may be a good idea to take whoever the home team is playing against the spread. The Giants’ win Sunday night gave the road teams a 9-5 record ATS since 1997.

Mile High Drama?

It’s only two weeks into the season, but it sure is amazing what winning can do to erase the past. While it remains to be seen how the Jay Cutler deal and Brandon Marshall soap opera plays out, it’s safe to say that most will agree so far, so good with the Josh McDaniels era. The offense is still sputtering, but the immediate change on defense is obvious as they have allowed only 13 points in two games. Say what you will about Kyle Orton, but he hasn’t turned the ball over yet and his team is 2-0 and in first place alone in the AFC West.

Who Needs Rest?

The term "a well rested team" always seems to hold some weight when discussing plus and minuses for each team in their particular match. Last week, there were two teams, Pittsburgh and Tennessee, who had 10 days rest before their games this week and both lost by three as favorites.

Week 2 Game Balls

RB Frank Gore rushed for 207 yards and had two TD’s in the 49ers 23-10 win over Seattle. The tempo and style of ball Frisco head coach Mike Singletary wants to play begins with Gore and now they’re 2-0 leading the NFC West … QB Matt Schaub took a lot of heat for his inability to make plays last week in a loss, but came strong in the tough environment of Tennessee with 357 yards passing and four TD’s in the Texans 34-31 upset of the Titans … Defensive end Elvis Dumervil had four sacks and a forced fumble in the Broncos’ 27-6 win over the Browns … Titans RB Chris Johnson would have surely been given a game ball, but a prerequisite to getting one is winning.

End Of An Era?

The Patriots are one kneel on a kickoff away from being 0-2 and the resurgence we all anticipated once Tom Brady returned just isn’t there. Their once confident swagger, that had teams beat before even stepping on the field, got a fat lip and black eye by the upstart Jets. What’s worse is that the Jets told the whole world what they were going to do and proceeded to follow through with it in their 16-9 win.

College Notebook: BCS is Headed For Another Jumbled Mess with One Loss Teams

College Notebook by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

With all the spectacular losses to top ranked teams last week in college football, it gave back hope to a few major one-loss schools in the power conferences in their quest to make the BCS Championship game.

Three schools that cheered the most were Ohio State, Oklahoma and Virginia Tech, who hope that the theory of "If you have to lose in college football, lose early" holds true. All three took chances playing top non-conference teams early in the season, but after the losses, everything is starting to circle back to them, putting the ball back in their court.

In the Big-12, Oklahoma can right the ship with a win in two weeks at Miami, and then beat Texas on Oct. 17. In the SEC, Mississippi and Alabama will knock one or the other out with their game Oct. 10 and someone will also lose the LSU-Florida game that same weekend.

Out West in the PAC-10, Cal still has to take care of business against USC in two weeks to advance further, while in the BIG-10, the Buckeyes are pointing to their road dates late in the season against Penn State and Michigan.

The big game this week in college football comes from the ACC’s Coastal Division with Miami visiting Virginia Tech, which could have major implications in the BCS jumble down the road. Miami will be looking to beat their third straight ranked opponent, while the one-loss Hokies could strengthen their case with a win.

It’s sure to be a major log jam, again, at the end of the season with several top teams having one loss making legitimate claims to play for the title.

What does all this mean for you other than instilling more school pride? Well, odds to win the National Championship game should have a renewed interest with so many possibilities. The Gators are still the big favorite to get there, but one other team has to get there and there is bound to be some great future prices on several of these teams. Check out our future odds page and shop around!

Mountain West Creditability

Just as the conference was starting to gain some national attention in the continual cry for respect, the roof caved in over the course of a few hours. No. 18 ranked Utah saw the nation’s longest winning streak snapped in a 31-24 loss at Oregon. A few hours later, No. 7 ranked BYU saw their 18-game home winning streak come to a resounding end when Florida State thumped them, 54-28. TCU is still ranked and undefeated, but the best record in the conference goes to the mighty Rams of Colorado State at 3-0.

USC Played With Canadian Rules?

During USC’s epic loss to a team like Washington, who was 0-12 last season, the Trojans didn’t convert one third down. They had 10 chances with zero converts. In the process, USC also had three turnovers while the Huskies had none. You can’t win many games with those numbers. The loss was Pete Carroll’s first at Washington since his first year in Troy and also was only his 11th conference loss in nine seasons.

Locker Leave Early?

Scouts were already raving over Washington QB Jake Locker before the USC game, a performance like he had that says a lot about his toughness and mentality. He’s still got a year to go, but he may be the top QB drafted if he were to leave after this season. You’d love to see him elevate the Huskies to another level and stay through his senior year, but after seeing two instances in recent years weighing those decisions to stay or go, the wise decision would be to go if he‘s thought of that highly. Sam Bradford stayed an extra year and it may have cost him quite a bit, financially and physically. Matt Leinert’s stock plummeted by playing another year costing him millions.

Father Kiffin Shows Blueprint?

The Gators have the easiest of roads among all SEC teams of getting to the conference title game because they won’t face either Mississippi or Alabama until then. Last week’s mild 23-13 win over Tennessee against defensive genius Monte Kiffin’s "bend but don’t break" defense may have shown a few of the SEC coaches how to at least slow down the potent Gator attack. Next big date for Florida is Oct. 10 in Baton Rouge against the LSU Tigers, but first at Kentucky next week.

Moves From last Week

The Pittsburgh Panthers 27-14 win over Navy made them 3-0 for the first time since 2000. Pitt opened up a -7 favorite and was bet up to -8. It was one of the short list of moves that actually covered. Teams like Kentucky, Florida, BYU, USC and Texas all moved up as favorites last week, but didn’t get the money. How about Maryland losing to Middle Tennessee State? The Terps opened as -6½ favorites and were bet up to -7½ by game time.

Congrats go out to Syracuse for getting their first win with their new coach and new QB. Former Duke basketball player, turned ‘Cuse QB, Greg Paulus, threw for 346 yards and two TD’s in their 37-34 win over Northwestern. Congrats also go to the sharps who pounded the Orangemen early in the week, all the way until game time. Northwestern opened a -4½ favorite, pushed to -3 on Friday, and then chopped to -1 by kickoff.

MAC QB Late Scratch

Akron’s starting QB, Chris Jacquemain, was suspended for violating team rules the day before their home game against Indiana. The Zips opened up a -3½ favorite Monday and was bet up to -5, before re-opening at -3 after the news. The replacement QB playing had never started a game before and Indiana pounded them.

Roberts Week 2 NFL Thoughts: Bears Bounce Back Big with Cutler & Forte

Betting has been relatively quiet this week in the Las Vegas Sports Books. There has been lots of action, but as of 4 pm Saturday, not many of the lines have moved during the week with the exception of the Chargers and Eagles games due to star players being injured. The majority of the sharp bets are likely to come Saturday night and game time Sunday morning.

Lines used are courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook as of 4pm Saturday.

Raiders +3 @ Kansas City (O/U 38.5) Line hasn’t changed since re-opening on Tuesday after the Raiders great showing Monday night. Look for a good tough fought battle with the Chiefs running game of Larry Johnson being the difference.
PICK: Chiefs 24-20

Texans +6.5 @ Tennessee (41) Game opened -7 and sharp money bet Houston right away on Monday. Titans are well rested and will get back to basics this week, the running game, which the Texans can’t stop as evident with Kubiak‘s 1-5 ATS record vs. TENN. PICK: Titans 27-13

Patriots -3.5 @ New York Jets (46) Lots of hype for this game. Original line before Monday night’s tough game was -6.5. Like what the Jet are trying to do in getting themselves pumped up with comments in the media, but I like the Pats to respond as they have the last 8 straight at the Meadowlands vs. the Jets and get the win. PICK: Patriots 28-16

Bengals +9 @ Green Bay (42.5) The Bengals may still be one of the worse teams in football even with Palmer back. Rodgers should get things started early and Grant’s running should seal the deal late. PICK: Packers 31-17

Vikings -9.5 @ Detroit (45) The total has dropped from 46.5, but no movement on the line. Vikings should get cylinders running this week, including Favre, and especially Peterson. Lions should get some scores as well making this a good total bet over, against the Vegas move. PICK: Vikings 34-24

Saints PK @ Philadelphia (45.5) The total has dropped from 47 based on the logic Philly’s defense will give Brees and the Saints offense a tough time and that the Kolb led offense will be conservative. Makes good sense to me, Kolb will struggle. PICK: Saints 23-13

Panthers +6 @ Atlanta (42.5) Can DelHomme be as bad as he has in his last two starts with 9 INT’s? As he goes, so will the team. Tough place to win, but I think Jake gets it going enough to make it a game. PICK: Falcons 28-24

Rams +9.5 @ Washington (37) Sharps took the Rams +10 on Monday and side or total hasn’t moved since then. Rams looked lost offensively last week despite having one of the best RB’s in the game and two good WR’s. Bulger doesn’t have it anymore. PICK: Redskins 23-10

Cardinals +3 @ Jacksonville (43) Sharps took the hook and +3.5 with Cards early in the week and has maintained where it is now. Jags should frustrate the Cards once again with their defense and a dose of MJD. PICK: Jaguars 23-19

Seahawks +1 @ San Francisco (39.5) Two teams going in the right direction. Should be one of the better games of the day. Slight move on the Seahawks taking +1.5 early in week. Singletary will try to control the clock and play low scoring game, but Hawks will dictate their own pace with their passing game. Good total play OVER. PICK: Seahawks 27-22

Buccaneers +4.5 @ Buffalo (41.5) Sharps took +5 early in week and it stayed where it’s at now. I liked what I saw out of both teams in their losses. Tampa got overwhelmed with perfect Romo bombs taking them out of the game. Their running game was very impressive. Should be a close game with the edge to the home team. PICK: Bills 24-21

Browns +3 EV @ Denver (39) A great defensive effort by Denver last week was overshadowed by Cincy’s late score and then Stokely’s play. Bettors are betting the OVER, which opened at 38. The Browns offense looked disorganized at home last week, as did Denver’s. The UNDER looks like a good play here. This line will be -3.5 by game time. PICK: Broncos 20-13

Ravens +3 -125 @ San Diego (40) Money came in on the Ravens +3 flat and will likely be 2.5 by game time. Last season the Ravens responded well on the road as a dog team last year going 6-3 ATS. Chargers will likely set the pace of the game with their pass attack making the total OVER look attractive. PICK: Ravens 27-24

Steelers -2.5 @ Chicago (37.5) Lovie Smith’s teams have always rebounded well after a loss. The Bears are 4-1 under Smith as a home dog after a loss. Expect to see a better Cutler and also a heavy dose of Forte on the ground and in passing game. PICK: Bears 24-17

Giants +3 -120 @ Dallas (45) The total has moved from the original line of 43.5. Romo has won four straight vs. the Giants and he’ll look to do the same as they open their new stadium. Both teams should be able to put some good yardage up creating scores. PICK: Cowboys 27-21

Monday Night Football
Colts -3 -120 @ Miami (42) Both teams had some offensive miscues last, but only the Dolphins lost. Miami’s running game should be the difference here in trying to duplicate what Jones-Drew did to the Indy defense last week. Good home dog, wait until game time bet and get maybe +4 or at least +3.5 if liking the Dolphins. PICK: Dolphins 20-17

Best Bets - Week Two: Clev/Den UNDER 39, Bears +2.5 ML, NYG/Dal OVER 45, Redskins -9.5, Balt/SD OVER 40, Titans -6.5

Roberts College Football Picks: Gators and Cougars

Not too many big games this week, but we still got to make some plays, right?

BYU -7.5 vs. Florida State: The Seminoles will be playing their third game in 12 days and could easily be 0-2 coming in after struggling against Jacksonville State a week after losing a heartbreaker to Miami. BYU has won their last 18 games at home and covered the spread, lots of them very large, in 12 of those games. Rise and Shout! The Cougars are Out!

Florida -30 vs. Tennessee: Florida was dusting off the Vols long before Lane Kiffin popped off. All this does is ensure that the Gators will go for blood late in the game if the spread is in question. Gators Head Coach Urban Meyer is not at all amused by Kiffin’s assertions of illegal recruiting and will do all he can to pound Kiffin and show other up and comers that Kiffin’s way was the wrong way to join the SEC as a new coach.

College Football Record
Last Week: 3-1
Season: 6-6