Jets Rhodes and Ryan Talking Loud About Patriots: Good Idea?

Japan’s great Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto, is said to have made the statement, "I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve," immediately following their attack on Pearl Harbor.

This week the New York Jets have freely, and openly, sent a message to the Patriots through the media. Whether it turns out to be the same fate suffered by Yamamoto’s squad, has yet to be seen, but it sure is making the game seem much more interesting now.

“It’s to the point where enough is enough,” said New York Jets free-safety Kerry Rhodes.

“You go out from the first quarter on, from the first play on, and try to embarrass them,” Rhodes said. “Not just go out there and try to win, try to embarrass them. Try to make them feel bad when they leave here. We don’t want to just beat them. We want to send a message to them, ‘We’re not backing down from you and we expect to win this game, and it’s not going to be luck, it’s not going to be a mistake.’ ”

He also said that the Jets Defense would hit Tom Brady more than six times, the number of times that Brady was hit this past Monday night by the Buffalo Bills defense.

The Rhodes comments were made a day after new Head Coach Rex Ryan talked very positive in an emphatic manner that his Jets aren’t going to be bullied around anymore by the Patriots who have put a Beat-down on the Jets eight straight games at the Meadowlands.

“Talk is cheap,” Brady said Wednesday, referring to Ryan without even knowing what Rhodes said.

Patriots head coach Bill Belichik has shown Patriots the article and left it at that. None of the players had much to say regarding Rhodes comments.

You have to like the inspiration and motivation before games, but I don’t think it turns out too well for teams that call out the Patriots. It seems to make them stronger and more focused crusading with a common goal, yet not speaking about it and as a unit.

Remember Anthony Smith? He used to play the safety for Pittsburgh Steelers. In 2007 he guaranteed a victory against the Patriots in Foxboro. Brady responded with 399 yards and four Touchdowns in the Patriots 34-13 win.

The most memorable moment, or response to bold statements, was when Brady threw one of his bombs, or the final nail in the coffin.

He proceeded to run down field towards the end-zone, found Smith after he‘d been burned, and gave him some choice words not meant for reporters. Brady yelled the message out personally to Smith, as if to say, “this how I‘ll call you out, on the field!”

I haven‘t heard much from Smith of late, but I‘m sure he‘ll think twice before making a statement against anyone, let alone the Patriots.

Perhaps this is the best way to get a team riddled with losses to change their psyche, but no one wants to be that guy that gets punked in front of millions by Brady. I guess those are the sacrifices that must be made if you’re trying change an overall mind set. The other way sure wasn’t working.

NFL Picks: Mike T's Week 2 Dogs

by Mike T.

The first few weeks of the season I always look for some value underdogs. Although I went 1-2 last week there were still a few dogs that got there that I only wish I would have taken. Let's see what I can do this week.

Teams like the Jets, Bears, and Seahawks are all possible dogs to get there this week but I'm staying away from them for the most part. ( I may stick them in a parlay but that's about it)

Ravens +3 1/2 over Chargers
By now most of us know that LT is banged up already and will not play. That is not the only reason to go against SD. Offensive linemen Nick Hardwick(ankle) and Louis Vasquez (knee) have not practiced this week. The Raiders held this SD running attack to 87 yds on 23 carries. That was with 2 healthy starting linemen. Now SD has to play a much better Raven D and a Raven O that is also much better than Oakland.
Ravens 20 Chargers 10

Saints +1 over Eagles
Not only is McNabb doubtful with a broken rib but (T) Shaun Andrews is also out for the year. Andrews will be replaced with turn-style Winston justice. If the Saints sent multiple looks at Justice, Kevin Kolb could be in for a long day while trying to keep up with the high powered Saints offense. I think we'll see the Saints go up early and never look back.
Saints 24 Eagles 14

Giants +3 over Dallas
The first thing that stands out to me is the line. The home team -3 is the same as a pick'em on a neutral field. This line seems a little off to me, it should probably be Dallas +1. Odds makers can hang this number because they know they will get plenty of action on the Cowboys. This being a big division game and the fact that Dallas is opening their new stadium on Sunday night is enough to make this line a boring 3. The Cowboys offense put up 34 points on TB last week including 3 bombs while holding the Bucs to just 10. This week however, the Cowboys are not playing the Bucs. The Bucs rushed for 174 yds against the Boys but abandoned the run once they fell behind. The Giants have a better O Line and better backs and I doubt they give up on the run game even if they are down a score or two. The Giants D Line will also pressure Romo a lot more than the Bucs did and should bring their run game to a halt.

One more thing, teams playing their first game in a new stadium are 7-6 straight up and 5-8 against the spread since 1997.
Giants 27 Cowboys 16

Las Vegas Line Movements: Tennessee vs Florida

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Each week we’re going to chronicle some of the most bet games from Las Vegas sportsbooks at what is kind of like the halfway point. Generally at this point on the week, the lines that have been moved have been pushed that way by the sharps and are influenced very little by public.

95% of the wagers made by the public will be made Friday, Saturday, and especially Sunday, while the sharps come in all week with varying strategies around town.

Those strategies that some of the sharps use are very carefully thought out and calculated to ensure they get the amount their looking to bet at the preferred line. Not only do they have to have the games handicapped, but they also have to have each sportsbook’s bookmaking philosophy down also.

The last few seasons Thursday action has been one of the more festive betting days prior to the weekend, other than Monday’s, in particular with college football action. It wouldn’t be out of the ordinary to see up to 10 games run one after another two to three points a game during a short half-hour period. The VegasInsider.com Live Odds and competing screens would light up like New York Stock Exchange boards with both Las Vegas and Offshore books.

However, after two weeks of college football, it hasn’t been like the seasons past.

“Last week, we saw most of our big action on game day", said MGM/Mirage Director of Race and Sports Jay Rood. "We’ve had some action on a few games through the week, but the last two Thursday’s haven’t been like last year.”

South Point veteran Sport Book Director Bert Osborne is seeing the same thing, “It’s been quiet this week other than the normal action on Monday.“

Both directors agree their biggest college game they have on the board this week in the Tennessee-Florida game.

”This is definitely the most interesting game with a 30 point spread I’ve seen for some time, Rood said. Because of the action I’ve already seen across the counter, we’re even going to offer some special props for the game.”

The recommended send by Las Vegas Sports Consultants was Florida -25, but most books like the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook opened the game at -27.5 and it’s been pushed up to -30 at most books.

“The build up for this game has created a nice buzz around Las Vegas for this game, Osborne said. It’s not only the revenge factor with Kiffin’s comments back in February that make this game stand out, but it’s also the fact that there are only two games with ranked teams playing each other which magnifies this game even more.”

Osborne may be right on his assertion. If the Buckeyes were playing USC this weekend, or any of the great games from last week, the Lane Kiffin beat down party may be big only in Gator Country.

Instead, it’s caught on everywhere. People want to see either Florida hammer Kiffin, while others want to see if Kiffin’s strategy of getting into a teams’ head can diminish their style and make them play differently.

Here’s some other moves from the week through Thursday afternoon using the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook lines:

* Pittsburgh opened -7 vs. NAVY and is currently up to -8 while others are still 7 or 7.5.
* Akron opened -3.5 vs. Indiana and is currently up to -4.5 while other are around -5.
* Kansas opened -21 vs. Duke and is up to -22.5 and a high of -23 elsewhere.
* Washington opened +20.5 vs. USC and is down to +17.5 with a range of lines at 18 and 19.
* Florida opened -27.5 vs. Tennessee and is up to -29.5 with others as high as -30.
* Kentucky opened -12 vs. Louisville and is up a point to -13.5, with a high of -14 at Leroy’s.

Sunday’s pro football action has had the normal early runs on games on or around the key numbers of 3, 7, or 10.

* The Texans +7 was saw as attractive and bet down to 6.5 vs. the Titans.
* The Rams getting +10 vs. the Redskins was deemed attractive by some respected sharps and bet down to 9.5 at a few books.
* Cardinals bettors took the hook at +3.5 against Jacksonville to +3 flat.
* A few Broncos wagers have come in laying -3 flat pushing to -3 -120 vs. Cleveland.
* The Steelers have pushed the -2.5 flat to -3 even at the Bears.

The game getting the most action thus far at the South Point for Osborne has been the Cowboys-Giants game. “We usually don’t like to use money on moves around 3, so we have bounced back and forth a few times from -2.5 flat to -3 flat.”

Osborne is one of the only bookmakers in Vegas to not use money on moves and is very well respected for it, among other things. When considering all the games that have been on three over the last ten years, only one season has the move proved wrong. Between the volume accumulated by not asking bettors to lay an extra -10 cents on a valued line, the reward far outweighs the risk of when the book actually gets sided.

NFL Week One: Bettors Get the Best Of It

NFL Notebook by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

The players came out firing for week one of pro football – and they were more right than wrong.

After months of handicapping and waiting for the season to start, their patience and handicapping skills came to fruition as the majority of the public games came through for the players.

"In the morning games, it seemed like everyone had the combination of Dallas, Philly, Minnesota and Baltimore in their parlays," said Lucky’s Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro. "We got some buy-back on Carolina when we went to +3, and the same with Cleveland at +5, but not enough to offset the overall risk in the morning."

At the end of the first wave of nine games Sunday, Vaccaro said his books were about even, but the real risk was yet to come.

"We got smart money on the Rams and 49ers late games pushing those lines down, but we had far more risk on the other side," he said.

During the late games, Vaccaro said he was put into the position of rooting with the sharp players, who moved the line because there was more upside for the house. The combination late of Seattle, New York, Arizona and Green Bay tied up in existing parlays were a worst-case scenario, despite all the large wagers taken on the other side.

That demonstrates how powerful the parlay can be. Sports books live and die with it. On a rare losing day for the house in pro football, seldom will it ever be the wise guy that’s doing the damage.

Instead, a rough day for the books is generally when a majority of the Sunday games cover for the parlay bettors – paying off at odds of 20-, 40-, and 80-to-1! Those are numbers a book just can’t catch up to.

Each week, usually there are about six to seven games that are just buried with one-sided action, often as part of parlay bets.

One of the games Vaccaro was fortunate didn’t come through for the bettors was the Bengals versus the Broncos.

"That was our best game of the day, not only because the Bengals were a public team, but also because of the smart money," Vaccaro said. "We opened that game at pick originally and the line just ran all the way up to Bengals -4 ½."

Denver won the game outright, making it a big score for the sports books.

Usually, it’s worse when the underdog wins outright because of the "plus" money paid out – odds greater than even money, rather than less than 1-to-1. But that didn’t happen in the Lucky’s sports books, Vaccaro said. "No one wanted the Broncos, not with the money line, points, or teasers," he said.

The "deadest" game of the day – the one with the least betting action – was also the longest. There didn’t seem to be much interest for the Lions-Saints marathon, in which the first overall draft choice, Matt Stafford, made his NFL debut with the Lions. But the Saints’ Drew Brees tossed six touchdown passes in a rout that still gave the few New Orleans bettors who laid the 14 points a scare, as the Saints only won by 18, 45-27.

Big Score of the Day
Chris Cooley’s score in the final minutes for the Redskins covered the +6.5 against the Giants, making the score 17-23 and pushing the game over the total of 37.

Week 1 Score Card: Sharps vs. Sports Books

The Eagles opened -1 at the Las Vegas Hilton and was bet to -2.5 by Saturday, where it closed. Jake Delhomme picked up right where he left off in the playoffs and tossed four more interceptions. Winner: Sharps

The Bengals opened a pick months ago and was bet systematically to -4.5, partly a result of all the Mile High drama in Denver. The Broncos played great defense, enough to cover, and caught a Hail-Mary to win straight up. Winner: Sports Books

Colts opened -7.5 and bet down to 6.5 and the Jaguars made a game of it covering, and nearly winning. Maurice Jones-Drew was stellar and the Jags Defense played very physical creating key turnovers. Winner: Sharps

The Cowboys opened at -6 and was bet down to -5 by Sunday morning. Tony Romo showed his two ex-teammates that he’s just fine without them. He launched long bombs throughout the day, with all connecting against a good secondary. Winner: Sports Books

Arizona opened -6.5 and was bet down to -4.5 close to game time. The poor pre-season by the Cardinals continued. Winner: Sharps

Seahawks opened -8.5 and was bet down to -7.5. The "logic" must have been that the Seahawks couldn’t be a TD better than the Rams. There’s no mystery left on this one; there’s nothing good to say about the Rams. Winner: Sports Books

College Football Notes: Florida is Ready For Volunteers

College Notebook by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

Kiffin comments could come back to bite him

"I’m really looking forward to embracing some of the great traditions at the University of Tennessee, for instance the Vol Walk, running through the T and singing Rocky Top all night long after we beat Florida next year. It will be a blast."

Those were the comments made by Lane Kiffin during the press conference to announce that he was the new head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers.

When Florida quarterback Tim Tebow read the comments, he blew it up poster-sized and placed it all over the team’s spring practice facility. When Kiffin found out what Tebow did, he was pretty tickled.

"Beautiful … awesome … wonderful – they even put our logo on it," Kiffin said. "Free advertising and we didn’t have to pay for it."

That was all playful fun at the time, but then Kiffin went "all-in" and made suggestions publicly to a crowd that Florida Gators Head Coach Urban Meyer "had to cheat and still didn’t get him," in reference to a player they both were recruiting.

Kiffin was subsequently reprimanded by the SEC and had to make a public apology to Florida for the comments.

Now, the time for talk has ended, as Florida will meet Tennessee this week in Gainesville.

Kiffin may have wanted to install pride and motivation into his fans and players, but he also put a big bulls-eye on his chest. A little swagger and brashness is nice, but not when you aggravate the national champions and coach Urban Meyer, probably motivating them to new heights of their own.

Following Florida’s 56-6 win over Troy last week, Urban said, "The season starts now," and that Tuesday’s practice "would be the hardest practice we’ll ever have."

The largest margin of victory the Gators have ever had against the Vols was 39 in 2007, and the most points they have ever scored against them was 62 in 1995. Look for both of those records to fall this weekend.

Big-10 Still Okay?

Despite a tough loss by the Buckeyes to USC, and the improbable loss by Michigan State to Central Michigan, the conference still has seven teams with 2-0 records. Michigan looks like they may be a player in the conference this year after the impressive win over Notre Dame, and Penn State is currently its highest ranked team. Even though they haven’t covered either of their games this season, PSU has shut out their opponents in the first half of both contests.

PAC-10 flexes its muscles in Eastern Time zone!

The PAC-10 sent three teams East and two came out victorious last week, an unusual feat for Western teams because of the time difference. Playing a noon (ET) game when losing three hours via travel has always been tough, even for the pros. USC and UCLA played in two of the most hostile environments and came away victorious, while Stanford came out firing early but lost late to Wake Forest.

UCLA was not a favorable decision for the bettors. The line opened Tennessee favored by 7 at the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook and closed at -11. The USC game saw steady action on both sides, but the line stayed solid all week at -7 and fell to what is a bookmaker’s dream in big games, in which the favorite doesn’t cover and the dog doesn’t win straight up.

Another Good College Day for the Books

The boss for Lucky’s Sports Books across the state, Jimmy Vaccaro, was very happy with how Saturday went. "It was a good day for the house, and we’re especially pleased with the overall handle. Last week was a great build-up for the books and players, and it just continued into the second week," Vaccaro said. "We had several key decisions on the day, but the key was the Ohio State-USC game, which ended well for the house because so many parlays were linked to USC laying -7."

How Many Did Georgia Score?

For the last eight seasons, the total has gone "under" in the South Carolina/Georgia rivalry. In the last two seasons, the dynamic duo of Matt Stafford and Knowshon Moreno could only muster 26 points for the Bulldog offense. In their openers two weeks ago, each team was able to score only seven points, with the Gamecocks winning and Georgia losing. The total surprisingly opened high at 38 for Saturday’s game and was bet up to 39.5? So of course, the game flies over easily with Georgia getting the game total themselves in a 41-37 win.

Hawkins Must Go!

It’s hard to hear who’s shouting the loudest for Colorado’s Head Coach Dan Hawkins’ job – the Boulder faithful, or the bettors in Nevada Sports Books. The Buffaloes have sunk beneath the depths from which they were brought back to life in the late 1980’s by Bill McCartney.

After being backed by the bettors for the last two games – the reasoning was that the Buffs were playing inferior opponents – bettors believed the trend would begin to go the other way. Up next for the Buffs, the Wyoming Cowboys – another Mountain West team they could lose to.

Big-12 Ratings Dropping?

For the second consecutive week, a Top-5 ranked Big-12 team fell to a non-conference opponent. Two weeks ago it was Oklahoma falling to BYU of the Mountain West, and then last Saturday it was Oklahoma State dropping to Houston from Conf-USA.

So the question is, why should these teams risk losing this early when their conference schedule is already considered strong enough play for the computers that sort out strength schedule. If a team does well in their conference, they’ll go to a nice bowl and if they win the conference, they should have a good shot at playing for the National Championship.

Texas has played a couple of cupcakes early on and is sitting nice for their home game against Texas Tech this week with a top ranking.

The biggest beneficiary of the Big-12’s drop this year is the Mountain West with wins against Oklahoma and Colorado. Conferences looking to feed off the Big-12 this week will be the Mountain West again, Conf-USA, Big East, WAC and the MAC.

Hopefully, when the polls kick in closer to BCS time, teams like BYU or Utah will be given a fair shake because of a strength of schedule boost against the power conferences. BYU can take down an ACC team this week and help the Mountain West cause with a win against Florida State. Bowden’s kids are going to love Provo!

Roberts Week One Results: Money Lines Good, Totals Awful!

by M Roberts

College Football kicked off a nice start to the weekend with a 3-1 outing, including a nice money line play of UCLA @ Tennessee. The only loss in College was the unbelievable total in the Georgia-South Carolina game where Geaorgia went over by themselves. How did that happen? The last 8 years it had gone under and both scored just 7 points last week.

Pro Football started out nice, but I knew I was a sucker Monday having the same sides as every rube in the world. After the Sports Books got hammered on Sunday, was there really a possibility that two of my best bets of San Diego and New England could get there laying all those points? No Shot!

The best part of the week was the plus-money Money Lines getting there this week going 3-1 with Jacksonville as the only loser. Denver, San Francisco, and The Jets seemed too easy.

The totals were awful this week also going a terrible 5-10 with best bets going 3-3. We'll get em' next week.

College Football Record
Last Week: 3-1
Season: 6-6

Pro Football
Sides vs Spread: 8-7
Season: 8-7

Totals: 5-10
Season 5-10

Plus $ Money Lines: 3-1
Season:3-1

Straight Up: 13-2
Season: 13-2

Best Bets: 3-3
Season: 3-3

Roberts Week One Pro Football Selections & Best Bets

by M Roberts

Each week I’ll give my opinions on the games with a few best bets. All lines listed are courtesy of The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook updated from 12:30 pm Saturday.

Week 1, Sunday, September 13, 2009

Dolphins +4 @ Falcons (O/U 43.5): Atlanta will have a tough time duplicating last season’s fantastic season, but so will Miami who is in the same boat. Like Michael Turner too much at home to go against. Pick: Falcons 27-20

Chiefs +13 @ Ravens (36): Looks like a complete mismatch. Chiefs lost all pre-season games and don’t have a solid game plan in place for 2009 despite a new Head Coach in Todd Haley. I have question marks about the Ravens change in defensive scheme this year, but they still have the players. Pick: Ravens 28-6

Eagles -2.5 @ Panthers (43.5): Carolina was the favorite in this game a few months ago, and moved from Philly being favored Monday by -1 to -2.5 on Saturday. Likely not to reach 3, but Panthers should be able to get the home field win led by their running attack. Still questions about Westbrook’s ability to contribute for Philly. Pick: Panthers 28-21

Broncos +4.5 @ Bengals (43): The sharps and the public have bet this game from Denver a small favorite a few months ago to Cincy where it’s at now. No movement on the line this week, and it may be over-inflated. Denver has been through a lot, but still have one of the best offensive lines in football. Look for the Bronco running game to be too much to handle for a suspect Bengals defensive unit. Pick: Broncos 20-16

Vikings -3.5 @ Browns (40): This game will be closer than most think. The Browns will play an inspired game and key on stopping the run, harder said than done, but should they have success early and move the ball just a little, it‘ll come down to a field goal. Pick: Vikings 23-20

Jets +4.5 @ Texans (44): The Houston defense should be much better than it has shown the last two seasons, and because they‘re not, this might be the best game of the day if you like offense. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez would have liked to start his career at home, but playing a bad defense in front of a semi-rabid crowd is the next best thing. Pick: Jets 37-33

Jaguars +7 @ Colts (44): The big question with the Jags is how well Maurice Jones-Drew responds to getting all the carries with Fred Taylor gone. Will he be too tired to be the bolt of energy that got the Jags rolling in key moments? The answer is No! he’ll be just fine, especially this week without Bob Sanders patrolling the field. Pick: Jaguars 30-23

Lions +13.5 @ Saints (49): Lions were 7-1 vs. the spread last season on the road. No one better to cash with than Detroit. This line has moved up a half on the side and total from Monday. Look for the Saints to get theirs, but for Lions to be in striking distance to get the last cover which the Saints could care less about. Pick: Saints 34-24

Cowboys -5.5 @ Buccaneers (39): So many reasons to love the Cowboys and hate the Bucs this week, but it can’t be that easy can it? The Cowboys got a happy Tony Romo and all those backs and Bucs have 3 mediocre backs, and washed up QB, and a new Head Coach. The Bucs also have a proud talented defense who the home crowd will inspire to keep the game close. Maybe a good money line play. Pick: Cowboys 16-13

49ers +6 @ Cardinals (46.5): This game just keeps repeating year after year on opening day, but this will be the first opener with Samurai Mike at the helm. The 49ers have a young disciplined defense and a confident offense to be able to take it at the defending NFC Champs. The Cardinals awful pre-season will linger into week 1. Pick: 49ers 34-26

Redskins +6.5 @ Giants (37.5): This game will likely end up like last years battles with a bruising style that nets the Redskins very little points. Giants have the best defense in football and the Skins have no answer to negate that edge. Pick: Giants 23-6

Rams +7.5 @ Seahawks (41): This line has come down from Monday a whole point meaning some sharps have come in on the Rams. Seattle’s offense looked the most crisp of any in pre-season led by a healthy Matt Hasselbeck. Hawk-n-Roll! Pick: Seahawks 28-17

Bears +4 @ Packers (46.5): This game has a moved a half since Monday, and because it’s a Sunday Night game, you’ll likely see the favorite go to 5.5. Both should be able to score, but Chicago will get their first taste of ill-advised throws by Jay Cutler leading to losing games. Aaron Rodgers is ready to become a star. Pick: Packers 31-19

Monday Night Football
Bills +11 @ Patriots (47.5): The Bills have made some additions but their biggest weapon, Marshawn Lynch, is suspended for three games. The Patriots will look to flex their rehabilitated offensive weapons early and often. Once the air is out the bag and the Bills have accepted defeat, it‘ll be a very boring second half. Pick: Patriots 35-7

Chargers -9.5 @ Raiders (43): Not many teams looked worse than Oakland in pre-season in all facets. The only thing talented as a group there is the fans, which may help a little, but see Denver’s waxing of them in the same opener last year on Monday Night for how effective the crowd was. Chargers should do as they want. Pick: Chargers 38-17


Best Bets: 49ers +6.5, Seahawks -7.5, Giants -6.5, Packers -4, Chargers -9.5, Patriots -11

College Football Picks - Week 2: USC vs Ohio State

by M Roberts

South Carolina @ Georgia UNDER 39.5: This battle has gone under the total in their last 8 meetings where ever they have played. Steve Spurrier doesn’t want to throw, eliminate mistakes, and take his chances late in a close game. The last two season even with Matt Stafford and Knowshon Moreno leading a high powered offense, Georgia could only muster 26 points combined. Hard to figure out why the line has moved up, but it has from 38.

Michigan +3 vs. Notre Dame: The last few games have not really been close. The home team has won eight of the last 10 in this series. ND’s last win at Michigan came in 2005 with Brady Quinn. It looks like ND has another good one with Jimmy Clausen, but the home team should prevail in the Big House. Whether it’s good, or bad, the Vegas bettors agree too as the line has dropped from the opener of ND -4.

Ohio State +7 vs. USC: The Buckeyes got a nice wake up call last week with a scare against Navy. The Columbus faithful have had this game circled since getting buried 35-3 in Los Angeles last year. The Buckeye faithful feel that since USC lost most of it’s defense from last year as well as their starting QB, that they’ll be just fine at home with their own seasoned QB running a swanky new offense.

Apparently, Las Vegas doesn’t agree with Columbus. The game originally opened up as USC a -3 point favorite on an early line two months ago raising a few eye-brows that such a young team would be favored in Columbus. The combination of the occurrences from last week in each of their games made the opening line on Monday -7 where it has stayed all week.

USC reloads every year and they showed it last week with Freshman QB Matt Barkley leading the charge with 56 points against San Jose State. The greatest stat of the week involves USC and Pete Carroll in their last nine games against the Big 10 that has seen the Trojans win and cover all nine. In all nine instances, USC won by double digits.

On a positive note for Ohio State, their 12th man, the Fans - all 106,000 of them get to rattle a freshman QB. No matter what Barkley says to shrug off the daunting task of calling plays in front of what is arguably the most hostile crowd in College Football, he’ll still be affected. He may have all the tools and make up to make him great down the road, but not in his first road game a s a collegian, and not there.

This is only the third time the Buckeyes have been a home dog under Jim Tressel’s watch and overall, Tressel is 55-8 at home. With the spread being relevant, only two times has a Tressel team been beaten by double-digits (11 and 12).

There lots of reasons why USC should be favored, but I’ll base my choice of Ohio State winning the game on my faith in the crowd to do their job and create easy opportunities for Buckeye scores by letting the Freshman have it. This game is under the lights which means most of the older alumni and supporters stay home because night games bring out the freakiest of freaks in Columbus.

UCLA +10 @ Tennessee: The Vols opened up a -7 point favorite on Monday and has been bet up to -10 in Las Vegas. There is an opinion by many that new Head Coach Lane Kiffin is looking to instill a winning confidence in his team by running up scores at a rate beyond sportsmanship. They pummeled Western Kentucky last week scoring 63 points with QB Jonathan Crompton tossing five TD passes.

UCLA played a tougher opponent last week in their 19 point win against San Diego State. The two question marks coming into the season for the Bruins were answered quickly. The offensive line opened up holes and protected the QB. Freshman QB Kevin Prince showed he has the ability to lead the team comfortably by connecting accurately on tough out patterns and also nice touch on balls down field. He didn’t look like a Freshman.

However, Prince does come into a situation similar to Barkley of USC at the ‘Shoe this week. Neyland Stadium will be rocking this week with their desire to get back on top of the SEC and ride their maverick coach to a title. They believe it starts this Saturday. The big difference between the this game and the USC/OSU game is the start time which is 4 pm (ET), and Ohio State is a top notch program.

The Vols likely will get there soon, but UCLA will play them much tougher than anticipated by Las Vegas bettors and could pull off another upset like they did at the Rose Bowl last yea to kick off their seasons.

Last Week: 3-5
Season: 3-5

Week 1 Upsets and Surprise Teams

by Mike T.

Every year starting week 1 we always see some surprises. Teams like Mia, Atl, and Balt come to mind when thinking about teams that most wouldn't expect much from in '08. This happens every year and will again this year. The Dolphins went 1-15 in the '07 season and turned it around in '08 finishing 11-5. The '07 Falcons(4-12) and the 5-11 Ravens both finished 11-5 in '08.

The first few weeks of the year is a great time to look for upsets, money lines, dogs that can cover or simply surprise teams. I do this every year and more often than not do pretty well.

Who will it be this year?

Two teams that seem to stick out to me are the Seahawks and the Bengals. The Seahawks underachieved in Holmgrens last season but I believe they as well as the 49ers will not let the Cards run away with the division this year. I expect Hasselbeck to bounce back after being injured much of last season. The addition of TJ Houshmandzadeh in FA and draft picks LB Aaron Curry and C Max Unger should all be key contributors immediately. They should have a solid run game behind a good OL and their is still a lot of talent on defense.

As for the Bengals, maybe I watched to much "Hard Knocks" but I believe that this team has a lot of talent. Sure they lost TJ but acquired L. Coles still have #85 (you can say that # in any language you like) and C. Henry tore it up in preseason. They have a stable of RBs and picked up FB B. Leonard. Rookie ILB Ray Maualuga will make an immediate impact on a pretty talented defense.

That said, I won't take either of these two teams in week one as they are both favorites. So let's get to the dogs that I like.

Jacksonville +7 at the Colts
We all know how good the Colts offense is but, the defense goes from slightly above average to poor when Bob Sanders is out. Well, he's out. The Jags like to run the ball and they do it well. The Colts did very little in the offseason and during the draft to beef up the defense. I can see the Jags having a big day on the ground while keeping Peyton on the sidelines. I'm also not ready to write off Tory Holt. I think he has a few more 80+ catch seasons left in him and it may be time for 5th year WR Troy Williamson to have a breakout year.
Jax 27 Ind 24

Tampa Bay +6 vs Dallas
The Cowboys did almost nothing in the offseason.They lost T.O. and picked up Jon Kitna in FA and that's about it. They didn't have a pick in the draft until the 3rd round and while they did have multiple picks in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th, I don't see any of them getting much playing time right away. That's not to say that some of them won't be stars in the near future, just not the first few weeks. Tampa lost a few players in FA but replaced them with better talent in the off season. The addition of Derrick Ward to go along with Cadillac and Graham makes this a great RB rotation. Antonio Bryant had a break out year and new arrival KWII may be enough O for the Bucs. They added two defensive linemen on day one of the draft to an already solid defense. I like the home dog in this one.
Tampa 23 Dallas 21

Miami +4 at Atlanta
I'm kind of torn between a few teams that may pull out a money line win for me. I think the 49ers may have a shot against the Cards. I really want to pull the trigger on Cleveland over the Vikes, but I think I'm going to go with the Dolphins over the Falcons in week 1. These are two teams headed in the right direction. They both had nice off seasons in FA and the draft. For some reason though I have to go with Miami. I think they will try to keep Matt Ryan off the field as much as they can with a strong running game. A lot of new faces on defense for the Falcons may still need a week or two to fully understand the system. I also think Pennington will make fewer mistakes than sophomore Ryan.
Miami 26 Atlanta 16

Week 1 Pro Football Notes

NFL Notebook by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

Super Bowl winners on a 'cover' streak

The pro football games kickoff this Thursday with the Titans visiting Pittsburgh in the annual season opener in which the World Champions jump start the season.

In years past, the Super Bowl champs used to start the season off on Monday night where it was a great bet against for whoever they lined up against.

For some reason, waiting for all the action on Sunday to run its course and get to Monday’s game was too much to ask for the champs.

In recent years, the champs have been playing on Thursday nights to start the season and the cover has been there in just about every instance. Last season the Giants strangled the Redskins, the year prior it was the Colts dismantling the Saints and the year before that it was the Steelers taking care of business and covering against the Dolphins.

In 2005, the Patriots beat the Raiders by 10 and in the previous year, the Patriots took care of the Colts by 3. In all instances, the champs won the game and only in 2004 did they not cover.

In all, the Super Bowl champs have won nine straight games in their openers going 7-2 ATS. The last team to not win in their first game as defending champion was the Denver Broncos, who lost to the Dolphins the year after John Elway retired.

The Steelers are currently a 5½ point favorite against the Titans.

The largest line move from all the early lines had the Denver Broncos a slight favorite at Cincinnati for week one. The sharp bettors picked on that line early and moved it to where the line has now settled, with the Bengals being a 4½ point favorite. The betting and moves on that game took place well before all the Jay Cutler drama.

Chances are that the public will be all over the Bengals just because of Denver’s poor preseason and persona amid all the bad publicity surrounding their team. This could be a spot for going against an over-inflated line and taking the points.

Todd Haley’s Kansas City Chiefs get their regime started at Baltimore against one the league’s most physical defenses. What’s worse for Haley is that his prized QB acquisition, Matt Cassel, is doubtful to return until week 3. On that news alone, the Ravens went from an 8½ point favorite to crossing a major barrier of 10 points and settling at 13 at most books. Still, that’s a lot of points to give up for a team that isn’t known for their offensive scoring prowess.

The Cardinals’ first team offense had a tough time scoring throughout preseason and their first string defense couldn’t stop anyone, but that hasn’t changed the line at all for week one as they’re favored by 6½ points at home against the 49ers, a team they seem to open up against every year. This could be the upset of the week and a great money line play.

The Packers have shown one of the most crisp offenses during pre-season, but that has only made them move from a 3 point favorite to 3½ against the rival Bears. The new defensive alignment by defensive coach Dom Capers should produce immediate dividends for the Packers who got involved in too many shootouts last year. With this being a Sunday night game, if you like the Packers, get them early because the home favorite always rises in the late game. Don’t be surprised to see it go to at least the dead number of 5½ points.

The best offensive showing by a preseason first string offense was the Seattle Seahawks led by a healthy Matt Hasselbeck, who had four TD passes in limited action in his two games played. Seattle opened a 6 point favorite early but has crossed a major point spread barrier of 7 and has settled at 8 points against the St. Louis Rams. The public is really down on the Rams and by kick-off on Sunday, it’s likely to see the spread hit as high as 9½ points, so bet early if you like the Seahawks.

Nevada Sports Books Do Well In First Week of College Football

Football fans jam Las Vegas sports shops
by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

The first weekend of college football hit the sports books like a tidal wave. After going through the serene, day-to-day calm of the sports betting world since March Madness, the first day of football can somewhat be overwhelming, but yet at the same time, more exhilarating and validation to reasons why some chose to work in the profession.

"There was so much excitement in the room with every seat and booth filled," said South Point’s Director of Sports Book Operations Bert Osborne. "They had so many great finishes throughout all points of the day with so many different start times."

There is nothing like a football weekend in the sports book. While much of the rest of the casino is winding down from busy graveyard action, the book sprouts to life with an energy that is unmatched with cheers and yells in unison making the entire casino take notice to what’s going on.

The books did pretty well on Saturday based on how some of the games turned out that had heavy action. It was a nice flow of games that started early with good decisions that saw favored Penn State Ohio State, and Minnesota win but did not cover the spread.

Penn State was a 30-point favorite and was up 31-0 at half-time which had to make all the bettors think, "This is too easy!" But the Akron Zips scored a TD in the second half, while Paterno and the gang took it easy and chose not to run it up; in fact they didn‘t run it anywhere as they didn‘t score making the final score 31-7.

Those were heavy public games early on and when a book can get the day started in the right direction with a few early positive decisions eliminating those legs of parlays, it makes the risk much less going into the afternoon games, which is a whole new wave of games which bettors try to get back to even and maybe even chase a few for that purpose.

"One of our biggest decisions of the day that went our way was the Illinois-Missouri game," Osborne said. "We had a good mix on straight bets, but the parlay action was unbelievably one-sided for that game in laying Illinois. I know a lot of publications and pre-season magazines were all down on Missouri and touted Illinois as one the better plays of the day and the public followed suit with the same opinion."

Illinois opened up a 5½ point favorite and was bet up to 7. The slight movement in the line, Osborne explained, is the perfect example of standard bookmaking in which the book moves only on the straight bets and let the parlays fall as they may. You can only book a game for what is going to happen as a consequence of that particular decision. If it’s the final game of the day and the risk is huge, moving slightly to eliminate known risk is proper, but not for a 12:30 game with dozens of decisions remaining.

In the later games, it was a mix of player and book wins splitting which generally means the house wins when factoring in all the parlay action. The public was on Oklahoma, who lost straight up as a 22-point favorite to BYU. They also were on Alabama who cashed for them vs. Virginia Tech and closed as a 7-point favorite.

Finally to close out the day with the late games, which are always the biggest risk games because of all the parlays waiting to hit on either side, the books split again winning with Washington covering against favored LSU, but losing with Cal’s beat down of Maryland.

In many instances, those late games are four way losses for the books with the sides and totals because of all the day’s built up parlay risk culminating into that final game.

UCLA-USC

The battle for Los Angeles may have just gotten a little more interesting by the impressive debut of two freshman QB’s – Matt Barkley of USC and Kevin Prince of UCLA. Bruins Head Coach Rick Neuheisel had thrown down the gauntlet in regards to getting UCLA back to being the best team in Los Angeles.

USC Head Coach Pete Carroll hasn’t even acknowledged it or responded to it as if having the hammer vs. nail rivalry mentality. Does the nail think there’s a rivalry with the hammer?

UCLA won by 19 over San Diego State Saturday and two question marks coming into the season were answered. The offensive line is vastly improved and will be able to run the ball along with protecting the QB. Prince came in and controlled the game with confidence not seen by many freshmen, let alone a UCLA QB for the last few years.

USC’s Matt Barkley did the same in their pummeling of San Jose State and looked like a seasoned veteran rather than the first USC freshman to start an opener.

This may not be the year for UCLA to take down USC, but it looks like it’s going to be pretty fun watching these two freshmen for the next four years, if they stay that long.

USC-OHIO State

The Big Game of the Week, and game of the year for Columbus, Ohio, takes place this week between USC and Ohio State. The two teams couldn’t come in from more opposite directions. USC looks sharp in all facets, at least after the first quarter, despite losing almost their entire team to the NFL last season and showcased RB Joe McKnight and freshman QB Matt Barkley.

Ohio State needed a last minute 2-pt conversion returned for TD by the defense to secure a win against Navy. More importantly, their new offense led by QB Terrell Pryor didn’t look that sharp against an undersized Navy defense. It’s possible they were looking ahead to the game this week.

The Las Vegas Hilton opened the game a few months ago with USC a 3½ point favorite and it was bet down to 3. The line for this week’s game is USC -6 points, based on what happened last week.

There appears to be good value on the Buckeyes this week with the over inflated line. As sharp as the freshman looked against San Jose St., the reality is that USC punted in their first five drives of the game. Ohio State struggled late, but it was still a game that was 31-14 before all the Navy trickery.

Had it been the other way around with USC struggling and Ohio State romping last week, the over confidence of the winning side may have been too much for the big game. The wake-up call by Navy may have the Buckeyes a little more alert this week based on last week’s events.

Early Line Movements from Las Vegas on Monday

A few Pro Football Line Changes today when the books re-opened their lines at higher limits as opposed to what they had listed for the last two months at low limits.

Baltimore is -13 vs Kansas City (Cassel is doubtful)
Seattle is 8.5 vs Rams

College Football
USC opened up a 6 point favorite at Ohio State two months ago in early big game lines set and was bet down to 3. When the line re-opened on Monday, the Buckeyes opened as a 7 point underdog. The USC mashing of San Jose State and NAVY playing the Buckeyes close last week has a lot to do with the line which is set in part in handicapping what the public will play.

That's a lot of points to give Ohio State in Ohio Stadium.

Week 1 Pro Football Lines

NFL Spreads 9/10 - 9/14, 2009
Date & Time Favorite Spread Underdog
9/10 8:30 ET At Pittsburgh -5.5 Tennessee O/U 35.5
9/13 1:00 ET At Atlanta -4 Miami O/U 42.5
9/13 1:00 ET At Baltimore -11 Kansas City O/U 37.5
9/13 1:00 ET Philadelphia -1 At Carolina O/U 44.5
9/13 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -4 Denver O/U 44.5
9/13 1:00 ET Minnesota -4 At Cleveland O/U 40
9/13 1:00 ET At Houston -4.5 NY Jets O/U 44
9/13 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -7 Jacksonville O/U 44.5
9/13 1:00 ET At New Orleans -13 Detroit O/U 49
9/13 1:00 ET Dallas -5.5 At Tampa Bay O/U 41.5
9/13 4:15 ET At Arizona -6.5 San Francisco O/U 47.5
9/13 4:15 ET At NY Giants -6.5 Washington O/U 39.5
9/13 4:15 ET At Seattle -7.5 St. Louis O/U 43.5
9/13 8:20 ET At Green Bay -3.5 Chicago O/U 44

Monday Night Football Point Spread
9/14 7:00 ET At New England -10.5 Buffalo O/U 46.5
9/14 10:15 ET San Diego -9.5 At Oakland O/U 44

M Roberts Football Record

College Football Selections by M Roberts for week of Sept. 5

week: 3-5
season: 3-5

Overall, very lucky to get that. Colorado didn't show up, San Diego St covered by a half, and Oklahoma would have had trouble even with a healthy Sam Bradford.

College Football Selections: Sept 5, 2009

I'll be posting my College and Pro picks each week with a record for each as we go. The preferred side in the listed match-up is the team listed first with the spread, laying or taking, or unless it's a total where both teams are listed. Good Luck!

Nevada @ Notre Dame OVER 61.5 - Should be a close game, ND can’t stop anyone let alone a high powered Pistol offense that Nevada runs.

Oklahoma State -5.5 vs. Georgia - Too many question marks with Georgia replacing QB & RB’s; 3 headed monster for OSU gets their Championship run started Saturday.

Oklahoma -22 vs. BYU - Cougars no good away from Provo; big number, but Oklahoma should prevail in quality win in their quest to win title. Run it up for the computers.

Louisiana Tech +14 @ Auburn - War Eagles 2-12 in last 14 games against spread when a double digit favorite. LA Tech has strong defense and enough offense under Derek Dooley to contend for win.

Alabama -6 vs. Virginia Tech - Va Tech missing their top RB and has been 0-2 in their last two home openers on neutral fields. Saban has the Bama D ready in their quest for National Title. This is like a Bowl game essentially if they want to win it all.

San Diego State +19.5 @ UCLA - Still lots of question marks regarding UCLA’s offensive line and new QB Kevin Prince. Aztecs are good enough to hang and give Bruins an early scare.

LSU -17.5 @ Washington - Huskies went 0-12 last season, but have new coaching staff and philosophy. However, they still have many of the same players. LSU to win big.

Colorado -10.5 vs. Colorado St. - Last game to be played on a home field for the next 10 years as the series will go back to Invesco Field in Denver. Two teams going in opposite direction with the Buffs having the upper hand the last few season.

College Football Notes: Gators Huge Favorites to Win it ALL

College Notebook by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

The college football season officially begins this Thursday, kicking off with an excellent ACC/SEC match-up between N.C. State and South Carolina. After that, there are games running Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday culminating with the always intense rivalry between Miami-Florida and Florida State.

The biggest story coming into the season is how highly thought of and respected the defending national champion Florida Gators are. Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out opening odds to win the National Title this year at 2 to 1, which is the lowest figure in recent memory for any college championship in basketball or football.

LVSC odds maker Mike Seba helped set the line and recalls the only instance that came close to Florida’s 2 to 1 odds to start a season.

"USC in the 2005 season was close to 2 to 1, just because of winning the title in 2004 and bringing back most of their top players from that season, like Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush," Seba said. "That would be about it in recent history."

Florida finds itself in almost the same situation this year as they bring back 20 starters from the team that won last season, including all 11 starters on defense and all 11 of their back-ups.

But 2 to 1 odds? That seems a little extreme. Why would anyone bet into that number, or maybe, that’s exactly the intent of the number.

"We’re trying to draw action elsewhere for our books," Seba explains. "We anticipated the majority of the public wanting to play Florida, so in the process we raised some other teams to draw action and offset the overwhelming public perception."

Beyond all of the returning starters and momentum of winning the title last year, Florida also has a very favorable schedule that includes missing top-10 SEC teams like Alabama and Mississippi along with playing two non-conference cupcakes to start the year.

"They could lose at LSU on Oct. 10 and still make the championship game," Seba said. "When you look at the possibilities of their schedule and other top contenders, getting to the title game appears to be a much easier road than some. Oklahoma and Texas are top championship contenders, but one of them won’t even make their conference championship game."

Florida’s toughest opponent likely will be in the SEC championship game in which they’ll probably face one of the two teams they missed, Alabama or Mississippi, in the regular season.

Playing in a conference championship game does have its pitfalls, though, something the PAC-10 and Big-10 don’t have to deal with. Should Florida go on to lose that SEC title game, there goes a shot at winning a national championship.

Teams like Penn State and "The" Ohio State University will just kind of sit there and wait out the polls while the top two teams in the Big-12, SEC, and ACC slug it out.

Each of the them has the November 7 game circled on their calendar. Ohio State has a much tougher road prior to that contest just because of their date with USC on Sept. 12.

Should the Buckeyes get past the favored Trojans at Ohio Stadium, it sets up a nice meeting between expected undefeated teams when they meet in State College with the winner likely to get a shot in the BCS Title game.

LVSC’s odds for the Buckeyes are at 12 to 1 while Penn State is 30 to 1.

College Football Betting Notes:
The Las Vegas Hilton Superbook will be continuing to offer non-board games this season for just about every Division-1 team regardless of who they’re playing. The extra added lines are available Friday afternoons until kickoff each week.

The Hilton crew works hard in breaking down all the little schools to put a proper, fair line up.

What’s funny is that since not many others in the world do it, many of the so-called sharps that wait to look for a half point edge and follow major line moves will kind of be in no man’s land because they have nothing to base their opinion on.

It’s likely the Superbook does pretty well on these games just because of the unknown, not to mention their staff’s opinion on a number is sharper than most to begin with.
This week, number one ranked Florida welcomes Charleston Southern.

Another non-board game will be UNLV’s home opener against Sacramento State. The Rebels have been given a lot of recognition for their prospects this season by Mel Kiper and other experts on the Mountain West Conference.

Las VegasCollege Contest Notes:
This Friday is the deadline to get into Leroy’s College Football Challenge where you pick seven games against the spread each week. Entry fee is $250 with all fees returned as prize money. Leroy’s are everywhere, impossible to miss.

Station Casinos College Last Man Standing deadline to sign up is September 12 at 8 p.m., giving you one more week to handicap for the all important first week where nearly 40% of the contestants will be eliminated. Entry fee is $25 and if you buy four, you get one free.

All entry fees are returned as prize money to the last person standing. Pick a winner each week and stay alive for the next. I’ll make an over-under of 7 weeks until someone is crowned.

NFL Notebook

NFL Notebook by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

Any thoughts about Tom Brady’s shoulder possibly being hurt by Albert Hayesworth of the Redskins last week was put to rest when the Patriots released their back-up QB, Kevin O’Connell from San Diego State, on Sunday.

Don’t be surprised to see Denver’s Josh McDaniels, who groomed him in New England, to pick up O’Connell since he’s familiar with the system along with back Chris Simms being out. A fine Irish lad like O’Connell seemed like a nice story for future Boston headlines, but they’ll go elsewhere.

The QB battles have all but been settled in all NFL camps over the weekend. Rookie Mark
Sanchez was named starter last week prior to their preseason match against the Giants where he performed well.

Byron Leftwich has won the starting nod in a crowded backfield in Tampa Bay, beating out Luke McCown. However, this will not be the last time the decision is revisited.

Marc Bulger’s injured pinky doesn’t appear to be too serious as the Rams QB was back in practice Sunday and shouldn’t see any missed time.

The Browns QB position has been drawn out longer than it has to be by Browns head coach Eric Mangini, but Brady Quinn appears to have clinched the starting role based on his last performance where he showed leadership, strength of his pass and didn’t throw interceptions which has been the knock on Derek Anderson.

Daunte Culpepper started the Lions preseason game against the Colts on Saturday and was impressive, but overall first round draft pick Matt Stafford looked more impressive. He threw a couple laser beams down field that had to make the coaching staff rethink their stance about attempting to win right away as opposed to thinking long term and getting the rookie some reps in real games.

Matt Cassel’s injured knee might be an issue for their week one contest at Baltimore. X-rays turned out to be negative, but he’s expected to be out for possibly three weeks which may mean that he could miss the season opener in Baltimore. Tyler Thigpen and Brodie Croyle will get most of the snaps this week in their final pre-season game.

Terrell Owens’ injured toe will not present a problem once the team takes the field in week one’s battle at Foxboro against the Patriots for a Monday Night game in which they are a huge underdog. The team feels confident enough that the training camp chemistry between starting QB Trent Edwards and Owens will be enough to make them okay for week one.

Brandon Marshall’s suspension by the Broncos throughout preseason shouldn’t be such an alert. He may miss more, or maybe even be traded. Denver has four solid receivers who actually know their playbook and have a good cohesion with Kyle Orton in the Broncos new offensive scheme, which is predicated on the short passing game.

A good fit for Marshall may be Dallas or the New York Giants if they can’t get along. Chicago would be ideal and welcomed by Jay Cutler, but they don’t have any attractive draft picks to deal after giving them to Denver in the Cutler trade, nor would they be willing to auction off their future for someone on the brink of a four-game suspension as a triple offender of league policy.

The Bengals have finally signed their long estranged first-round draft choice, Andre Smith, leaving only Michael Crabtree remaining as a player who doesn’t want money now. For some reason, Crabtree’s people have made him believe he is worth more than the Raiders first round choice and first WR taken overall, Darrius Heyward-Bey. Doesn’t look like they have a lot of leverage in that one.

Betting Notes
Just a tidbit to the bettors of the wide world of wagering. Nevada bookmakers hope to break even or win about 3% on a realistic goal on their straight bet wagers during football season. Sometimes it’s higher, sometimes lower, but what they can usually count on is the reliability of raking in parlay money from the high hold percentages based on the greediness of players.

Between off the board parlays and parlay cards, that is where the sports books make their money. Hitting a six team parlay is awesome when it hits, but will never be a consistent winner no matter how good a handicapper you are.

The best advice of consistent play and maximizing your tough dollar throughout the football season is to play straight bets, nearly doubling your money, and mixing in two or three team parlays on a lower level scale of amount wagered.

On a much lower scale, take a shot with some of the great parlay cards around town that give fair odds with an eight, nine or 10-teamer. This will keep your possibilities open to having a one-in-a-million day, but also keep your best plays building your cash flow, that is, flowing if you’re correct on your best games!

Las Vegas Football Contests are a Must if You Like Free Money

by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

Football contests sponsored by Las Vegas casinos are a huge attraction to players during football season, partly because there is such a huge overlay, meaning that the casinos pay more out than they take in.

These contests range from weekly "freebies" to high-stakes affairs with buy-ins of $1,500 to $2,500 and more. Nonetheless, they might be the best value in Las Vegas for the guests because it remains one of the only consistently accepted loss leaders that the big casino bosses keep intact.

Most of these contests around town range from being free to $25 and the often encourage and reward multiple entries.

The minimal entry fee contests seem to be popular with everyone. Most of them don’t have point spreads and it’s all about picking the NFL winners, which can be more difficult than it seems. Everyone has an equal opportunity, so whether the entrant actually handicaps the teams or uses a strategy by picking colors or choosing their favorite city, it’s wide open.

For the serious handicapper who prides himself on being better than most in picking winners against the spread, there are several high-end contests in Las Vegas – usually against the world’s top experts.

Another reason these high-stakes contests have become popular over the last decade is because there’s a smaller pool of players to go against, coupled with a high reward for beating them.

Another attraction to the high-end contests is they are often highly publicized around the betting world and they attract some of the best handicappers in the business. Recreational bettors are always intrigued to see who is documented by the contest as being the best and what their selections are from week to week.

Some of the players who have done well in these contests have actually gone on to have successful handicapping services using that publicity to spur their business.

Here’s a closer look at the upper-end football contests in Las Vegas.

Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest -Entry fee $1,500
This is the grandfather of all the high end contests and the one that started it all in Las Vegas. The base format is relatively unchanged with five mandatory pro football selections each week against the spread, with all entries, fees returned as prize money. But Hilton Super Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay saw a need to make a subtle change this year.

"Our objective was to generate more than the 350 entries we had last season," Kornegay said, "and one small change could help, which is pushing back the contest entry deadline of Friday to Saturday at 11 a.m. We may have hindered ourselves in maximizing entries in the past with the nine to fivers who want to go to a book after work on a Friday, handicap, have a beer, and unwind."

This will be Kornegay’s fifth year running the contest, which pays out to the top 20, with the winner getting $220,000. The Super Contest also offers bonuses totaling up to $20,000 paid out of their own pocket: $10,000 will be guaranteed to the best record over the last three weeks of the season for all entrants that sign up before Sept.7. The other bonus of $10,000 goes to contestants who can hit 67% or higher for the season.

"It seems like a really tough achievement," Kornegay said, "but we’ve paid the bonus in two of the last five years."

South Point Friendly Frank’s Pro Challenge: Entry Fee $2,500
This will be the third year the South Point will be offering the high end contest. This is another contest that has a huge overlay possibility. They are guaranteeing $250,000 in prize money regardless if they get the 100 entries it would take to pay for the contest. All additional entry fees are paid out to the top four finishers, with the winner guaranteed $100,000.

Another attraction to this contest is the bonus of $50,000 to contestants who win at a 65% clip or better for the year. All weekly entries must be submitted by 2 p.m. on Saturday.

M Resort Football Contest: Entry Fee: $3,000
Opened last March, M Resort is the newcomer on the block, but they’re doing everything to catch the neighbors’ attention. This contest has the highest entry fee of all the high end contests in Las Vegas. Only 30 entries will be taken for the contest with a $100,000 prize pool.

One of the major differences between M’s contest and some of the others is that they require contestants to pick three pro games and three college games against the spread. Each week, the full schedule of games will be used with about 15 college games offered to choose from.

To entice players to sign up early, the M is offering an early-bird bonus of a $2,000 two-team Super Bowl parlay to entrants who sign up before Aug. 29.

Station Casinos: The Challenge: Entry fee: $500
The Station’s high end contest made a few changes, and they are very player friendly, with virtually no risk for the player. The contest entry has been dropped to $500 from the $1,000 entry fee of the past, but in the new format, Stations will give back all of the all entry fee for just turning in your selections all 17 weeks. Just play every week and it’s basically a free roll.

On top of the free-roll, Stations will also place $100 into your sports connection account should you turn in selections for all 17 weeks. They are basically paying the guest $100 to hold your money for 17 weeks and ensure you make a weekly visit each week of the football season.

The top prize for winning is a guaranteed $25,000. Second place is $10,000, with third place taking $5,000. They also have a $10,000 bonus for the best record in the four week mini-contest. Another bonus of $50,000 is offered for contestants who can pick at a 67% clip or better.

The concept remains the same. Make five selections each week with the weekly pro football games and two selected college games. Updated standings are posted each week in the book.

The new changes are fantastic and very player friendly, equally for the recreational bettor and sharp players alike.

LeRoy’s Pro and College Challenge: Entry Fee: $250 each
The sports book with multiple locations throughout Nevada has a couple of mid-range priced contests that appeal to both college and NFL football handicappers. Each contest entry fee is $250 with all prize money returned to the players.

The lower price and mix of both college and pro action make this a very attractive opportunity for both the serious handicapper and the recreational bettor. In each contest, the top 40 finishers win prize money, which is dictated by the amount of entrants. If 400 entries are signed up, first place will net $30,000.

Players can buy up to five entries per person for each league. In the college format, the entrant must select seven games a week against the spread. Deadline for entries is Friday, Sept. 4.

In the pro format, the entrant must select five games a week and the deadline to sign-up is Saturday, Sept. 12.

Cal Neva Gridiron Gold: Entry Fee: $250
All entry fees will be returned in this contest that asks you to make five selections a week against the spread. With an estimated 650 entries expected, $162,500 in cash would be available for the prize pool.

Most of the Cal Neva casinos are in the 26 Northern Nevada locations, but entries may be taken to Casino Valle Verde in Henderson near Sunset Station.

In addition to the high-end contests, the "one and done" or elimination contests have become very popular with players.

Elimination Contests

Station Casinos: Last Man Standing Entry fee: $25
Station sports books have made the college version of Last Man Standing and the pro version available at all Fiesta and Station properties. Both of these contests have been wildly popular in the Las Vegas Valley because all entry fees are returned to the winner and the volume of players has made the top prize very beefy, increasing each year since the contest began.

In both versions, you can buy four entries and get one free. Make one selection against the spread per week. If you win, you advance to the next week, until there is ultimately one contestant remaining.

An added bonus this season is an extra $100,000 dangling out there should someone happen to win both. It may seem like a tall task, but last season there was one player around Las Vegas that won several of the contests, so it can be done.

LeRoy’s Horse and Sports Place : Three-n-Out Entry fee: $25
This is an interesting King of the Hill type format that asks the contestant to make one selection a week playing pro games using either a side or a total. The concept is simple: keep picking winners and you advance to the following week; as a bonus, you get three losses until you’re out.

This is a very affordable contest that can actually stretch your $25 buy-in a long way in entertainment value. It’s also very convenient because LeRoy’s are everywhere in Nevada. All entry fees are returned and whoever is the final contestant without losing three times wins it all.

An added bonus is if you should be so unlucky to lose your first three weeks, it’s an automatic comp entry into the mid-season contest.

Finally, the bread-and-butter of the football contests are the "no spread" contests that simply require the player to pick the outright winners. These attract the most interest and create the largest crowds in the sports books.

Coast Resorts : Pick the Pro’s Football Contest: Entry fee: FREE!
What if I said there was a weekly contest offering $30,000 in prize money and there were eight locations across the Vegas Valley where you could sign up and turn in your weekly picks? That’s an easy sell, right? What if I added it was free? Would that be of interest?

That’s exactly what Coast Resorts is offering. They also give everyone who signs up three free entries. They don’t place any conditions on the free entry other than signing up for their players club card, which is free too.

If you already have a Coast Club players card, you can register at PickthePros.com which will also make you eligible for sweepstakes prizes available for only those online entries. During the season, you can also check the weekly winners to see if you rank with your selections. Sign-ups have already begun and there is no cut off date since the prizes are weekly. Over $500,000 in cash prizes are up for grabs. Did I mention it was free?

Station Casinos: Great Giveaway: Entry fee: $25
This staple of Las Vegas contests is a weekly no-points contest that is offering $1.4 million in cash prizes with weekly prizes and end of season prizes. As always, if you buy two entries, you get one free. Players who have points on their Boarding Pass card may also use them to purchase entries.

Continuing with the Great Giveaway’s long-time tradition, most wins for the season wins a house, or you can take $100,000.

The contest remains unique because you can also challenge for picking the most losers, which has a grand prize of $100,000.

The weekly prizes are $20,000 for the winners and $10,000 for the losers. For the winners, you have the option of taking a brand new Ford F150 pickup truck instead of the $20,000.

Palms - Pigskin Payoff: Entry Fee: $25
This contest has been attractive over the years because of the small pool of contestants, compared to the contests offered by the multi-property chains. If you buy three entries, the Palms will give you three more for free. In addition, if you sign up before September 3, you’ll be given $10 in slot play.

This is a no spread contest, just pick the winners for weekly prizes of $15,000 and $10,000 guaranteed to one winner. End of season prizes total $100,000. When comparing the overall prizes for all the no spread contests, the Palms prizes are pretty large.

Lucky’s Race and Sports Books Progressive Parlay Card
Last season, one of the more creative features a sports book offered was Lucky’s progressive parlay card, which begins at $6,000 and increases $6,000 each week until someone finally hits it. The big pay day finally came at Terrible’s in Las Vegas where the Lucky winner took home $48,000.

The parlay card is simple. All you have to do is sign up to be eligible for making an entry. It requires 16 selections being made with no point spread. Should you get all 16 games correct, you win the weekly progressive pool wherever it stands. The best part about the progressive format is that it is 100% FREE! It doesn’t get much cheaper than that, and the overlay is through the roof on this one.

"We got some great response from the players last year," said Lucky’s Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro, "so we expanded upon that success and added a consolation prize this year for the players that come just short of going 16-0."

The progressive parlay cards come out every Tuesday and are available at all 12 Nevada Lucky’s locations spread throughout Laughlin, Primm, Las Vegas, Pahrump, Carson City, Reno, and Elko.

Football Season Getting Vegas Geared Up!

by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

The football season has begun in Las Vegas, which is unlike any other football city in America because of the emphasis the casinos place on making the action as exciting as any college tailgate party or NFL stadium.

It’s a time of year in which each casino attempts to out-market the competition, making their promotions the most attractive, which will hopefully maximize traffic through the doors.

The sports betting business is definitely larger during football season, even though revenue figures pale in comparison to what the overall casino takes in. However, the traffic driven to a casino by the football games on a typical weekend spills over onto the table games, slot machines and food and beverage outlets, making it a catalyst for other areas of the casino.

Casino promotions range from food and drink specials and football parties, to special handicapping contests, unique parlay cards, innovative prop and fantasy bets and space-age devices designed to enhance the betting experience, such as M Resort’s "in-running" betting computers, which open a whole new realm for bettors.

Some casinos have taken it up a notch with their facilities and how the game is presented to their customers. For instance, some casinos christen sports "cathedrals" with their high-tech video displays, lounges, private boxes, bottle service and catered food, and they will even place televisions around the table games to keep the players in touch with the action.

Station Casinos this season is setting up their viewing parties within all of their massive sports books, which are some of the greatest viewing screens ever created for sports viewing. They are adding a nice mix to each week of the regular football season by offering $1 hot dogs and Budweiser. Yes, one U.S. dollar, all day long, for all season long. It’s quite a deal, and with all the savings, it leaves a few extra bucks for the important things like betting.

The Stratosphere, appropriately, takes football action to new heights with parties set up for its showroom.

"Every Sunday through the football season we will be opening up our showroom with big screen TV’s and show all the morning and afternoon games," said Stratosphere Race and Sports Book Director Ed Malinowski. "We have the ability to accommodate up to 600 people and seat them comfortably in table and booth seating, which make it more comfortable if you’re with a group of friends as opposed to makeshift row seating."

In addition to food and drink specials, Malinowski said they will have four convenient bet stations located outside the room. They are also offering an added bonus this season for guests checking into the hotel who will get a selection card for games. If they’re winning pick is selected in a drawing, their stay in the hotel will be free.

The Las Vegas Hilton’s Super Book is appropriately named, especially during the football season. With its expansive wagering menu already reason enough to visit the Super Book on Sunday’s, its Football Central is a great place to watch all the games in a raucous smoke-free environment.

"If you have never been to Football Central, you really need to check it out," said Super Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay, "It‘s truly a great environment with betting available, drink and food specials, former football player appearances signing autographs, and loads of prizes given away for simply being there."

Football Central has a capacity of 1,500 guests with large screens set up so the action isn’t missed anywhere you choose to sit.

Regardless of which sports book in Las Vegas you visit, you’ll sense an excitement and eagerness as customers anticipate the upcoming season.

"There is a massive turnaround in business going from baseball season to football for us," said South Point’s veteran Sports Book Director Bert Osbourne. "Everything is on a larger scale for football from the crowds – the volume of actions, and then the decisions. Everyone has just been waiting for this to start after a long, hot summer and there is something about football that stirs up an enormous amount of energy with the players."

Brett Favre Saga is Finally Over: He is Officially a Viking

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. (AP) -Brett Favre is coming back for more.

The 39-year-old quarterback turned his back on retirement for the second time in as many years, agreeing Tuesday to play for the Vikings.

Favre took a morning flight on a team plane from Mississippi to Minnesota, arrived to cheering fans outside the team's practice facility and was in a helmet and pads less than 90 minutes later. His red practice jersey was the familiar No. 4, the same number he wore for years with the rival Green Bay Packers.

The team confirmed a deal was done to The Associated Press, but terms were not immediately disclosed.

This is Favre's second comeback. A year ago, he came out of a short retirement to join the Jets.
Favre had arthroscopic surgery to fix his throwing shoulder in May and three weeks ago told coach Brad Childress he would stay retired. The Vikings wrapped up training camp last week -

Favre was never a big fan of training camp - and beat Indianapolis 13-3 in their preseason opener Friday. They even got an encouraging performance from quarterback Sage Rosenfels, who has been competing with Tarvaris Jackson for the starting job.

All that goes out the window with Favre returning to add to a resume that already includes nearly every NFL career passing record.

His zinger of an arm and toughness in the pocket are a combination few possess. With an offense he says he could operate in his sleep, Favre seems to fit well with Minnesota - epecially given the Vikings' problems finding a reliable quarterback since Childress took over in 2006.

The Vikings have Pro Bowl players all over their roster, with reigning NFL rushing leader Adrian Peterson in the backfield and a dominant defensive line. No matter who's behind center, they ought to be in position to defend their NFC North title.

To win the conference, and perhaps that elusive Super Bowl, they'll need stability at the sport's most critical position.

Favre has wrestled with retirement for most of this decade and the will-he-or-won't-he saga became an annual offseason drama for the Packers, his longtime home. In Green Bay, the latest news elicted a few shrugs, little more.

A few months after Favre's tearful goodbye news conference in March 2008, Green Bay traded him to the Jets when he tried to come back, only to learn the Packers were committed to Aaron Rodgers. Favre started strong in New York, but faded down the stretch amid problems with his throwing arm and, with another ``I'm done'' announcement, headed for his second retirement.

The Jets released him from his contract right after the draft and soon after, the Vikings were openly expressing interest. Favre spent the summer working out in Mississippi and led everyone to believe he was on his way back to the NFL until last month.

``It was the hardest decision I've ever made,'' Favre told ESPN then. ``I didn't feel like physically I could play at a level that was acceptable.''
The next day, Childress was asked whether there was a chance the Vikings would still pursue Favre. He said: ``Not from my standpoint, no.'' Owner Zygi Wilf reiterated that pledge on the first day training camp.

And yet here comes Favre, who turns 40 in October and said last month he didn't think he had enough left to get through a full season.

``I had to be careful not to commit for the wrong reasons,'' Favre said then. ``I'm 39 with a lot of sacks to my name.''

He has a lot of interceptions to his name, too, more than any other quarterback in NFL history. The last time Favre appeared in the playoffs - a bitter loss at Lambeau Field by the Packers to the New York Giants in the NFC Championship game following the 2007 season - he put up one of his worst performances in recent memory.

Andy Reid Optimistic Despite Injuries

Posted by ESPN.com's Matt Mosley

BETHLEHEM, Pa. -- Eagles coach Andy Reid refuses to let all the setbacks during the first two weeks of training camp get him down. In Monday's morning session, two more Eagles, Trent Cole and Kevin Kolb, had to leave the field with injuries. He's already lost Stewart Bradley for the season, and starting right tackle Shawn Andrews is out indefinitely with an injured back.

Coach Andy Reid is fighting the injury bug on his Eagles squad.Still, Reid looked as content Monday as I've ever seen him. He also looks a lot thinner after losing somewhere close to 75 pounds on a Medifast diet that was inspired by Maryland's famously large football coach, Ralph Friedgen. I asked him if he still enjoyed training camp as much as he did when he took over 11 years ago.

"I love it. I love it," he said.

And he said all the adversity that has come the Eagles' way so far in camp hasn't dampened his spirits. Reid admitted that he wanted to see more "continuity" on the offensive line, but he said the fact that players such as Nick Cole and Max Jean-Gilles have started games in the past makes him feel better about things.

Reid's demeanor when I brought up Shawn Andrews suggests to me that he's not all that optimistic about him returning any time soon. He said he doesn't have a good idea when the right tackle will return, and on Sunday, he told reporters that Andrews' status for the regular season opener was still in doubt.

"It's his back muscle," said Reid. "We'll calm it down and go from there. I can't tell you when he'll be ready."

What Reid knows is that a banged up offensive line could neutralize a potentially explosive offense. He acknowledged the Eagles had assembled "a lot of talent" on offense. Many of you wanted to know how much progress rookie wide receiver Jeremy Maclin's making, so I asked Reid that very thing.

"He's intelligent," Reid said of Maclin. "He's got good size and strength and it looks like he wants to be a good player. He's going to have to learn the schemes, but he's a quick learner."

Reid was once an assistant coach at Missouri, but it's not like they were running the spread offense in those days. We talked about how difficult it is for a receiver to make the transition from the spread to the Eagles' West Coast offense.

"Obviously, the closer the [college] system is to what we do, the better chance there is to learn the offense," Reid said. "But if you're willing to work at it, [the transition] can take place fairly quickly."

As a fan of Big 12 football (particularly the Waco representative), I was curious whether Reid thinks the spread offense would work in the NFL.

"Well, the quarterback has to take some hits in that offense to make it work," Reid said. "And the passing part of it, we already do a lot of this stuff. As a coach, you'd just hate to see the quarterback get that banged up. Some of these [college] guys are tough hombres."

I also asked Reid if he's still coming to terms with the fact that defensive coordinator Jim Johnson's not around. I was curious if he still has moments where he wants to ask Johnson a question and it sort of hits him what's happened.

"No, we're not in the same situation that people who didn't go through the whole process [of Johnson's illness] were in," said Reid. "There was a transition that took place, and we're moving along with that."

Reid did say that it really started to hit home with him when he was at the Pro Bowl without Johnson.

"He's what every coach wants to be," Reid said of Johnson. "He's a grandfather. And he was the best grandfather."

Regarding the rash of injuries in camp, I asked Reid if he ever stopped and said, 'Am I doing something wrong here?'"

"Most of those things happened in thud drills," said Reid, referring to mostly non-contact drills.

"I don't get caught up in all that stuff. You're sad for the person who goes through it, but on the other hand, you have to expect these things. Let's go play football."

So what do you think of the NFC East this season?

"The last three years the NFC East has been phenomenal," he said. "It's the most competitive it's been in a long time."

Reid also talked about the loss of an emotional leader such as safety Brian Dawkins. He's not worried about other guys on the defense assuming that role.

"I think we've got good leadership on defense," he said. "We'll just sort of let their personalities show when they play. The whole defensive front are great leaders. Mike Patterson, Darren Howard... and [linebacker] Joe Mays came on as a rookie. And you have Omar Gaither to sort of get you going."

Reid said the fact that Johnson did a "great job of cultivating young talent" is one of the reasons he's not going to panic about injuries.

One last thing: What is different about Donovan McNabb today than, say, three years ago?
"You just get a better feel for the offense," said Reid. "He's seen it all. He's able to take you through the whole package. He's a good player."

OK, I have to race back for special teams practice. I have interviews with LeSean McCoy, Brent Celek and Maclin to share with you over the next couple days. And special thanks to Deja Brew in downtown Bethlehem for providing my workspace this afternoon.

Vikings QB Jackson Sprains MCL in Practice

by Associated Press

MANKATO, Minn. -- When defensive tackle LeTroy Guion rolled up on Tarvaris Jackson's left knee in practice on Saturday, the Minnesota Vikings' quarterback competition nearly ended before it really started.

Much to Jackson's relief, the injury was not nearly as serious as it first looked and he expects to be back on the field competing for the starting job in no time.
Jackson

Jackson sprained the MCL in his left knee, but avoided any serious injury, a person with knowledge of his condition told The Associated Press. The person requested anonymity because the team did not make an official announcement.

Coach Brad Childress declined to divulge the specific injury, but said Jackson would be OK.

"It looks like he'll be just fine," Childress said.

It was still a scary sequence for the Vikings. During an 11-on-11 drill in helmets, shoulder pads and shorts in the morning practice, Guion got tangled up with a few offensive linemen and fell to the ground just as Jackson was stepping up in the pocket. The 303-pound tackle rolled up on Jackson's leg, the kind of play that has often inflicted far more serious damage.

"I really don't know what happened," Guion said. "Everybody was moving so fast."

The fourth-year pro first received some attention at a tent on the side of the field before heading to the team's locker room area at Minnesota State University, Mankato. He got an MRI, which revealed the most mild form of a sprain, and the rest of the team breathed a sigh of relief.

Jackson is in a competition with Sage Rosenfels for the starting quarterback position after Brett Favre decided not to come out of retirement and join the Vikings.

"We're competing out here and I'm sure he'll be back," Rosenfels said. "You never want to see anyone with an injury, even an opponent much less your own teammate."

In his four seasons in the pros, Jackson has had to deal with multiple injuries. He tore the meniscus in his right knee during his rookie season, missed two games with a strained groin, one with a broken finger and one with a concussion in 2007. He sprained his right knee in the preseason last year but did not miss any regular-season games because of it.

"Whether it's Tarvaris or any of your guys, you don't want to see any of your guys go down, no matter who it is," offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell said after practice. "Whether it's your quarterback, your third tight end, it doesn't matter. You don't like to see anybody have any type of injury."

The Vikings have held three practices since training camp began on Friday, and Jackson and Rosenfels have been splitting the snaps with the first team.

"It's pretty tough [to see that], especially in practice," left tackle Bryant McKinnie said.
"Hopefully he'll be all right."

In his first season on the job in 2006, Childress drafted Jackson in the second round as his quarterback of the future. He has been up and down in his first three seasons in the league, which led to the recruitment of Favre all summer long.

When Favre called Childress on Tuesday to tell him he wasn't coming, the competition started anew for Jackson and Rosenfels.

Jackson's familiarity with the offense appears to have given him a slight edge so far, but it's still very early in the competition.

"At this time, Tarvaris has a little bit more knowledge of our system," Bevell said. "He is an athletic quarterback. He's got a very strong arm and those would be the positives about him."

Childress said there was no need at this point to bring in another quarterback to help out Rosenfels and third-stringer John David Booty in practice, a telling statement on the health of Jackson.

Jackson missed the Vikings' practice on Saturday night. If he can't go for the team's lone practice on Sunday, Rosenfels and Booty will get all the work.

"You can't put a price on the elevated snaps they're getting," Childress said.