Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Cantor Gaming Sports Book First to Post 2012 NFL Season Win Totals

Cantor Gaming Sports Book at the Hard Rock Hotel
Micah Roberts

At 8:30 am (PT) on Wednesday morning Cantor Gaming sports books in Las Vegas became the first book in the state to offer NFL Season win totals. Sports books like the LVH Super Book and MGM Resorts are scheduled to have their totals posted by Memorial Day.

The Patriots and Packers both open up with the highest totals at 12 wins each with a slight shade on the money to the OVER. The worst expected teams are the Colts, Jaguars and Browns at 5 ½ wins with a heavy shade on the money to the UNDER.

Six teams have 10 wins posted while the 21 other teams are all bunched together from 9 ½ to 6 wins. Those 21 teams in the middle is where the bulk of the action will come in on. It’s those teams that often show the greatest disparity from what the sharp player thinks a team will do and the what the sports book posts.

By being the first to post the season wins, it allows for Cantor Gaming to get action from bettors who have a strong opinion on what teams will do rather than getting wagers from those who are scalping prices from different numbers at other sports books. Once the LVH and MGM post their numbers, there will be a frenzy of action from bettors trying to set up a middle for themselves playing both sides at different books.

Because the totals are so small compared to what we see posted in baseball and the NBA, every half-a-win and every cent on the over-under is analyzed by the sharpest minds with the goal of finding an edge. Usually there are about six to seven teams the sharp players already have pegged that they project will have a much improved season from 2011 or show a major decline.

One of those teams last season was the Cincinnati Bengals who came into 2011 with rookie quarterback Andy Dalton as their starter. In 2010 the Bengals won only four games, but when the first totals were posted in town by MGM Resorts, the Bengals were listed at 7 ½ wins for 2011.

Most bettors had the feeling the Bengals would be slightly better than 2010, but not better than 6 wins. This number was pummeled all the way down to 6 ½ and eventually 6 after all the other books posted their numbers, most of which reluctantly started with 7 wins only because MGM Resorts set the market so high. The Bengals finished 9-7 and made the playoffs last season.

This year, Cantor Gaming opened the Bengals at 7 ½ wins, OVER -130.

Because of Peyton Manning’s arrival in Denver, there are sure to be a lot of differing opinions on their total of 9 ½ wins. They have the highest total posted among the AFC West teams, but not by much. The Chargers are set at 9 wins, the Chiefs at 8 and the Raiders at 7. Denver did win their division last year, but will be running a completely different offensive system to accentuate the talents of Manning.

We’ll update in a couple of days how the first wave of action went at Cantor Gaming and then also detail the type of action that came in everywhere in town once LVH and MGM posted their totals.

First Wave of Action at Cantor Gaming Sports Book
The action came in fast and strong when Cantor Gaming opened Las Vegas’ first glimpse of this years NFL season win totals Wednesday morning. Cantor is taking a good size bet with a $3,000 limit on the totals and according to sports book director Mike Colbert, a bunch of those limits plays shuffled the opening numbers on a handful of teams.

“We had multiple wagers come in early on a few teams, mostly on the under,” said Colbert from his M Resort and Spa office. “The largest line movement we’ve had thus far (11:00am PT) has been bettors taking the under on the Broncos and Buccaneers. The Broncos went from 9 ½ under-120 to under -170 and the Bucs went from 6 under-120 to under-170.”

A few of the other early plays that came in with less enthusiasm, but still multiple times, was the Saints being bet from 10 over-125 to under-125. The Cardinals were bet from 7 under-120 to under-140 and the Chiefs went from 8 under-110 to under-125.

The only team that saw multiple limit wagers betting OVER the total was Cam Newton’s Panthers who went from 7 ½ over-115 to over-135.

“I was a little surprised by the Saints being bet under,” said Colbert, “but I’m really shocked at the type of action that came in on the Broncos under.”

The MGM Resort sports books will open their NFL season win totals tomorrow, and not Monday as previously reported. The LVH Super Book should also have their numbers posted over the weekend.

When those two other numbers go up, that is where the real fun starts. The disparity between their numbers will slowly get them all close to each other by the bettors and that will be the market number that most of the other sports books will eventually post.

We’ll keep you updated along the way with all the action that occurs.

Easy to See Why Bettors Would Bet UNDER on Broncos
The Broncos were one of the two most heavily bet teams, along with the Buccaneers, when Cantor Gaming sports books first opened their NFL Season win totals on Wednesday. Both teams were bet UNDER their posted total that had the Broncos opening at 9 ½ wins under-120.

Sharp bettors couldn’t get enough of the UNDER and bet Denver all the way down to under-170. Part of the reason for thinking the Broncos won’t have a better record than last season rests with their schedule, the most difficult of any team this season. Not only do the Broncos have to play six tough games within the always competitive AFC West, but seven of their other 10 games are against teams that made the playoffs last season.

Peyton Manning and the Broncos better get as sharp as they can during training camp and pre-season because things could get bad in a hurry if they’re not. Manning has little time to waste as the Broncos home opener is against the Steelers, not exactly the type of defense a new offense wants to face.

Following the Steelers, Denver has to play at Atlanta and then come back home to play the Texans in week 3. It’s quite possible that by the time Manning finally gets his game timing down that Denver could be 0-3.

In week 5 the Broncos play at New England, week 8 is against the Saints, week 9 at Cincinnati, week 10 at Carolina and week 15 at Baltimore. Those are all games that Denver could lose that no one would say they 'didn’t see that coming'.

Carolina’s team gets upgraded in value just because they were the only team to be bet multiple times OVER the total of 7 ½ wins. Denver losing at Carolina this season would not be a shock. Cantor’s week 10 line for the game opened as a pick’em.

When you mix in their six divisional games, which are always close, it would be unreasonable to think Denver could win all three on the road as they did last season. 4-2 looks very possible, but so does 3-3.

So when you break down the Broncos schedule, an 8-8 record with maybe 9-7 being the high point, it’s easier to understand why bettors went so heavy on the Broncos UNDER. If the Broncos managed to win 10 or more games with that schedule, they would then have to be considered one of the Super Bowl favorites.

List of Cantor Gaming 2012 NFL Season Totals

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