Friday, November 13, 2015

NFL Week 10 line movement from Las Vegas

 South Point sports books is always hopping with action.
There are 12 games on Sunday's NFL Week 10 schedule, but South Point sports book director Bert Osborne has his attention focused on two games that he knows will have a big impact on whether his books across Las Vegas win or lose.

"We took some wise-guy action on the Lions at +11.5," said Osborne, "but we're overloaded on parlays already with the Packers at about a 10-to-1 ratio (cash taken in) that's going to make a Packers cover have a lingering effect on the entire day."

What Osborne is talking about is the parlay tidal wave effect of one root game that can do the most damage. If Green Bay covers, he banks the Lions straight bet action from the wise guys, but the multiplying parlay odds of Packers action live on for the rest of the day and even into Monday night. If some of the other popular public teams come cashing in as well, it'll be a long Sunday for the books.

"Volume-wise, the game that has taken the most action has been the Giants-Patriots game," said Osborne who has the Patriots as 7-point home favorites. "The straight bet action has been good and we're not too overloaded on either side, but the teaser wagers have been through the roof on the Patriots and the parlays have come in at just over a 5-to-1 ratio on the Patriots. This is going to be a big game for us."

Even more so if the Packers cover earlier in the day.

So not only does Osborne have to root for the Giants to cover, for the sake of his teaser action, his book will need the Giants to win straight up to eliminate that risk. Surprisingly, he said the Packers, despite being a big favorite, aren't a big teaser game and that they've had good two way action on it.

"The Patriots seem to be tied into almost every teaser," said Osborne. "The next two biggest teaser games for us is the Panthers and Rams."

Just a quick back story: Osborne was always a favorite of NFL teaser bettors in Las Vegas when he offered 6-point two-team teasers while at Coast Resorts at only EVEN money and he always took big bets. After continually seeing the two-team teaser be one of the lowest earners -- sometimes a regular loser -- he adjusted his teaser pay chart up to -110 and then to -120 about eight years ago, which is still the best odds in the city -- most books start at -130.