Forget preseason NFL, baseball still the better bet

All Michael Fulmer does is win every time out.

LAS VEGAS -- It sure was awesome seeing those NFL uniforms on the field for the first time over the weekend and the Rams back in Los Angeles.

There’s no denying the power pro football has over most of us, and seeing all those odds on the board made any of the games a major attraction at Vegas sportsbooks.

People just love betting football, but let’s be careful not to forget about baseball where the games are meaningful and just starting to get intense with only seven weeks to go until the postseason begins.

Even with the MLB teams that are out of contention there are still a few starting pitchers – such as Cincinnati’s Dan Straily (+10.7 units) – that are dealing as if they’re in a pennant race.

The sportsbooks have been waiting for the preseason to start to take away some of their daily risk on baseball. The more you bet from your bankroll on preseason games where there is a 20-cent split on the spread, fixed odds on parlay pay charts and choosing sides that are featuring second and third strong players deciding your fate, the more the books love it. They want baseball risk to be limited with its 10-cent lines, true parlay payouts and hot pitchers.

Don’t let the books off the hook just yet. Keep firing away in MLB action. I have friends who love betting the preseason and say they do well with it because of the QB rotations and coaching tendencies.

In the first week of action it looked like a bunch of randomness with exception to Denver’s sick defense shutting out the Bears, 22-0, and Mike Zimmer’s Vikings winning again in the preseason to make him 9-1 in exhibitions as a head coach.

With baseball we’ve got some pitchers that get after it every game and have been piling up lots of money for bettors that have simply been riding them each time out.

Baltimore’s Chris Tillman doesn’t have the metrics to be considered for the AL Cy Young Award, but all the guy does is win and he’s carried the Orioles on his back all year. The O’s have won 20 of his 25 starts for +15.6 units of profit and because he doesn’t have the metrics like a Clayton Kershaw or Cole Hamels, he’s relatively cheap each time out. No starter has earned more money than him.

Detroit has won 16 of Michael Fulmer’s 19 starts and he has the metrics to compare with the best, but yet he’s still underpriced by about 25 cents each time out. His pitcher rating the sportsbooks have been using on him is similar to Tampa Bay’s Drew Smyly. If you’ve been betting Fulmer every time out you’re up +15.4 units.

Read More Here....Gaming Today

Are the Browns really the worst team in NFL?

Robert Griffin III is doing all the right things in camp.

Are the Cleveland Browns really the worst team in the NFL?

If looking at odds board all along the Las Vegas strip, the answer is yes. And there's lots of recent history to support the notion.

The Browns haven't had a winning record since 2007 (10-6) and they haven't made the playoffs since losing a Wild Card game in 2002. They come off an awful 3-13 season finishing dead last in the AFC North for the fifth consecutive year.

So it's not hard to understand why the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has them listed as the longest shot to win the Super Bowl at 200/1 -- double the next longest odds -- and also the lowest season win total at 4.5 (Over -155) -- the next lowest is Tennessee and San Francisco at 5.5 victories.

The crew at the CG Technology sport book hub office inside M Resort also don't have a high rating on the 2016 version of the Browns. They posted the first 16 weeks of spreads for every team in April and the Browns weren't favored in any of them. Not even one home game. The smallest spread placed upon them is a Week 16 game where the Chargers are 2-point road favorites.

CG has the Browns as their lowest rated team, just a point worse than Tennessee who are 3.5-point favorites in a Week 6 matchup in Nashville. If going by last year's awful numbers, the rating is hard to argue against as their average score was 17-27. They couldn't stop the run or pass on defense and their offense was almost as bad.

But action for Week 1 has actually come in on the Browns.

"One of the biggest moves we've had in Week 1 has seen the Browns drop from +8.5 to +6.5 at Philadelphia," said CG Technology's VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "But I don't think those wagers on the Browns were necessarily because of bettors liking them as much as they don't like the Eagles. There's a lot of anti-Eagles sentiment with smart money. One (respected) bettor bet against the Eagles in 13 of their 16 games we have have posted. And it doesn't just stop there with weekly games.

Read More Here......VegasInsider.com

Head Coach NFL pre-season records heading into 2016

Chip Kelly has gone 10-2 to the OVER in his 12 pre-season games as head coach.

PRESEASON RECORDS (1999-2015)

Team-Coach SU ATS O/U Arizona – Bruce Arians 6-6 7-4-1 6-6 Atlanta – Dan Quinn 2-2 2-2 3-1 Baltimore - John Harbaugh 20-12 19-13 17-15 Buffalo – Rex Ryan 13-15 13-15 19-9 Carolina - Ron Rivera 11-9 11-9 10-10 Chicago – John Fox 31-25 27-28-1 27-28-1 Cincinnati - Marvin Lewis 28-25 28-24-1 26-27 Cleveland – Hue Jackson 0-4 0-4 2-2 Dallas - Jason Garrett 8-13 6-14-1 8-12-1 Denver – Gary Kubiak 22-14 22-12-2 23-11-2 Detroit - Jim Caldwell 8-12 10-1 9-11 Green Bay - Mike McCarthy 20-20 20-20 26-14 Houston – Bill O’Brien 4-4 4-4 1-7 Indianapolis – Chuck Pagano 5-11 7-9 6-9 Jacksonville – Gus Bradley 4-8 6-6 3-9 Kansas City - Andy Reid* 32-36 30-34-4 39-27-2 Los Angeles - Jeff Fisher 38-42 37-41-2 38-28 Miami - Adam Gase - - - Minnesota – Mike Zimmer 8-1 7-2 4-5 New England - Bill Belichick* 46-39 42-36-7 31-33-1 New Orleans – Sean Payton 19-18 21-16 19-15-3 New York Giants - Ben McAdoo - - - New York Jets – Todd Bowles 3-1 3-1 2-2 Oakland – Jack Del Rio 22-18 21-17-2 22-18 Philadelphia - Doug Pederson - - - Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin 21-17 16-21-1 15-22-1 San Diego – Mike McCoy 5-7 7-4-1 5-7 San Francisco – Chip Kelly 7-5 7-5 10-2 Seattle - Pete Carroll* 25-16 27-13-1 17-11 Tampa Bay - Dirk Koetter - - - Tennessee - Mike Mularkey 6-6 7-5 5-6-1 Washington - Jay Gruden 6-2 5-3 2-6

- VegasInsider.com

Las Vegas Sports Book Notes: Football Contests for all Budgets

Check out GVR and all Station properties for Free GridIron Glory contest. 

It's mid-July in Las Vegas with the devil's breath of 107 degrees screaming daily which makes taking a walk down the strip in the day almost unbearable. But for those that do dare, it's worth the while if looking for unique things offered on the sports book boards that have never been seen, or seen so soon before.

Almost everyone has their season win totals posted for the NFL and college football season. The best NFL games of the year are already posted at the Westgate SuperBook and the most interesting college games of the year have been posted at the South Point and Golden Nugget. There's Heisman odds, MLB Cy Young and MVP odds, NFL division odds and Nevada approval for accepting Olympic wagers now allows us to bet 1-to-10 on USA men's and women's basketball each to win the Gold in Brazil.

We'll be taking a look at Las Vegas happenings weekly all the way through football season, but first let's start out with the football contests around town that fit just about anyone's budget.

How does free sound?

Station Casinos and Boyd Gaming are giving away over $1.25 million between them for free just for turning in selections weekly. There's also a few $25 contests and then a couple high-end tournaments offered at the Golden Nugget and Westgate.

Everyone knows about the Westgate's world renowned SuperContest with its $1,500 entry fee that saw a record 1,727 contestants enter last year, but some may not be aware that there's a high-end contest downtown at the Golden Nugget called the Friday Football Showdownwith an entry fee of $2,000. Last season there were 87 contestants with the winner taking 60 percent of the pool that translated into $117,000.

The major difference between the two high-end contests is that the Showdown is played like a football season with eight weeks determining who the top seven handicappers are after making seven selections using side and totals of college and NFL games. Those seven contestants advancing win $3,000. Weeks 9 and 10 is a wild card round with the non-qualified contestants all making nine selections each week which determines the final seed of the eight player bracket. The wild card winner faces the No. 1 seed, No. 2 faces No. 7 and so on. The winners of the quarterfinals get $2,000 for advancing.

Read More Here......VegasInsider.com

Super Bowl 50 Prop Trends in Las Vegas

London based William Hill has 104 sports books in Nevada

CURRENT ODDS AND TRENDS FOR PRO FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP 50 MVP

Below is a chart showing the current trends at the 104 William Hill Nevada Sports Books and Mobile Sports app for the Pro Football Championship 50 game MVP as of February 4, 2016. This is the first year that Pro Football Championship 50 MVP wagering has been available in Nevada.

Top 10 Most Popular Pro Football Championship 50 MVP bets by total # of tickets to win the MVP award:

PLAYER NAME	Opening Odds (1/26/16)	Current Odds (2/4/16)	% of total # of tickets
CAM NEWTON	-120	-160	13%
LUKE KUECHLY	25/1	16/1	12%
VON MILLER	40/1	20/1	11%
PEYTON MANNING	11/2	3/1	8%
GREG OLSEN	20/1	22/1	5%
AQIB TALIB	75/1	30/1	5%
DEMARCUS WARE	75/1	30/1	5%
JONATHAN STEWART	15/1	22/1	4%
TED GINN JR	18/1	22/1	4%
JOSH NORMAN	50/1	28/1	4%

 Top 10 Most Popular Pro Football Championship 50 MVP bets by Total $’s Wagered to win the MVP award:

PLAYER NAME	Opening Odds (1/26/16)	Current Odds (2/4/16)	% of total Dollars wagered
CAM NEWTON	-120	-160	40%
PEYTON MANNING	11/2	3/1	8%
DEMARCUS WARE	75/1	30/1	6%
AQIB TALIB	75/1	30/1	6%
BRANDON MCMANUS	50/1	25/1	5%
OWEN DANIELS	40/1	15/1	5%
CHRIS HARRIS	100/1	50/1	4%
BRANDON MARSHALL	100/1	40/1	4%
VON MILLER	40/1	20/1	4%
LUKE KUECHLY	25/1	16/1	1%

MOST POPULAR PRO FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP 50 PROP BETS-UPDATED AS OF 2/4/16

Below are two charts showing the top 20 most popular prop bets for Pro Football Championship 50 by number of total tickets and total dollars wagered. The most popular prop bet by total dollars wagered is on the alternate point spread proposition for the Panthers +7.5.

Top 20 most popular #SB50 Prop bets of the 834 ways to bet the game (pre-game) by total number of tickets:

Top 20 Most Popular #SB50 Prop bets (# of tickets) @WILLIAMHILLUS 2/4/16

Will there be a successful 2pt Conversion? YES

Will there be a Safety? YES

Result of Opening Coin Toss? HEADS

Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS -17.5

Special Teams or Defensive Touchdown? YES

Will there be a miss Extra Point in Game? YES

Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS -14.5

Panthers Total Points Scored in First Half: OVER 13

Result of Opening Coin Toss? TAILS

Will the Opening Kickoff be a Touchback? NO

First Score of Game? FIELD GOAL/SAFETY

Will there be Overtime? YES

Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS -10.5

Will the Opening Kickoff be a Touchback? YES

Both Teams with a 33 yard or longer Field Goal? YES

Will Greg Olsen Score a Touchdown? YES

Will Cam Newton have a Rushing Touchdown? YES

First Offensive Play from Scrimmage? PASS PLAY

Score in First 6.5 minutes of Game? YES

Total Players to attempt a Pass? OVER 2.5

Top 20 most popular #SB50 Prop bets of the 834 ways to bet the game (pre-game) by total dollars wagered:

Top 20 Most Popular #SB50 Props (% of total $’s) @WILLIAMHILLUS 2/4/16

Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS +7.5

Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS +14.5

Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS +3.5

Will there be a Safety? NO

Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS +10.5

Adjusted Game Total: TOTAL POINTS SCORED OVER 29.5

Will Cam Newton have a Rushing Touchdown? NO

Alternate Point Spread: BRONCOS +10.5

Will Broncos Score in every Quarter? NO

Wil Mike Tolbert Score a Touchdown? NO

Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS -17.5

Total Field Goals in Game? OVER 3.5

Broncos Player with 2 or more Touchdowns: NO

Total Interceptions in Game? OVER 1.5

Rushing Attempts for CJ Anderson: OVER 13.5

Successful 2pt Conversion? NO

Alternate Point Spread: BRONCOS +7.5

Rushing yards for Cam Newton: OVER 41.5

Will the Opening Kickoff be a Touchback? YES

Will Game be Tied after 0-0? NO