Friday, February 5, 2016

Super Bowl 50 Prop Selections from Las Vegas

CG Technology sports book inside Legasse's Stadium at Palazzo.
Most Las Vegas sports books are offering more than 300 props for Super Bowl 50, so we thought we‘d offer opinions on a few of them that have short prices. Some of the choices are based on the belief that Denver will win a close, low scoring game, but others could go either way no matter the outcome.

There is nothing quite like the betting intensity that comes with watching the Super Bowl while having multiple wagers on everything that happens throughout the game. Betting on just the outcome of who will win is almost boring and rather ordinary. Make it truly a super experience and get in on some of the additional fun. So let's take a look:

Cam Newton Rushing Yards: OVER 38.5 -115 (CG Technology)
He’s had 45 yards or more rushing in five of his last eight games and if the Broncos defense rattles him as much as we think they will, he’ll be more apt to try and do some things on his own to make something happen. In the 20-13 loss at Atlanta during Week 16, where he was kept on the sidelines for 35 minutes watching the Falcons ball control offense, he ran eight times for 45 yards. Even if we’re wrong with Denver being successful at ball control and the Panthers win, Newton is still likely to take off a few times to help solidify his MVP chances.

Cam Newton Rushing Attempts: OVER 8.5 -130 (CG Technology)
He went OVER 8.5 in 10 of his 18 games this season, including both playoff games. For much of the same reasons with the rushing yards, look for him to reach double figures here.

Will Cam Newton Score a Rushing Touchdown: YES +120 (Westgate SuperBook)
Even though we think Denver’s defense will give him fits, we do think he’ll find his way into the end zone, something he did 12 times on the ground during the regular season and playoffs. He‘s scored five rushing touchdowns in his past four games. Most of all, he loves the spotlight of scoring and an opportunity to do a Super Bowl dance of some kind, which he’s probably been choreographing for the last two weeks.

Read More Here....TheLinemakers.com

Thursday, February 4, 2016

Super Bowl 50 Prop Trends in Las Vegas

London based William Hill has 104 sports books in Nevada
CURRENT ODDS AND TRENDS FOR PRO FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP 50 MVP

Below is a chart showing the current trends at the 104 William Hill Nevada Sports Books and Mobile Sports app for the Pro Football Championship 50 game MVP as of February 4, 2016. This is the first year that Pro Football Championship 50 MVP wagering has been available in Nevada.

Top 10 Most Popular Pro Football Championship 50 MVP bets by total # of tickets to win the MVP award:
PLAYER NAME
Opening Odds (1/26/16)
Current Odds (2/4/16)
% of total # of tickets
CAM NEWTON
-120
-160
13%
LUKE KUECHLY
25/1
16/1
12%
VON MILLER
40/1
20/1
11%
PEYTON MANNING
11/2
3/1
8%
GREG OLSEN
20/1
22/1
5%
AQIB TALIB
75/1
30/1
5%
DEMARCUS WARE
75/1
30/1
5%
JONATHAN STEWART
15/1
22/1
4%
TED GINN JR
18/1
22/1
4%
JOSH NORMAN
50/1
28/1
4%
 Top 10 Most Popular Pro Football Championship 50 MVP bets by Total $’s Wagered to win the MVP award:
PLAYER NAME
Opening Odds (1/26/16)
Current Odds (2/4/16)
% of total Dollars wagered
CAM NEWTON
-120
-160
40%
PEYTON MANNING
11/2
3/1
8%
DEMARCUS WARE
75/1
30/1
6%
AQIB TALIB
75/1
30/1
6%
BRANDON MCMANUS
50/1
25/1
5%
OWEN DANIELS
40/1
15/1
5%
CHRIS HARRIS
100/1
50/1
4%
BRANDON MARSHALL
100/1
40/1
4%
VON MILLER
40/1
20/1
4%
LUKE KUECHLY
25/1
16/1
1%

MOST POPULAR PRO FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP 50 PROP BETS-UPDATED AS OF 2/4/16

Below are two charts showing the top 20 most popular prop bets for Pro Football Championship 50 by number of total tickets and total dollars wagered. The most popular prop bet by total dollars wagered is on the alternate point spread proposition for the Panthers +7.5.

Top 20 most popular #SB50 Prop bets of the 834 ways to bet the game (pre-game) by total number of tickets:

Top 20 Most Popular #SB50 Prop bets (# of tickets) @WILLIAMHILLUS 2/4/16
Will there be a successful 2pt Conversion? YES
Will there be a Safety? YES
Result of Opening Coin Toss? HEADS
Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS -17.5
Special Teams or Defensive Touchdown? YES
Will there be a miss Extra Point in Game? YES
Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS -14.5
Panthers Total Points Scored in First Half: OVER 13
Result of Opening Coin Toss? TAILS
Will the Opening Kickoff be a Touchback? NO
First Score of Game? FIELD GOAL/SAFETY
Will there be Overtime? YES
Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS -10.5
Will the Opening Kickoff be a Touchback? YES
Both Teams with a 33 yard or longer Field Goal? YES
Will Greg Olsen Score a Touchdown? YES
Will Cam Newton have a Rushing Touchdown? YES
First Offensive Play from Scrimmage? PASS PLAY
Score in First 6.5 minutes of Game? YES
Total Players to attempt a Pass? OVER 2.5




















Top 20 most popular #SB50 Prop bets of the 834 ways to bet the game (pre-game) by total dollars wagered:

Top 20 Most Popular #SB50 Props (% of total $’s) @WILLIAMHILLUS 2/4/16
Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS +7.5
Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS +14.5
Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS +3.5
Will there be a Safety? NO
Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS +10.5
Adjusted Game Total: TOTAL POINTS SCORED OVER 29.5
Will Cam Newton have a Rushing Touchdown? NO
Alternate Point Spread: BRONCOS +10.5
Will Broncos Score in every Quarter? NO
Wil Mike Tolbert Score a Touchdown? NO
Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS -17.5
Total Field Goals in Game? OVER 3.5
Broncos Player with 2 or more Touchdowns: NO
Total Interceptions in Game? OVER 1.5
Rushing Attempts for CJ Anderson: OVER 13.5
Successful 2pt Conversion? NO
Alternate Point Spread: BRONCOS +7.5
Rushing yards for Cam Newton: OVER 41.5
Will the Opening Kickoff be a Touchback? YES
Will Game be Tied after 0-0? NO




















Super Bowl 50 Prediction from Las Vegas

Can a case be made for the Broncos to win? Let's try.....
If you like Carolina to cover six points against the Broncos, we certainly can't fault you. They're good. Real good. As in the type of good that might have us remembering some of the great Super Bowl champs of the past the week prior to their eventual crowning moments. They've beaten teams by an average of almost 13 points a game, which has helped bettors cash against the spread in 13 of their 18 games.

What's not to like? They've got a quarterback in Cam Newton who accounted for 50 touchdowns this season, beating all but one of the teams he faced with a combination of both his arm and legs. His running ability has helped the team rush for over 100 yards in 31 straight games.

MORE: NFL live odds page | Public betting percentages

Newton rarely turns the ball over and the Broncos defense forces them often, which helped Carolina to an NFL-leading plus-20 turnover ratio during the regular season, and then tacked on a impressive plus-8 in two playoff games. You can't predict turnovers, but that theory is tested strongly with Carolina because they win that battle almost every week — 13 of 18 games.

The Panthers led the NFL in scoring, and took it up a notch higher during the playoffs by hanging 80 points against two of the better defenses in the league — Seattle, then Arizona, teams considered by most oddsmakers to be the top two rated in football.

How in the world can Denver stay in this game?

Read how here......TheLinemakers.com

Great two-way Super Bowl action at minus-6

The South point sports book moved Carolina to -5.5 Wednesday night.
Update - 2.3.16 - 4:00 p.m. ET

South Point sports book director Bert Osborne is feeling good about his books’ position so far with just four more nights of Super Bowl betting action to go before Denver and Carolina finally kickoff. He moved the Panthers from -5.5 to -6 last Thursday and likes the two-way action he’s been seeing at the number.

“We’re pretty much even at -6 and they’re (sharp Broncos money) starting to take +6 now because they know this is likely to be the best number they’re going to get. We’re kind of in a comfort zone right now where we’re not buried to one outcome like it started out. I‘d be happy to just grind out a win and not extend ourselves too far any way.”

That worst case scenario for the first eight days of Super Bowl action at the South Point was Carolina to cover and go OVER the total, but it‘s shifted dramatically.

“The best case scenario for us when factoring in straight bets on the sides, with both the spread and money-line, totals, teasers and parlays is Denver to win and go OVER,” said Osborne. “The Denver to UNDER risk is almost the same right now as Carolina to OVER.”

Osborne dropped the total from 46 down to 45.5 on Wednesday morning and then down to 45 a few hours later.

“I dropped the total down to 45 just because we’ve been getting mostly UNDER action, but the final factor in moving was the parlay correlation of Denver to UNDER which has really climbed over the past two days. But I’m sure I’ll be back at 46 soon when all those flat $100 and $50 OVER bets start coming in with the weekend crowd Friday night, so I’m not too worried about the total. It‘ll balance itself out.”

Read More Here.....Daily SB50 betting updates on VegasInsider.com


Video: Micah Roberts and Kenny White give their Super Bowl selection for TheLinemakers.com

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Super Bowl 50 Betting Updates from Las Vegas: Denver action showing

Sam's Town sports book is part of the Boyd Gaming group. Fun place!
Update - 2.1.16 - 5:00 p.m. ET

Things have settled in Las Vegas. There hasn't been much Super Bowl line movement the last couple of days with most sports books standing as they were on Friday. Six major sports books such as Caesars Palace, South Point, Station Casinos, Stratosphere and Golden Nugget have the Panthers at -6, with the others sitting at -5.5 -- some with added juice up to -120.

The only spread movement the last two days came Monday afternoon at Boyd Gaming properties who went back to -6 after being at -5.5 for about 45 minutes.

"We're starting to see more Denver action over the weekend to the point where we went back to -5.5, but then we immediately got Panthers money and went back to -6," said Boyd Gaming sports book director Bob Scucci. "We had a ticket count ratio of about 3-to-1 on Thursday, but the overall count has dropped down to 2-to-1."

People are definitely warming up to the idea of taking points with Denver.