Friday, February 5, 2016

Super Bowl 50 Prop Selections from Las Vegas

CG Technology sports book inside Legasse's Stadium at Palazzo.
Most Las Vegas sports books are offering more than 300 props for Super Bowl 50, so we thought we‘d offer opinions on a few of them that have short prices. Some of the choices are based on the belief that Denver will win a close, low scoring game, but others could go either way no matter the outcome.

There is nothing quite like the betting intensity that comes with watching the Super Bowl while having multiple wagers on everything that happens throughout the game. Betting on just the outcome of who will win is almost boring and rather ordinary. Make it truly a super experience and get in on some of the additional fun. So let's take a look:

MORE: Our Super Bowl pick on the total, against the spread

Cam Newton Rushing Yards: OVER 38.5 -115 (CG Technology)
He’s had 45 yards or more rushing in five of his last eight games and if the Broncos defense rattles him as much as we think they will, he’ll be more apt to try and do some things on his own to make something happen. In the 20-13 loss at Atlanta during Week 16, where he was kept on the sidelines for 35 minutes watching the Falcons ball control offense, he ran eight times for 45 yards. Even if we’re wrong with Denver being successful at ball control and the Panthers win, Newton is still likely to take off a few times to help solidify his MVP chances.

Cam Newton Rushing Attempts: OVER 8.5 -130 (CG Technology)
He went OVER 8.5 in 10 of his 18 games this season, including both playoff games. For much of the same reasons with the rushing yards, look for him to reach double figures here.

Props: QBs | TDs | Penalties | Weird, novelty | Multi-sport | Most-bet props

Will Cam Newton Score a Rushing Touchdown: YES +120 (Westgate SuperBook)
Even though we think Denver’s defense will give him fits, we do think he’ll find his way into the end zone, something he did 12 times on the ground during the regular season and playoffs. He‘s scored five rushing touchdowns in his past four games. Most of all, he loves the spotlight of scoring and an opportunity to do a Super Bowl dance of some kind, which he’s probably been choreographing for the last two weeks.

Read More Here....TheLinemakers.com

Thursday, February 4, 2016

Super Bowl 50 Prop Trends in Las Vegas

London based William Hill has 104 sports books in Nevada
CURRENT ODDS AND TRENDS FOR PRO FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP 50 MVP

Below is a chart showing the current trends at the 104 William Hill Nevada Sports Books and Mobile Sports app for the Pro Football Championship 50 game MVP as of February 4, 2016. This is the first year that Pro Football Championship 50 MVP wagering has been available in Nevada.

Top 10 Most Popular Pro Football Championship 50 MVP bets by total # of tickets to win the MVP award:
PLAYER NAME
Opening Odds (1/26/16)
Current Odds (2/4/16)
% of total # of tickets
CAM NEWTON
-120
-160
13%
LUKE KUECHLY
25/1
16/1
12%
VON MILLER
40/1
20/1
11%
PEYTON MANNING
11/2
3/1
8%
GREG OLSEN
20/1
22/1
5%
AQIB TALIB
75/1
30/1
5%
DEMARCUS WARE
75/1
30/1
5%
JONATHAN STEWART
15/1
22/1
4%
TED GINN JR
18/1
22/1
4%
JOSH NORMAN
50/1
28/1
4%
 Top 10 Most Popular Pro Football Championship 50 MVP bets by Total $’s Wagered to win the MVP award:
PLAYER NAME
Opening Odds (1/26/16)
Current Odds (2/4/16)
% of total Dollars wagered
CAM NEWTON
-120
-160
40%
PEYTON MANNING
11/2
3/1
8%
DEMARCUS WARE
75/1
30/1
6%
AQIB TALIB
75/1
30/1
6%
BRANDON MCMANUS
50/1
25/1
5%
OWEN DANIELS
40/1
15/1
5%
CHRIS HARRIS
100/1
50/1
4%
BRANDON MARSHALL
100/1
40/1
4%
VON MILLER
40/1
20/1
4%
LUKE KUECHLY
25/1
16/1
1%

MOST POPULAR PRO FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP 50 PROP BETS-UPDATED AS OF 2/4/16

Below are two charts showing the top 20 most popular prop bets for Pro Football Championship 50 by number of total tickets and total dollars wagered. The most popular prop bet by total dollars wagered is on the alternate point spread proposition for the Panthers +7.5.

Top 20 most popular #SB50 Prop bets of the 834 ways to bet the game (pre-game) by total number of tickets:

Top 20 Most Popular #SB50 Prop bets (# of tickets) @WILLIAMHILLUS 2/4/16
Will there be a successful 2pt Conversion? YES
Will there be a Safety? YES
Result of Opening Coin Toss? HEADS
Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS -17.5
Special Teams or Defensive Touchdown? YES
Will there be a miss Extra Point in Game? YES
Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS -14.5
Panthers Total Points Scored in First Half: OVER 13
Result of Opening Coin Toss? TAILS
Will the Opening Kickoff be a Touchback? NO
First Score of Game? FIELD GOAL/SAFETY
Will there be Overtime? YES
Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS -10.5
Will the Opening Kickoff be a Touchback? YES
Both Teams with a 33 yard or longer Field Goal? YES
Will Greg Olsen Score a Touchdown? YES
Will Cam Newton have a Rushing Touchdown? YES
First Offensive Play from Scrimmage? PASS PLAY
Score in First 6.5 minutes of Game? YES
Total Players to attempt a Pass? OVER 2.5




















Top 20 most popular #SB50 Prop bets of the 834 ways to bet the game (pre-game) by total dollars wagered:

Top 20 Most Popular #SB50 Props (% of total $’s) @WILLIAMHILLUS 2/4/16
Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS +7.5
Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS +14.5
Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS +3.5
Will there be a Safety? NO
Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS +10.5
Adjusted Game Total: TOTAL POINTS SCORED OVER 29.5
Will Cam Newton have a Rushing Touchdown? NO
Alternate Point Spread: BRONCOS +10.5
Will Broncos Score in every Quarter? NO
Wil Mike Tolbert Score a Touchdown? NO
Alternate Point Spread: PANTHERS -17.5
Total Field Goals in Game? OVER 3.5
Broncos Player with 2 or more Touchdowns: NO
Total Interceptions in Game? OVER 1.5
Rushing Attempts for CJ Anderson: OVER 13.5
Successful 2pt Conversion? NO
Alternate Point Spread: BRONCOS +7.5
Rushing yards for Cam Newton: OVER 41.5
Will the Opening Kickoff be a Touchback? YES
Will Game be Tied after 0-0? NO




















Super Bowl 50 Prediction from Las Vegas

Can a case be made for the Broncos to win? Let's try.....
If you like Carolina to cover six points against the Broncos, we certainly can't fault you. They're good. Real good. As in the type of good that might have us remembering some of the great Super Bowl champs of the past the week prior to their eventual crowning moments. They've beaten teams by an average of almost 13 points a game, which has helped bettors cash against the spread in 13 of their 18 games.

What's not to like? They've got a quarterback in Cam Newton who accounted for 50 touchdowns this season, beating all but one of the teams he faced with a combination of both his arm and legs. His running ability has helped the team rush for over 100 yards in 31 straight games.

MORE: NFL live odds page | Public betting percentages

Newton rarely turns the ball over and the Broncos defense forces them often, which helped Carolina to an NFL-leading plus-20 turnover ratio during the regular season, and then tacked on a impressive plus-8 in two playoff games. You can't predict turnovers, but that theory is tested strongly with Carolina because they win that battle almost every week — 13 of 18 games.

The Panthers led the NFL in scoring, and took it up a notch higher during the playoffs by hanging 80 points against two of the better defenses in the league — Seattle, then Arizona, teams considered by most oddsmakers to be the top two rated in football.

How in the world can Denver stay in this game?

Read how here......TheLinemakers.com

Great two-way Super Bowl action at minus-6

The South point sports book moved Carolina to -5.5 Wednesday night.
Update - 2.3.16 - 4:00 p.m. ET

South Point sports book director Bert Osborne is feeling good about his books’ position so far with just four more nights of Super Bowl betting action to go before Denver and Carolina finally kickoff. He moved the Panthers from -5.5 to -6 last Thursday and likes the two-way action he’s been seeing at the number.

“We’re pretty much even at -6 and they’re (sharp Broncos money) starting to take +6 now because they know this is likely to be the best number they’re going to get. We’re kind of in a comfort zone right now where we’re not buried to one outcome like it started out. I‘d be happy to just grind out a win and not extend ourselves too far any way.”

That worst case scenario for the first eight days of Super Bowl action at the South Point was Carolina to cover and go OVER the total, but it‘s shifted dramatically.

“The best case scenario for us when factoring in straight bets on the sides, with both the spread and money-line, totals, teasers and parlays is Denver to win and go OVER,” said Osborne. “The Denver to UNDER risk is almost the same right now as Carolina to OVER.”

Osborne dropped the total from 46 down to 45.5 on Wednesday morning and then down to 45 a few hours later.

“I dropped the total down to 45 just because we’ve been getting mostly UNDER action, but the final factor in moving was the parlay correlation of Denver to UNDER which has really climbed over the past two days. But I’m sure I’ll be back at 46 soon when all those flat $100 and $50 OVER bets start coming in with the weekend crowd Friday night, so I’m not too worried about the total. It‘ll balance itself out.”

Read More Here.....Daily SB50 betting updates on VegasInsider.com


Video: Micah Roberts and Kenny White give their Super Bowl selection for TheLinemakers.com

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Super Bowl 50 Betting Updates from Las Vegas: Denver action showing

Sam's Town sports book is part of the Boyd Gaming group. Fun place!
Update - 2.1.16 - 5:00 p.m. ET

Things have settled in Las Vegas. There hasn't been much Super Bowl line movement the last couple of days with most sports books standing as they were on Friday. Six major sports books such as Caesars Palace, South Point, Station Casinos, Stratosphere and Golden Nugget have the Panthers at -6, with the others sitting at -5.5 -- some with added juice up to -120.

The only spread movement the last two days came Monday afternoon at Boyd Gaming properties who went back to -6 after being at -5.5 for about 45 minutes.

"We're starting to see more Denver action over the weekend to the point where we went back to -5.5, but then we immediately got Panthers money and went back to -6," said Boyd Gaming sports book director Bob Scucci. "We had a ticket count ratio of about 3-to-1 on Thursday, but the overall count has dropped down to 2-to-1."

People are definitely warming up to the idea of taking points with Denver.

Saturday, January 30, 2016

Special Super Bowl 50 point-spread props from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

Super Bowl props help make the big game really BIG. 
SUPER BOWL 50 -- PROPOSITIONS
LEVI'S STADIUM -- SANTA CLARA, CA
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 2016

CAROLINA PANTHERS VS DENVER BRONCOS


ALTERNATE POINTSPREADS


PANTHERS -7.5 +130
BRONCOS +7.5 -150

PANTHERS -10.5 +190
BRONCOS +10.5 -220

PANTHERS -14.5 +320
BRONCOS +14.5 -380

PANTHERS -17.5 +425
BRONCOS +17.5 -550

PANTHERS -21.5 +525
BRONCOS +21.5 -750

PANTHERS +3.5 -450
BRONCOS -3.5 +375

PANTHERS +7.5 -700
BRONCOS -7.5 +500

PANTHERS +10.5 -1000
BRONCOS -10.5 +650

PANTHERS +14.5 -1400
BRONCOS -14.5 +800

PANTHERS +17.5 -1600
BRONCOS -17.5 +900

ALTERNATE TOTALS


PANTHERS/BRONCOS OVER 35.5 -450
PANTHERS/BRONCOS UNDER 35.5 +375

PANTHERS/BRONCOS OVER 38.5 -280
PANTHERS/BRONCOS UNDER 38.5 +240

PANTHERS/BRONCOS OVER 52.5 +250
PANTHERS/BRONCOS UNDER 52.5 -300

PANTHERS/BRONCOS OVER 59.5 +475
PANTHERS/BRONCOS UNDER 59.5 -650

Super Bowl 50 Betting Update from Las Vegas: Big Broncos wager taken

Where is the betting number going to roll?
Update - 1.30.16 - 9:05 p.m. ET

Wynn sports book director John Avello said earlier in the week that he was looking for a sign that Broncos money was out there and when he moved the Panthers from -5.5 to -6 on Friday, he got that sign with a Denver wager he described as a high six-figure wager. The wager pushed the Wynn book back to -5.5 on Saturday afternoon.

"There's still a long ways to go -- we'll take 80 percent of overall wagers on the game Saturday and Sunday, " said Avello. "We're still long on the Panthers right now, but it wouldn't be out of the ordinary to see our position completely change from the first week. It happened last year."
The public is still loving the Panthers, but the frenzied pace seen when the number was first posted has leveled off. Like Avello said, there is a long ways to go and things could change drastically. It's apparent that some large money is willing to show their hand with Denver and +6 is acceptable. Other sharp outfits are still hoping +6.5 or +7 shows.

A solid indicator that Broncos money is still out there waiting is the action the South Pointtook on the Broncos money-line that dropped them from +215 to +180 (Panthers now -125). At the time, +215 was the highest price available in Las Vegas. Several books still have the Broncos at +200.

If looking to play the Broncos, it's quite possible that +6 may be the best number you'll find. We'll keep following this story all the way till kickoff.

Read More Here......Daily Super Bowl 50 betting updates on VegasInsider.com

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Super Bowl money-line fair for a change, for now

Super Bowl bettors often switch choices when hearing payouts.
LAS VEGAS — In most Super Bowls, bettors rarely get true value with the underdogs taking them on the moneyline, because this game is more about the public and the once-a-year fringe bettors. Books protect themselves early on by setting the price lower based on a spread than you’ll see during the regular season or playoffs.

The books know what bets are coming and even if they get clipped off by sharps playing the cheap money-line favorite, that action still doesn‘t compare with all the $20, $50 and $100 wagers that compile up into one giant risk on the dog.

Many of the bettors coming to windows with their $100 don’t understand the point spread, but do want to maximize their dollar. Here’s a how a conversation usually goes down at this time of year between the ticket writer and novice bettor:

Bettor: “How much do I get if I bet the Panthers to win — no points?”
Teller: “With the money-line play, no points, just to win at -230, your $100 will win you $43.48, plus your $100 back.“
Bettor: “Wow, that’s not very good, what if I play the spread?”
Teller: “If you lay the -5.5 and the Panthers win by 6-points or more, you’ll win $90.90 plus your $100 back.”

Read More Here....TheLinemakers.com

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Large Super Bowl wager taken on Broncos at +5.5

Mirage sports book has taken two big Super Bowl wagers early on.
The VegasInsider.com Super Bowl 50 Betting Update will provide daily betting updates from Micah Roberts in Las Vegas on this year's NFL finale between Carolina and Denver, which is set for Sunday, Feb. 7, 2016.

Update - 1.27.16 - 2:25 p.m. ET

Add Caesars Palace, Station Casinos and the Stratosphere to the growing list of Las Vegas sports books that have Carolina -5.5 over the Broncos for next week’s Super Bowl. They took the plunge Wednesday morning. MGM Resorts and the South Point made their move on Tuesday.

“I’m legitimately at Carolina -5.5 and I may be going to -6 soon,” South Point sports book director Bert Osborne said, who opened Carolina -4 on Sunday night. “We’re getting lots of action on the Panthers at -5.5.“

Osborne also said his teaser liability with Carolina-to-OVER was growing by the minute. He has the Panthers money line at -215 with the Broncos at +190, which is the most attractive dog number in the city as of Wednesday afternoon. His total has been steady at 45.5 the past two days after being at 46.5 on Monday.

Over at the MGM Resorts sports book hub inside the Mirage, manager Jeff Stoneback said he and VP Jay Rood were just having a discussion about when they were going to make the move off -5.5, a dead number, and go to -6.

“Our ticket count at just -5.5 alone has the Panthers at a 4-to-1 ratio and the cash taken in is at 2-to-1,“ said Stoneback, who then answered a call from one of his other nine sports books across the strip. A big bet wager was being accepted. “We just took a six-figure bet on Denver at +5.5, so the cash ratio is far more slanted on Denver at 5.5 than what I had just said, maybe at 15-to-1 on Denver now.”

However, Stoneback kept the game at 5.5 for one big reason. “Last night we took a six-figure bet on the Panthers at -5.”

Those are the two biggest wagers the MGM books have taken so far.

Read More Here....Super Bowl updates from Las Vegas daily on VegasInsider.com

Friday, January 22, 2016

Cardinals-Panthers action dead, Patriots bet at 10-to-1 ratio

Bettors loving the Patriots this week despite inflated number.
LAS VEGAS -- When the AFC and NFC Championship Game lines were both posted with 3's in Las Vegas on Sunday, one game looked out of whack with a road favorite while the other looked solid. Many observers thought it would the Panthers side that would attract the most action, but that hasn't been the case.

"It's been a dead game for us," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne who has kept Carolina -3 all week.

Osborne said public parlay money has favored Carolina as expected, but the game he's been keeping his eye on the most is the Patriots -3 at Denver.

"I thought the game that we'd be moving first would be the Panthers, but the way the action is going so far I may have to go to -3.5 with the Patriots."

The number '3' is the most key number in the NFL, so it'll take some heavy one-sided action to move off the number, but Osborne can see it happening. "Right now, I'm about a 25 percent towards our threshold at the number before moving to 3.5."

Osborne says he takes about four times the limit at -3 than he does for regular numbers before moving off it. His chain of sports books are the only ones in the city that use flat numbers exclusively.

On Friday, the South Point was the only sports book in town with the Patriots at 3-flat. Those that like the Patriots know where to go so it might not be too long before Osborne hits his threshold forcing a number change.