|Dallas Keuchel has had a rough go of it lately, especially against Texas.|
Martin Perez (7-7, 4.22 ERA) doesn't like the road too much and Texas has gone 5-12 in their last 17 games overall, but I like what I saw out of Perez in his last start that helped me forget his miserable previous four starts. He allowed only one run to KC in seven innings. Texas has now won 10 of his past 13 starts.
The last time the Rangers (63-46) were in Texas in May, they swept. They won eight straight against the Astros until losing June 8. Overall, Texas is 9-1 against them in 2016. It's basically the differential between the Rangers being in first and the Astros 6.5 games back. One more note: the Rangers are 30-16 in the last 46 meetings at Minute Maid Park.
Houston has lost its last three games started by Dallas Keuchel (6-11, 4.92), including his last start at Detroit where he gave up seven runs. Houston (56-52) is 2-8 in their last 10 and and have lost its last three. Oh yeah, Keuchel has lost all three starts against Texas this year.
Let's go with the Rangers to win in a high scoring game. The top play here is Texas (+156) and a secondary play is on the OVER (8.5).