Thursday, June 30, 2016

Thursday MLB Bet of Day: Jays have lost last eight at home behind Dickey

Indians can tie franchise record with 13th straight win tonight.
LAS VEGAS -- We've got a couple streaks going in opposite directions when the Indians begin a four-game series tonight at Toronto. Cleveland (47-30, +10.8 units of profit) has won 12 straight and its last lost was when the Cavaliers were down 3-2 in the NBA Finals. Should they win tonight they'll tie a franchise record 13-game win streak set in 1951 and 1942. Another Indians win would also mean that the Blue Jays (43-37, -3.1) will have lost nine straight at home behind knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.

Despite the lengthy win streak by Cleveland, Toronto still comes in as the -135 favorite to win the series. Carlos Carrasco (3-2, 2.73 ERA) opens the series tonight against Dickey (5-8, 4.23) as a -115 favorite. On Friday, Marcus Stroman will face Josh Tomlin. Saturday will see Marco Estrada against Trevor Bauer and the finale on Sunday will have J.A. Happ against Corey Kluber.

During the 12-game win streak, Cleveland's starters have gone 9-0 with a 1.91 ERA and have been able to cruise in most of the games as the offense has outscored the opposition by a 75-25 combined score.

Carrasco's last start came Saturday at Detroit where he pitched a complete-game, 6-0 shutout. The Indians have won seven of his nine starts this season and he's allowed only seven runs in five road starts (1.95 ERA).

On the other side we have Dickey who the Blue Jays have lost 11 of 16 games behind with all five wins coming on the road, including his last start at Chicago where he gave up four runs in 5.1 innings, but beat the White Sox, 10-8. His home ERA is at a Rocky 5.36.

This is a big moment for Toronto who ended a 2-6 run by winning the past two days at Colorado, but between the Indians win streak where the starters have dominated and Carrasco being a major factor in two of those 12 wins, it's hard to find any reason to support Dickey and his poor home luck at home.

Let's go with the Indians to win again tonight and also take +115 to win the series.

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Tuesday MLB Bet of the Day: Greinke, Eickhoff square off again

Arizona is 12-4 behind Zack Greinke this season....all 4 losses at home.
LAS VEGAS -- There's no place like home, unless you're the Diamondbacks, who have posted a 13-26 mark at Chase Field, including last night's 8-0 lackluster loss to the Phillies. But tonight the odds are in Arizona's favor to buck the trend as Zack Greinke (10-3, 3.61 ERA) is a -180 favorite against Jerad Eickhoff (5-9, 3.36) in the second of a three-game set.

Arizona (36-43, -5.59 units of profit) had just just come off a 10-game road trip where they posted franchise best 7-3 record boosting them to a 23-17 road mark. Four of those wins came in a sweep at Philadelphia, including a 4-1 Greinke win 10 days ago against Eickhoff. It was Greinke's seventh straight win and in his next start Thursday at Coors Field, he got a no-decision in the Diamondbacks 8-7 win.

During Arizona's eight game win streak behind Greinke, he has a 2.18 ERA and opponents are hitting just .191 against him with a .224 on-base percentage. However, the home and away disparity exists with Greinke as well who is 5-3 with a 5.06 ERA at home and is 5-0 with a 1.85 ERA on the road. Arizona is 12-4 behind Greinke this season with all four losses coming at Chase Field.

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MLB Betting Notes: Rangers best profit margin club

Rangers were first team to 50 wins on the season.
When the Cleveland Cavaliers won the NBA Championship, it gave Major League Baseball center stage by itself in Las Vegas sportsbooks and what a first week it was as the feature attraction.

Several storylines have popped up to grip the attention of the most casual of fans, at least until pre-season football begins in August.

The Cubs, Nationals and Mets have all experienced some rough patches lately while the Indians, Rangers and Astros keep winning. The Rays have shown you count on betting against them nightly with an 11-game losing streak through Sunday and Clayton Kershaw finally lost a game after 10 straight Dodgers wins behind him.

Dead part of the betting calendar year? That’s absolute crazy talk, especially if you jump on the wagon with some of these teams rolling through streaks.

The best thing about betting baseball is the 10-cent splits – eight cents at Aliante – and true odds in parlay payouts. Football and basketball have 20-cent splits with a pointspread and use pay charts on parlays.

This is the time of the year that sportsbook directors hold their collective breaths with hopes of escaping with a small win until preseason football starts. It can be extremely volatile when popular teams keep winning together.

Fortunately for the books over the past week, some of those top teams kept large parlay payouts to a minimum because the teams kept losing regularly in a June swoon.

Last Sunday the Cubs had the best record in baseball (47-20) after sweeping the Pirates, but then they went into a season-worst, four-game losing streak, including getting swept at home by St. Louis, and eventually lost six of seven for the week.

In the process, the Rangers were in the middle of winning 10 of 12 games and their 49-27 record is now the best in baseball.

Texas has won 18 of 24 June games for a profit margin of +13 units and their +29.1 units on the season is 12.1 units better than the second most profitable team, San Francisco (+17).

What’s amazing about the Rangers is they’ve been crushing June with three of their starting pitchers on the disabled list. The other thing bettors can trust with Texas is that they’ve won their last nine games coming off a loss.

It’s one of the best situational trends going.

The other trend to follow has been just betting on the Indians to win, especially when they play Detroit. Following the weekend scalping of the Tigers at Comerica Park by a 22-8 combined score, the Indians have now gone 9-0 against the Tigers this season.

Sunday’s 9-3 win was also their ninth win in a row and made them 18-6 for the month to extend their lead over Kansas City to five games in the AL Central.

Read More Here....Gaming Today

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Las Vegas Sports Books Buried with Cavs Game 7 Win

The Cavaliers stopped by Las Vegas to party Sunday night after Game 7.
The rally cry for Cleveland fans over the past 52 years of trying to win a championship of any kind has been “We Believe.” There may have been no better proof of fans believing in the Cavaliers than what happened in Las Vegas sportsbooks Sunday night for Game 7 of the NBA Finals when they emphatically put their money on the counter.

The Cavaliers’ 93-89 win over the Warriors made most Las Vegas sportsbooks big losers on the day with a combination of payouts taking the Cavs +5, +150 on the moneyline and a variation of series prices with a high of 10-to-1 odds after Game 4 when the Cavs were down 3-1.

Despite the media constantly questioning LeBron James’ legacy following a Game 4 loss, the fans and bettors believed enough in the Cavs to make the books losers in Games 5, 6 and 7.

“It wasn’t a good day for us at all,” said MGM Resorts sportsbook hub manager Jeff Stoneback. “We had a bunch of house players take the Cavs (+5) with six figure wagers and then we had that big loss on the series price after Game 4.”

Last week Stoneback said after Game 4 that his books had taken over $100,000 in risk on the Cavs to win the series at 10-to-1 odds. Before Games 5 and 6, he tried to offer the lowest series price on the Warriors in town, but no one wanted them and kept betting the bad price on the Cavs.

No team had ever come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA Finals, but the Cavs fans believed and put their money where their hearts were and cashed big time Sunday night.

Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick said they escaped with a small win on Game 7 just because the game stayed UNDER (206) the total, but said they got “beat up pretty good on the series.”

CG Technology’s VP of risk management Jason Simbal said they lost on both the game and series. Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay said, “We needed Golden State in Game 7 for almost everything. It wasn’t a knockout punch, but it was a solid jab.”

The scene at the Mirage sportsbook prior to Game 7 was something that kind of shocked Stoneback.

“I’ve never seen a crowd so big for an NBA game, ever,” said Stoneback who has worked in Vegas books for 28 years. “It was standing room only, a massive crowd. We had every seat taken in the room an hour-and-half before the game. Never seen that before – all the bleachers along the side and couches were occupied hours before the game.”

Read More Here......Gaming Today

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Cavaliers find support for Series and Game 6

Mirage sports book in Las Vegas.
LAS VEGAS -- NBA Finals bettors have a lot to think about before wagering on Thursday's Game 6 at the Quicken Loans Center where do-or-die Cleveland is a 2.5-point favorite over Golden State at most Las Vegas sports books.

Can the Cavs duplicate the insanely efficient Game 6 performance where they won 112-97 to cut the Warriors lead to 3-2. Or do the Warriors step up with Draymond Green back in the lineup and win a Game 6 and an NBA Championship at Cleveland for the second consecutive year?

In Monday's game the Cavs played to the high level most saw when they began the playoffs on a 10-0 run. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving both scored 41-points in the runaway win becoming the only duo in NBA Finals to score more than 40 in a game.

They didn't seem to miss -- especially early on -- combining to make 33 of 54 shots while letting Kevin Love shoot only five times (2 pts in 33 mins). James and also chipped in with 18 boards and seven assists in a game he was obviously charged up for.

So what are bettors on the strip saying?

MGM Resorts sports book hub director Jeff Stoneback already heard people talking when he came into work Tuesday morning. "A regular bettor with us came up to me this morning saying 'I don't know who to play for the next game."

There's a feeling that nobody can beat the Cavs if Kyrie and LeBron do what they did in Game 5, but the same can be said for Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry. Which duo does the best? And does momentum carry over into Cleveland with a city that will be going absolutely wild as they hope to win its first pro sports championship since 1964. "We're still alive, we believe".

After the home team won and covered the first three games, the last two have been won by the road underdogs. Stoneback said bettors were on the Cavs in Game 6 and they were even taking +5.5 when there were +6 and +6.5s available around town. He said they were a small loser after getting late Warriors money to help balance the risk.

An area where the MGM books aren't balanced is the series price.

"We had lots of people playing the Cavs adjusted series price taking 10-to-1 prior to Game 5," said Stoneback.

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Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Westgate to pull 8% administrative fee from SuperContest money pool

Eight percent might not be enough for Westgate to break even on SuperContest
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook announced two weeks ago they would start accepting entries to its popular SuperContest on July 1.

Last week in a series of tweets sent out by the book, they announced the entry fee would remain at $1,500 but “due to rising costs, time and resources we have to dedicate to the event, there will be an 8% ad fee.”

The ad fee is for administrative costs associated with the SuperContest, the premier sports handicapping tournament in the world where contestants choose five NFL sides a week against the spread for 17 weeks. However, it wasn’t long before the SuperBook got a few tweets from the public showing its displeasure with the move, many of those who probably don’t even participate in the contest.

My immediate thought was an administrative fee was actually long overdue. In addition to the Westgate paying the bonus fees of up to $40,000 out of their own pockets, they have advertising fees (about $35,000 is my guess), and credit card fees (maybe $20,000?) have never been talked about.

Think around $90,000 right there in costs out the window in what is an annual loss-leader for the SuperBook. They also pay for the six free SuperContest entry fees given away during SuperContest weekend (Aug. 26-27 this year).

But why should they have to incur losses on something so wildly popular? Last season a record 1,727 people competed with the winner taking home $906,675 (35% of the pot). The SuperBook created a giant, but after it’s all over each season they should be able to at least say they broke even with the venture.

The SuperContest also doesn’t run on auto-pilot. They use thousands of hours of manpower from April through February to operate this thing, and not all from the book itself. It’s an encompassing project throughout the casino and involves services from Westgate departments like accounting, legal, marketing, security and I.T.

What’s the estimated labor cost? Is $85,000 too low an estimate? How about $125,000? It’s a chunky figure for a non-revenue generating venture.

Read More Here.....Gaming Today

Friday, June 3, 2016

Friday MLB Play of the Day: Giants at Cardinals

Johnny Cueto has +8.3 units of profit this season, second-best in MLB.
Line: Giants -108 Total: 7.5 (under -120)

LAS VEGAS -- Who is the best team in baseball? You might be inclined to say the Cubs based on their MLB-best 37-15 record and +2.6 margin of victory per game, but I'll take my chances in any debate with the Giants, who look like strong candidates to win their fourth straight World Series in an even numbered year (2010, 2012 and 2014).

A big part of the reason the Giants (34-22, +9.03 units of profit) look like good bet at 7-to-1 to win the World Series is because of Johnny Cueto (8-1, 2.31 ERA) who takes the mound tonight at St. Louis as a slight -108 favorite over Adam Wainwright (5-3, 5.71). San Francisco has won 10 of Cueto's 11 starts this season, including his last seven and all six of his road starts. In eight of his starts he's allowed two runs or less, and he's done it in his last five.

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Thursday, June 2, 2016

Royals-to-OVER parlay has cashed eight of last nine games

Eric Hosmer has has 12 RBIs during Royals' six-game win streak.
LAS VEGAS -- The Royals have an incredible streak currently going for side-to-total parlay bettors as they begin a four-game series at Cleveland tonight where the Indians are -170 favorites to win at least three of the games. In tonight's opener, Carlos Carrasco — fresh off the DL — is a -160 favorite over Yordano Ventura with a total set at 7.5-flat.

Kansas City (30-22, +8.01 units) has won six straight with home sweeps over the White Sox and Rays to take a two game lead in the AL Central, a division where the top four teams are separated by only five games. Cleveland (27-24, -2.31) has lost four of its past six games — all six went OVER, but have an impressive 14-7 record against AL Central teams.

The interesting part about the Royals run for bettors is that while winning eight of its last nine, all nine games went OVER the total. That's eight of the last nine games where the Royals-to-OVER parlay cashed. The team has hit a red-hot .358 over that span.

Read More with the free plays on KC/CLEV

2016 NBA Finals Game 1 Action Report from Las Vegas

Cavs took the Warriors to 6 games in 2015 Finals without Irving and Love.
LAS VEGAS -- Bettors have a dilemma on their hands for Game 1 of the NBA Finals tonight. Do they ride with a healthy Cavaliers team that won its first 10 playoff games, or do they they side with the suddenly hot Warriors, who won three straight to close out the Western Conference Finals after being down 3-1 to the Thunder, which included two embarrassing defeats.

With three full days of action across Las Vegas sports books, the public appears to be siding with the defending champs, but there's almost an equal mixture numbers available with the Warriors posted as -5.5 to 6-point favorites.

William Hill sports books opened the Warriors Monday night as 5.5-point favorites and the number stood still until Wednesday morning when they moved to -6, but the move wasn't necessarily based on action.

"We're dead even so far," William Hill's head oddsmaker Nick Bogdanvich said Thursday morning. "We're a little high on the OVER (208.5), but overall on the game we're balanced. The area we're buried on is the series price with everyone jumping on Cleveland. We have the lowest price with Golden State at -200 and no one is touching them."

Just as Bogdanovich was discussing the series action, he was miffed as he saw another wager light up the screen from one of his 105 locations across the state.

MORE: NBA live odds page

"Here comes another one. Another large wager on the Cavs to win the series and they're taking the worst price in town."

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