Friday, December 18, 2015

Does Steelers -7 seem too high against Broncos No. 1 defense?

What's the proper number on Steelers-Broncos game?
Last week the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Steelers (8-5) as 4.5-point home favorites over the Broncos (10-3) in their Early Week 15 lines suggesting they had Pittsburgh rated 1.5-points higher than the Broncos. Following the Week 14 games, that rating differential doubled.

“The Steelers would be -3 or -3.5 on a neutral field so -6 at Pittsburgh was the right number,” said SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay, who re-opened the game Sunday night at -6. “I actually think -5 is closer to being the right number. Minus-7 might be a little excessive.”

But that’s where his betting public forced the number. On Friday morning the SuperBook moved Pittsburgh from -6.5 to -7 EVEN while most of the city sits at -6.5.

“The Steelers rating has climbed just over the past week while Denver’s has dropped. The Broncos have a good defense, but its offense can’t run or protect the quarterback. They scored 12 last week and 17 the week before against two lousy defenses (Oakland, San Diego).”

Pittsburgh has the league’s No. 2 offense at 404 yards-per-game while Denver has the No. 1 ranked defense allowing only 272 yards per game, which is 35 yards less a game than No. 2 ranked Seattle.
Last week's game at Denver was a complete mystery. The Raiders, down 12-0 at halftime, ended up winning 15-12 with only 126 yards of total offense. The Broncos threw the ball 51 times and ran it only 21 times for 34 yards, an odd ratio for a team that led most of the game. And, Oakland's Khalil Mack sacked Broncos QB Brock Osweiler five times.

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