Friday, February 5, 2010
Super Bowl Notes Through Friday: Props and Betting Notes From Las Vegas
Trying to find a few props I feel most comfortable with was tough searching through the 350 props that the Las Vegas Hilton offered. However, I found a few I do like just based on what I have seen this season, not taking a shot at middles of some of the free money out on scalps.
The player I have been looking at is Joseph Addai and what I believe his role will be in the game. All season long, Addai has been just good enough and reliable enough to show that the Colts can run the ball a few times to try and keep the defenses honest by showing the run.
He didn’t have a 100 yard game all season. In fact, his high for the regular season was 79 yards in Week 13. His season-high including the postseason was 80 yards against the Jets in the AFC Title game.
In 12 of his 17 games played this season, Addai rushed for less than the posted total of 65 ½ at the Hilton. In seven of those instances, Addai rushed for less than 50 yards.
Another note to keep track of is that back-up Donald Brown is healthy and when Addai had his best rushing games of the season in Week 13 and 14, Brown was out.
Brown was an intricate part of the Colts offense before getting hurt in Week 7. Over the same span, Addai didn’t crack higher than 64 yards in any game.
Should Brown stay in the six carries range like he’s been the last few weeks, I still like the 'under' on most of Addai’s rushing props.
Another prop available is the longest rushing attempt by Addai, set at 12 ½ yards. This is a volatile prop that could go either way, such as the Colts being in a third and long situation with a draw gaining 14 yards, but still having to punt.
Addai’s longest run of the year was 21 yards. Five times Addai had a game with less than a 12-yard rushing attempt. I lean to the 'under' on this prop.
The one prop that I do like Addai to do well in is for him to score a touchdown. When the Colts get inside the 5-yard line, the ball usually goes to Addai and somehow he always comes through. He had 10 rushing touchdowns in 15 regular season games this season with an additional three receiving.
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