FREE NFL Week 4 Picks: Panthers to beat Bucs fifth straight time

Panthers usually handle Tampa Bay and should again on Sunday. 

Line: Carolina -3 (-120), Total: 40
Time: 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Panthers have had an easy go of it, getting off to a 3-0 start against teams with issues. By no means have they looked great, which is why they’re laying just a field goal at Tampa Bay this week. But they do just enough to get the job done, and that should be enough to beat the Bucs for the fifth straight time (3-1 ATS).

The past three meetings have stayed UNDER, and that looks to be the way to go here as well. Carolina has stayed UNDER in 10 of its past 12 against the NFC South, and the Bucs have stayed UNDER in 11 of their past 13 overall.

The plays are Panthers -3 and UNDER 40.

Predicted score: Panthers 20-10

More Free NFL Picks here from the Linemakers.com.......selections on 9 games

Updated 2015 NFL Division odds from the LV Westgate heading into Week 4

Cardinals scoring 42 ppg thus far make them seem for real.

2015-16 NFL DIVISION ODDS

NFC EAST DIVISION
COWBOYS 9-4
EAGLES EVEN
GIANTS 7-2
REDSKINS 10

NFC NORTH DIVISION 

PACKERS 1-12  
LIONS 30
VIKINGS 11-2
BEARS 300

NFC SOUTH DIVISION
PANTHERS 7-5
SAINTS 12
FALCONS 4-5
BUCS 15

NFC WEST DIVISION
SEAHAWKS 5-7
CARDINALS 3-2
RAMS 8
49ERS 35

AFC EAST DIVISION
PATRIOTS 1-5
DOLPHINS 15
BILLS 6
JETS 12

AFC NORTH DIVISION
STEELERS 5-2
RAVENS 9-2
BENGALS 5-8
BROWNS 30

AFC SOUTH DIVISION
COLTS 1-4
TEXANS 5
TITANS 9
JAGUARS 20

AFC WEST DIVISION
BRONCOS 4-11
CHIEFS 9-2
CHARGERS 7
RAIDERS 12

**IN CASE OF TIE--NFL TIEBREAKERS WILL DETERMINE DIVISION WINNER**
**TEAMS MUST PLAY 16 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR ACTION.

Cantor Gaming Post Spreads on First 16 Weeks of 2013 NFL Season

Rams should be improved this season

When the NFL first released their schedule two weeks ago, the LVH Super Book had week 1 spreads posted the next day. Cantor Gaming immediately started working on the spreads as well, but their task took a little more time because they had to create numbers on every game for the first 16 weeks. Last Thursday they completed the task and on Friday afternoon, their spreads were released for the public’s enjoyment.

Lou D’Amico started offering spreads on every week of the NFL season in 2005 when he was running the Plaza, and brought the popular attraction with him to Cantor Gaming in 2008 when he opened the M Resort race and sports book. The initial action is always small, but the talk is always large.

What these spreads do is give bettors a chance to argue with each other on what is a good or bad line throughout each of the weeks. When I went through this process myself, I found several teams to be rated too high with not enough respect given to others, while also not seeing as much of an adjusted variance on teams expected performance as the weeks went on.

Here’s a look at a few of the games that caught my attention the most where there looked to be a 1-point edge on what the game might be when that week finally plays:

Week 2: Denver at Giants +1: The spread doesn’t look too out of whack, maybe pick ‘em would have been better, but the Broncos travel and hype of the Manning brothers from the New York media have me thinking this will be a great spot for the Giants.

Week 3: Rams +4.5 at Dallas: The Cowboys only covered one home game last season and on paper, they still look to be the same team trying to overcome mediocrity led by Tony Romo. Of all the teams on Cantor’s list of odds, I found more value with the Rams games than any other. I like the direction they’re going in led by coach Jeff Fisher. Any team that can cover all their division games last season, playing in one of the toughest divisions, has got my attention.

Week 4: 49ers at Rams +4: Coach Fisher was able to beat the 49ers at home and tie them on the road last season, devising a strong game plan against Jim Harbaugh’s attack. This will be a pivotal game early for the Rams that might shape their season and the home crowd should be up for it.

Week 6: Colts +2.5 at Chargers (MNF): I’ve got the Chargers downgraded a little more than this, even though they made a positive coaching change. Phillip Rivers isn’t the same quarterback he was three years ago and they’re severely lacking in talent around him to make plays, especially on the offensive line. The Colts should have a let down from 2012 -- they played way over their heads, but they are the better team with the better QB here. If Rivers plays the same as he has the past two seasons, and the Chargers start out slow again, the Colts should be -1 by kickoff.

Week 7: Broncos at Colts +3.5 (SNF): The Peyton Manning tour continues with one epic game after another for him, probably none bigger than this one. Indy still loves him, but they’ve moved on. The environment for this game make taking over a field-goal a must.

Week 7: Vikings at Giants -3 (MNF): I think we’ll see the Vikings fall back quite a bit in 2013 and by the time this game occurs, we will likely be looking at Giants -6, especially since it‘s a Monday night game where everyone plays the favorite. The public will also have six weeks of watching Christian Ponder to help sway their opinion. It doesn’t mean the Giants will win, but just forecasting for value, there is no way -- unless Manning gets hurt -- that this game will be 3-flat by kickoff.

Week 8: Seahawks at Rams +4 (MNF): Another Rams home game against the NFC West elite and getting 4-points. It’s hard to pass up considering they split last season -- covering both, the Rams are improved, and they have all the confidence in the world in their system behind Fisher. The Monday night crowd will be a huge edge in this one, and if the Rams are as improved as I think they will be, you’ll be lucky to get +3 by kickoff. .

Week 10: Seahawks at Atlanta PK: The Falcons were -3 in the playoff win against the Seahawks last season, and not much has changed with the Falcons. They might even be better with an improved running game led by Steven Jackson. The home team deserves more respect here, maybe -1.5.

Week 12: Patriots -1.5 vs. Broncos (SNF): I expected the Patriots to be a field-goal in this one, so laying less than that at home against anyone is pure value. The Broncos will be very good this season, but the situation is little different for them coming into 2013. Bill Belichick at home against Manning has always been a good combination for Patriots success. When they met Oct. 7 last season, the Patriots were 6-point home favorites and won 31-21, the Broncos largest loss of the season.

Week 13: Broncos at Chiefs +4.5: After losing at New England, the Broncos would appear to have a cup cake on the schedule against the Chiefs, but I have a feeling Andy Reid will regain the Chiefs home edge they lost last season. Getting +3 or more was always value with the Chiefs at home, and I think Alex Smith will bring back that Arrowhead edge.

Week 13: Patriots PK at Houston: I saw enough between these two last season in two games to feel that not laying anything with the Patriots is sort of a gift. The Patriots beat the Texans 42-14 (-5.5) in the regular season and 41-28 (-9.5) in the playoffs. Maybe it will be different in Houston, but at pick ‘em, I like the Pats chances of covering.

Week 14: Seahawks at 49ers -2.5: This is one where the 49ers should be at least -3 at home, and by kickoff will likely be higher.

Week 15: Saints at Rams +1.5: At this stage on the season, the story on the Rams will be known. The Saints are getting all kinds of respect in all their spreads just because of Jay Payton returning, but aren’t being penalized in the number for the defense returning. The Rams will be favored here even if they’re sub .500.

Week 16: Steelers at Packers -3: I think by this time of the year, the ratings on these two teams will be drastically different with the Packers offering huge value at this price. This is basically saying the Packers and Steelers are equal with only home field separating the two squads, and I don’t find that to be true now, and especially not in week 16 at Lambeau Field. Laying a field goal with Green bay at home is a gift.

More fun will be able to be had within two weeks as they LVH Super Book, MGM Resorts and William Hill sports books are scheduled to release their NFL season win totals. Unlike the individual point spreads where the action through the bet windows is minimal, the season win totals have professional bettors lining up like a pack of hungry wolves waiting to pounce on any perceived edge with limit wagers.

Cantor Gaming's 16 weeks of spreads for 2013 NFL Season

Broncos-Patriots Most Bet Game of Week 5; Great two-way action

Sports Books will be busy all weekend with Broncos-Patriots action

By Micah Roberts
Sporting News

LAS VEGAS—When Cantor Gaming sports books in Las Vegas opened their early lines for each week of the 2012 NFL season back in May, the Week 5 matchup between the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots got plenty of attention from the betting public. Five months later, nothing has changed. It’s still one of the most eagerly anticipated games among bettors in this young season.

“The Broncos-Patriots game will be the most bet game of the week,” said Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert. “We’re seeing great two-way action on it so far, and it already has a larger amount written on it than what we usually see from big games at this stage for the big weekend push.”

Colbert astutely had the Patriots installed as 7-point favorites back in May, a number he re-posted when they opened betting on the game last Sunday night.

“We opened the game Patriots -7, took a few big Broncos bets at +7, and have been dealing -6.5 all week, which looks to be the right number. I don’t think we’ll see it move up or down. Both teams are public favorites, which should keep us pretty balanced right up until kickoff.”

The Linemakers: Free preview | Week 5 lines | Power Ratings | NFL news from Vegas

The excitement at the bet windows is attributed to Payton Manning and Tom Brady—who have set the gold standard over the last decade as to what an NFL quarterback should be—squaring off once again. Over their careers against each other, Brady has holds an 8-4 mark, including winning the first six against Manning. But Manning has had the most recent success, winning four of their past six meetings.

READ MORE HERE...

Say it ain't So, Papa Joe; Chevalier Passes

By Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

Papa Joe will be dearly missed

The sports world lost one of it’s all-stars Friday when sports talk radio host Armand Chevalier passed away at the age of 62. Chevalier, better known as Papa Joe, suffered a stroke in April that had paralyzed his right side. He was originally from Pittsburgh, but it was Las Vegas that he called home and established many lasting relationships.

His Sports Buffet radio show went national, but had a distinct Las Vegas flair to it as he invited callers to give them their picks for the week. His show was unlike any other where the callers were the show and he was the moderator. He despised the Yankees and Cowboys, yet did it a way that fans of those teams still loved him.

For over two decades Las Vegas sports fans were treated to this type of delicious radio. Callers became celebrities like “Bubba” with his lead pipe cinches or “Top Gun” from Florida who had his own intro music. They would give their picks and Papa Joe would grade them. It was next to impossible to get in on the show as the lines were always jammed.

I used to be a regular caller myself during the early 90’s and had a system of trying to get in that worked about half the time. Knowing that there was a five second broadcast delay, I would try to time when the on air call sounded like it was almost over and then make my call trying to beat the hundreds of others trying the same strategy to get on to the show with that open line.

His afternoon daily show was contagious and allowed for myself and thousands of others to vent frustrations with anything in sports with his “Bite Me Wednesday’s” edition. No matter how good or bad any of his caller's takes were, he would find the angle immediately and spin it in an instant to make it sound more interesting.

His show was a lot different from what we have on radio now where the hosts are the stars who rarely take phone calls, opting to talk about what they want to talk about. Papa Joe let the callers set the topics and let them be the stars, chiming in with his two cents in his own clever way usually with a good natured zing at the end of the conversation.

Papa Joe loved all his callers and wanted to meet them so he organized gatherings where all the callers could meet each other and Papa Joe himself. He had a weekly softball team that he invited listeners to show up where they got to see him pitch with his ‘79 striped Pirates box hat.

Chevalier also had a news letter that used to go out to thousands of listeners and in 1994, during the baseball strike, his presence in the sports world was never more acknowledged than a story ran by USA Today on the cover of their sports page. The photo on the cover had him draped with thousands of baseball cards from listeners supporting his grass roots effort of his protest of baseball for what would eventually be a lost season, something that not even world wars could do.

Current ESPN Las Vegas 1100am radio producer Clay Baker was one of those loyal fans who sent his baseball cards in while living in Lansing, Mich., but also had the privelidge of working with Papa Joe in Las Vegas from 2002 throgh 2008 as his producer.

"Rather than interview a player, Papa Joe was more interested in what the fans thought. On his show, the callers were priority," Baker said. "His fans were encouraged to roar and debate his topics, daily, and they never let him down. I'm grateful to have worked with Joe and his friendship was a blessing."

"Joe's first stint in Vegas was dealing dice and 21 at the Slots O'Fun, but working on the floor was short lived," said Baker, who then quotted Joe on the matter, 'After my first day, the Pit Boss told me: If you were ever hanged for being a craps dealer, it would be an injustice to the rope. Eventually, I was assigned to the 'Eye In The Sky' and that afforded me similar work at the Hilton and Four Queens.'

He was genuinely loved by everyone because he actually seemed to care about us. He was one of us. He would have a beer and discuss topics like regular guys do at a bar. It was that same type of comfortable approach that made him such a loved icon on air.

A few years later I ran into him while I was running a sports book and we had a good laugh about his early years on the radio and how I used to get in to the radio shows. When talking about the show and everyone in his radio world family, he glowed with the same pride he did when it was initially happening.

He had quite a few relationships with people all over town, but he especially was fascinated with the job of sports book directors, who he always called “Boss Bookies”. He was intrigued with how the operation worked; how and why numbers were moved along with what the “wise guys” were doing.

When talking about the wise guys on air, he would stretch out the pronunciation in a different hush-hush tone, “Wiiiizzze Guyyzz”, as if he was telling a secret and if it got out, someone might get whacked. I always chuckled every time the voice came out.

I was proud to have been invited as a regular guest on his shows and reflect fondly of my younger years trying to get on his shows as a caller, but I was more honored to have just been his friend.

Las Vegans, and everyone else who had the chance to know him, or hear him are going to miss him, but his legacy will not be forgotten. Not only did he have one of the most unique relationships with his callers, but he was also somewhat of a pioneer with syndicated sports radio shows. He set the pace and tempo of an industry that we know as common place today.

"Joe Chevalier fell in love with radio by chance and it changed the world forever," Baker said. "Joe eventually quits the casino business, does radio full time in Las Vegas, then took the nickname Papa, from the Bourbon street bar and soon he was a Vegas legend. Papa Joe never had to make a demo tape. Papa never typed up a resume for a radio gig, he was just the genuine article. The fans knew it and Papa Joe Chevalier became the first star of an industry that had no stars."

Very well said Clay Baker.

Thanks for all the memories Papa Joe, rest in peace!

Super Bowl XLV Betting Notes From Las Vegas; Good Strategy For Prop Betting

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Nice Party in Dallas for "The Big Game"

If you can’t be in Arlington for the actual Super Bowl, there is no better place to be than in Las Vegas. With a combination of all the party glitz New Years Eve offers mixed in with the passion of sports and Las Vegas’ favorite tradition, gambling, a trip to Vegas for the game is actually a little more entertaining -- and sometimes cheaper -- than being at the actual game.

While there are just over 100,000 people that have tickets for the game itself, Las Vegas opens it’s arms large for all with it’s sports books and parties all across town making the theme of the day louder and larger than any destination in the world. And even though the NFL won’t allow anyone in Las Vegas to actually use the trademarked term of “Super Bowl”, everyone just says “The Big Game” with a wink.

Sorry Dallas, everything is big in Texas, but with 300,000 people expected to be in town, the scoreboard shows Las Vegas as the real winner of being truly big for your event.

Strategizing Your Prop Plays
Upon coming to town, you have already got a preconceived notion of who you like. Depending on who that team is and how you figure the tempo to go, you have a great head start of what to play in your prop wagers.

Las Vegas Hilton Prop Sheet is 8 pages

Should you like the Steelers to win and shut down the Packers, obviously you play the Steelers to win -- either on the money-line or point spread -- and take a shot with the under. A parlay of the two may even be a good investment at a lower amount than your other bets.

You then have to analyze how you came to that conclusion. As you go on about the Steelers have the No. 1 total defense led by the league’s top run defense by a large margin, you come to the conclusion that the Packers won’t be able to run. Glancing through the sheets of prop pages, you find exactly the type of bet that coincides with your logic, the Packers James Starks under 50 ½ yards.

You then come to the conclusion that if the Packers can’t run, they’ll obviously have to throw which then takes you to betting over 34 ½ pass attempts by Aaron Rodgers, something Rodgers has done in three of the four losses he had while not getting hurt.

On the Pittsburgh side, you’re wondering about how they’ll get the win and you reflect back on the success they had over the year, in particular the games that the defense shined. Ben Roethlisberger’s passing yardage is hard to guage because it’s so extreme one way or another, but Mike Wallace and Rashard Mendenhall seem to be consistent key figures in the Steelers success.

Wallace has made big plays all season with seven of his 10 touchdowns coming at least 33 yards out, therefore you start salivating at the chance to bet over 23 ½ yards on Wallace’s longest reception and the +140 on “Yes”, Wallace to score a touchdown. You also get a little greedy with the odds and take a smaller wager on Wallace to score in the first half at +320.

Super Bowl Props Galore on the Hilton Boards

Believing that the Steelers will win, and will do so with the game staying closer to the under, you start believing that Mendenhall’s time consuming carries in the AFC Championship game against the Jets will be duplicated. In that game, he carried the ball 27 times for 121 yards. For the Super Bowl against the Packers, Mendenhall only has to get over 79 yards to win the bet.

Regardless of what scenario unfolds for the game whether you like it high scoring, low scoring, Packers or Steelers, stay correlated with your thoughts rather than just betting random props. Even though betting the first player to score can be fun sometimes, you lose all the edge due to the large house hold on the index.

Any prop that has more than two options should not even be looked at because what you are looking for the most calculated way to keep some kind of an edge on the afternoon with your opinion being the driving force.

By correlating your bets, you have a much better chance to win big on the day if correct. Why do you think the sports books don‘t let people parlay the propositions? It‘s because if one thing happens, there is a greater likelihood that certain other things will happen which gives all the value to the player.

I should note that one sports book, the Las Vegas Hilton, has a list of props that aren’t correlated in any fashion that they do allow parlays on, but it‘s a very short list among their volumes of pages.


Handle Not Expected to Break State Record
All Indications from sports books across the state is that this years Super Bowl handle will not break the record of $94.5 million set in 2006, but could beat the last two seasons, neither of which passed the $83 million mark. MGM Resorts Race and Sports Book Director Jay Rood said he thought $88 million could be achievable.

Record handle not expected for Nevada books

Rood also believes that despite seeing larger action thus far on the Packers that his books likely won’t go to minus-3 stating that Steelers money should start coming in helping to balance out the action that has already been bet.

Bettors with large Packers money have most likely already bet for fear of not getting -2 ½ while the Steelers backers are all waiting for +3. Some of the traditional “Square” sports books off-shore have gone to +3 (Even or +105) on the game, but most of them rarely take large sharp action so it isn’t quite the same indicator that some of the Las Vegas books are. As soon as Stations, MGM Resorts and Wynn all start sliding back to 2 ½-flat, the flood gates should open with Pittsburgh money wanting to get at least +2 or higher.

About 35% of the overall Super Bowl action will occur on Friday and Saturday, with nearly 45% of all the action coming Sunday from 12:01 am to kickoff. Among that huge percentage, I would expect a large portion of it to be Steelers money who have been waiting for their optimum time to get value. That's just speculation on my behalf, because I've been wrong before, such as 2003 when the Raiders money never came.

Center of Attention
The last team we saw a team play in the Super Bowl without their starting center was in 2003 when the Raiders’ Barrett Robbins went missing on what we later found out was a drinking binge in Tijuana mixed in with psychological issues. Tampa Bay money flooded in simultaneously with news and the Raiders ended up losing 48-21.

Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey has been -- kind of -- ruled out of the Super Bowl and while the point-spread won’t be adjusted, you have to feel that the anchor of the offensive line has to be worth something. Between all the blocking schemes in their power running game, the loss of Pouncey is might affect the team more than we think.

My Favorite Prop

Blake & LeBron pts vs Super Bowl

The MGM resorts sports books have a great prop up asking who will have more, Lebron James and Blake Griffin’s points in their Sunday game against each other or the total points scored in the Super Bowl. James and Griffin are the -4 ½ favorite. Based on their season averages, the number is correct. However, based on their averages in the last 30 days, James and Griffin present great value because their combined average is eight points higher than their season average which gives the bettor an edge for this prop.

I like the game to over 44 ½, but there is too much value in betting with Griffin and James to pass up. I would fully expected both players to surpass their 30 day average as each will look to outshine the other.

Who Do I Think Will Win?
I’ve heard just about every angle for the game from a few sharps and lots of public opinion, and respect them all, but surprisingly, I haven’t wavered too much from my initial thoughts where I thought the game would be won by the Steelers 27-23. I still like the Steelers to win, but I’m thinking more points will be scored.

Not only is it hard for me to get the Steelers 37-36 win over the Packers game out of my head from 2009, but it’s also hard to forget just how good Rodgers is on fast tracks under the roof. Going all the way back to Packers loss at Arizona in the playoffs where he had to 423 yards, to this year where he threw for over 300 yards at Atlanta twice and in Minnesota where he threw for 301 yards, I just think he’ll be able to do his thing well, even against the Steelers top ranked defense.

As for the Steelers, I love how they bend, but they rarely break. All season long they have been battle tested, not to mention many in this group having won two Super Bowls. I think they’re expectations of winning and experience in being able to follow through in tough times will set them apart from Green Bay in a close, but very exciting game.

I’ve bet OVER 44 ½ as my top play, with the Steelers money-line at +125 and Steelers +2 ½ (+105) each for just a shade less.

Final Score: Steelers 31, Packers 27

Pro Football Notes From Las Vegas Heading Into Final Week of Pre-Season

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

We head into the final week of pre-season where bettors should play with extreme caution as most of the starters are expected to play only a few series, if at all, in what will be of a final audition for the final 75 players on each roster. 22 of those players will be cut and this is their last chance to make an impression on their coaching staff.

The Las Vegas sports books have been loving the pre-season because of all the uncertainties involved in every game. The low spreads on every game have enticed much of the small money on parlays to include the prominent teams as if this were the regular season and the line offered value as was the case with the Patriots home game against St. Louis last week where the Rams won as a short dog.

Although the big pay-day and with large handle for the sports books comes with the regular season, the consistent win with little risk during pre-season has been a nice relief for the books in August after dredging through a month and a half of only baseball where the daily win-loss is a crap shoot.

If looking for any type of trend for the final week of pre-season, you’ll be hard pressed to find a good one. Last year the favorites went 8-8 in the final week with the only trend standing out being the home underdogs going 2-0. Knowing that the second and third stringers are going to get much of the work, the quarterbacks that have looked the best throughout training camp and pre-season look to be the way to go. Cleveland with Seneca Wallace running the show shouldn’t disappoint, same with Marc Bulger in Baltimore. Conversely, look to pick on teams where the back-up has looked bad like Brady Quinn in Denver who can’t seem to find any confidence or rhythm making Eric Mangini looking like man-genius again for dumping Quinn in Cleveland.

Speaking of Cleveland and Mangini, I’m pleasantly surprised about the play of Jake Delhomme during the pre-season. We were all so down on him the last two seasons in Carolina with his bundles of interceptions that took a good Panthers team out of many games, but Delhomme has been the perfect example of just how important experience is. He doesn’t have the strongest arm or the swiftest feet, but what he lacks there he makes up for in smarts. His ability to read what opposing defenses are throwing at him and audible appropriately along the way should make Cleveland much better than last year; that, along with a much improved offensive line look to have the Browns solid contenders to go OVER the 5 ½ season win total posted in the sports books.

Through three pre-season games, Delhomme has completed 79% of his passes, two touchdowns, no interceptions and a QB rating of 110.5. Maybe more importantly through the games is that he has been sacked only once in 48 pass attempts. He’s got a nice back in Jerome Harrison to hand the ball off to, a nice bailout over the middle in former Patriots tight-end Ben Watson and the team has also featured the explosive Josh Cribbs more prominently in their first string offensive schemes. It also looks like the player the Browns got for Quinn from the Broncos, running-back Peyton Hillis, is going to be a nice third-down and goal line back that Delhomme has confidence in during passing situations.

The Browns have two winnable games right out of the gate to kick the season off as 2 ½-point underdogs at Tampa Bay and then a home game against the Chiefs where they‘ll be favored. They could conceivably be 2-0 by the time they start their tough division battles with Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh -- teams they combined to go 1-5 against last year. It may not yet be playoff time for the Browns, but there should be some good times in the Dawg Pound as their beloved team actually competes offensively with their opponents this season.

Washington Hurt-Skins
Donovan McNabb will not be playing this Thursday against the Cardinals in the Redskins final pre-season game and could possibly miss the opener against Dallas. Because of coach Mike Shanahan’s uncertainty over whether McNabb will be ready for the opener, he’s sitting back-up Rex Grossman out for the pre-season finale as well to endure that he’s have one healthy quarterback for Cowboys. John Beck and Richard Bartel will get all the snaps against the Cardinals.

Bradford Passes First Test as Starter
It’s only pre-season, and it was only against the lowly Patriots defense, but Sam Bradford put all his tools on display that made him the first overall draft pick during the Rams 36-35 win at Foxboro. He was sharp and precise giving everyone a look at what may be possible in the near future for the Rams.  

No O-Line in Big D
Maybe we shouldn’t get too excited, but the folks in Cowboy-land have got to feel a little worried about their offensive line woes during pre-season. Tony Romo has only been sacked five times in their four pre-season games, but seems to be pressured every time he goes back to pass resulting in hard knock downs. Someone has to light a fire under this team if they intend to play at home in the Super Bowl like many experts believe, but the Cowboys have the unfortunate disposition of having a quarterback and coach that don’t know how to light that fire.


Michael Jordan’s Underage Son Parties in Las Vegas 

Marcus Jordan’s bragging on Twitter last week about losing $50,000 at the Clubs and Lounges within a Las Vegas casino would have been just that -- simple bragging by a trust-fund kid, but when the fact that Marcus is only 20 years old and he’s tweeting pictures of himself inside these places that are only for those 21 over, then it becomes a problem.

The problem won’t affect the Jordan kid at all and it won‘t affect the relationship Michael Jordan has with the Vegas mega-resort company since he’s a high level VIP. Marcus may get some kind of stern talk from his father or maybe a little lesson on being discreet from his Central Florida basketball coach, but even that is likely to be minimal since it was Michael Jordan and Nike who paid for the school uniforms. The kid will likely be attempting to do the same thing again at some club, somewhere, until he eventually becomes of legal age.

The real problem will stem from the Nevada Gaming Control Board who will be investigating the situation where the casino will probably face fines, which will ultimately lead to more scrutiny among all areas of Las Vegas gaming because this matter has a higher profile case than the regular underage guy caught playing nickel machines.

So when you walk into a sports book as a 30 year old who looks closer to 40 than 20, don’t be surprised to be carded by the teller just as a precaution mandated by the casino. You better believe the NGCB will be proactive on the matter and have a few sting operations to incriminate others. What a perfect weekend for them to find tellers not carding either, the first week of the college and pro football seasons, one of the two busiest weeks of the year.

Realistically, if a 20 year old kid can go fight in America’s wars there should be no reason they can’t choose on their own to drink or gamble, but in Nevada, a rule is a rule, and is something to be abided by, and enforced by everyone who works within those casino walls.

Broncos 1st Round Draft Picks, Thomas and Tebow, Miss Second Straight Day of Camp

by Mike Chambers
Denver Post

Unsigned first-round draft picks Demaryius Thomas and Tim Tebow missed their second consecutive workouts at the Broncos' training camp this morning.

Without a contract, Thomas and Tebow cannot participate in training camp. The rookie portion of camp continues this afternoon and ends Friday morning. Thomas and Tebow won't be considered holdouts until training camp officially begins Sunday.
Thomas, a wide receiver from Georgia Tech, was selected No. 22 overall, three spots ahead of Tebow, the popular Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback from Florida.

"Nothing to report," Denver coach Josh McDaniels said of negotiations with Thomas and Tebow and their agents. "We're still working away at it."

McDaniels said he spoke to both players Tuesday at the team complex, and he wouldn't be surprised to see them again this afternoon, and under contract.

"I think they'll always be a chance," McDaniels said of completing the deals today. "Hopefully it's closer than not close, and as soon as we can tie the knot we'll get them over here, run the conditioning tests and do all that stuff. Like I said (Wednesday), we're working on it as much as we can and (trying) to get them here as quickly as possible."

Mike Chambers: 303-954-1357 or mchambers@denverpost.com

Favre Still Playing Games, But Not on Vikings Practice Field

By Jon Saraceno, USA TODAY

Brett Favre believed it was over — finally — six months ago.

No more wondering.

No more offseason waffling.

No more skewering from the pundits.

Yes, the old, gray Viking was tired of being on the horns of a dilemma.

"I can remember walking off that podium with (wife) Deanna and my family thinking, 'I'm done,' " the Minnesota quarterback tells USA TODAY. "I mean, my heart … it was broken."

The New Orleans Saints had just administered a physical and psychological beating to the NFL's all-time passing leader who refused to submit. The Vikings' crushing 31-28 overtime defeat in the NFC championship game, where Favre whipped an interception in the closing seconds of regulation, left him with a swollen ankle and a severe thigh bruise the color of eggplant.

"People can talk about the ankle and my thigh and all that stuff, but those will mend. I just said, 'I can't take this. It's just too hard to digest."

Read More Here on the Continuing Favre Saga

Owens Finally Finds a Team, Joins Ochocinco and Bengals

Get your popcorn ready, Cincinnati: Terrell Owens is coming to town.

Owens, the outspoken wide receiver and reality TV star, agreed to a one-year contract with the Bengals, a team source told NFL Network insider Michael Lombardi on Tuesday.

NFL Network insider Jason La Canfora confirmed that Owens will be paid $2 million in base salary and could earn an additional $2 million in incentives. Owens received $6.5 million from the Buffalo Bills last season.

The news thrilled friend and new Bengals teammate Chad Ochocinco, who had lobbied the team on Owens' behalf. Ochocinco wrote on Twitter: "Terrell Owens is officially a Cincinnati Bengals, Cincy let's welcome him with open arms, it's on now!" He later added that he and Owens are "like batman n robin, siskel n ebert, ying n yang, bonnie n clyde but you're bonnie though."

Owens was much less theatrical in his lone Twitter post, writing: "Hoping 2 b a Bengal w/in the 24hrs!!"

According to The Cincinnati Enquirer, Owens will not sign his contract until Thursday, when the Bengals hold their first training-camp practice in Georgetown, Ky. The newspaper also reported that Owens isn't expected to attend the 9 a.m. practice that day, but he likely will show up for the 7 p.m. session.

Owens took the Bengals' deal after the St. Louis Rams decided not to make an offer.

Read More Here...

The Orgin of the Las Vegas Sports Book Super Bowl Prop Bet

by Micah Roberts

Las Vegas Review-Journal

The end of a long NFL season is prime time for value shoppers at Las Vegas sports books. Some of the year's best betting opportunities can be found by sifting through the hundreds of Super Bowl propositions offered by the books.


The Indianapolis Colts are favored by 5 points over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, and soon we'll find out if Colts quarterback Peyton Manning wins his second championship. But another game has already kicked off for many bettors who are just as serious about winning.

The props bets have been on the board for about 10 days, and the key is finding the edge, because the books are more vulnerable than ever at this time of the year.

There is no true comparison to any other sport in the value offered this week.

A normal Saturday college basketball menu is comparable only because there are so many games. With more than 100 games on one day, and only two days to update ratings for more than 200 teams, there are always bound to be five or six faulty lines. But usually it takes one of the sharp betting groups to ferret out the mistakes.

The telling sign that a sports book is aware of its exposure is the betting limits placed on the general public. The most solid lines are offered with the highest limits -- such as the standard NFL line, the most sound line in the world. The areas that are open to more severe liability -- meaning the books don't always win -- are always kept at minimal limits.

The lowest per-game limits offered by most books are totals, such as college football and basketball, which are generally offered at a range of $500 to $1,000. Totals are statistically the lowest hold percentage most books have in their category analysis breakdown.

The Super Bowl will generate thousands of dollars more on each side of a proposition bet than any college total, but the limit for each prop stays in the same range because the books are in a vulnerable situation by extending the betting menu to such extremes.

So why would a bookmaker, whose mandate is to limit risk and liability and protect company funds, offer so many options that could offer the house less than maximum protection?

Basically, it's all about image, respectability and publicity of a property brand name or theme.

The last thing a Las Vegas sports book wants is a reputation for having the poorest selection of Super Bowl props in the city. This is a book's time to shine and show there is no need to go anywhere else -- everything you want is right here.

Read More Here.....

Mike T's Super Bowl Picks: Winners all Season and Looking to Close a Winner

by Mike T.

It comes down to this. The two best teams all year are now finally going to face off in what should be an epic shoot out. With all the money coming on the Colts for the first 10 days or so the Saints money is now coming in. So, if you liked the Saints you probably should have taken them 2 or 3 days ago when you could have gotten them at 5.5 or even 6. If you like the Colts you may want to wait close to game time where you might see 4 again.

Stats. Stats. Stats. There is a statistic or a trend for just about everything you can think of in order to decide which side you want to take. Saints 6-1-1 in their last 8 on grass, Colts 9-1-1 in their last 11 on grass. Both teams started 13-0, both teams were 7-1 on the road. The list goes on and on and on. In the end there is something or a few things that seems to stick out the most and will probably be the deciding factor in which way you go. I have mine and here they are.

The first thing I thought just like most people did is that the Colts looked really impressive in their wins over the Ravens and Jets while The Saints had to go to overtime to beat the Vikes. It made me wonder what the line would be right after the NFC conference game was over. Not what it should be but what it would be. Considering public's perception and memory I figured the Colts would be 3 point favorites and it wouldn't move much. After a couple days seeing the money pouring in on the Colts at almost 3-1 I started (again) thinking what the line should be.

When looking at these two teams over the entire season and not just the last game or two there is no doubt in my mind that this game should be a pick'em. Nothing more, nothing less. Therefore, getting the Saints at anything above 3 points is huge value on a neutral field.

Now anyone who's followed my picks all year has noticed that I like to take dogs in good spots so it's only fitting that I end the year with a dog. I guess this is the point where I have to throw out some stat or trend to back up my selection. There are two that I like best. The first is the Saints defense was 2nd overall this year with 39 turnovers and a +11 ratio while the Colts were just +2. The second stat is the Colts were 30th in the league on 3rd down defense. Now some say they play a bend but don't break style and that's why they give up a lot of 1st downs. That may be true but the Saints will get in the endzone often if the Colts play that style of D this Sunday.

I like this one to be a classic shoot out with the Saints winning the turnover battle and ultimately the game.

Saints 42 Colts 38

I also took a few props...
I have Brees to score the 1st TD at 18-1
I have the Saints to score exactly 42 points at 40-1
and the Saints to score exactly 48 and 49 points ( two bets) both at 80-1

I loved under 8 punts for the game when it opened and it was +110 but when I got there it was -190.
I also missed out on over 76 total points at 16-1 it was 4-1 when I got to the window. Oh well.

WHO DAT!

Super Bowl Notes Through Friday: Props and Betting Notes From Las Vegas

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Trying to find a few props I feel most comfortable with was tough searching through the 350 props that the Las Vegas Hilton offered. However, I found a few I do like just based on what I have seen this season, not taking a shot at middles of some of the free money out on scalps.


The player I have been looking at is Joseph Addai and what I believe his role will be in the game. All season long, Addai has been just good enough and reliable enough to show that the Colts can run the ball a few times to try and keep the defenses honest by showing the run.

He didn’t have a 100 yard game all season. In fact, his high for the regular season was 79 yards in Week 13. His season-high including the postseason was 80 yards against the Jets in the AFC Title game.

In 12 of his 17 games played this season, Addai rushed for less than the posted total of 65 ½ at the Hilton. In seven of those instances, Addai rushed for less than 50 yards.

Another note to keep track of is that back-up Donald Brown is healthy and when Addai had his best rushing games of the season in Week 13 and 14, Brown was out.

Brown was an intricate part of the Colts offense before getting hurt in Week 7. Over the same span, Addai didn’t crack higher than 64 yards in any game.

I would expect to see Brown be more of impact for the Colts Sunday and give the Saints a look the Colts haven’t shown for a few months. If Brown does see more action as I expect, the Addai prop numbers on the 'under' will all come in easily.

Should Brown stay in the six carries range like he’s been the last few weeks, I still like the 'under' on most of Addai’s rushing props.

Another prop available is the longest rushing attempt by Addai, set at 12 ½ yards. This is a volatile prop that could go either way, such as the Colts being in a third and long situation with a draw gaining 14 yards, but still having to punt.

Addai’s longest run of the year was 21 yards. Five times Addai had a game with less than a 12-yard rushing attempt. I lean to the 'under' on this prop.

The one prop that I do like Addai to do well in is for him to score a touchdown. When the Colts get inside the 5-yard line, the ball usually goes to Addai and somehow he always comes through. He had 10 rushing touchdowns in 15 regular season games this season with an additional three receiving.

Read More Here....

Super Bowl Notes From Las Vegas: Action Slow Through Thursday

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

This years Nevada Super Bowl betting handle will likely not pass $94.5 million and may be in danger of even equaling last seasons Steelers-Cardinals match-up which brought in $84.5 million through state sports book.


“We know it’s going to get pretty busy Saturday and Sunday,’ said South Point’s Sports Book Director Bert Osborne, “but right now (through 10 days up on the board) it’s been pretty quiet.”

Reports from many of the Sportsbooks have been similar, but most admit that they don’t keep a daily log of betting on the game throughout the two week period. They just know the bulk of their action will come on game day and the day prior.

“There could be something into the fact that there isn’t a big underdog like most years which really seems to stir up betting interest early with the people who feel they have to get it now or they’ll lose value,” says South Point’s Sports Book Director Bert Osborne.

The all-time record betting handle for the Nevada Super Bowl handle came in 2006 with the Steelers and Seahawks squared off with the Steelers a 4-point favorite. However, that year was right in the middle of the Las Vegas Boom where everyone was making tons of cash in all aspects of whatever business they were in.

If you worked in the casino, the tips were larger. If you were an executive, the bonus’ were larger. If in construction, there was tons of work because everyone was building. Real estate? The sales were through the roof. Regular folks were making hundreds of thousands of dollars by just flipping houses.

Read More Here....

Super Bowl-NASCAR Prop: What will be Higher, 1st Half Total or Winning Car Number

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book posted a Super Bowl proposition involving the winning car number in the race with the first half total of Super Bowl.


The posted number for the first half is 28 points. The Super Bowl eventual first half total between both teams is favored to have the higher number as a 3.5-point favorite over the NASCAR winner‘s car number.

This looks like a a good bet on the Super Bowl total even though there is a large variable number involved with the possibilities that car No. 48 driven by Jimmie Johnson or No. 88 driven by Dale Earnhardt Jr have a good shot at winning in Saturday’s race.

However, there looks to be way more upside in looking at the candidates to win the shootout who have car numbers ranging from No. 1 to 24, beginning with the likely winners of either No. 14 Tony Stewart or No. 18 Kyle Busch.


Another bonus in this proposition is bettors taking the Super Bowl side with a higher number also get No. 9 Kasey Kahne who was fastest in the final practice session, No. 11 Denny Hamlin, No. 1 Jamie McMurray, No. 2 Kurt Busch, No. 5 Mark Martin, No. 16 Greg Biffle, No. 17 Matt Kenseth, No. 20 Joey Logano, and No. 24 Jeff Gordon.

There are only 24 drivers racing and all but three of the top restrictor plate racers are driving with cars under No. 24 or less which makes this highly advantageous based on the offered total of the first half.

It’s quite possible that the Super Bowl could score far less points than expected in the first half, but having trying to beat a likely range of 1 through 18 makes it look pretty juicy by taking the Super Bowl side.

Las Vegas Hilton Posts Kardashian Super Bowl Prop: Reggie Bush vs Lamar Odom

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book crew has done it again by creating one of the more interesting cross-over Super Bowl props of the season.


Much like the Super Bowl commercials, we in Las Vegas sit anxiously awaiting who will have the most clever prop during the two week break until the big game is finally played, and generally it’s the Hilton who leads the way.

The Hilton’s Executive Director of Race and Sports, Jay Kornegay, was sitting in his office Wednesday taking calls from all over the world from various media outlets when he got an interesting call. On the other line, TMZ.com, the entertainment gossip page and TV show.

They called to see if they’re were any juicy entertaining props they could discuss, and then offered a prop suggestion of their own for Kornegay to use, “Who will score more on Super Bowl Weekend, Lamar Odom or Reggie Bush.“

The angle has a nice Kardashian sister twist and makes for an interesting news story for the gossip page to utilize Sports biggest game with the entertainment world and pop culture; absolutely perfect for their show putting the two Kardashian sister‘s men against each other.

Kornegay and his staff quickly found a way to put statistics from Odom’s game on Saturday at Portland against Bush’s rushing yards in the Super Bowl so it’s a fairly even number. They finally came up with “Who will have more, Odom’s points, rebounds, and assists combined against Bush’s rushing yards.”

“It’s not unusual for us to get requests like that,” says Kornegay, “We get several a year from guests that we try to accommodate with a fair number and then offer it to everyone.”

The Hilton crew has been the industry leader in Las Vegas for Super Bowl propositions for the last decade. The crew came over from the Imperial Palace where they were the industry leader there as well.

Their much anticipated props have been on the betting board since Tuesday and their much anticipated 15 page sheet will be available to the public on Friday.

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Lakers/Blazers--February 6, 2010) Prop closes at 7:00 pm Pacific Time
LAMAR ODOM (LAL) POINTS+REBOUNDS+ASSISTS +0.5 -110
REGGIE BUSH (NO) RUSHING YARDS -0.5 -110

Mike T's AFC/NFC Championship Picks: Saints Go Marching On - Teaser Pleaser

by Mike T.

I had a very average week in the divisional round going 3-3 putting me at 7-4 for the playoffs and 39-23 for the season. All season long I had three games to chose from a list of sixteen. During the playoffs I felt I should have an opinion on every game and even some totals. It's much harder to try and have an opinion on every game instead of just the ones you like. The only game I really loved last week was the Vikings and I wound up doing OK since I got even more Vikes early Sunday morning. This week there is one side that I like and one I just can't get a handle on. I did play both totals though so I just have three picks to make.


Jets at Colts over 40
This is the game I can't get a grip on. This game opened at Colts -7 and is now 8.5 or even 9 at some places. I don't like laying more than 7 and I don't like that it's almost 2-1 public money. Normally because of those two reasons I'd be all over the Jets but rookie QBs don't have much success in conference championship games. I do like this game to go over. I don't think the Jets will hold this Colts team to 14 on the road like they did with the Chargers. Peyton Manning will get this team in the endzone a few times. I also think the Jets will find a few ways to score some points. I did tease (first time this year) the Colts down to -2 in one bet and have them in a small parlay -8.5, but I like the over much more.
Colts 27 Jets 16

Saints -3.5 vs Vikings and under 54
I was back and forth on this game all week as well. The one X factor in this game I thought would be the Vikings pass rush. We saw them just abuse Romo (just as I thought) last week and I figureed if they bring that type of pressure on Brees they should win this game. Different story this week. DTs Pat Williams(elbow), Kevin Williams(knee) and DE Ray Edwards (knee) are all questionable. Now I do expect all of them to play this week of course but I doubt they'll all be as effective as the were vs Dallas. If Brees has a split second more time than Romo did, the Saints are gonna torch this team. I also think the Saints will win the turnover battle 2-1 which may be drive killers and keep this one under.
Saints 35 Vikings 17

I don't bet teasers often but I liked this a lot...

Colts -2
Over 33.5 in Jets/Colts
Saints +3
Under 60.5 Saints/Vikings

AFC-NFC Championship Game Line Moves From Las Vegas

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Action has been good thus far in Las Vegas Sports Books for this weekends Championship games, but the sharp money hasn’t shown its hand yet. Most of the action coming in has been small money from the public with a wide array of opinions.


Ticket counts at a few different properties indicate the type of betting patterns and action that will magnify about 90% more over the weekend, but it’s a good sample ratio of what’s to come, minus the sharp money.

The Colts are trending at about a 9-to-5 edge in overall tickets written. Some books are reporting that this game is similar to what we see every year in the Super Bowl, laying the points with the favorite and taking the money line with the 'dog.

Over at the Las Vegas Hilton, they opened the game Sunday with the Colts a 7-point favorite and a standard money line of Colts minus-330 with a very generous take back of plus-270. As the game moved to 7 ½, so did the money line, peaking at -400/+330.

Read More Here on VegasInsider.com

Here's a few tidbits of past history regarding the Championship games:

Since 1970, 62% of all games (78) have been won by 11 points or more showing that when it comes down to all the marbles, one team goes for the throat while the other plays beneath the level that got them there.

In reference to Championship game points spreads and how those teams have finished that are similar to this weeks lines, you can see that the Colts have history on their side, not just winning, but covering the spread as well. Teams that were favored by 7 to 9.5-points are 14-4 against the spread.

Things are a little more competitive with the Vikings-Saints game, and how history relates to that spread. Teams that have been have been favored by 3.5 to 6.5-points in this round have gone 12-12-2 against the spread. The tightness of the number and team rating, minus the standard 3-point home-field advantage, basically make these pick 'em games.

In New Orleans case, the home field advantage -- one of the leagues better home edges -- is worth an extra half-point. So essentially the game is a tossup between the two best teams in the NFC, being played in a hostile environment. The big questions is, how much of a difference will the crowd make?

Overall, home teams vs the spread are 44-32-2 all-time. 


Current Line Through Friday Afternoon offered by the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 @ New Orleans Saints - Over/Under Total 52
New York Jets +7.5 @ Indianapolis Colts - O/U Total 39.5

NFL Divisional Playoffs: Las Vegas Money Moves Through Thursday

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

I was sitting in the Sam’s Town Sports Book the other night after a fine Mexican dinner at Willy and Jose’s and asked a few fellows who they thought may be the plays in the four NFL divisional playoff games this weekend and got an answer that was pretty one sided.


Joe, who hails originally from Chicago said, “The Chargers are going whoop that ass.”

Johnny from Philadelphia said the Saints, “Got a mission to accomplish and it don’t matter who is in their way.”

Not that it makes any difference where I was, but I’ll preface by saying I was in the den at Sam’s Town which is not exactly the same clientele as the Bellagio or Wynn Resorts, but it was the salt of the Vegas earth I was looking for.

I wanted to hear some opinions and thoughts from the everyday Joe’s on how this weekend's games were going to go. Even though the Sam’s Town Sports Book is much nicer in appearance in relation to the cast of clientele, it was the closest thing I could find to a group of audience that resembled the old Stardust where I could find a thousand reasons on each side of a big game to take each.

Joe from Chicago, also told me about a game he could be happy with on each side, “I’ll tell you what, I don’t know who to take between the Cowboys and Vikings. Brett Favre at home against what looks to be the best team in football right now. I could flip a coin on that game and be happy with either side.”

The dilemma on the Viking game seems to be a cautious tale around the Las Vegas Sports Books as well. The Vikings opened up a short 2.5-point home favorite but has been slightly bet up to 3 (EVEN) at the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook.

Read More Here...

Las Vegas Sports Book Moves for the NFL Wild Card Weekend

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The Sports Books in Las Vegas will look to turn the tide on Saturday and Sunday with the NFL Wild Card weekend. Before I get into where and why the Sports Books are at the numbers they are now, we need to go back to Sunday night and Monday morning when most of Vegas put the lines up.


Wild Card weekend is the major exception to setting NFL playoff lines that has to have past history taken into serious consideration. Underdogs rule in this round, especially games where the favored number is set from 1 to 3 points.

As documented by Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet, Underdogs getting 1 to 3-points in the Wild Card round have gone 24-16-2 since 1978. As it turned out, two of the four games would be in that area with the other two very close.

The strategies and lines that went out on Sunday and Monday were vastly different throughout the city with a wide array of numbers for the shoppers. When I saw all the differing numbers, it reminded me of the old Vegas days before off-shore wagering when no one moved on air and there was nothing called a market number.

There were lots opinions out there and you could see the respect for the number “3”. The book I like to reference the most when following lines is the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book because their shades on games generally seem to be more correct than most and they rarely use a market number. Jay Kornegay, Ed Salmons, and Jeff Sherman lead the staff of bookmakers at the Hilton and are the sharpest group in town.

Many of the Las Vegas Books opened the Bengals game 3-flat. Las Vegas Sports Consultants recommended the Bengals -4. The boys at the Hilton anticipated where the line was going to be, while respecting the number “3” and tested the waters with Bengals -3 (+105) which basically baits any sharp out there, “If you think the Bengals have value at 3 and you think the game will go to 3.5 or higher, come and get some plus money laying it.“

Read More here atVegasinsider.com