Saturday, January 23, 2010

Mike T's AFC/NFC Championship Picks: Saints Go Marching On - Teaser Pleaser


by Mike T.

I had a very average week in the divisional round going 3-3 putting me at 7-4 for the playoffs and 39-23 for the season. All season long I had three games to chose from a list of sixteen. During the playoffs I felt I should have an opinion on every game and even some totals. It's much harder to try and have an opinion on every game instead of just the ones you like. The only game I really loved last week was the Vikings and I wound up doing OK since I got even more Vikes early Sunday morning. This week there is one side that I like and one I just can't get a handle on. I did play both totals though so I just have three picks to make.


Jets at Colts over 40
This is the game I can't get a grip on. This game opened at Colts -7 and is now 8.5 or even 9 at some places. I don't like laying more than 7 and I don't like that it's almost 2-1 public money. Normally because of those two reasons I'd be all over the Jets but rookie QBs don't have much success in conference championship games. I do like this game to go over. I don't think the Jets will hold this Colts team to 14 on the road like they did with the Chargers. Peyton Manning will get this team in the endzone a few times. I also think the Jets will find a few ways to score some points. I did tease (first time this year) the Colts down to -2 in one bet and have them in a small parlay -8.5, but I like the over much more.
Colts 27 Jets 16


Saints -3.5 vs Vikings and under 54
I was back and forth on this game all week as well. The one X factor in this game I thought would be the Vikings pass rush. We saw them just abuse Romo (just as I thought) last week and I figureed if they bring that type of pressure on Brees they should win this game. Different story this week. DTs Pat Williams(elbow), Kevin Williams(knee) and DE Ray Edwards (knee) are all questionable. Now I do expect all of them to play this week of course but I doubt they'll all be as effective as the were vs Dallas. If Brees has a split second more time than Romo did, the Saints are gonna torch this team. I also think the Saints will win the turnover battle 2-1 which may be drive killers and keep this one under.
Saints 35 Vikings 17

I don't bet teasers often but I liked this a lot...

Colts -2
Over 33.5 in Jets/Colts
Saints +3
Under 60.5 Saints/Vikings

6 comments:

  1. The majority of people are taking the Colts to kill the Jets this
    week but you have to consider how well New York matches up against
    Indy. Indy has the worst running game in the league, and is ALL
    Peyton. The Jets have the #1 pass-defence and if they can put the
    clamps on Peyton early… it could very well be a Jets win. TheCoach
    isn’t calling a J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS win but they will cover the
    spread. I know Indy shut down Baltimore’s running game last week
    but the Jets strive on being quick and elusive.. something Ray Rice
    isn’t…

    Minnesota and New Orleans is going to be such a good game. I was
    hoping all season long these two would meet up in the NFC
    Championship and honestly.. either team could team this game. The
    Saints are -3.0 favourites and historically home team get given three
    points for the home-field advantage… so basically this game is a
    pick-em and there is ONE thing that I like about the Saints and its
    that home-field advantage. Last week Warner and Romo combined for 7
    sacks and 4 fumbles largely in part to not being able to communicate
    with their offence. The SuperDome is NUTS and I don’t care how much
    experience Favre has, the crowd can help a team and also hurt the
    other so much.

    Feel free to check out my picks with scores (and of course
    cheerleader pictures) @
    http://www.lionsdenu.com/category/sports/nfl-guide-2009-2010/

    Best of luck to all this week,
    Regards,
    TheCoach

    ReplyDelete
  2. I just keep thinking about how many times Peyton Manning has destroyed Buddy Ryan's defenses over the years.

    Different squad, but he was doing the same thing when taken out of the third quarter in week 16,

    ReplyDelete
  3. I like the side on the Colts/Jets game even less now :(

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thank you Jay Feely for getting that square play there.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thanks Fireball, I wish I did an 8 team teaser, It all got there.

    ReplyDelete