Saturday, February 6, 2010

Mike T's Super Bowl Picks: Winners all Season and Looking to Close a Winner

by Mike T.

It comes down to this. The two best teams all year are now finally going to face off in what should be an epic shoot out. With all the money coming on the Colts for the first 10 days or so the Saints money is now coming in. So, if you liked the Saints you probably should have taken them 2 or 3 days ago when you could have gotten them at 5.5 or even 6. If you like the Colts you may want to wait close to game time where you might see 4 again.

Stats. Stats. Stats. There is a statistic or a trend for just about everything you can think of in order to decide which side you want to take. Saints 6-1-1 in their last 8 on grass, Colts 9-1-1 in their last 11 on grass. Both teams started 13-0, both teams were 7-1 on the road. The list goes on and on and on. In the end there is something or a few things that seems to stick out the most and will probably be the deciding factor in which way you go. I have mine and here they are.

The first thing I thought just like most people did is that the Colts looked really impressive in their wins over the Ravens and Jets while The Saints had to go to overtime to beat the Vikes. It made me wonder what the line would be right after the NFC conference game was over. Not what it should be but what it would be. Considering public's perception and memory I figured the Colts would be 3 point favorites and it wouldn't move much. After a couple days seeing the money pouring in on the Colts at almost 3-1 I started (again) thinking what the line should be.

When looking at these two teams over the entire season and not just the last game or two there is no doubt in my mind that this game should be a pick'em. Nothing more, nothing less. Therefore, getting the Saints at anything above 3 points is huge value on a neutral field.

Now anyone who's followed my picks all year has noticed that I like to take dogs in good spots so it's only fitting that I end the year with a dog. I guess this is the point where I have to throw out some stat or trend to back up my selection. There are two that I like best. The first is the Saints defense was 2nd overall this year with 39 turnovers and a +11 ratio while the Colts were just +2. The second stat is the Colts were 30th in the league on 3rd down defense. Now some say they play a bend but don't break style and that's why they give up a lot of 1st downs. That may be true but the Saints will get in the endzone often if the Colts play that style of D this Sunday.

I like this one to be a classic shoot out with the Saints winning the turnover battle and ultimately the game.

Saints 42 Colts 38

I also took a few props...
I have Brees to score the 1st TD at 18-1
I have the Saints to score exactly 42 points at 40-1
and the Saints to score exactly 48 and 49 points ( two bets) both at 80-1

I loved under 8 punts for the game when it opened and it was +110 but when I got there it was -190.
I also missed out on over 76 total points at 16-1 it was 4-1 when I got to the window. Oh well.


No comments:

Post a Comment