Week 16 NFL Betting Trends

By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com

 

CAROLINA at PITTSBURGH (Thursday, December 23)... Panthers only 2-6 vs. line last 8 TY but have gone "over" 4-1-1 last six, a departure from previous John Fox/Carolina "totals" trends that had been decidedly "under." Meanwhile, Tomlin trending "under" lately (4 of last 5 "under") as Steel’s long "over" skein at Heinz Field appears to be disappearing. Tech edge-slight to Steelers, based on Panthers’ spread trends.
DALLAS at ARIZONA (Saturday, December 25)... Cowboys 5-1 vs. line since Jason Garrett took over as HC, Cowboys also "over" last 11 in 2010. Cards only 2-5 vs. number at Glendale this season. Whisenhunt "over" 8-5-1 TY and 10-5-1 last 16 since late ‘09. Tech edge-"Over" and Cowboys, based on recent "totals" and team trends.
DETROIT at MIAMI... Lions have remained a pointspread force TY, now 11-3 vs. line in 2010. Meanwhile, Miami continues a pattern for Sparano, 2-5 vs. line at home TY, 5-15 vs. spread last 20 as host since mid ‘08. Dolphins also "over" 11-4 at home since ‘09, and Lions "over" 9-4-2 last 15 since late ‘09. Tech edge-Lions and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
MINNESOTA at PHILADELPHIA... Vikes 2-5 vs. line, and 1-5-1 vs. number away from home. Even with the Vick phenomenon, Birds only 5-4 vs. spread last 8 this season. Andy Reid "over" 10-4 TY and 22-10 last 32 since late ‘08. Tech edge-"Over" and Eagles, based on "totals" and team trends.
WASHINGTON at JACKSONVILLE... Del Rio would have been on 7-game cover stgreak had Colts not run back onside kick for TD late in 4th Q last week. JV 5-2 vs. spread as host TY after problems in previous years at home. Jags lately have been trending "over" (10-5 last 15 "over" for Del Rio). Tech edge-Jags and sight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
SAN FRANCISCO at ST. LOUIS... Singletary 2-4 vs. line as visitor TY. This series "under" 6 of last 8, although meeting at Candlestick was “over" on Nov. 14. Rams 9-4 vs. line last 12 T3. Tech edge- Rams, based on team trends.

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SEATTLE at TAMPA BAY... Weak tech spots for both. Bucs just 1-5-1 vs. line as host TY and 2-12-1 in role as host since Raheem Morris took over last season. Pete Carroll just 2-5 vs. spread on road TY, and Seahawks only 3-13 vs. number their last 16 as visitor. Seattle 10--3-1 "over" in 2010, and "over" 12-5 last 17 on road. Tech edge-"Over," based on Seahawks’ road "totals" trends.
NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO... Belichick hasn’t lost to Bills since opener of 2003 season, winning last 14, although he has failed to cover last three in series (0-2-1). Belichick has covered 8 of last 11 TY, however. Chan Gailey 6-2-1 vs. number last 9 TY. Belichick "over" 12-2 TY and 14-2 last 16 since late ‘09. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Patriots, based on Belichick "totals" and team trends.
NY JETS at CHICAGO... Ugh! Jets "under" 3 last 4 TY after "over" 9 of first 10 in 2010. Rex Ryan also just 3-5 last 8 on board TY. Lovie "under" 7- 17-11-2 since ‘09. Tech edge- "Under" and slight to Bears, based on "totals" and team trends.
BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND... Nobody seems to mention the old Browns vs. new Browns connection anymore with these two. Brownies 1-5 vs. line last 5 TY, also "under" last three after "over" previous 6 TY. Ravens has won and covered four straight vs. Brownies prior to non-cover at M&T Bank Stadium back on Sept. 26. Ravens "over" last 3 away TY, and "overs" 4-2 last six in series. Tech edge-slight to Ravens and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
TENNESSEE at KANSAS CITY... Titans have dropped last three on road, after covering first three as visitor this season. Chiefs 4–2 vs. line as host in 2010, but trends don’t extend much further. Tech edge-slight to Chiefs, based on team trends.
INDIANAPOLIS at OAKLAND... Indy now "over" 9-2 its last 11 as visitor. Oakland "over" 7-3 last 10 as host, and "over" 9-5 this season. Teams haven’t met since ‘07. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.
HOUSTON at DENVER... Kubiak returns to Denver. Broncos "over" 10-4 TY and "over" 16-4 last 20 dating to late ‘09. Kubiak "over" 10-4 TY and 12-4 last 16 since late ‘09. Kubiak 2-0 as road chalk TY, Broncos just 2-4 vs. line at home and 3-8 vs. line last 11 as host. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Texans, based on "totals" and team trends.
NY GIANTS at GREEN BAY... Hard to know what we are getting from Pack. Giants have covered 4 of last 5 on road TY. Pack "over" last 2 at home in 2010 but "under" 9-5 in all games this season. Tech edge-slight to Giants, based on team trends.
SAN DIEGO at CINCINNATI... Cincy just 3-8 vs. line last 10 TY. Norv rallying again down stretch, after 49ers win Bolts have now covered 6 of last 7 TY, and Norv 23-10 vs. spread in last 8 games of reg. season since ‘07. Tech edge-Norv, based on team trends.
NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA (Monday, December 27)... Falcons on brink of clinching NFC South, and it will be hard for NO to bypass Atlanta in NFC South, even if it wins this game. Atlanta has won SU last 8 TY and covered last 6. Atlanta 19-3 SU at Georgia Dome since Mike Smith arrived in ‘08. Saints just 2-8 vs. line last 10 as visitor, and note Falcs 4-1 vs. line last 5 in series. Meanwhile, Saints only 4-5-1 last 9 as dog. "Overs" 5-1 last 6 in series. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Falcons, based on "totals" and team trends.