Wednesday, December 15, 2010

NFL Betting Trends For Week 15


SAN FRANCISCO at SAN DIEGO (Thursday, December 16)...Norv’s time of year, as Bolts 22-10-1 vs. line from 8th week in reg. season onward since ‘07. Norv 5-1 in role TY. Singletary, however, 9-2 his last 11 as dog (2-1 TY). Tech edge-slight to Norv, based on team trends.
KANSAS CITY at ST. LOUIS... Despite loss at Saints, Rams have still covered 9 of last 12, including 4 of last 5 at Dome. Chiefs "over" their four of last five on road, and Rams "over" 3-2 last 5 after extended "under" spell for Spagnuolo prior (15-8-1 "under" previous 24). Tech edge-slight to Rams and "over, based on team and totals" trends.
HOUSTON at TENNESSEE... Titans got the back door of back door covers on Thursday vs. Colts, their first after 5 straight spread losses, but are still only 1-5 vs. line last 6 on board. Houston only 2-7 vs. number itself last 9 on board, but one of those was a 20-0 win over Titans (with Rusty Smith at QB). Kubiak has now also won and covered 3 of last 4 vs. Fisher after Titans had won and covered previous five meetings. Kubiak also "over" 11-4 last 15 since late LY. Tech edge-Texans and "over," based on team and Kubiak "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS...Interestingly, no team has swept both pointspread decisions any season between these two since the current AFC South wad formed in 2002, and these two were placed together. Jags won and covered first meeting TY. Jags, however, have covered last 3 and 5 of last 6 meetings at Indy in what had been a visitor-oriented series until the first game this season (road team had covered last 6). Colts no covers last 3 at home TY or 4 of last 5 overall after allowing Titans in the back door on Thursday. Del Rio has covered his last 6 games in ‘10. "Overs" 5 -1 last 6 meetings, Jags "over" 9-4 last 13 since late LY, Colts "over" 12-5 last 17 reg.-season games after 30-28 win at Tennessee. Tech edge-Jags and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
ARIZONA at CAROLINA... Panthers 0-2 as chalk TY and 1-6 vs. number as host TY. Cards "over" 8-4-1 TY and 10-4-1 last 14 since late ‘09, while Panthers "over" 4-0-1 last 5 after extended "under" run prior. Hard to believe this was an NFC playoff game just two years ago.Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.
CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI... Cincy 2-8 vs. line last 10 in 2010. Browns have covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series. Browns "over" 9-5 last 14 since late ‘09. Mangini 8-6-1 vs. line away for Browns since LY. If Marvin Lewis favored note 0-3 record in role at home TY, 0-9 as home chalk since ‘09. Tech edge-Browns and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
BUFFALO at MIAMI... Dolphins continue formful pattern, 2-4 vs. line at home TY, now 5-14 last 19 vs. spread as host for Sparano. Miami also "over" 11-3 last 14 as host. Sparano, however, is 4-1 SU and vs. line against Bills. Bills also "over" 4-1 as visitor TY. Tech edge-"Over" and Bills, based on Dolphins’ home trends.
PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS... Birds dominating lately, winning and covering last 5 meetings. Surprisingly, Andy Reid 0-2 as dog TY and 1-6 in role since LY in what was once a very good role for him. Reid "over" 9-4 TY and 21-10 last 31 on board since late ‘08. Coughlin "over" 17-11 since ‘09. Tech edge-Eagles and "over," based on series and "totals" trends.
WASHINGTON at DALLAS... Jerry Jones has covered five straight since Jason Garrett was promoted to HC role. Meanwhile, The Shan has lost 5 of last 6 TY (2-4 vs. line in those games). Skins have covered 6 of last 8 meetings, and last four "under" in series. Although Dallas "over" last 9 in 2010. Tech edge-Cowboys and "over," based on recent trends.
DETROIT at TAMPA BAY... Former NFC Central rivals. Bucs amazingly have covered just once at home TY (1-4-1) and are just 2-11-1 vs. number as host since Raheem Morris arrived LY. Lions surprising 10-3 vs. line this season, and "over" 11-5-1 last 17 since late LY. Tech edge-Lions and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
NEW ORLEANS at BALTIMORE... Saints only 9-16-1 vs. points their last 26 on board. Surprisingly, Saints also just 2-7 vs. number last nine as reg.-season visitor. John Harbaugh "under" 11-6 last 17 at home. Tech edge-slight to Ravens and "under," based on team trends.
ATLANTA at SEATTLE... Pete Carroll 4-2 vs. line a home TY, and Seahawks 11-5 vs. spread last 16 at Qwest Field. Carroll also "over" 9-3-1 TY, but only 4-4 as dog. Atlanta has covered last 5 in 2010, 9-4 overall vs. line TY, and Mike Smith "over" 10-5-1 last 16 as visitor. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.
DENVER at OAKLAND... Broncos destroyed by Raiders 59-14 in last meeting. Note, however, that road team has won and covered last 5 meetings, with Denver romping in last two at Coliseum. Now, though, they try with a third different coach in three years. Denver "over" 9-4 TY and "over" 14-4 last 18 on board. Broncos also just 7-16 their last 23 on board since mid ‘09. Raiders 2-2 as home chalk TY but 2-12 last 14 in role. Series "over" 5-2 last seven meetings. Tech edge-Broncos and "over," based on series and "totals" trends.
NY JETS at PITTSBURGH... Teams haven’t met since ‘07. Jets 2-5 vs. line last 7 TY, but 2-1 as dog and 7-4 as dog for Rex Ryan since LY. Steel 5-4 as chalk TY but just 9-15 last 24 in role. Steel home "over" trend has faded lately but Jets "over" 9-4 TY and "over" 13-5 last 18 since late ‘09. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.
GREEN BAY at NEW ENGLAND... Once upon a time this was a Super Bowl matchup (SB XXXI). Note Pack’s 17-5 mark last 22 as dog since late ‘06 (1-1 in role TY). Belichick "over" 11-2 TY and 13-2 last 15 since late ‘09, though Pack "under" 9-4 TY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Packers, based on "totals" and team trends.
CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (Monday, December 20)... Bears 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 vs. line since bye week, Vikings 2-1 SU and vs. line for Leslie Frazier. Vikes 4-1 SU and vs. line last 5 as series host, but were beaten 27-13 at Chicago last month. Bears "under" 7-4-2 TY, 17-10-2 "under" since ‘09. Tech edge-Bears and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

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