Super Bowl XLV Betting Notes From Las Vegas: Coast Resorts Join South Point at -3

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Saturday - 12:50 pm

The "3" Train is coming through Las Vegas Sports Books

The South Point has remained steady at minus-3 flat on the Packers since 6:07 pm Friday after seven separate moves on the day hop-scotching from -2 ½ to -3. This is the longest stretch of time that has passed without a move since they started maneuvering on Thursday, which leads me to believe they have satisfied most of the sharp large money’s thirst for Steelers +3 flat.

Over at the M Resort, they moved from Packers -2 ½, -132 to -135 at 9:30 am as Green Bay money keeps coming in. Everyone else in town is staying put at -2 ½ (-120) and most are suggesting they don’t foresee any changes despite the South Point’s stance locally.

Bob Scucci, Race and Sports Director for the Coast Resorts, said things were a bit slow the last couple of days because many of his expected guests were delayed due to weather in the Midwest and Canada, but that the action has been steady since last night once they all arrived.

“We actually have more tickets on the Steelers, but the average wager on the Packers far outweighs what we have on the Steelers. We had taken several six-figure bets on the Packers early on.”

At the time of talking with Scucci, he didn’t foresee his chain of sports books needing to move to -3 if the current rate of action continued. “We’ve got a large enough handle on the Steelers money-line to offset a lot of the risk we have on the point spread money differential with the Packers. The ideal situation for us would be to have the Packers win by one or two points.”

Shortly after our conversation, however, something substantial occurred forcing Scucci to make a move becoming the second property to jump aboard the “3” train as his sports books moved to Packers -3 (EVEN).

Equal action coming on game now 

Scucci added that one of the more popular bets taken has been a two-team parlay with the OVER to either side. Should the game go UNDER, those parlay funds will also go a long way to deflect any loss that may be incurred should the Packers cover.

The Venetian/Palazzo Race and Sports Director Chuck Esposito is in the same boat as many others around town who don’t anticipate needing to go minus-3.

“Over the last couple days, with 24 hours to go, we’ve seen a lot more Steelers action come our way at +2 ½ (EVEN). During the first week, we saw about a 5-to-1 ratio in ticket counts taking the Packers and that figure has been reduced to about 3-to-1. The same goes for the total. We had a lot of players going with the UNDER early on, but have seen it shift towards the OVER.”

That’s kind of been the theme throughout Las Vegas, in particular the strip properties. Sports Books are seeing Steelers money more frequently now, but they’re still quite long on the other side from all the early action on the Packers.

So far we have only two books at -3, but by Sunday morning I would expect to see several more make the jump. Even if some make the move, it may be too late because of the large Steelers money already being spent at the South Point Thursday and Friday meaning that several sports book Directors will be waving Terrible Towels tomorrow. Stay tuned for the final update tomorrow.


Great Places To Watch The Super Bowl in Las Vegas
Here’s a quick look at some of the most fun places to watch the game at Sunday if you haven’t already made plans. The sports books are all going to be jammed. Several of them who have used their show rooms with giant screens all season for NFL games can use them for the Super Bowl per the NFL. Casino’s looking to use a show room with a giant screen exclusively for the Super Bowl are prohibited with threat of litigation from the NFL.

Lagasse' Stadium is a great place to watch big games

Places like the Hilton and South Point have been running weekly parties all season in their show rooms and provide and an excellent environment with their HD movie screen. The crowds are very large, but are contained well making it comfortable even for those who hate large crowds.

On a smaller scale, all of the 34 PT’s Taverns spread across town will be offering all you can eat stadium buffets for $15 will HD screens all over the place.

There aren’t many places better than Lagasse’s Stadium inside the Palazzo where Esposito runs a sports book out of. The double-decker palace of sports viewing has 109 flat screens spread throughout, including a monster video wall in front of where the stadium seating is.

Another amenity for players at both the Venetian and Palazzo is being able to play Cantor Gaming’s In-Running wagering with a hand held device. No waiting in lines; you can just sit there and wager on just about anything -- including casino games -- from the comfort of your luxurious seat on every play if desired.

I will be at the NASCAR Café at the Sahara with ESPN Radio’s Brian Blessing. For $60 you can eat and drink all you want beginning at 1 pm. Blessing will also be giving away hundreds of prizes all game that include UNLV tickets, concerts, movie premieres and commemorative t-shirts. Everyone in attendance will get something.

Inside the Super Bowl Betting Numbers

By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

Handicapping the Super Bowl takes on a different perspective each year.

Granted, there are a myriad of statistics, angles and trends we can draw from but the bottom line is the personalities of the teams are equally important when it comes to isolating the eventual winner.

Safe to say that sports handicappers do not hold psychiatric degrees, let’s take a quick look at some of the more interesting trends that have occurred in Super Bowls past. All results are ATS (Against the Spread) in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, unless noted otherwise.

Faux Favorites
The public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it’s like putting kids in a candy store.

As a result, the public today is badly in need of new dental health care coverage. That’s because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be a decaying experience, with favorites sporting a 19-11 SU and 12-16-2 ATS record, including 4-9-2 ATS the last 15 games.

Favorites (Green Bay) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 6-13-2 ATS.

Super Bowl chalk taking on an opponent that did not cover its championship game by 12 or more points are 8-6 SU and 3-12-1 ATS.

The last 16 favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-14-1 ATS.

Hit Me
Speaking of scoring, putting points in the scoreboard is obviously tantamount to succeeding in this game.

Those that do, win the game and the money. Those that don’t, lose the game and the money. It’s just that simple. And 21 points appears to be the cut-line.

That’s because teams that fail to score 21 points in the Super Bowl are 1-20 SU and 3-17-1 ATS. Teams that tally 21 or more points are 26-9 SU and 23-9-3 ATS. The lone winner that failed to eclipse the 21-point plateau was the New York Giants (17 points) in SBXLII against New England.

Twenty-seven points virtually assures a victory as teams putting 27 or more on the scoreboard are 22-1 SU and 19-3-1 ATS. The lone team to bust this mark and lose was Carolina (29), who fell to New England in SBXXXVIII.

Seed Me

Going back the last 15 years, the higher-seeded team has struggled mightily against the spread in the big game.

Last year paired both the No. 1 seeds from each conference for the first time in 16 years when New Orleans upended Indianapolis, 31-17.

Two years ago Pittsburgh downed Arizona, 27-23, while failing to cover the seven-point spread. As a result the higher seeded team (Pittsburgh) will carry a 1-11-2 ATS mark into SBXLV.

On a side note, the last No.1 to win a Super Bowl, playing a non-No.1 seed, was the ’99 Rams.

Conference Call
Like the National League’s one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since 1980, going 19-11 SU and 18-10-2 ATS.

When facing an AFC foe off back-to-back ATS wins, the NFC is 15-6 SU and 15-5-1 ATS in games with Roman Numerals attached. However, the NFC is only 4-9 SU and 6-6-1 ATS in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

One final note: this marks the first time in nine years the NFC will dress up as the favorite.

That’s an early take on this year’s Super Bowl matchup. Good luck as always.

Roberts Championship Game Selections: Looks Like Jets-Packers Super Bowl

Brad Smith Started the roll on Pittsburgh early in week 15 with a KO return TD

After a long and hard thought out process, I finally came up with my wagering strategy for this weekend. I played the under in both games for a full unit as my top plays, but I also negated some of what I perceive as value on those plays by playing half-unit plays on a few others.

I took the Jets money-line at plus-185 and the Packers at minus-3 ½ for a half-unit each. I round-robined the Jets M/L, Packers and the two unders for a half-unit each with two, three and four team parlays.

Defense looks to be the underlying scenario for each team in these games as matchups between them have already suggested earlier this season. Both Packers-Bears games this season went under considerably and yet the total is 43.5 for that match. The Bears have been able to contain Aaron Rodgers more so than others this season. Even though Rodgers is on a roll right now, he should be expected to have some difficulties.

The reason for siding with the Packers rests with the defense who has picked off Jay Cutler three times in their two games against only one TD pass. Look for Cutler to force the action as the pressure gets a little heavy thanks to Charles Woodson blitzing and Clay Mathews just playing his normal game.

The Jets set the tone in their earlier game this season and maintained it almost throughout. If the game is close, the Jets win. They used the week 15 Pittsburgh game to rebound during a late season slump and they have been rolling ever since. In this instance, you have to either lay the points with Pittsburgh or take the money line. In 89% of Championship games, the spread never comes into question; it’s either and upset or the spread is covered.

Packers defense should stifle Bears' Cutler, again.

1 Unit Plays
GB/CHI UNDER 43 ½
NYJ/PITT UNDER 38 ½

½ Unit Plays
Packers -3 ½
Jets +185 Money Line

½ Unit 2, 3, 4 Round Robin
Packers -3 ½
Jets M/L +185
NYJ/PITT UNDER 38 ½
GB/CHI UNDER 43 ½

Proposition Value
James Starks' listed rushing yards is 53.5 under -120 at the MGM properties while he is 45.5 flat at Cantor Gaming properties. This is a great spot to middle yardage with plays on each side and hope that he lands in between the numbers so you win both sides. I played 2 units on the under at MGM while playing one unit on the over at Cantor Gaming. I like Starks to continue the Packers under theme in the rushing game against the Bears this year, but can't let the value on landing on a very probable middle slip away.  

AFC & NFC Championship Game Betting Spread History

NFC Championship History
Year	Matchup	Score	Line	ATS
2009-10	Minnesota at New Orleans	31-28	4, 54	Underdog, Over
2008-09	Philadelphia at Arizona	32-25	3.5, 47	Underdog, Over
2007-08	N.Y. Giants at Green Bay	23-20	8, 41	Underdog, Over
2006-07	New Orleans at Chicago	34-14	2.5, 42.5	Favorite, Over
2005-06	Carolina at Seattle	34-14	3.5, 43.5	Favorite, Over
2004-05	Atlanta at Philadelphia	27-10	5.5, 37.5	Favorite, Under
2003-04	Carolina at Philadelphia	14-3	4, 36.5	Underdog, Under
2002-03	Tampa Bay at Philadelphia	27-10	4, 34	Underdog, Under
2001-02	Philadelphia at St. Louis	29-24	10.5, 49	Underdog, Over
2000-01	Minnesota at N.Y. Giants	41-0	2.5, 42	Favorite, Under
1999-00	Tampa Bay at St. Louis	11-6	14.5, 44	Underdog, Under
1998-99	Atlanta at Minnesota	30-27	10.5, 55	Underdog, Over
1997-98	Green Bay at San Francisco	23-10	2.5, 44	Favorite, Under
1996-97	Carolina at Green Bay	30-13	12.5, 38	Favorite, Over
1995-96	Green Bay at Dallas	38-27	8.5, 50	Favorite, Over
1994-95	Dallas at San Francisco	38-28	7.5, 48	Favorite, Over
1993-94	San Francisco at Dallas	38-21	3, 47.5	Favorite, Over
1992-93	Dallas at San Francisco	30-20	4, 37	Underdog, Over
1991-92	Detroit at Washington	41-10	13, 43	Favorite, Over
1990-91	N.Y. Giants at San Francisco	15-13	8, 37	Underdog, Under
1989-90	L.A. Rams at San Francisco	30-3	7, 46	Favorite, Over
1988-89	San Francisco at Chicago	28-3	1, 34.5	Underdog, Under
1987-88	Minnesota at Washington	17-10	3.5	Favorite
1986-87	Washington at N.Y. Giants	17-0	7.5	Favorite
1985-86	L.A. Rams at Chicago	24-0	10.5	Favorite
1984-85	Chicago at San Francisco	23-0	9	Favorite
1983-84	San Francisco at Washington	24-21	10.5	Underdog
1982-83	Dallas at Washington	31-17	2	Underdog
1981-82	Dallas at San Francisco	28-27	3	Underdog
1980-81	Dallas at Philadelphia	20-7	1	Underdog
1979-80	L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay	9-0	3.5	Favorite
1978-79	Dallas at L.A. Rams	28-0	3.5	Favorite
1977-78	Minnesota at Dallas	26-3	11.5	Favorite
1976-77	L.A. Rams at Minnesota	24-13	4.5	Favorite
1975-76	Dallas at L.A. Rams	37-7	6	Underdog
1974-75	L.A. Rams at Minnesota	14-10	4	PUSH
1973-74	Minnesota at Dallas	27-10	1	Underdog
1972-73	Dallas at Washington	26-3	3	Favorite
1971-72	San Francisco at Dallas	14-3	7.5	Favorite
1970-71	Dallas at San Francisco	17-10	4	Underdog

AFC Championship History Year Matchup Score Line ATS 2009-10 N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis 30-17 8, 40 Favorite, Over 2008-09 Baltimore at Pittsburgh 23-14 6, 35 Favorite, Over 2007-08 San Diego at New England 21-12 14, 48 Underdog, Under 2006-07 New England at Indianapolis 38-34 3.5, 47 Favorite-Over 2005-06 Pittsburgh at Denver 34-17 3, 41 Underdog-Over 2004-05 New England at Pittsburgh 41-27 3, 35 Favorite, Over 2003-04 Indianapolis at New England 24-14 3, 43 Favorite, Under 2002-03 Tennessee at Oakland 41-24 8, 47 Favorite-Over 2001-02 New England at Pittsburgh 24-17 10, 37 Underdog, Over 2000-01 Baltimore at Oakland 16-3 6, 36.5 Underdog, Under 1999-00 Tennessee at Jacksonville 33-14 7, 40.5 Underdog, Over 1998-99 N.Y. Jets at Denver 23-10 9, 51.5 Favorite, Under 1997-98 Denver at Pittsburgh 24-21 2.5, 41 Favorite, Over 1996-97 Jacksonville at New England 20-6 7, 44 Favorite, Under 1995-96 Indianapolis at Pittsburgh 20-16 12, 41 Underdog, Under 1994-95 San Diego at Pittsburgh 17-13 9, 35 Underdog, Under 1993-94 Kansas City at Buffalo 30-13 3, 38 Favorite, Under 1992-93 Buffalo at Miami 29-10 2, 41 Favorite, Under 1991-92 Denver at Buffalo 10-7 11, 45 Underdog, Under 1990-91 L.A. Raiders at Buffalo 51-3 7, 37 Favorite, Over 1989-90 Cleveland at Denver 37-21 3.5, 40 Favorite, Over 1988-89 Buffalo at Cincinnati 21-10 4, 40.5 Favorite, Under 1987-88 Cleveland at Denver 38-33 2.5, 44.5 Favorite, Over 1986-87 Denver at Cleveland 23-20 3, 38 Underdog, Over 1985-86 New England at Miami 31-14 5.5 Underdog 1984-85 Pittsburgh at Miami 45-28 9.5 Favorite 1983-84 Seattle at L.A. Raiders 30-14 7.5 Favorite 1982-83 N.Y. Jets at Miami 14-0 2 Favorite 1981-82 San Diego at Cincinnati 27-7 4.5 Favorite 1980-81 Oakland at San Diego 34-27 4 Underdog 1979-80 Houston at Pittsburgh 27-13 9.5 Favorite 1978-79 Houston at Pittsburgh 34-5 7 Favorite 1977-78 Oakland at Denver 20-17 3.5 Underdog 1976-77 Pittsburgh at Oakland 24-7 4.5 Underdog 1975-76 Oakland at Pittsburgh 16-10 6 PUSH 1974-75 Pittsburgh at Oakland 24-13 5.5 Underdog 1973-74 Oakland at Miami 27-10 6.5 Favorite 1972-73 Miami at Pittsburgh 21-17 2.5 Favorite 1971-72 Baltimore at Miami 21-0 1.5 Favorite 1970-71 Oakland at Baltimore 27-17 1 Underdog

** Winner listed in Bold