Packers are the Early Public Choice in Super Bowl Against the Steelers

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Rodgers and Pack are the favorites

When the first line came out for the Super Bowl following the Steelers win over the Jets Sunday there was a wide array of opinions on what the Super Bowl should be. Prior to Sunday’s games, Lucky’s sports books had posted a number of pick’em and the savants over at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book concurred. However, when the first lines came out, there was a drastic change as most had eventually settled on the Packers being a 2 ½-point favorite.

Some sports books such as the Golden Nugget even opened as high as minus-3 ½ with Sports Book Director Tony Miller citing simply a need to get early money on the other side because the Packers have been such a darling with the public. Others such as Lucky’s, the Mirage, South Point and Hilton started low and they found that the public was definitely feeling love for the Packers as the money kept pouring in forcing their line ever so close to minus-3, but staying just clear at minus-2 ½.

It’s the Super Bowl, the most bet upon event of the year for every sports book -- legal and illegal -- in the world. Everyone has an opinion on the game, but many of those opinions change drastically by the time the game starts thanks to two weeks of hype and the truck loads of information supplied to everyone.

Over the course of sports book history in Las Vegas, only two games have been set as low as this one with the 1972 Dolphins as 1-point favorites and the 1970 Colts minus-2 ½, both of which covered. Every other Super Bowl has been set a minus-3 or higher.

Something drastically different from those two Super Bowls was the advent of the internet and off-shore books, which in many way dictates the market price. The market was driven Sunday as a prominent off-shore book posted a line before the Steelers AFC Championships game had concluded and when it was over, the price had been set at minus-2 ½. Sports books like Lucky’s had started low at minus-1 ½, but quickly got in line because of the forced action.

So is this really the correct line and might we see an influx of Pittsburgh money come in late? My guess is, yes we will, and any value to be found on the under dog now will not to be had by the time the Super Bowl kicks off.

But my past history behind the counter also has me second-guessing my theory. When the Raiders opened as 4-point favorites to Tampa Bay in 2003, I positively felt that the public and Sharps would be on the Raiders which altered some normal bookmaking procedures. Between being on the west coast and the Raiders being a public favorite all year long, I felt the money had to come and I held steady at minus-3 ½ all the way to kickoff despite overwhelming Tampa Bay support. Needless to say, the money never came and the Buccaneers rolled easily, 48-21 that day, making it one of the few losing Super Bowl decisions.

Steeler Nation comes strong with Bets

Because the Steeler nation is so strong and their worth to the public after winning two Super Bowls in the last five years, I have to believe that the Pittsburgh money will come and get closer to the pick’em number originally forecasted. The only flaw in that assessment is the fact that the public control this game.

The Sharp money accounts for so little in the actual bookmaking process and everyone who has sided with the Packers thus far in the playoffs has cashed in mightily. Last week, most sports books reported ticket counts on Green Bay at a 7-to-1 ratio over the Bears. That kind of loyalty from the public will be hard to break.

Packers Crush Sports Books in Playoffs
The 2010 NFL season was favorable for the sports book in 14 of the 17 weeks, but once the playoffs started it was all down hill from there.

“This Super Bowl is going to create an amazing amount of handle,” said Hilton Executive Director Jay Kornegay, “But we have definitely paid the price to getting this great matchup with the Packers support winning every week.”

Most sports books felt the wrath of the Packers supporters the last three weeks, but there was no better example than last week against the Bears where almost everyone had a Green Bay ticket laying 3 ½-points.

“We got crushed with Green Bay,“ said MGM Resorts Sports Book Director Jay Rood, “The only thing that really saved us was the game not going over along with our future prices posting.”

The MGM properties probably have the most extensive resources of future wagers in the state and if they break even on a day when those commodities are supposed to come cashing in, it says a lot about just how big of an impact the Packers had on the city.

Another bad beat for the sports books was that seven of the eight possible sides won on teasers with the Steelers game being an all-way win.

Super Bowl Parties

We’ll have a list next week on what some of the best parties are in the city, but the first one on the schedule to get the ball rolling is the NASCAR Café at the Sahara. For $60, you can eat and drink all you want, from 1pm until the game is over. That includes any kind of drink or food offered. I will be there myself with ESPN’s Brian Blessing who will be giving away all kinds of prizes just for being there that includes free UNLV tickets, t-shirts, maid services and oil changes. Come by and say hello as we’ll also be doing some Super Bowl trivia and stump the host segments. Reservations are be taken right now at the NASCAR Café.

Who to bet?
I usually change my mind on a Super Bowl side by game day -- and not always for the better, but as of now, I’m siding with the Steelers, and not only because of the value. I think their defense will be able to do some of the things that Chicago did, a team that obviously had Aaron Rodgers rattled in the second half on their game with pressure. I also like what Ben Roethlisberger does which are several things that never show in the box score. I like his leadership and ability to limit mistakes, whether that means running for a first down or taking the sack. Although Mike Tomlin finds it hard to garner support for his coaching style, I like how the Omar Epps look-a-like captains the ship. My guess this week is a Steelers 27-23 victory.

Roberts Championship Game Selections: Looks Like Jets-Packers Super Bowl

Brad Smith Started the roll on Pittsburgh early in week 15 with a KO return TD

After a long and hard thought out process, I finally came up with my wagering strategy for this weekend. I played the under in both games for a full unit as my top plays, but I also negated some of what I perceive as value on those plays by playing half-unit plays on a few others.

I took the Jets money-line at plus-185 and the Packers at minus-3 ½ for a half-unit each. I round-robined the Jets M/L, Packers and the two unders for a half-unit each with two, three and four team parlays.

Defense looks to be the underlying scenario for each team in these games as matchups between them have already suggested earlier this season. Both Packers-Bears games this season went under considerably and yet the total is 43.5 for that match. The Bears have been able to contain Aaron Rodgers more so than others this season. Even though Rodgers is on a roll right now, he should be expected to have some difficulties.

The reason for siding with the Packers rests with the defense who has picked off Jay Cutler three times in their two games against only one TD pass. Look for Cutler to force the action as the pressure gets a little heavy thanks to Charles Woodson blitzing and Clay Mathews just playing his normal game.

The Jets set the tone in their earlier game this season and maintained it almost throughout. If the game is close, the Jets win. They used the week 15 Pittsburgh game to rebound during a late season slump and they have been rolling ever since. In this instance, you have to either lay the points with Pittsburgh or take the money line. In 89% of Championship games, the spread never comes into question; it’s either and upset or the spread is covered.

Packers defense should stifle Bears' Cutler, again.

1 Unit Plays
GB/CHI UNDER 43 ½
NYJ/PITT UNDER 38 ½

½ Unit Plays
Packers -3 ½
Jets +185 Money Line

½ Unit 2, 3, 4 Round Robin
Packers -3 ½
Jets M/L +185
NYJ/PITT UNDER 38 ½
GB/CHI UNDER 43 ½

Proposition Value
James Starks' listed rushing yards is 53.5 under -120 at the MGM properties while he is 45.5 flat at Cantor Gaming properties. This is a great spot to middle yardage with plays on each side and hope that he lands in between the numbers so you win both sides. I played 2 units on the under at MGM while playing one unit on the over at Cantor Gaming. I like Starks to continue the Packers under theme in the rushing game against the Bears this year, but can't let the value on landing on a very probable middle slip away.  

AFC & NFC Championship Weekend Betting Moves in Las Vegas; Lots of Packers Money!

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Bettors are excited about the Packers this week

Even though both number one seeds have been eliminated, it’s hard to imagine a better lineup than we have for this weeks AFC and NFC Championship games. A couple of two and six seeds having at it for the right to go to the Super Bowl wouldn’t have sounded so hot a few weeks prior to the season, but according to Lucky’s Race and Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro, this is the best possible scenario for the sports books in regards to creating handle.

“People were getting tired of the Patriots. Now we have some great matchups this week with two huge markets in Chicago and New York along with two storied franchises rich with football history in Pittsburgh and Green Bay. We couldn‘t ask for a better combination of four teams from a perspective of getting more people to the windows with opinions.”

It’s fair to say that no matter where you live, you know someone from one of those areas. Who doesn‘t know someone that can recall one of their greatest thrills in sports occurring from one of those franchises, I can‘t say I don‘t. Namath’s Jets, the ‘85 Bears, the Steel Curtain and Lombardi’s Packers; all those memories come together this week with a wider range of age groups having a stake than any combination the Falcons, Patriots or Saints could have given us.

Due in part to some of those reasons, the expected increase handle won’t just stop with the Championship games.

“Regardless of who makes the Super Bowl,” Vaccaro explained, “the fan intrigue is going to be there for either team which should lead to a big Super Bowl write.“

The early wagers have been sort of an indication of who the public is siding with. On one side, it’s been all Packers action and in the other game, it’s been a tossup.

Jimmy Vaccaro  

“I’m still waiting for someone to make a Bears bet,” joked Vaccaro. “We’ve got about a 7 to 1 ticket count ratio on the Packers. If the Packers go down, regardless of what happens in the other game, the books will have a good day.”

Lucky’s chain of books across Nevada opened the Packers minus-3 (-105), but has climbed up the ladder quickly with seven separate moves until finally settling at the current number of minus-3 ½ flat. They had went as high as minus-3 (-135), but bettors still laid it forcing them to get off the key number.

Between the Packers actual play on the field and public sentiment in their corner, Vaccaro also posted up Super Bowl lines with the Packers being a 3-point favorite against the Jets and Pick’em with the Steelers. He also has the Steelers minus-4 against the Bears and minus-1 ½ versus the Jets.

As for the other Championship game with split opinions, you’ve got two proud fan bases. With Pittsburgh, you’ve got a solid foundation of long time loyal fans to go along with another faction who just simply fares well with taking the Steelers in the playoffs.

With the Jets, you have their large fan base of hungry, excited people waiting for their first Super Bowl appearance since 1969. But beyond those faithful fans, they’ve also grown a loyal following of bettors who have routinely cashed in big with the underdog Jets in the last two playoff seasons.

“We’ve been bouncing around from minus-3 ½ to minus-4 with the Steelers. It’s been all Jets at plus-4 and all Steelers at minus-3 ½,” Vaccaro said.

In addition to the Super Bowl lines already put up for the four prospective matchups, Lucky’s is also offering a wide assortment of Championship game propositions as a mini preview to the hundreds they’ll do for the Super Bowl. Along with player props, special point spreads and in-game wagering, Vaccaro is also offering Yes/No props on each team to win the Super Bowl.

“We’ve found that bettors really like that option of betting against a team from a value standpoint,” said Vaccaro.

Packers defense shut out Jets 9-0 in week 8

The worst possible situation for the sports books this week would appear to be the Packers covering and the Jets winning outright. Even though the Steelers game is split, the factor that sends the risk over the edge is the Jets money line at a plus-175 payout, which multiplied by parlays to the Packers would make it a hefty blow to Las Vegas.

I kind of hope it happens, even though I consider most of the book Directors my friends.

The Vegas sports books had their best football season ever, so it’s time to give a little back to the bettors in the new year. Beyond that, I do believe the Jets-Packers matchup would create the most interest for the Super Bowl which would be a huge spike for business in Las Vegas; not just at the sports books, but for the entire gaming and non-gaming community.

Jets-Packers hype wouldn’t start because of seeing two teams whose main color is green going against each other, although that would be very cool too, but because they have the best stories going right now. There is no buzz surrounding the Steelers, or the Bears, and many of the fringe fans that the Super Bowl attracts know more about the childish Jay Cutler demanding a trade out of Denver than they know about his turnaround in Chicago this year. They also know more about Ben Roethlisberger’s jurisprudence stories than they’d like to which turns off that casual fan, and it’s those fans that make a Super Bowl truly super from a betting standpoint.

Two six seeds in the Super Bowl? That is a crazy thought, but they are both kind of the mainstream topic right now and I‘m hopping on the bandwagon dressed in Green.

Jets Win Over Chargers Makes Rex Ryan's Prediction Near Fruition

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

In almost a near repeat of Wild Card weekend, the first three Divisional Playoff games last weekend were snoozers with little drama. Then the weekend finale came Sunday evening and reminded us all why we love the NFL so much.


The Jets 17-14 win as 9.5-point underdogs at San Diego doesn’t match the shootout of the Packers-Cardinals with scores, but it topples that Wild Card game by being a major upset and unveiling this seasons Cinderella story.

No one believed Rex Ryan two weeks ago when a reporter asked him what he thought about the Jets 50 to 1 odds to win the Super Bowl and he replied that they should be the favorite because they have the No. 1 defense and the No. 1 running game.

Just about everyone laughed. But so far, we know the Bengals and Chargers aren’t laughing as they’ve experienced first hand what a good combination those two features are in the playoffs.

MGM-Mirage Race and Sports Book Director Jay Rood likes what the Jets are doing, but can’t be faulted if he doesn’t root for them.

“Of the four teams remaining, we do the worst with the Jets on Futures (to win the Super Bowl),” said Rood, “Maybe we all should have listened to Rex Ryan a little closer.“

The Jets supposed weakness in rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez has been somewhat of a strength during the playoffs. Under the Jets style of play, Sanchez only has to make a few passes, and must protect the ball, which he has done.

Sanchez’s second straight playoff win has already tied him with Hall of Famer Joe Namath in career playoff wins and has matched what Joe Flacco did last season with Baltimore as a rookie.

Baltimore happened to be where Rex Ryan was coaching last season before getting his first head coaching job with New York. While some grumbled when Ryan chose Sanchez to be the starter during pre-season, Ryan knew the job could get done by witnessing how the Ravens protected Flacco in a similar situation under their offensive scheme.

Read More Here on VegasInsider.com


Click Here: NFC Championship Game History with Lines & Totals

Mike T's NFL Divisional Round Selections: 7-1 Last week!

by Mike T.

It was a good start to wildcard weekend as I went 4-1 and am now 36-20 for the season. The Jets and the under(missed the exact score by a point) as well as the Cowboys were just too easy. The other two were a bit harder for me. Earlier in the week I liked the Pack and the Ravens but I changed my mind on both games and still wound up going 1-1.

The dog has done quite well in this round the past few years and I really like to take dogs but there is only one I like this week. That said here goes...

Saints -7 vs Cardinals and under 57

I actually like the under better than the side but I took them both. I made some decent money betting against the Saints this year especially down the stretch as the Saints' injuries kept piling up. This team has had plenty of rest now and The Big Easy will be rockin' tomorrow. The Cards just played a grueling overtime game and have to go on the road to an ear piercing loud dome on a short week. I think we'll see the Saints run the ball early and often keeping the clock moving and Warner on the sidelines. Darren Sharper and the rest of the Saints defense should create a turnover or two that will put this one away.

Saints 31 Cardinals 21

Ravens +6.5 at Colts
This is the only dog that I'm taking this weekend. The Colts do have an impressive record but they won at least a few games that could've gone the other way. The Colts still do have a long list of injuries (though mostly probable) which the Ravens may take advantage of. This game could start out like last week Ravens/Pats game where they take an early lead and never look back. I expect to see a heavy dose of Ray Rice and Willis Mcgahee and sound Raven defense. I'm taking Baltimore in a close one.
Ravens 24 Colts 23

Vikings -2.5 vs Cowboys
Out of all the games this week I like this one the most. The sharp money on the Vikes and the public on the Boys. Dallas has looked very impressive these last few weeks and people all over are coming out of the woodwork ready to put this team in the Bowl. While I must admit they are playing well, they've taken advantage of their opponents weaknesses the last few weeks that just don't exist this week. The Cowboys O line and D line have been pushing opponents lines around with ease recently. Now they face much tougher and healthier big men up front. They are not going to push this team around especially in their house. If they are able to slow down Adrian Peterson then Favre is gonna light them up. I also don't expect Romo to sit back in the pocket for long as the Vikes pass rush will be coming. I really don't think this one is gonna be as close as most do.
Vikings 34 Cowboys 17

Chargers-7 vs Jets and under 43
This is another game where I like the under better than the side. I did take them both though. The Jets are playing very well right now and a strong running game with a great defense will do that. The Chargers are also playing Lights Out. I think this one is going to come down to the quarterbacks. The Chargers have some very big WRs and Revis can't cover all of them. Rivers may come out firing to try and get a quick lead which may force the Jets to throw. Should San Diego jump out to an early lead it will be very hard for the Jets to get back in it. The MVP of this game might be a cornerback and if it is, his name will be Cromartie.
Chargers 28 Jets 13

Roberts NFL Divisional Playoff Selections: Who Dat Gonna Beat Dem Cardinals?

Cardinals +7 @ New Orleans: The Cardinals getting points on the road has been one of the best bets on the season going 5-0 against the spread. This is a resilient team led by a veteran QB in Kurt Warner who doesn’t rattle to the opposing teams fans. They have played their best ball in these situations dating back to last season in the playoffs. The Saints fans are some of the loudest, but the crowd has been disappointed and not a factor in losing their last two home games outright as large favorites. It’s been over a month since the Saints have won and they haven’t won convincingly since beating the Patriots on a Nov. 30 Monday night. That’s a long gap to believe they can all of a sudden become the week 12 Saints again.



Cardinals/Saints Under 57: There were 14 instances in the regular season where the game total was over 50 and the under went 11-3. The bulk of those games, 10 to be exact, were played in games involving the Saints and the under was 7-3 in those games. The Cardinals had two totals of 50 or higher and both went under the number.

Arizona lit up the scoreboard last week against the Packers, but the Cardinals defense showed a weakness against Aaron Rodgers who put 45 points on the board. The major difference coming into this game between what we saw last week is that the Packers offense had been fluid throughout to close the season while the Saints struggled badly against the Cowboys and Buccaneers at home. They weren’t able to move the ball in the same effective manner they did in the first 13 weeks of the season.

Just a side note: Over the last three season of the Divisional Playoff round, underdogs have gone 10-2 against the spread with seven of them winning straight up. I wouldn't be upset if I had to root for all four dogs this week.

Cardinals Save The Day for Las Vegas Sports Books In An Absolute Thriller!

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

There haven’t been ooh’s and aah’s in Las Vegas Sportsbooks all season like what was witnessed by the thousands who viewed Sunday’s Packers-Cardinals Wild Card matchup. The game resembled more like an Arena Football league type of game with non-stop action than an NFL game, at least by the standards set from the three previous uneventful Wild Card games over the weekend. However, unlike the old Arena league games, this game was the most heavily bet game of the weekend.

Usually the final game of the playoff weekend always has the most wagers just because of all the repeat wagers after the other games are over. Sometimes their winning bets from earlier games are rolling over from someone feeling lucky, and then sometimes it’s the unlucky who are trying to recoup their losses from the other games.

By Friday of last week, before any of the games started, several sportsbooks were already reporting that the Cardinals game had the most action of the four games by far -- both from the sharps and small money. The ticket count ratio was 6 to 1 at many books in favor of the Packers and the actual cash wagers resembled the same ratio.

When the opening line came out last Sunday night, many opened the game with the Cardinals a 3 (EVEN) or 2 ½-point favorite. That number continued to slide down all week until finally having the Packers as a 1-point favorite by Thursday. By kickoff on Sunday, most books closed with the Packers being a 3-point favorite -- a six point move in many cases.

Everyone had Packers fever. The public had just witnessed the same game last week in Arizona with Green Bay winning easily 33-7, despite the Cardinals not playing many of their starters. They had just seen the Jets dispose of the Bengals like they did last week and same with the Cowboys thumping the Eagles again, why not the Packers too. The Packers offense had been so crisp the last few weeks led by Aaron Rodgers and the defense had been almost equally as strong.

Read More Here......

Mike T Blows through Wild Card Weekend Like a Gypsy With a Crystal Ball

Mike T. goes 7-1 for the weekend, going 3-1 on his side slections and 4-0 suggesting the over in each Wild Card game. This guy has had an insane season picking underdogs and is currently viewing each teams strengths and weakness very well.

Here what he has to choose from this week in the Divisional Playoff round:

Ravens +6.5 @ Indianapolis - total 44.5

Cardinals +7 @ New Orleans - total 56.5

Cowboys +2.5 @ Minnesota - total 46.5

Jets +8 @ San Diego - total 42.5

NFL Wild Card Weekend - Las Vegas Lines

Saturday, January 9, 2010

1:30 pm (PT) - TV:NBC
New York Jets                     O/U
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5        34
Jets money came in early. This game opened Cincy -3 (+105), Las Vegas Sports Consultants recommended -4 & 36

5:00 pm (PT) - TV:NBC
Philadelphia Eagles             O/U
Dallas Cowboys -3.5            45
Eagles money came in on the opener of Eagles +4. LVSC suggested -4.5 & 45.5.


Sunday, January 10, 2010
10:00 am (PT) - TV:CBS
Baltimore Ravens                O/U
New England Patriots -3.5    43
It's been all Ravens money at most Vegas Books. Ravens opened up at +5 with some Vegas Books and LVSC sent the Patriots -6.5 & 42.

1:30 pm (PT) - TV:FOX
Green Bay Packers            O/U
Arizona Cardinals -1          47.5
It's been all Packers money thus far. Hilton opened the Cards at -3 (+110). LVSC sent out Arizona -3 (EV) & 48.5.


Lines Courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook

Since most of the games are hovering around the number "3", the below chart shows just how good the Dogs have been in this series. This season 15.2% of all NFL games have landed on "3" and in the last five seasons the figure is a combined 14.7%.

NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAMES SINCE 1978 CATEGORY VS. POINTS

1-3 pt. dogs... 24-16-2

3 1/2-6 1/2 pt. dogs... 17-15-1

7-pt. or more dogs... 11-12

Home dogs... 11-3

Road dogs... 41-40-3

Margins of victory (98 total games)-21 games have been decided by 1-3 points, 21 games by 4-7 points, 12 games by 8-13 points, and 44 games have been decided by 14 points or more.