NFL Week 15 Betting Recap From the Las Vegas Sports Books; Packers Save the Day

By Micah Roberts
Gaming Today Las Vegas

Michael Vick leads huge come back

Week 15 of the NFL season had a little bit of everything that included fantastic finishes, upsets and most of all, revenge. There were eight divisional games last week that had teams facing each other for the second time. Through Sunday, the team that lost the first time around had won five of the seven games played with the Vikings hoping to continue the trend Monday night.

There was also a nice mix of favorites (7-7) and underdogs covering giving a little of something for everyone. However, the only down side of a fantastic weekend of pro football play was that the key games the public most prominently featured in their plays went down which helped the Las Vegas sports books to either a break even or small winner for the day.

The Patriots-Packers Sunday night would ultimately decide the fate on the day for both the books and bettors. With the uncertainty of Aaron Rodgers, the game had been off the board all week until Saturday when most opened the Patriots a 14-point favorite when Matt Flynn was announced the starter. With Rodgers in, the early line had the Packers as 4 ½-point underdogs, a huge swing for a quarterback change. Despite the game being off all week, the action over the counter didn’t reflect it. The Patriots are back as being the public’s most reliable team after taking a couple years off. When the Packers covered, it was official, most sports books won for the day.

The combination of the Texans, Cowboys, Saints, Buccaneers, Falcons and Raiders coming through would have been a dreadful parlay for the house to pay, but the books were able to beat those games down as the six teams went a combined 2-4. Had either the Falcons or Raiders game been lumped with the 10 early games, the books would have won much more, but because those two large favorites were keyed together in the get-back late games with equal action on the Steelers and Jets, it negated a lot of the win from the 10 am games.

Brad Smith got it going for the Jets at Pittsburgh

If the sports books had to choose who they would like between the Jets and Steelers, it would have been Pittsburgh all the way just because of some sharp play on the Jets that pushed the line from +6 to +3 ½ by kickoff. When that kickoff came, Brad Smith returned it all the way for a touchdown and set the tone for the day of what had been a struggling Jets squad coming in.

In the game that had the most betting action of the day, Philadelphia at the Giants, DeSean Jackson became the first player in NFL history to return a punt for a winning touchdown to end a game. The public was shaded slightly towards the Eagles with parlays, but straight bets were relatively even with the Giants being favored by 3 to 2 ½ points all week, bouncing back and forth from -120 to even money.

The Sharps were also on the Rams in the I-70 battle with the Chiefs pushing that game from St. Louis opening as a 1-point underdog to being Rams a 3-point favorite by kickoff, Kansas City won the game 27-13 and in doing so kept the futile NFC West wide open. The Seahawks and 49ers both lost which paves the way for a chase to the playoffs for all three led by the Seahawks and Rams 6-8 records. A major piece of that puzzle will be unveiled when the 49ers travel to St. Louis this week.

Despite Tampa Bay’s 8-6 record, they still hadn’t beat a team with a winning record which helped the public decide easily who to choose in their match with the Lions. Sharp money actually came in on Detroit and pushed the number from +6 to +4, with some places even dropping to +3 ½. The Sharps were right as the Lions pulled of a 23-20 overtime win, the first road win for Detroit in 26 games.

One of the rematches from earlier this season was the Texans and Titans. Houston had won 20-0 in the week 12 matchup that also got Cortland Finnegan a fat lip. Because the Titans had been so bad in losing six games in a row coming in, the public was all over the Texans for the most one sided action of the day. Wouldn’t you know, the Titans jumped out 21-0 in the first quarter and it never was a contest.

Rex was pretty good as the Redskins starter

Almost as weighted by public opinion was the Cowboys who opened up a 6-point favorite against the Redskins and moved up to -8 by kickoff thanks to bettors believing the “Bad” Rex Grossman would show up. For a while that looked to be the case, but he quickly became “Good Rex” as he threw for a career high four touchdowns making Mike Shanahan’s move to bench Donovan McNabb not like such a crazy idea. The Redskins still lost the game 33-30, but they got the money and helped the sports books.

Tim Tebow got the nod for the Broncos because of Kyle Orton’s brusied ribs -- or at least that’s what the team said -- and he did fairly well early on with a 40-yard TD run and 33-yard TD pass in a 39-23 loss to the Raiders giving Oakland 98 points on the year against Denver. Surprisingly, the line didn’t move much upon rumors that Tebow would start. The line just sat at 6 ½-points until eventually moving up to Raiders -8 by kickoff.

The Atlanta Falcons showed once again that they look like one of the best teams in football by simply playing good football at Seattle, nothing fancy, just winning football in every facet. This week they’ll get a chance to close the door on the division by beating the Saints who lost by six at Baltimore. Atlanta is a short 3-point favorite against the Saints, a team that has feasted on beating bad teams all season. Only Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh had winning records among the Saints 10 wins.

The bad beat of the week went to those who bet on the Jaguars getting 5-points at Indianapolis. With less than two minutes to go, it appeared that the Jaguars may have just back-doored the Colts when they scored a touchdown making it Colts 27-24. When the on-side kick came, most Jags bettors didn’t care if they recovered, they just wanted the game to end, but the game was far from being decided. The on-side kick went straight to linebacker Tyjuan Hagler who then sprinted 41 yards for the touchdown, sealing the game and a gift cover for Colts backers.

Roberts Week 12 NFL Selections: Texans and Seahawks Are the Top Plays

Here are my NFL bets for week 12:

Texans -6 ½ vs. Titans
Eagles -3 (-120) @ Chicago
Packers +2 ½ @ Atlanta
Seahawks +2 ½ vs. Chiefs
Broncos -3 ½ vs. Rams
Chargers + 3 (-120) @ Colts    








My Selections in the LVRJ NFL Challenge                  

NFL Betting Notes From Las Vegas: Bettors Bury The Sports Books

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Shopping on Black Friday just got a major boost for retailers around Nevada because there was a sudden increase in funds from people all over the state thanks to the NFL and the tide finally turning for the little guy. Sports bettors held their ground in support of their favorite teams after being pummeled by underdogs in nine of the 10 weeks, but week 11 was theirs to own.

“Sunday was the worst day of the season,” said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay, “I guess we were due.”

Due, they were, and their persistence paid off by not wavering from their strategies and waiting for the favorites to come back.

“We haven’t had that many popular teams come together all at once this season covering the spread,” explained Kornegay. “Through the season thus far, when one of the popular teams would win, then the others would lose or not cover. We kind of had the perfect storm hit us all at once this week.”

The bettors had a tough time this year with some of those perennial favorites, but it’s obvious by the results from week 11 that they hung in there with them, and it paid off.

The Eagles game was the final nail in the coffin for the sports books. The combination of seeing Michael Vick dazzle America last Monday Night and the Giants losing so badly to Dallas had bettors loving Philly. As if the Eagles game wouldn’t be bad enough alone by itself, the sports books had to look at the mounting risk from the previous 13 games on the day with all the accelerated parlay risk magnified at 10 to 1 odds and higher for several tickets.

Overall, the favorites ended up 9-5 for the day, not exactly the type of results you’d expect to bring the house down. However, it was the key games that all got there; the one sided bet games by all the regulars who laid 7-points with Pittsburgh, 13-points with the Ravens, 3-points with the Falcons and 12-points with the Saints. Throw in the Cowboys, Jaguars and Chiefs, and it truly was a perfect storm. You have to wonder what we would have called it had the Jets covered.

“It wasn’t just the sides of our most weighted games that beat us,” Kornegay added, “It was the combination of several of those teams getting there in addition to the totals going OVER. Getting lost in the shuffle the last few weeks has been how strong the OVER has been in the NFL just because the popular teams haven’t been covering."

The total went OVER in 10 of the 13 games in week 10. Week 11 saw only eight games fly over the number, but they were all pivotal games linked to the popular sides creating more jeopardy for the house. Because of this type of risk, local sports books fared much worse than strip properties where there isn’t that constant parlay card action.

The majority of the folks that struck gold this week were those people who bet a few times a week at the same time, same place, every week; the heart and soul of Las Vegas who work at positions throughout various Las Vegas casinos. These are the people who have been struggling all year to wet their beak and it’s finally nice to see those lost gratuities from the first few weeks find their way back into their home pockets.

Congrats, and keep going strong, because it's only going to get better.

Happy Thanksgiving!
After week 11, the sports books are not looking forward to the isolated three games of Thanksgiving where the three-team parlay of the Patriots, Saints and Jets will crush the them. When mixing in the totals, the possibility of paying out odds at 44 to 1 or higher on six-teamers with no out, and a large looming risk for the next three days of games makes sports book Directors a little worried on Turkey day when most of the attention should be focused on family.

The Sports Books would be happy with a split, going 3-3 for the day, which should kill most combinations and alleviate risk. However, I can’t remember the sports books ever making a killing on these Thursday games. It’s always been like the football and turkey gods have always joined and looked upon the bettor to make this weekend plentiful to where the bettor always says, “Thanks for giving us some money” to the books.

Titanic Issues

The Titans will be in trouble this week after quarterback Vince Young basically walked out on the team during their 19-16 home loss to the Redskins. After being pulled late in the game because of aggravating a torn ligament in his thumb, head coach Jeff Fisher pulled him because he didn’t think Young had control of his passes due to the injury. With Kerry Collins out due to a strained calf, Fisher’s choice was to go with Rusty Smith, the rookie from Florida Atlantic. Young got so upset that he threw his jersey and shoulder pads into the crowd, another example in a long line of immature acts by Young over his NFL career.

This week it is doubtful that Young will play against the Texans and Collins is expected to not be available either leaving the way for Smith to make his NFL debut. The difference between the two quarterbacks is about 3-points. For the sake of the fans, and maybe Fisher’s job, the smart move is to play Young if able. At the end of the season, then you dump him.

Betting Keeps the NFL Games Interesting

The Seahawks moved the ball almost at will at New Orleans, but were put into a bad situation by repeated mistakes from Marshawn Lynch who dropped two key passes and fumbled twice. The Saints were winning quite easily throughout, but the Seahawks wouldn’t go away and were on the verge of covering the 12-point spread. With just over 5 minutes to go in the game, down by 18, ball on the Saints 2-yard line, the Seahawks elected to kick a field goal instead of going for it. The spread was in question up until the final ticks of the game until the Saints eventually won 34-19, and covered. This is a further example of what fans love about the NFL, which the league doesn’t acknowledge. An otherwise meaningless game turns out to being gripping until the end, only because of the point spread.

UFL Championship Game
The Las Vegas Hilton opened their UFL Championship game odds Sunday with the Florida Tuskers a 3 ½-point favorite over the Las Vegas Locomotives. The game is scheduled for Saturday with a 9:00 am (PDT) kickoff on Versus TV.

Congrats to Zack!
Palace Station’s Race and Sports Book Manager Zack Goldberg will be moving from the property, but staying within the Station Casinos family, as he has accepted a promotion to become Director of Casino Operations for Wildfire Lanes in Henderson. The Syracuse graduate will be greatly missed by all his fellow team members and guests over at Palace Station, but will be welcomed with open arms with his new team. Goldberg’s leadership skills, intelligence and ability to keep everyone happy with his good natured attitude which were qualities that were obviously noticed by upper management. Those were also the initial qualities that got him hired at Sunset Station five years ago, where it didn’t take long for him to advance there. Three years later, Stations VP of Race and Sports Art Manteris gave him the manager job at Palace Station. The sky is the limit Mr. Goldberg, make the most of it, and congratulations!

Week 10 UFL Lines From The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book

UFL - WEEK 10

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2010
5:30 PM - HDNET
FLORIDA TUSKERS -7
OMAHA NIGHTHAWKS 43

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2010
12:30 PM - VERSUS
LAS VEGAS LOCOMOTIVES PK
HARTFORD COLONIALS 41

Week 10 of the NFL Goes the Sports Book Way, Again; 9-1 on the season

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Las Vegas Sports Books are having their best NFL season ever

Week 10 of the NFL gave the bettors a glimmer of hope for a good day with the most lopsided bet game of the day getting there and then getting a gift miracle finish in overtime for another win, but that would be all there was to cheer about from the betting public. Once the late games became final -- with every underdog covering -- the season scoreboard now reads: sports books 9, bettors 1.

It’s a shame the day ended as it did for the players because it was so promising early on. The most weighted plays in ticket counts had the Buccaneers and Jets get there, but those plays were dragged down the drain with the Colts, Vikings and Titans. For the day, the underdogs went 9-3. While we count the Jaguars as favorites -- who closed at pick’em and won -- we also count the Chiefs and Titans as favorites even though they closed at pick’em, but lost.

Outside of losing money, all might agree that week 10 was perhaps the most exciting week of the season thus far. We had a Hail Mary close out a tied game with Jacksonville beating the Texans. We saw the Buffalo Bills win their first game of the season, but blow the cover late. The Jets won on the road in overtime for the second straight week. There were nine touchdown passes thrown in the Chiefs-Broncos game and the Cowboys played inspired ball for the first time all season for their new coach.

The biggest roar of the day in the sports books was the Jets winning with .16 seconds left in overtime. The Jets were laying 3-points (-120) all week and closed at -3 ½ (EVEN) by kickoff. They were a very popular choice with the small money and it was the last of the early games still playing. With such little time remaining and the ball at the Browns 37, most everyone believed their bets were in trouble with a long field goal attempt sure to come that would probably not make be made and even it did make it, most of the day of game bettors would lose by the hook. But after a few missed tackles by the Browns, Mark Sanchez’ quick slant to Santonio Holmes turned into a touchdown giving the bettors a gift cover.

The Jets have the look of being, perhaps, the best team in football right now because they seem to win all the close games. By playoff time, this team is going to battle tested like no other. The Jets are now 7-2 and in control of their division because of a head to head win over the Patriots. In three of their last four games they have won thrillers with Sanchez being the one coming up with the big plays when needed most.

The Cowboys were the most heavily bet team with the Sharps pushing the spread from the Giants being 14-point opening favorites to -11 ½ and -12 by kickoff. The small money liked the Giants and almost felt like they were getting a deal by laying less than two touchdowns against a team that had packed it in. Yes, it is a tough divisional battle, but look at what the Cowboys have dome their last two games. They packed it in and showed no pride for the star on their helmet and the backup quarterback has looked terrible. How is a new coach going to make that much of a difference?

Jason Garrett obviously made a huge difference as the Cowboys thoroughly dominated arguably the best team in the NFC, winning 33-20. There wasn’t a moment of that game where it looked like the Giants were going to be able to get back in the game. Jon Kitna may have played his best career game and the overall Cowboys game plan was executed with perfection.

Poor Wade Phillips, sitting at home, watching the game, still hurt by being let go and he watches his team finally play the way they’re capable of. Maybe Phillips was the virus that needed to be exterminated, but the overall element that was there with Phillips is still there with his entire coaching staff. It’s only one game. Chances are, the Cowboys go back to being their normal self to close out the year. I’d be hard pressed to find a way they can be 5-11 by seasons end.

Remember when the Steelers started out 3-0 and we all thought that when Ben Roethlisberger came back, coupled with that awesome defense, that they would be the team to beat in the NFL. It seems like so long ago because the Steelers have looked ragged at times with much of it coming from the quarterback play. They seemed like a better team when featuring Rashard Mendenhall and their running game.

The Sunday night game with the Patriots and Steelers was a game the sports books had all kinds of extended risk on from the earlier 11 games. After the final game was posted, leaving only the Sunday night game, the risk forced a move on the game from Steelers -5 ½ to -4. Had it not been for the Patriots winning to the over, the sports books would have had maybe their third best Sunday of the season.

And how about Tom Brady? Did he show what being a leader is all about? Does this guy command some respect of what? After being knocked down on a stalled drive, Brady went on a tirade on the sidelines aimed at his entire offensive squad. Because he rarely shows that type of emotion, the players may have been caught off guard a bit, but the rant proved to be pivotal as the Patriots played better from then on.

The Dolphins ruined a lot of bets for the public by beating the Titans 29-17 and did so by using three quarterbacks. Chad Pennington’s return to the lineup didn’t have the same affect he’s had in the past when he twice won comeback player of the year. He lasted only one series and his shoulder injury could be career ending. Chad Henne took over and played well, but he got hurt too leaving the fourth quarter to Tyler Thigpen who lead the Dolphins to close out the victory.

And what do you do with the Broncos now? They have shown glimpses of being a very good team while also looking like one of the worst in two of their losses. After a bye week, Kyle Orton came out with a vengeance against the Chiefs giving the Broncos a 35-0 lead before Kansas City could even blink. It looked like a reverse cycle of what the Raiders did to Denver a few weeks ago. Getting 9 ½-points in San Diego could be tempting for the Monday night game.

This week we have eight games favored by 6-points or more with four games hovering around -3. It looks like a pretty tough card filled with some interesting matchups led by the always interesting duel between Brady and Peyton Manning.

Week 7 UFL Lines From The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book

UFL - WEEK 7

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2010

5:00 PM - HDNET
LAS VEGAS LOCOMOTIVES 38
OMAHA NIGHTHAWKS -4

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2010

8:00 PM - VERSUS
HARTFORD COLONIALS 39
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAIN LIONS -2.5

Las Vegas Sports Books Sweep College and Pro Football Weekends

By Micah Roberts
Gaming Today Las Vegas

Sunday was the best day of the NFL season for many of the Las Vegas sports books, but it wasn’t even the best day of the Holiday weekend for some which happened the day before on Saturday. That’s right, the rich get richer and the poorer get poorer for the fifth straight week. Not much has changed from the day that Christopher Columbus himself supposedly discovered America.

Between the sports books beating every major decision in Saturday’s college action and a slew of outright underdog winners in the NFL, the two days came close to being one of the best combined weekend wins ever for Las Vegas sports books. The figures varied somewhat based on being a strip or locals property with the major differences being the extraordinary handle and win the local books get with parlay cards.

A good weekend of normal parlay card hold -- pre-2010 NFL season -- would be considered holding 30%. After Sunday‘s games all washed, most books were holding over 70% of card handle.

Saturday’s most weighted public college teams like Alabama, Florida, Stanford, Oregon and Arizona all failed to win or cover setting the stage up for Sunday’s NFL action. Most of the sports books anticipated week 5 being the bettors turn and braced for the inevitable cycle of fairness, but it didn’t happen. The underdog trend continued and actually grew stronger with the dogs going 9-4.

The sports book Directors aren’t complaining, but they are concerned about how the regular Joe bettors can keep coming back firing at the same pace after getting beat once again. This weeks handle was spurred by all the three-day weekend visitors, but what about next week when the dust settles and it’s just the regular crowd again. The five straight weeks of bettors losing in the NFL is a streak to start the year like never before.

This season truly has been amazing and has thrown a wrench into just about everyone’s handicapping tendencies. I suggested last week to stay the course and that things should all cycle around again, but I’m less confident now and I’m now saying that it may be time go outside the box. It’s apparent that anything can happen and that all teams are capable of winning anywhere at anytime.

For instance, why even take points anymore when you can just take the money line and cash in. That’s what happened Sunday when nine of the underdogs won outright -- no points needed -- with only four favorites winning.

During the early games, things didn’t seem so out of line just because the two largest spreads got there and the underdogs that won weren’t that big of a surprise. The Ravens and Colts were each 7-point favorites and covered while the Bengals lost as a 6 ½-point home favorite to the Buccaneers. It was what happened in the late games that threw the entire week for a loop when all three large underdogs won straight up and ultimately killed the bettors chances.

The Saints, Chargers and Cowboys weren’t just ordinary favorites, either, they each had strong 7-point spreads. In all three games it came down to the final minute to decide the winner, but covering the spread was never really in doubt for each of their opponents. The major question was whether the dogs could pull off the upsets, and they did.

The Cardinals 30-20 win over the Saints might have been the most improbable of the day just because of rookie Max Hall starting the game against the Super Bowl champs. Even worse for Saints fans -- that puts their season in perspective -- is that the Cardinals didn’t have a rushing or passing touchdown for the game, yet managed to put up 30 points. The Saints were held under 25 points for the fifth time this year, one more than they had the entire 2009 season.

The Chargers and Cowboys each passed for over 400 yards, but made key turnovers and mistakes that they were never able to recover from. The Raiders blocked two punts and forced two San Diego turnovers inside the red zone, and that was only in the first quarter, but it set the tempo for the rest of the game.

Probably the Cowboys biggest mistake -- one that won’t show up in the box score -- is that Wade Phillips is still the head coach. 12 ill-timed penalties for 133 yards kept the Titans in position all game long to keep the Cowboys defense off balance, and it‘s all a reflection of their coach and his lackadaisical approach. The best thing Jerry Jones could do is get a coach who screams loud at players, levies fines and suspensions to get that extra 15% missing from their individual games.

Cowboy fans must have a hard time watching Phillips show no emotion when his players do something dumb. At one point you could actually read Phillips lips as he was talking into the head set where he said, “What just happened” after another penalty.

The biggest public games of the day were the Falcons, who covered, the Packers, Saints and Chargers. That would have been a rough four-team parlay for the sports books, but they beat them down with only Falcons getting there.

Some of the Sharp plays of the day went the books way as well. The Ravens covered, but the Bills and Panthers each lost. All three of those games saw significant action on game day and rose by a point-and-a-half each. The three plays all made sense on paper where the spread was maybe deflated a little to catch up to the crazy adjusted ratings of today’s NFL parity.

The Panthers went to 0-5 on the season joining the Bills and 49ers as the only winless teams after the Lions smashed the Rams to get out of that group. A Panthers bettor must be shaking his head wondering how it’s possible to lose a game when the starting quarterback throws four interceptions as back-up Todd Collins did for the Bears.

Let’s hope it gets easier this week where we have two double digit favorites and only three others that are a touchdown favorite or above. You’ve got San Diego on the road again where they are now 0-3, Ben Roethlisberger making his season debut against the Browns and the Packers hosting Miami with Aaron Rodgers on concussion status.

The game that stands out the most is Denver getting over 3-points at home against the Jets. After watching Kyle Orton move the ball effectively against the Ravens top ranked pass defense in Baltimore, I am now a believer that his offense game can’t be stopped by anyone. I’d look for a high scoring game that the Broncos should hang around in and then maybe get some Mile High Magic near the end.

Good Luck and make week six yours to own!

Mathews and Moreno Head List of Injured Players Doubtful For Week 3 NFL Action

By Micah Roberts

Here’s the latest NFL injury news regarding key players heading into this weekends games beginning with the running backs:

The Broncos Knowshon Moreno is out for Sunday’s game against the Colts thanks to some hamstring issues. Starting in his place will be veteran Correll Buckhalter or Laurence Maroney. Buckhalter is a steady back who has filled in nicely for Moreno and there shouldn’t be much of a drop off.

Chargers rookie Ryan Mathews is listed as doubtful and Mike Tolbert will get the nod at Seattle this week. There are a lot of expectations placed on Mathews, but we haven’t seen what he can thus far into the regular season. Tolbert came in last week and did a nice job of moving the chains, scoring and holding onto the ball, something that has haunted Mathews early on.

Beanie Wells should see his first action of the year this week against the Raiders cutting into Tim Hightower’s time. Also, Atlanta’s Michael Turner and Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew are both listed as probable and expected to play. Michael Bush is also expected to return for the Raiders Sunday, but how much is still a question since Darren McFadden had a great game last week.

Key receivers that have some questions this week include Pierre Garcon, who is listed as questionable with hamstring problems, and Hines Ward calf issue has him listed as probable at Tampa Bay.

Jake Delhomme is still nursing a sore ankle and is doubtful for the Browns game at Baltimore meaning Seneca Wallace will likely start again. Injuries didn’t force new starters on four teams this week, just simple poor play. Bruce Gradkowski will start for Oakland, Michael Vick for Philadelphia, Ryan Fitzpatrick for Buffalo and Jimmy Clausen at Carolina. Shaun Hill also gets the nod in Detroit again as Matt Stafford will be out for another four weeks.

On the defensive side, Darrelle Revis is out for the Jets Sunday night game at Miami. It must have really hurt when Randy Moss scored easily on him -- one handed -- last Sunday. The Broncos are all banged up on Defense with several starters being questionable led by Champ Bailey. Peyton Manning is not the type of player a hurt secondary wants to face.  

FANTASY FOOTBALL: Kyle Orton's Stock Rising As He Continues To Play Well

By Micah Roberts
Las Vegas Review-Journal

One of the biggest questions coming into the season for the Denver Broncos was how the offense would make up for the loss of wide receiver Brandon Marshall.

Losing a playmaker who caught more than 100 passes in each of the past three seasons was perceived by many as making the team weaker, with a rough 2010 in store. However, the transition of life after Marshall has been smooth and in some ways makes the Broncos more dangerous thanks to the improved play of quarterback Kyle Orton.

Many fantasy owners passed over Orton until late in their drafts with the modest goal of hoping he could have a decent game in the weeks their starting quarterbacks had byes. But with the way Orton looked throughout the preseason and the first two weeks of the regular season, he's going to be pressing many owners into starting him sooner than those bye weeks.

Through two games, only five quarterbacks have more than Orton's 602 yards passing and a rating higher than his 103.9. He's also tied for eighth in the NFL with 46 completions and has thrown three touchdowns with only one interception. While NFL ratings don't necessarily equate to fantasy points, it does show that Orton is moving the ball efficiently, which has equated to the team having success on offense.

Orton's evolution began last season, when he jelled quickly with first-year Broncos coach Josh McDaniels' passing scheme. Despite the tough task of taking over for the popular Jay Cutler, Orton still completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 3,802 yards and 21 touchdowns, with only 12 interceptions. He wasn't flashy and didn't produce any huge fantasy totals for any one game, but he was a consistent earner.

This year during the preseason, there was a considerable change in Orton. He had a confident swagger and for the first time in his career had the look of being an NFL quarterback who truly was in charge. His passes were crisper than ever, and he carried that attitude through the Broncos' first two regular-season games.

The beneficiary of Orton's rise in confidence is a nice group of underrated receivers who many fantasy owners still are trying to gauge. The offensive system has plenty of balls going around, but the passes are going to several receivers rather than the big bulk that went to Marshall last year. Eddie Royal leads the team with 13 receptions, but rookie first-round draft pick Demaryius Thomas looks to be one who should flourish the most, and he's available in several fantasy leagues.

Thomas fell under the radar because no one saw him play. A broken foot kept the former Georgia Tech star out of the preseason, and he missed Denver's season opener at Jacksonville. But in Week 2, everyone saw what he was capable of by catching eight passes in nine targets for 97 yards and a touchdown. With the way the 6-foot-3-inch, 229-pound rookie caught a few of Orton's passes Sunday against the Seahawks, you couldn't help but think of the similarities between him and Marshall.

Thomas has played only one game, but with the way Orton looks and the potential Thomas brings, he is a must-buy this week and could be used immediately as your No. 3 wide receiver.

As for Orton, this might be the week to give him a shot in the starting lineup in what looks to be a high-scoring home game against the Colts. By no means should you rest one of the elite quarterbacks, but if you have the likes of Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning or worse, Orton could be an upgrade in Week 3.

■ SAINTS RUNNING BACKS -- With Reggie Bush expected to miss up to six weeks because of a broken leg, someone is going to have to fill his role in New Orleans' offense.
History has shown that the Saints hardly miss a beat offensively without him. In the 12 games Bush has missed during his career, the Saints have gone 8-4 and averaged 33.3 points a game with others filling his role. The candidates to keep an eye on this week are Ladell Betts and rookie Chris Ivory.

■ BILLS' LYNCH -- Marshawn Lynch has been a popular buy this week because of rumors that the Packers might have interest in trading for the Bills back. If Brandon Jackson doesn't work out in the next few weeks as Ryan Grant's replacement, the rumors could become reality. Lynch's style of running is similar to Grant's, and he would be a great replacement if the trade happens. The possibilities are worth taking the gamble on Lynch now.

Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director who covers all sports for multiple publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.

Bills Lynch Could Be Headed to Green Bay If Rodgers Has His Way

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) - Buffalo Bills running back Marshawn Lynch can't escape talk that he's on the trading block.

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Shortly after Lynch informed reporters Thursday he didn't have any thoughts regarding his status, cornerback Drayton Florence popped by his teammate's locker with what he jokingly referred to as breaking news.

``Hey, you know you're getting traded, right?'' Florence said with a big smile. ``It just went across the bottom of the screen. Me and you, package deal, baby.''

Lynch could only shake his head and laugh.

``So we're out of this thing, huh?'' Lynch said, before noting that Florence had spoiled the flow of the interview taking place.

It's been that type of week for Lynch, who realizes he can't control his future beyond attempting to find a niche in a crowded backfield as the Bills prepare to play at Green Bay on Sunday.

``All I know is I'm taking handoffs from Fitz or Trent or Brohm,'' Lynch said, referring to the team's three quarterbacks. ``That's pretty much all I've got to say about that.''

Others, meanwhile, are doing the talking for Lynch.

Speculation of Lynch being traded was raised a day earlier when Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers said he'd urge the team to acquire Lynch. The two played together at California, and the Packers are in need of a running back after losing Ryan Grant to a season-ending ankle injury.

``Bring him on,'' Rodgers said when asked what he'd tell the team's front office about Lynch. ``I think when you give a guy a change of scenery, and a guy like that who might feel like he has something to prove ... I think that can only help him feel comfortable and see a lot of production.''

Packers general manager Ted Thompson isn't known for making splashy moves out of desperation and doesn't like to part with future draft picks. Without Grant, the Packers are left with Brandon Jackson, the only other halfback currently on their roster, and fullback John Kuhn.

The Bills have maintained they have no intention of trading Lynch, even after the player skipped the team's first 12 voluntary minicamp practices this past spring.

Bills coach Chan Gailey on Wednesday insisted he's comfortable with the team's three-back rotation, rounded out by first-round pick C.J. Spiller and former starter Fred Jackson.

``I know everybody's got opinions on what's right, and we feel like having the three we've got right now is a very good situation for us,'' Gailey said. ``I know that Green Bay wishes they had one more than they had.''

Lynch lost his starting job to Jackson last season, and now ranks third on the depth chart. Though he was open to being traded this offseason, Lynch is in no position to speculate while knowing that decision is out of his hands.

``If they say you've got to go, what am I going to do, tell them no?'' Lynch said. ``If they say I'm not going anywhere, then come on, let's continue to build on this thing and let's get better.''

The Bills' running attack produced a dud, managing just 50 yards on a mere 17 carries in a 15-10 loss to Miami on Sunday. Lynch had the longest run, a 13-yarder, while Spiller was bottled up for 6 yards on seven carries.

That's not the production anticipated from a running back trio that was supposed to be the offense's strength.

Gailey was disappointed and added he's re-emphasizing the team's running attack entering this weekend.

``We've got to block better and run north and south, and not have negative plays,'' Gailey said.

Lynch was disappointed in how all three running backs failed to get into a groove due to a lack of carries.

``I'm not saying what we should've done or what could've been done to be better,'' Lynch said. ``All I know, is we just have to do something to get it back on track.''

---

Second Season of UFL Kicks Off Saturday - UFL Betting Lines

Locos quarterback Tim Rattay at a recent Loco's practice

This Saturday kicks off the second season of the six team UFL. Since Las Vegas has a team. we'll keep half of one eye on the games. Plus, you can also bet the games at some sports books. Here's a look at this weeks lines courtesy of the las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

Saturday, September 18, 2010

11:30 am (PDT)
Sacramento  -3       O/U
Hartford                   40

8:00 pm (PDT)
Florida                    O/U
Las Vegas  -2 1/2     42

Check out the rosters, you'll be surprised by how many good former NFL players there are in the UFL.

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NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Line Moves; All Games 6 1/2 Points or Less

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

I love the NFL schedule this week because it’s filled with parity where no game has a spread higher than -6 ½. Between the games where we have the bad teams playing each other and higher rated teams playing on the road against lesser rated teams, it makes for a nice mix of action and differing opinions. In situations like these, the Las Vegas sportsbooks usually have an edge just because they can chop up all the parlay’s giving them a high overall hold percentage.

However, just because a spread is low, you still can’t stop the perception of the public which generally makes or breaks the sports books weekend. On Sunday, five of the 13 games already have strong public support.

It’s a tough sell telling the public that the Steelers and Eagles are decent plays, despite being at home, with quarterbacks they aren’t comfortable with.

The first week has seen a limited amount of sharp action as far as line movements go because the lines have been up and bet into at most books since April 29. From week two on, we’ll see much more action on Monday’s centered around the key numbers. Every game this week is currently sitting on or around the key numbers of 3, 4, 6 & 7, which is highly unusual; no dead numbers at all this week.

While there hasn’t been a lot of sharp money come in on the NFL games this week, the small action is piling up and has a few teams weighted pretty heavily in ticket counts. Should teams like the Dolphins, Falcons, Colts, Titans, Packers and Cowboys all cover Sunday, it’s going to be a rough week for the house which then leads into a real tough position on Monday with everyone already having the three-teamer of the Ravens, Chargers and the game over tied into Sunday's action.

The few moves that did come in this week was action on the Panthers at +7, the Redskins +4, and the Seahawks at +3. With “3“ being so key, most books have either gone to the Seahawks +3 (-120) or the 49ers -2 ½ (-120). The same situation has occurred with money on the Browns at +3.

I love debating the theory putting added money (-120) on and around the number “3”. While my theory is wrong every five or six years when the “3’s” do land on the number at a high rate, my contention -- which is supported by the numbers -- is that over the long haul a book will fare much better by moving on and off the number at a flat price just because the sheer volume. Juicing out each number which will pad the overall win enough to offset when the “3” does land and the book gets sided. From a competitive standpoint, a book figures to get all the action at their shop at flat money -- increasing volume -- when everyone else is -120, which is essentially a closed sign for many bettors on those type of games.

Last season 15% of all games landed “3” and the year prior it was a low 10%. It is annually the highest percentage of any margin of victory in the NFL, however, not all of those games are won by the favored side and not all of those are games where the spread was “3”.

The one book in Las Vegas who consistently uses flat numbers is the South Point. They currently have Tampa Bay and San Francisco at 2 ½ flat.

On the college side of the board, there have been kinds of moves from the Monday openers. Oklahoma State moved from -10 to -14 against Troy. The move doesn’t stand as strong as some of the others just because it takes less money to move the number since it is an added game with limited wagering compared to the others.

It’s no surprise to see a MAC game be one of the largest movers of the week. Ohio opened a 7-point home favorite to Toledo and the number has jumped all the way to -10.

One of the better games of the week has Florida State visiting Oklahoma with both sharp and public support for the Seminoles after last weeks performance. The Sooners opened a 9-point home favorite and have been pushed down to -6 ½.

Other game that have seen some sharp moves include the sides of Georgia Tech on the road, Army, Kent State, UNLV, Tennessee, San Diego State and UCLA.

The two feature games of the week, Miami-Ohio State and Penn State-Alabama, saw early action on the dogs. According to a few Las Vegas sports book ticket counts, the public loves the Crimson Tide but are a bit skeptical with the Buckeyes.

That's all for now, enjoy all the games and good luck at the betting window.

Las Vegas Sports Books Bracing Themselves For Busy First Week of NFL Football

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com 

Week 1 of the NFL is finally here and there might be no place happier than Las Vegas because of the tremendous spike in business drawn from the allure of betting the games or playing contests. Traffic coming through the doors by locals is fluid throughout the week as they check their standings, grab their sheets, make a few early bets and even wander off to other areas of the casino trying their hand at black jack, poker and the machines. Visitors from out of state flow through Las Vegas with their buddies for a party atmosphere that they just can’t recreate at home, or their local bar, while watching the games.

To prepare for the intense rush of what’s about to happen this week, the Las Vegas Sportsbook Directors have run through their annual check lists to ensure their operation goes as smooth as ever. Plenty of staffing to accommodate the type of crowds not seen since last football season, check! The book is scrubbed clean with all the TV’s in perfect operation, check! All the betting machines are fully operational and checked by the company leased from, check! The entire staff is versed in departmental policy and procedure, check! All set, ready, hut-hut!

This is the book’s time to shine and contribute to the casino operations cash flow like no other juncture of the year. The book during football season is the one variable of a casino that can actually help a casino hit their budgeted numbers exceeding expectations. In this economic climate, many casinos don’t come close to hitting their monthly or quarterly budgets as many heads of the companies tell their finance people to put lofty numbers on the green sheets in an attempt inspire and make them work harder to achieve the goal, but ultimately they come up short which in turn affects each department head’s bonus.

With football around, the possibilities of hitting budget are there and every Director from other departments all know it and want to root intensely for what the house needs on game day. All it takes is a couple big weekends. In order to get those big weekends, the sports books need parity in the league where there are no sacrificial lambs that the public can keep betting against -- no matter what the number is -- and keep cashing tickets.

Last season we had the dirty half-dozen that the public kept betting against all season where the books had to rapidly increase point-spreads, despite what the ratings said, in an attempt to create action on the ugly sides. The Rams, Buccaneers, Browns, Chiefs, Raiders and Lions all contributed to a rough start out of the gate for the books and all culminated in the perfect storm of Week 7, the sports books’ biggest losing day ever.

Despite finding sharp money on the inflated lines of those ugly teams throughout the weeks, nothing could stop the massive public pile-up betting against those teams. And when the public bets, the majority of the action is parlays paying 6/1, 10/1, 20/1 and 40/1 odds; numbers that can’t be recouped no matter how much straight action comes in from the sharps on the other side.

“Last year was the biggest disparity I have ever seen in the NFL from the have’s and the have-nots,” said Boyd Gaming’s Race and Sports Director Bob Scucci, “What we saw in the first seven weeks last year was some really, really good teams and really bad teams with not a lot in between and we had to do some major adjusting in the numbers along the way to compensate for each side.”

Things ultimately evened out over the course of the year, but it was still a disappointing season for most just because of September and October’s win being so far below expectations.

This season looks to be a little different where it looks that at five of those ugly teams from last year are improved. When saying improved, it doesn’t mean they are close to playoff contention but rather they are close to staying where their true rating is and should be able to be competitive within the point spread.

“From what I have seen so far, it doesn’t appear that a group of teams like we saw last year will be as bad and those teams that the public love such as the Patriots don’t look to be as good, “ said Scucci, “Even the Saints aren’t getting the type of attention that a Super Bowl winner usually gets.”

While it’s only preseason to go by, the Rams looked much more improved with Sam Bradford even though as a rookie, he’s sure to have kitchen sinks thrown at him by opposing team’s defenses. They can’t possibly be any worse than the 1-15 team they were last year and Bradford still has one of the best running backs in the league with Steven Jackson. Bradford will struggle at times, no doubt about it, but he has the look of being more like the successful rookie’s of Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco than Tim Couch or Jamarcus Russell.

The Buccaneers have a much improved defense and really came together down the stretch last season playing competitive football. The question out of the gate rests with their quarterbacks. Josh Freeman didn’t get a lot of pre-season play but he’s got some nice weapons to work with down field that should create more big plays than we saw last year.

The Browns had a good preseason in terms of just looking cohesive on offense lead by veteran Jake Delhomme. They were one of the worst offensive teams over the first 10 weeks of the season, but that should change this season as the Browns will score some points and not put their defense in such a position that they are always down.

The Raiders have the fortune of finally winning their battle with owner Al Davis who demanded the starting of Russell each week. Both Jason Campbell and Bruce Gradkowski can move the ball and make the simple passes Russell couldn’t. They also show up for film sessions and can read defenses. They already have a very good defense and should be very competitive in most games.

The Lions have all the looks of being drastically improved, both offensively and defensively. Matt Stafford looks likes he’s going to evolve into one of the NFL’s best and the addition of Jahvid Best could really help make some big plays. The defensive line is about as good as any in the league which should make it a tough for opposing quarterbacks any time facing Detroit.

The one team that doesn’t look to be changed too much is the Chiefs. They still have a floundering Matt Cassel at quarterback and much of the same team on defense that allowed 34 points or more in six games last season. They could be the one team picked on all year by bettors that get there regularly. There‘s always got to be one each year, just hopefully for the sportsbook’s sake, not six teams like last season.

FANTASY FOOTBALL: Don't Be Averse to Targeting Elite Quarterback early

By MICAH ROBERTS
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

There are several strategies on when and where to draft your quarterback, and most of those are changed and/or compromised based on the players available players when your time comes.
It seems inviting to get your top running backs in place because of the limited number of them. Inevitably, by the time the draft snakes its way back to you, such top quarterbacks as Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning probably will be gone.

It's a tough choice that has to be made, but should it be that tough? Think about it: The top quarterbacks are about as consistent from year to year as it gets in fantasy football. Tom Brady getting hurt in the first game of 2008 put a sour taste in the mouths of many fantasy players because, in many drafts, he was the overall No. 1 pick after throwing a record 50 touchdown passes in 2007. But fantasy falloffs and tragedies such as Brady's are rare with the top QBs.

Drafting Titans running back Chris Johnson as the first pick overall, even if he does have some drop-off from last season, is a no-brainer. Taking outstanding Vikings running back Adrian Peterson next seems like a wise choice because he figures to get a lot of scores in a good offense. But after that, the safe choice in taking a player who will be your team's foundation -- with little variation of what is expected -- would be an elite quarterback.

The upper-echelon quarterback is the safe play with little risk. Here's a look at some quarterbacks who should equal or better their 2009 numbers:

■ Aaron Rodgers, Packers: He improved dramatically in all passing statistics during his second year as a starter and is expected to be better in 2010. You'd be hard-pressed to lose any argument making him the first quarterback selected. He's being selected eighth overall right after New Orleans' Drew Brees, but gambling with the likes of Frank Gore, Michael Turner and Ray Rice before Rodgers seems too big a risk. Projection: No. 4 pick, 4,500 yards, 35 TDs.

■ Peyton Manning, Colts: His 12 seasons mirror each other statistically. With the exception of his magical year in 2004, when he threw 49 touchdown passes, Manning is about as machinelike as it gets. He stays healthy, throws for at least 30 touchdowns and has been the most bankable fantasy player since 2000. He's being drafted with the 10th overall pick. Projection: No. 8 pick, 4,300 yards, 32 TDs.

■ Matt Schaub, Texans: If drafting a running back or Houston wide receiver Andre Johnson in the first round, Schaub is a must-take in the second. Last year he led the league in passing yards at 298 per game and had 29 touchdown passes. The Schaub-Johnson hook-up on your team could be profitable. He's being drafted with the 20th pick. Projection: No. 16 pick, 4,700 yards, 30 TDs.
■ Philip Rivers, Chargers: He threw for fewer touchdowns in 2009 (28) than the year before (34) but increased his yardage. Some might be skeptical of Rivers with his top wideout, Vincent Jackson, suspended for three games and not in camp, but don't be. Rivers will throw a lot no matter who is out there. He's being drafted with the 30th overall pick. Projection: No. 25 pick, 4,200 yards, 30 TDs.

■ Eli Manning, Giants: If within the first six rounds you find yourself stockpiled with running backs and receivers while everyone else has taken a quarterback, Manning is your guy. He had career highs in yardage (4,021) and touchdown passes (27) last year and yet is being taken as the 12th quarterback with the 70th pick. He has a nice stable of receivers to target. Projection: No. 66 pick, 4,200 yards, 28 TDs.

■ Carson Palmer, Bengals: He's worth taking a shot as a backup with the possibility of what might happen with all the new toys he has to throw to. The Bengals will look to run first and use the same formula that got them to the playoffs last year, but having Terrell Owens deep along with rookies Jermaine Gresham over the middle and Jordan Shipley underneath create possibilities that could make Palmer surprise. Projection: No. 80 pick, 3,600 yards, 25 TDs.

Micah Roberts has been making player proposition odds for Las Vegas sports books since 1995 and currently covers all sports from a betting perspective for various publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.

Click Here for a complete list of Roberts Fantasy Football Rankings

Receivers The Most Plentiful Of Positions in This Years Fantasy Football Draft

By Micah Roberts
Las Vegas Review-Journal

If you decide to load up on running backs and take a quarterback in the early rounds of your NFL fantasy draft, don't worry. You'll still be able to get a quality wide receiver.

While there's a sharp drop-off at running back and quarterback after the top 10 at each position, the talent pool is deep at wide receiver and tight end. Most teams have a go-to receiver, as opposed to the running back-by-committee several teams are using. Some pass-happy offenses -- Green Bay, Houston, Indianapolis and New Orleans -- will have two or three receivers who post quality numbers.

The names at the top are easy to recite: Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald. But the key is to identify players who are primed for breakout seasons that often make the difference in your fantasy league.

Last year it was Miles Austin and Sidney Rice, who were late-round picks at best before posting top-10 seasons at their position. Austin made 81 receptions for 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns for the Cowboys, and Rice had 83 catches for 1,312 yards and eight TDs for the Vikings.

In mock drafts this year, Austin is being selected anywhere from 24th to 30th overall, but he should be going higher. He's likely to put up statistics that rival those of Johnson, the Texans star who is the unanimous No. 1 receiver. In the Cowboys' dynamic offense, Austin should be good for about 95 receptions for 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Rice is another story. The Vikings standout had hip surgery this week and is expected to miss half the season.
The Bears, Redskins and Bills are running new systems, and some players on those teams have great value.
In Chicago, where Mike Martz is running the offense, Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu both are being drafted around 120th overall. They should be going a round or two earlier.

Mike Shanahan is the Redskins' new coach and Donovan McNabb their new quarterback, and the offense should be much better because of them. Wide receiver Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley should benefit most.

Chan Gailey takes over as coach of the Bills, and nobody is happier about that than wide receiver Lee Evans. Gailey loves to spread the field with downfield passes, the type of offense to which the speedy Evans is best suited.

Three other receivers who are undervalued:

Jabar Gaffney, Broncos: He has become quarterback Kyle Orton's go-to guy during the preseason after the trade of Brandon Marshall. Remember, Gaffney caught 14 passes for 213 yards in last season's finale. He should have a career year in Denver's pass-first, ask-questions-later offense.

Dexter McCluster, Chiefs: The speedy rookie will line up at running back and wide receiver. Think Percy Harvin from last year with more carries and targets.

Bernard Berrian, Vikings: His stock has risen considerably after Rice's surgery and the uncertainty of Harvin, who has missed most of camp because of migraine headaches.

Click Here To Get List of Roberts Top-50 ranked Wr's and Top-15 TE's.

Micah Roberts has been making player proposition odds for Las Vegas sports books since 1995 and currently covers all sports from a betting perspective for multiple publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.

Las Vegas Football Betting Notes Through Week 2 Of Pre-Season

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

NFL Pre-Season Notes

Week 2 of the pre-season saw the largest line move yet with the Giants opening as a pick’em at home against the Steelers. Once all the news started filtering in about Ben Roethlisberger starting, Eli Manning and back-up Jim Sorgi not playing, the Steelers quickly rose to a 6-point favorite. Giants third-stringer Rhett Bomar took all the snaps, but couldn’t overcome the solid second half play of Steelers back-ups Byron Leftwich and Dennis Dixon. The Steelers won 24-17 negating any possible middle opportunities with such a large line movement.

The total in the Steelers game also dropped 3-points from the opener down to 33 ½. The highest total of the week was the Texans and Saints opener of 40 ½, which was then bet to 41 ½ by game time. Pre-season totals over 40 are rarely seen, but in this case, both the odds makers and players were right as the Saints won 38-20.  

Overall, the sports books did very well with Saturday’s 11 pre-season games. All the action is relatively small, but the small money added up when the players parlays went bye-bye thanks to the Steelers, Rams and Lions winning.  

This weekends games will be as close to regular season games that we’ll see during pre-season. Week 3 is where actual first-string game plans are put into action with all the starters playing through at least half-time. Some of the back-ups and hopefuls to make the team even perform better in the second half as they are now more acclimated within their team system. The effort and hustle of these players during the second half can rarely be questioned during week 3 because most are fighting for their livelihood and dreams of making it in the NFL. For many, this is their last chance to impress, if not for their team, then for all the others who may see something in their style of play.    

I never take pre-season to seriously from abetting approach, but I always look for certain things that stand out and are transferable to the regular season. I like to find the nuggets of gold with the second and third string players while watching the second half of games. I also like to look the early rotations and cohesions of the first-strings play, not necessarily scoring points, but the play calling and the affective nature of those attempting to execute from the linemen, prominent new players and who the quarterback targets.  

Through three pre-season games thus far, the Bengals have looked to get three new receivers involved and acclimated into their offense and they all look better than Chad Ochocinco who has only three receptions and isn’t being looked at by quarterback Carson Palmer. Terrell Owens (9 receptions), Jordan Shipley (8) -- a Wes Welker clone, and tight-end Jermaine Gresham (6) have all looked better than the reality TV star.

The Lions might be a good play to over five wins at local sports books just because of their defensive line with the additions of Kyle Vanden Bosch and second overall pick Ndamukong Suh. In their first two pre-season game the Lions D-line have absolutely beat up on the Steelers and Broncos O-lines. With an improved and more confident Matt Stafford not having to play behind so much due to pressure on the opposing quarterback, the Lions could be a thorn in the side to the NFC North playoff hopefuls.

The Raiders are another team that could be worth a shot at betting over on season total wins at six. It’s been kind of nice seeing the Raiders being able to move the ball after three years of Jamarcus Russell’s game. With Jason Campbell throwing affectively -- and smart -- all over the field and Michael Bush’s hard running, the Raiders offense should be vastly improved to go along with an already stout defense.

I had initially thought that the Bears would be much better under Mike Martz offensive system and almost had visions of Jay Cutler doing some of the things Kurt Warner did, but the combination of inexperienced receivers and a bad offensive line should see the team mimic last years floundering squad. I would look for the under eight wins on the season that the books have posted not only because of the bad Bears offense and defense look, but how vastly improved the Lions within their division appear as well.

I’m still undecided about how the Broncos will fare this year. I’m looking at seven wins while most of the sports books have them at 7 ½ for the season. However, Kyle Orton has looked to be one of the more impressive quarterbacks of pre-season. He looks more confident than he has at any stage of his career, including Purdue. Through two pre-season games at just over three quarters of play, Orton has a 116.5 QB rating with 4 TD passes. His favorite target thus -- taking over for Brandon Marshall -- far has been Jabar Gaffney, a big possession receiver who had 6 catches for 98 yards against Detroit Saturday. For fantasy players, Gaffney could be a nice steal at the late rounds of your draft.

Palms Pigskin Payoff

Last week I falsely stated that the Palms “Pigskin Payout” no points contest had a total of $100,000 prize money that they’ll be giving away. That amount given away in the contest would have still been an overlay based on the amount of entry fees taken in, which won’t come close to that figure for the single property run contest. Race and Sports Director Fred Crespi notified me of the error and informed me that the total amount given away in the contest is a whopping $300,000.

$300,000 is a lot of cheese to be given away by one property that likely will take in only about 20% of that amount in actual entry fees which should make this one of the most attractive contests in the city for anyone to play.

$10,000 will be given away as weekly prize money for picking the most winners. The added bonus this year is that they have split the first 16 weeks into quarters with the winner of each quarter winning $20,000. This format should do as intended and keep players coming back all season and not fade out just because they fell in the tank after four weeks. It’s like a new mini-season every four weeks.

LVSC and Kenny White Part Ways

One of the most respected sports betting minds in Las Vegas over the last two decades is no longer head of operations at Las Vegas Sports Consultants. Kenny White has been creating the initial Las Vegas line that many of the sports books open with for almost a decade. While creating the lines, White used a democratic philosophy with his LVSC staff where the line would be sent out as a consensus among his line and his five odds makers. More times than not though, White’s individual line would be closer to what actually happened in the game and mirror what way the line actually moved.

White’s specialty centers around all college sports, baseball, and pro football. He has an individual rating system for every player on every team that factors into the lines he makes and spends tireless amounts of time accumulating all the data needed to come up with those ratings. In what may seem odd to many, White says he rarely watches games to not have the data misconstrued, but rather lets the box score of every game from all sports tell the story

White will continue to keep track of all his specialized ratings for his next venture which could turn out to help bettors in the same manner he has helped the sports books over the years. White hasn’t officially announced what that venture will be, but with his sharp eye for what the line should be compared to what it actually is, well, let’s just say that type of information is the kind that most bettors would buy to give them an edge. I’ll have updates on White as I talk with him down the road.  
      
Buckeye Fans Short Term Memory

It doesn’t seem like that long ago that I was driving back from West Lafayette to Columbus -- following Ohio State’s 26-18 loss to the Boilermakers as a 13-point favorite  -- when we started listening to all the fans and sports talk show hosts bad mouth the Buck-eyes. One host said, “This is the worst Buckeye crew of all-time and what’s worse is we have to sit through another year of mediocrity next year with the same garbage.”

That loss was heartbreaking as it basically took Ohio State out of the National Title hunt, but the team still eventually won the Rose Bowl and finished 11-2. Well, just last week I was listening to the same radio show when the same host was touting them as National Champs with only the Sept. 11 Miami game getting in their way. The host even touted Terrelle Pryor as the best quarterback in the nation; this after saying last year that he wished Michigan would have signed Pryor coming out of high school.

The Buckeyes are currently ranked No. 2 in the nation behind Alabama and have a pretty soft Big 10 schedule compared to what Alabama has to go through in the SEC and could very well be set-up nicely for a Championship game which is why they are the 4 to 1 favorite in Las Vegas to win the title, but if the rug is pulled from under them before that, I hope I’m there to hear banter on that particular day. It’s pure comedy and one of the best things about big time college football.