Fantasy Football Week 12: Chargers Jackson Back Just in Time

By Micah Roberts
Las Vegas Review-Journal

Better late than never.

That's the sentiment of the San Diego Chargers as they welcome back All-Pro wide receiver Vincent Jackson, who missed the first 10 games of the season. And the timing couldn't be better.

Even though the Chargers have the NFL's top-ranked passing offense, they've had to deal with a multitude of injuries in their receiving corps, which makes what quarterback Philip Rivers has accomplished even more impressive.

Rivers began the season without his top receiver in Jackson because of a contract dispute, All-Pro tight end Antonio Gates has missed time because of a torn plantar fascia, and San Diego has gone through a series of backup receivers getting hurt and sitting out. Yet Rivers led the NFL in yardage and touchdown passes through Week 11.

Because Patrick Crayton suffered a wrist injury Monday night, the timing of Jackson's return was perfect. Jackson might be a little rusty from his layoff, but all indications from practice this week suggest he's in top shape and will be counted on to make big plays against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.

The Chargers are a great offensive team without the 6-foot-5-inch Jackson, who led the NFL the past two seasons with an average of more than 17 yards per catch. But he makes them even more dangerous.

Wise fantasy owners who recently picked up Jackson might be wary of starting him his first time out, perhaps choosing to see what his role will be after such a long layoff. But it will be painful watching him do what he does best -- making big plays -- while he's on your bench.
Because of the Chargers' desperation for receivers, their tradition of great performances in the second half of the season and a key game against the 20th-ranked defense of the Colts, Jackson is a must start this week.

Another Pro Bowl wide receiver in a similar situation is Minnesota's Sidney Rice, who made his season debut in Week 11. Fantasy owners should have been cautious with Rice in Week 11 because he was questionable coming back from a hip injury.

But after Rice had three catches and a team-leading 56 yards on a team-best 10 targets against the Green Bay Packers, it's safe to start Brett Favre's favorite receiver and expect big numbers against the Washington Redskins.

With Tennessee Titans quarterback Vince Young out for the remainder of the season and Kerry Collins still nursing a strained calf for at least one more week, owners of key Titans offensive players should be worried as their fate will be in the hands of rookie Rusty Smith.

Because of the uncertainty of what Smith will bring, wide receivers Nate Washington and Randy Moss should be played only as a last resort.

For those patient owners who have kept New York Giants running back Brandon Jacobs on their benches, the move has paid off as Giants coach Tom Coughlin made Jacobs the starting back after Ahmad Bradshaw's six fumbles this season.

Jacobs has been somewhat productive this season, with five touchdowns in limited play but now should be ready to rumble for big yardage the remainder of the season.

The Giants' passing game took an injury-related blow for the second consecutive week when it lost leading receiver Hakeem Nicks for up to three weeks. This comes one week after the Giants lost their other starting wideout, Steve Smith.

Mario Manningham becomes the featured guy, making him a must pickup and start for New York's Week 12 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Because of the injuries, Derek Hagan also becomes a starter and a viable option if you're desperate for receivers.

A player to pick up and tuck away on the bench is quarterback Tony Romo. His return has no definitive timetable, but with the Dallas Cowboys looking for a respectable finish to a dreadful season, their final games are meaningful. Romo might be a player who could produce big numbers late in the fantasy playoffs. It's a gamble worth taking.

■ NOTES -- Anyone notice what Kansas City Chiefs receiver Dwayne Bowe has been doing lately? He's scored a touchdown in six straight games with 10 overall during that span. ... The Carolina Panthers' Mike Goodson has rushed for more than 100 yards in two straight games and is available in many leagues. ... With Washington Redskins running back Clinton Portis back on injured reserve, Keiland Williams doesn't have to share carries with anyone.

Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director who covers all sports for multiple publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.

Fantasy Football Week 9: Moss should be a big help to Titans down the stretch

By Micah Roberts
Las Vegas Review-Journal

It was only four weeks ago that we were breaking down the impact of the Patriots' trade of Randy Moss to the Vikings and how it would affect the teams involved. Who ever would have thought that we'd be doing it again so soon as Moss embarks on a tour with the Titans, his third NFL team in a season not even half over yet?

Playing for three teams in a 16-week NFL season is unheard of, especially for a Hall of Fame-type player who still can bring it. Should Moss score in one of the final eight Titans games, he will be the only player in NFL history to have a touchdown with three teams in a season.

This is the enigma that is Moss. Most fantasy owners had forgotten what he was capable of off the field and in locker rooms while drafting him as the second or third receiver taken. Then again, why would anyone expect Moss to resort back to his behavior from earlier years in Minnesota and Oakland? He had the full support of quarterback Tom Brady, coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots' organization.

But his act grew tiresome in New England and then again in Minnesota, where the Vikings staff believed it had found the answer to all of its problems but soon admitted regrets in trading a third-round draft pick for Moss as he compounded their problems.

While Moss' fantasy performance this season has been disappointing, he still has five touchdowns. His stop in Tennessee could be his last if he doesn't change the attitude that has rubbed people wrong in at least two cities this season. The combination of Moss realizing the situation he's in and also having a no-nonsense coach like Jeff Fisher could make this a perfect match, much in the same way Moss was inspired by Belichick upon arrival there.

Moss wants to be a big part of the offense, and Fisher knows it. Look for him to be happy and rejuvenated with his last chance. He'll get to step in immediately and help with Titans starting receiver Kenny Britt out for up to eight weeks because of a torn hamstring.

Here's a look at how Moss' departure and arrival will affect the other Vikings and Titans players:
Percy Harvin might suffer a little with Moss being gone. Brett Favre will have to throw at someone, but it was much easier for Harvin in single coverage while Moss was double-teamed. The biggest gainer could be tight end Visanthe Shiancoe. Prior to Moss' arrival, Shiancoe was Favre's go-to outlet with 10 receptions and a touchdown in Minnesota's first two games. He's caught only 10 more passes since with no touchdowns.

It's hard to believe that Titans running back Chris Johnson could be any better, but the threat of Moss -- who surely will be double-teamed most of the time -- will keep opposing secondaries honest and should open more holes for the elusive back. Wide receiver Nate Washington also should benefit from Moss being in Tennessee because he's likely to have seams open against zone coverage as opposing teams key on Moss.

Titans quarterback Vince Young also should be considered for a pickup to store on the bench to see how the troubled receiver's third marriage of the season works out.

Out of desperation from Moss and a great leader in Fisher, who will use him to win the division, Moss should put up his traditional numbers for the final eight games and validate the early draft choices on him during the stretch run and into the fantasy playoffs.

■ TOP WEEK 9 PICKUPS -- Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman could become even better with LeGarrette Blount taking care of the ground game.

Chargers running back Mike Tolbert still is getting his share of playing time and goal-line scores despite the Chargers moving more toward rookie Ryan Mathews.

Lions running back Kevin Smith is getting carries and heating up while rookie Jahvid Best has cooled off considerably from Detroit's first two games.

Colts wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez is available in many leagues and likely will become a larger part of Indianapolis' banged-up offense.

■ BYE WEEK -- Denver, Jacksonville, St. Louis, San Francisco, Tennessee, Washington.

Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director who covers all sports for multiple publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.

Fantasy Football: Lynch, Moss Trades Open Many Fantasy Doors

By Micah Roberts
Las Vegas Review-Journal

The trades this week involving Randy Moss and Marshawn Lynch will have ripple effects -- of a positive nature -- for many fantasy owners.

The Bills sending Lynch to Seattle and the Patriots shipping Moss to Minnesota is a win-win for everyone involved. The only doubters of the claim might be the owners of Justin Forsett and Bernard Berrian. However, over the first four weeks of play, it's apparent neither of those players was going to make much of an impact, which is why the teams made the trades.

The effect Lynch's trade will have goes much further than the impact he'll have on Seattle. Most owners picked up Lynch after the Bills showcased him as the feature back for prospective teams, and Seattle finally made the deal after speculation had him going to Green Bay. The deal opens things up in a crowded Bills backfield for C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson.

Jackson is expected to get the bulk of Buffalo's carries, with Spiller taking on a larger role than seen so far. This is exceptional news for those who drafted Spiller early thinking his great preseason and speed would make him this year's breakthrough rookie running back. With Lynch gone, Spiller could still live up to some of those expectations. The trade also allows Jackson to be a quality No. 3 fantasy back on a weekly basis.

As for Lynch in Seattle, he is teamed with Forsett, his college teammate at California. He's got a better offensive line in Seattle than in Buffalo, and his hard running between the tackles is sure to win over coach Pete Carroll, who wasn't happy with his 27th-ranked rushing attack. Forsett will go back to his role as a relief back and see action in passing situations.

Fantasy owners of Moss and all the Vikings can rejoice because a happy Moss makes Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin better. Favre becomes a viable fantasy starter now that he has the option of throwing downfield, something Berrian couldn't provide as a fill-in for injured Sidney Rice. Harvin also doesn't have the pressure of being a No. 1 receiver who gets double-teamed. For Peterson, opposing teams can no longer stack the line because they have to respect Moss deep with two defenders.

Moss owners have to be ecstatic because Moss should be happy, which makes him play at the highest level ever seen at his position. It's apparent that Moss' contract situation and his feeling disrespected by Patriots management was affecting his play. Moss has never been one to run hard on every play, but this year more than ever he routinely gave away plays to opposing defenses through a body language that said the ball wasn't coming his way. Through four games, Moss had only nine receptions for 139 yards and three touchdowns. On Monday night against the Dolphins, he didn't catch any passes and dropped one sure touchdown reception.

Moss' departure from New England opens the door for more fantasy options who will fill pass-catching roles with the Patriots. Players such as Brandon Tate, Aaron Hernandez and Julian Edelman become players to take note of because Tom Brady is going to continue slinging the ball.

Look for Tate to be the main beneficiary of the Moss deal, making him a must-pickup in all leagues. This is the type of move that can elevate any fantasy team over the next 12 weeks. Tate is Brady's new deep-route guy, and he's widely available. Go get him.

■ OTHER MUST-PICKUPS -- Ryan Torain, RB, Redskins: Clinton Portis will miss up to six weeks, and Torain will become Washington's full-time back. He's already made an impact as a part-timer and should reach close to 100 yards weekly while Portis is out.
Michael Bush, RB, Raiders: Darren McFadden is out this week and possibly beyond with hamstring issues, leaving all the carries for Bush. He's a bruising, downhill runner who should fare well against a Chargers squad that struggled in its first two road games this year.

■ FANTASY GAME OF THE WEEK -- If waiting for the right time to use Eli Manning and Brandon Jacobs, this week at Houston should be it. Expect a high-tempo game with lots of scoring and big plays. Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson is still questionable, but Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter should pick up the void if he misses another game.

■ PROCEED WITH CAUTION -- The Bears-Panthers game without QB Jay Cutler and WR Steve Smith could be one of the week's ugliest matchups, sure to be filled with more errors than touchdowns. ... The Broncos probably won't have RB Knowshon Moreno again, and against a tough Ravens defense, don't look for his backups to do much. ... QB Max Hall starting in Arizona can't make WR Larry Fitzgerald owners happy, and the Saints will be fine with Chris Ivory running the ball should Pierre Thomas miss another game.

■ BYE WEEKS -- Miami, New England, Pittsburgh, Seattle.

Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director who covers all sports for multiple publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.

FANTASY FOOTBALL: Stay Away From Most Ravens-Steelers Players This Week

By Micah Roberts
Las Vegas Review-Journal

The Ravens-Steelers game arguably is the biggest NFL game of Week 4, but fantasy football players shouldn't expect it to produce big numbers.

This matchup appears to feature far more subplots than expected offensive gains, which is why Las Vegas sports books posted it with the lowest total of the week, at 34½.

Matching Baltimore's top-rated defense against Pittsburgh's sixth-ranked unit figures to produce a low-scoring game. Someone has to score, though, and, while running backs Rashard Mendenhall and Ray Rice and wide receiver Anquan Boldin generally are must-starts, the top fantasy earners in this game could be kickers Billy Cundiff and Jeff Reed.

Mendenhall has rushed for 332 yards in three games for the Steelers (3-0). For all the credit the Steelers defense has been given as the key to their success without suspended quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, Mendenhall often is lost in the shuffle.

Mendenhall provides one of many storylines in the bruising series between the two teams. He texted Rice just before his first career start during Week 4 of the 2008 season and predicted he'd have a big game. Ray Lewis and the Ravens defense took offense to the rookie's boisterous nature, and, on his 10th carry, Lewis hit Mendenhall hard, breaking his shoulder and ending his season.

In last season's two meetings, Mendenhall produced a 95-yard effort in a loss and a 36-yard game with a touchdown in a win. He might feel more confident after seeing how Cleveland running back Peyton Hillis pounded out 144 yards rushing and a score against the Ravens in Week 3.

Rice comes in with a banged-up knee. The Steelers are not the type of team someone who is aching wants to face. Rice has been a disappointment this year, producing 275 total yards and no touchdowns. But he is the only running back in 37 games to rush for 100 yards against the Steelers, which happened the last time they played.

Much of Rice's drop in production has been because of the Ravens' new commitment to the pass with Boldin, who exploded in Week 3 with a three-touchdown day. Even though quarterback Joe Flacco is not a good fantasy start this week, Boldin's ability makes him dangerous against anyone.

Joining Flacco on the list of players in this matchup to proceed with caution are wide receivers Mike Wallace, Hines Ward and Derrick Mason and tight end Todd Heap. And, with Rice hurting, it might be a good idea to pick up backup Ravens running back Willis McGahee.

Here's a look at some other potentially available players who could be good for Week 4 and beyond:
■ BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots: With Fred Taylor still questionable and Kevin Faulk out for the season, Green-Ellis takes over the load of the ground game for a good offensive team.
■ Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns: He no longer is under the radar after last week's performance.
■ Louis Murphy, WR, Raiders: He had 11 receptions and 210 yards in the past two games and, for the season, has been a better earner than both Steve Smiths, Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson.
■ Ryan Torain, RB, Redskins: He is a Mike Shanahan favorite who he drafted while at Denver and always believed could be a feature back in his offense. Torain got the bulk of Washington's second-half carries last week, finishing with 46 yards on seven attempts.

■ BYE WEEKS -- Dallas, Kansas City, Minnesota and Tampa Bay.

Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director who covers all sports for multiple publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.

Mathews and Moreno Head List of Injured Players Doubtful For Week 3 NFL Action

By Micah Roberts

Here’s the latest NFL injury news regarding key players heading into this weekends games beginning with the running backs:

The Broncos Knowshon Moreno is out for Sunday’s game against the Colts thanks to some hamstring issues. Starting in his place will be veteran Correll Buckhalter or Laurence Maroney. Buckhalter is a steady back who has filled in nicely for Moreno and there shouldn’t be much of a drop off.

Chargers rookie Ryan Mathews is listed as doubtful and Mike Tolbert will get the nod at Seattle this week. There are a lot of expectations placed on Mathews, but we haven’t seen what he can thus far into the regular season. Tolbert came in last week and did a nice job of moving the chains, scoring and holding onto the ball, something that has haunted Mathews early on.

Beanie Wells should see his first action of the year this week against the Raiders cutting into Tim Hightower’s time. Also, Atlanta’s Michael Turner and Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew are both listed as probable and expected to play. Michael Bush is also expected to return for the Raiders Sunday, but how much is still a question since Darren McFadden had a great game last week.

Key receivers that have some questions this week include Pierre Garcon, who is listed as questionable with hamstring problems, and Hines Ward calf issue has him listed as probable at Tampa Bay.

Jake Delhomme is still nursing a sore ankle and is doubtful for the Browns game at Baltimore meaning Seneca Wallace will likely start again. Injuries didn’t force new starters on four teams this week, just simple poor play. Bruce Gradkowski will start for Oakland, Michael Vick for Philadelphia, Ryan Fitzpatrick for Buffalo and Jimmy Clausen at Carolina. Shaun Hill also gets the nod in Detroit again as Matt Stafford will be out for another four weeks.

On the defensive side, Darrelle Revis is out for the Jets Sunday night game at Miami. It must have really hurt when Randy Moss scored easily on him -- one handed -- last Sunday. The Broncos are all banged up on Defense with several starters being questionable led by Champ Bailey. Peyton Manning is not the type of player a hurt secondary wants to face.  

FANTASY FOOTBALL: Kyle Orton's Stock Rising As He Continues To Play Well

By Micah Roberts
Las Vegas Review-Journal

One of the biggest questions coming into the season for the Denver Broncos was how the offense would make up for the loss of wide receiver Brandon Marshall.

Losing a playmaker who caught more than 100 passes in each of the past three seasons was perceived by many as making the team weaker, with a rough 2010 in store. However, the transition of life after Marshall has been smooth and in some ways makes the Broncos more dangerous thanks to the improved play of quarterback Kyle Orton.

Many fantasy owners passed over Orton until late in their drafts with the modest goal of hoping he could have a decent game in the weeks their starting quarterbacks had byes. But with the way Orton looked throughout the preseason and the first two weeks of the regular season, he's going to be pressing many owners into starting him sooner than those bye weeks.

Through two games, only five quarterbacks have more than Orton's 602 yards passing and a rating higher than his 103.9. He's also tied for eighth in the NFL with 46 completions and has thrown three touchdowns with only one interception. While NFL ratings don't necessarily equate to fantasy points, it does show that Orton is moving the ball efficiently, which has equated to the team having success on offense.

Orton's evolution began last season, when he jelled quickly with first-year Broncos coach Josh McDaniels' passing scheme. Despite the tough task of taking over for the popular Jay Cutler, Orton still completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 3,802 yards and 21 touchdowns, with only 12 interceptions. He wasn't flashy and didn't produce any huge fantasy totals for any one game, but he was a consistent earner.

This year during the preseason, there was a considerable change in Orton. He had a confident swagger and for the first time in his career had the look of being an NFL quarterback who truly was in charge. His passes were crisper than ever, and he carried that attitude through the Broncos' first two regular-season games.

The beneficiary of Orton's rise in confidence is a nice group of underrated receivers who many fantasy owners still are trying to gauge. The offensive system has plenty of balls going around, but the passes are going to several receivers rather than the big bulk that went to Marshall last year. Eddie Royal leads the team with 13 receptions, but rookie first-round draft pick Demaryius Thomas looks to be one who should flourish the most, and he's available in several fantasy leagues.

Thomas fell under the radar because no one saw him play. A broken foot kept the former Georgia Tech star out of the preseason, and he missed Denver's season opener at Jacksonville. But in Week 2, everyone saw what he was capable of by catching eight passes in nine targets for 97 yards and a touchdown. With the way the 6-foot-3-inch, 229-pound rookie caught a few of Orton's passes Sunday against the Seahawks, you couldn't help but think of the similarities between him and Marshall.

Thomas has played only one game, but with the way Orton looks and the potential Thomas brings, he is a must-buy this week and could be used immediately as your No. 3 wide receiver.

As for Orton, this might be the week to give him a shot in the starting lineup in what looks to be a high-scoring home game against the Colts. By no means should you rest one of the elite quarterbacks, but if you have the likes of Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning or worse, Orton could be an upgrade in Week 3.

■ SAINTS RUNNING BACKS -- With Reggie Bush expected to miss up to six weeks because of a broken leg, someone is going to have to fill his role in New Orleans' offense.
History has shown that the Saints hardly miss a beat offensively without him. In the 12 games Bush has missed during his career, the Saints have gone 8-4 and averaged 33.3 points a game with others filling his role. The candidates to keep an eye on this week are Ladell Betts and rookie Chris Ivory.

■ BILLS' LYNCH -- Marshawn Lynch has been a popular buy this week because of rumors that the Packers might have interest in trading for the Bills back. If Brandon Jackson doesn't work out in the next few weeks as Ryan Grant's replacement, the rumors could become reality. Lynch's style of running is similar to Grant's, and he would be a great replacement if the trade happens. The possibilities are worth taking the gamble on Lynch now.

Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director who covers all sports for multiple publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.

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FANTASY FOOTBALL: Don't Be Averse to Targeting Elite Quarterback early

By MICAH ROBERTS
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

There are several strategies on when and where to draft your quarterback, and most of those are changed and/or compromised based on the players available players when your time comes.
It seems inviting to get your top running backs in place because of the limited number of them. Inevitably, by the time the draft snakes its way back to you, such top quarterbacks as Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning probably will be gone.

It's a tough choice that has to be made, but should it be that tough? Think about it: The top quarterbacks are about as consistent from year to year as it gets in fantasy football. Tom Brady getting hurt in the first game of 2008 put a sour taste in the mouths of many fantasy players because, in many drafts, he was the overall No. 1 pick after throwing a record 50 touchdown passes in 2007. But fantasy falloffs and tragedies such as Brady's are rare with the top QBs.

Drafting Titans running back Chris Johnson as the first pick overall, even if he does have some drop-off from last season, is a no-brainer. Taking outstanding Vikings running back Adrian Peterson next seems like a wise choice because he figures to get a lot of scores in a good offense. But after that, the safe choice in taking a player who will be your team's foundation -- with little variation of what is expected -- would be an elite quarterback.

The upper-echelon quarterback is the safe play with little risk. Here's a look at some quarterbacks who should equal or better their 2009 numbers:

■ Aaron Rodgers, Packers: He improved dramatically in all passing statistics during his second year as a starter and is expected to be better in 2010. You'd be hard-pressed to lose any argument making him the first quarterback selected. He's being selected eighth overall right after New Orleans' Drew Brees, but gambling with the likes of Frank Gore, Michael Turner and Ray Rice before Rodgers seems too big a risk. Projection: No. 4 pick, 4,500 yards, 35 TDs.

■ Peyton Manning, Colts: His 12 seasons mirror each other statistically. With the exception of his magical year in 2004, when he threw 49 touchdown passes, Manning is about as machinelike as it gets. He stays healthy, throws for at least 30 touchdowns and has been the most bankable fantasy player since 2000. He's being drafted with the 10th overall pick. Projection: No. 8 pick, 4,300 yards, 32 TDs.

■ Matt Schaub, Texans: If drafting a running back or Houston wide receiver Andre Johnson in the first round, Schaub is a must-take in the second. Last year he led the league in passing yards at 298 per game and had 29 touchdown passes. The Schaub-Johnson hook-up on your team could be profitable. He's being drafted with the 20th pick. Projection: No. 16 pick, 4,700 yards, 30 TDs.
■ Philip Rivers, Chargers: He threw for fewer touchdowns in 2009 (28) than the year before (34) but increased his yardage. Some might be skeptical of Rivers with his top wideout, Vincent Jackson, suspended for three games and not in camp, but don't be. Rivers will throw a lot no matter who is out there. He's being drafted with the 30th overall pick. Projection: No. 25 pick, 4,200 yards, 30 TDs.

■ Eli Manning, Giants: If within the first six rounds you find yourself stockpiled with running backs and receivers while everyone else has taken a quarterback, Manning is your guy. He had career highs in yardage (4,021) and touchdown passes (27) last year and yet is being taken as the 12th quarterback with the 70th pick. He has a nice stable of receivers to target. Projection: No. 66 pick, 4,200 yards, 28 TDs.

■ Carson Palmer, Bengals: He's worth taking a shot as a backup with the possibility of what might happen with all the new toys he has to throw to. The Bengals will look to run first and use the same formula that got them to the playoffs last year, but having Terrell Owens deep along with rookies Jermaine Gresham over the middle and Jordan Shipley underneath create possibilities that could make Palmer surprise. Projection: No. 80 pick, 3,600 yards, 25 TDs.

Micah Roberts has been making player proposition odds for Las Vegas sports books since 1995 and currently covers all sports from a betting perspective for various publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.

Click Here for a complete list of Roberts Fantasy Football Rankings

Receivers The Most Plentiful Of Positions in This Years Fantasy Football Draft

By Micah Roberts
Las Vegas Review-Journal

If you decide to load up on running backs and take a quarterback in the early rounds of your NFL fantasy draft, don't worry. You'll still be able to get a quality wide receiver.

While there's a sharp drop-off at running back and quarterback after the top 10 at each position, the talent pool is deep at wide receiver and tight end. Most teams have a go-to receiver, as opposed to the running back-by-committee several teams are using. Some pass-happy offenses -- Green Bay, Houston, Indianapolis and New Orleans -- will have two or three receivers who post quality numbers.

The names at the top are easy to recite: Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald. But the key is to identify players who are primed for breakout seasons that often make the difference in your fantasy league.

Last year it was Miles Austin and Sidney Rice, who were late-round picks at best before posting top-10 seasons at their position. Austin made 81 receptions for 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns for the Cowboys, and Rice had 83 catches for 1,312 yards and eight TDs for the Vikings.

In mock drafts this year, Austin is being selected anywhere from 24th to 30th overall, but he should be going higher. He's likely to put up statistics that rival those of Johnson, the Texans star who is the unanimous No. 1 receiver. In the Cowboys' dynamic offense, Austin should be good for about 95 receptions for 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Rice is another story. The Vikings standout had hip surgery this week and is expected to miss half the season.
The Bears, Redskins and Bills are running new systems, and some players on those teams have great value.
In Chicago, where Mike Martz is running the offense, Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu both are being drafted around 120th overall. They should be going a round or two earlier.

Mike Shanahan is the Redskins' new coach and Donovan McNabb their new quarterback, and the offense should be much better because of them. Wide receiver Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley should benefit most.

Chan Gailey takes over as coach of the Bills, and nobody is happier about that than wide receiver Lee Evans. Gailey loves to spread the field with downfield passes, the type of offense to which the speedy Evans is best suited.

Three other receivers who are undervalued:

Jabar Gaffney, Broncos: He has become quarterback Kyle Orton's go-to guy during the preseason after the trade of Brandon Marshall. Remember, Gaffney caught 14 passes for 213 yards in last season's finale. He should have a career year in Denver's pass-first, ask-questions-later offense.

Dexter McCluster, Chiefs: The speedy rookie will line up at running back and wide receiver. Think Percy Harvin from last year with more carries and targets.

Bernard Berrian, Vikings: His stock has risen considerably after Rice's surgery and the uncertainty of Harvin, who has missed most of camp because of migraine headaches.

Click Here To Get List of Roberts Top-50 ranked Wr's and Top-15 TE's.

Micah Roberts has been making player proposition odds for Las Vegas sports books since 1995 and currently covers all sports from a betting perspective for multiple publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.

FANTASY FOOTBALL: Mathews Looks To Warrant Serious Consideration as No. 5 RB Drafted

by Micah Roberts
Las Vegas Review-Journal

Every year as NFL fantasy drafts near, the biggest dilemma every owner has centers on running backs. The backs are the most eagerly sought after position and can be the foundation for any successful team.

Last season's best first-round bargain ended up being the Titans' Chris Johnson, who ran for more than 2,000 yards in addition to having more than 500 reception yards en route to 16 total touchdowns.

Backs who consistently hurt teams by underachieving were Michael Turner, Matt Forte, Frank Gore and Steven Jackson, all of whom were drafted by most within the top six picks.

While Jackson had his second-best career output with 1,416 yards rushing, he scored only four touchdowns. Injuries kept Gore and Turner from living up to the numbers expected of a top-six pick. Forte never got a grip on his role in Jay Cutler's offense.

After scanning each team's rosters, considering their game plans and seeing where some of this year's backs have been taken in mock drafts, there appears to be value for a few this season who warrant earlier consideration because they could become breakout performers.

The first is San Diego rookie Ryan Mathews. In the past two seasons, many blamed the Chargers' lack of production in the running game on a change in offensive philosophy geared more toward quarterback Philip Rivers and the offensive line not doing its job in run-blocking situations.

Perhaps the media and coaching staff were just being kind to future Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson by regularly placing blame elsewhere. The reality is that Tomlinson lost a step after seven stellar years in the NFL, averaging 3.3 yards per carry.

Mathews' biggest contribution might be his pass-catching, an amenity that virtually disappeared for Rivers last season, as Tomlinson caught only 20 passes -- the lowest total of his career. Some fantasy players think backup Darren Sproles could see more time with Tomlinson gone, but that notion should be put to rest as Sproles remained a third-down back even as Tomlinson struggled last year.

Look for Mathews to get more than 300 carries and crack 1,400 yards rushing with double-digit touchdowns. The Chargers are going to score lots of points and are helped by playing six games against weak AFC West competition, and Mathews will be the new face of that attack.

After Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice have been taken, Mathews should garner consideration as the fifth back taken.

Other running backs to consider early:

■ Shonn Greene, Jets: He'll be running behind perhaps the NFL's best offensive line and replaces Thomas Jones, who ran for 1,402 yards in 2009. Greene has been drafted as about the 12th back, but he should be looked at earlier than the likes of Rashard Mendenhall, Cedric Benson and Turner.

■ LeSean McCoy, Eagles: He is being drafted by most in the fourth round as the 20th back taken. He takes over the role of Brian Westbrook in coach Andy Reid's West Coast offense, which means his expected receptions and receiving yards will be higher than most backs in the league. He could be one of the best bargains in the draft.

On the web: Roberts Top-50 Running Back Rankings

Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director who covers sports for various publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.

Fantasy Football Week 4: Bye Weeks Begin, Starters Can Be Found Under The Radar

by Micah Roberts
Las Vegas Review Journal

Three weeks into the NFL season, there's a small sampling of team data that can help make fantasy owners' decisions for the bye weeks easier. Decisions must be made on whom to start from unused players deep on the roster and even for those regular starters who are underperforming.

Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia are off this week.

The first thing to look at is how your player is being featured in the offense. Has he been part of the game plan on a weekly basis, and was it conditional only because of the situation the team was in whether winning or losing? How many touches are your running backs getting, and how many times are your wide receivers getting targeted by their quarterbacks?

While receptions are an obvious tool to see how involved a wide receiver is in a game plan, you can dig deeper in your research.

An example of a player going under the radar, and one who should be considered for starts even beyond bye weeks, is Seattle's Nate Burleson.

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