Several Contending Teams Finding Themselves with ? at QB

Jay Cutler being out is a major problem for Bears

While Aaron Rodgers is setting NFL records and leading the Packers to an undefeated season with Las Vegas sports books giving the option whether they do it or not, other teams are finding themselves in quarterback question-mark-land.

After the Packers (8/5), Patriots (9/2), 49ers (6/1), Steelers (10/1), Ravens (10/1), and Saints (12/1), we have a couple teams that were contenders for the Super Bowl that now have major questions at the quarterback position. The Texans (15/1) will be without Matt Schaub for the remainder of the season as will the Bears (30/1) as they make their journey without Jay Cutler.

On a lesser note, the Chiefs (1000/1) will have to try and win the AFC West without Matt Cassel as they sit two games behind the first-place Oakland Raiders (20/1) with their newly acquired Carson Palmer. They’re only two games out of first place in a division that looks to rival the weak NFC West of last season where an automatic playoff position could be reserved for a .500 team or worse.

Quarterbacks make the league and despite all the rules in place to protect them, we currently have two legitimate teams that were candidates to win the Super Bowl in jeopardy of not even making the playoffs now. The Bears immediate plans have Caleb Hanie making his first NFL start Sunday at Oakland while the Texans will rely on Matt Leinart at Jacksonville.

The Bears were looking at being a small favorite at Oakland, but when news of Cutler’s broken thumb came out, sports books overreacted with the number and made Oakland a 5-point favorite. Cutler is worth 3-points to the line, but to suggest he was worth 6-points was a bit ridiculous. Most Las Vegas sports books currently have the Raiders as 4 to 4 ½-point favorites which is still giving Cutler a little more credit than deserved.

The feeling with the Texans is that Leinart should be okay with the best offensive line in football to go along with Adrian Foster. Schaub has taken a back seat this season to Foster and the running game. Not having Andre Johnson to throw to for the last few weeks has made it unnecessary to throw like 2009, but even with Johnson in the lineup the Texans were still geared towards the run.

The Texans opened as 3-point favorites this week at Jacksonville and have been bet up to -3 ½ with most of that a testament to how the Jaguars have played under their rookie QB Blaine Gabbert. Basically, Gabbert appears lost in the NFL set.

Both the Bears and Texans may have found some relief with a proven NFL quarterback being tossed on waivers by Denver with Kyle Orton. The Chiefs immediately claimed him and hope that they can go into their AFC West division battle with someone other than Tyler Palko.

However, the Bears would seem like the perfect fit for Orton to keep their hopes alive for post-season play and a shot to take down the Packers. Caleb Hanie did well for the Bears -- making a game of the NFC Championship, but the organization has to realize that the future isn’t good with him which is why the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book raised the Super Bowl odds on Chicago from 15-to-1 to 30-to-1.

As for Orton’s old team, Denver, it’s hard what to make of their situation. What GM or VP makes negative remarks about their starting quarterback after he’s gone 4-1? John Elway still hasn’t given his endorsement to Tim Tebow. You could kind of tell by Elway’s polite golf clap after an exciting game winning touchdown by Tebow last Thursday against the Jets that Elway's is still in search of the Broncos QB of the future, maybe Matt Barkley.

The Chargers have been on a skid that has seen them lose five games in a row with their last win coming against the Broncos in week 5, a game where Tebow came in late to almost win and eventually sealed the fate of Orton. San Diego has been a steady 6 ½-point favorite all week, but Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says Tebow presents a problem in making the odds.

“Good option quarterbacks always present a problem in making the line because there is such a large variable with them whether it’s college, or now the in pro’s with Tebow,” said White who co-stars in Discovery’s Velocity channel TV show ‘The Linemakers’. “Their running for yardage and ability to move the chains by themselves is something that we haven’t had to analyze much as much on the pro level but is proving to be one that has to be strongly considered in making a team rating for Denver,“

The team Denver and Tebow just beat, the Jets -- and most notably their head coach Rex Ryan, are doing all they can to ruin the confidence of their signal caller Mark Sanchez. Ryan had back-up Mark Brunnell taking first string snaps during practice this week as somewhat of a message that he’s not happy with his quarterback’s play.

All Sanchez has done since he’s been there is go to two straight AFC Championship games, but Ryan still thinks he has to send a message to his QB through the media. Maybe it’s because Ryan is a defensive coach, but he has a lot to learn about how to handle the leader of his club. The QB position -- the franchise of the organization -- should be treated delicately, yet Ryan feels the need to embarrass his through the media.

The Jets welcome a struggling Bills squad that got worse news than losing four out of their last five with RB Fred Jackson being lost for the season. The Jets went from 7 ½-point favorites to -9 following the news. It also doesn’t help the spread that new multi-millionaire Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown 10 interceptions in his last five games.

While the Bears and Cowboys put claims in for Orton, it appears that he’s headed for Kansas City. Orton likely won’t play in this week’s home game against the Steelers, but you never know based on Tyler Palko’s performance Monday night against the Patriots. Palko didn’t look all that bad, but the parts he did looks bad in, it was apparent that he had never started an NFL game before.

The Steelers are 10 ½-point favorites for this one, almost the same line it was two years ago when the Chiefs had a huge 27-24 upset against the Steelers in week 11. We know the Chiefs have some fight in them based on their four game winning streak, but sandwiched outside of those win is the first three games and last three games that resonate the most with this line. Kansas City’s first three weeks saw them outscored 109-27 and the last three weeks it’s been 82-16 for the other teams.

The Cardinals-Rams game is off the board at most Vegas sports books because of Kevin Kolb’s uncertainty, but does it really matter? John Skelton has proven to be an efficient QB in going 2-1 this season. The difference between the two is maybe 1-point. The sports books that do have the line up have St. Louis a 3-point favorite.

Michael Vick didn’t practice Wednesday and the line based on him not playing is Patriots -3. Vince Young did very well in the Eagles win over the Giants last week despite throwing 3 picks. For some reason, there seemed to be an urgency with the Eagles, and although Young is not known for leadership, it seemed there was more than Vick has offered.

Matt Hasselbeck is expected to start for the Titans Sunday at home against the Buccaneers. However, the spread hasn’t reflected Hasselbeck’s status in Las Vegas. He‘s been the one reason Tennessee has maintained a decent rating in their games this season, yet the spread (-3 ½) respect him. The difference between him and Jake Locker is worth at least 3-points, but we’ve only seen a change of a half-point.

It’s a quarterback league and there is no better example than week 12 of the season to demonstrate how important they are to the spread and also future odds posted by the Hilton. A large portion of the teams are severely affected right now by their players taking the snaps.

Should Matt Flynn have to start for Green Bay due to another concussion by Rodgers at Detroit, sports books like Lucky’s in Las Vegas will have to do some major changes to their undefeated proposition that says the Packers will go unbeaten in the regular season (Yes +280/No -360).

Fantasy Football Week 12: Chargers Jackson Back Just in Time

By Micah Roberts
Las Vegas Review-Journal

Better late than never.

That's the sentiment of the San Diego Chargers as they welcome back All-Pro wide receiver Vincent Jackson, who missed the first 10 games of the season. And the timing couldn't be better.

Even though the Chargers have the NFL's top-ranked passing offense, they've had to deal with a multitude of injuries in their receiving corps, which makes what quarterback Philip Rivers has accomplished even more impressive.

Rivers began the season without his top receiver in Jackson because of a contract dispute, All-Pro tight end Antonio Gates has missed time because of a torn plantar fascia, and San Diego has gone through a series of backup receivers getting hurt and sitting out. Yet Rivers led the NFL in yardage and touchdown passes through Week 11.

Because Patrick Crayton suffered a wrist injury Monday night, the timing of Jackson's return was perfect. Jackson might be a little rusty from his layoff, but all indications from practice this week suggest he's in top shape and will be counted on to make big plays against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.

The Chargers are a great offensive team without the 6-foot-5-inch Jackson, who led the NFL the past two seasons with an average of more than 17 yards per catch. But he makes them even more dangerous.

Wise fantasy owners who recently picked up Jackson might be wary of starting him his first time out, perhaps choosing to see what his role will be after such a long layoff. But it will be painful watching him do what he does best -- making big plays -- while he's on your bench.
Because of the Chargers' desperation for receivers, their tradition of great performances in the second half of the season and a key game against the 20th-ranked defense of the Colts, Jackson is a must start this week.

Another Pro Bowl wide receiver in a similar situation is Minnesota's Sidney Rice, who made his season debut in Week 11. Fantasy owners should have been cautious with Rice in Week 11 because he was questionable coming back from a hip injury.

But after Rice had three catches and a team-leading 56 yards on a team-best 10 targets against the Green Bay Packers, it's safe to start Brett Favre's favorite receiver and expect big numbers against the Washington Redskins.

With Tennessee Titans quarterback Vince Young out for the remainder of the season and Kerry Collins still nursing a strained calf for at least one more week, owners of key Titans offensive players should be worried as their fate will be in the hands of rookie Rusty Smith.

Because of the uncertainty of what Smith will bring, wide receivers Nate Washington and Randy Moss should be played only as a last resort.

For those patient owners who have kept New York Giants running back Brandon Jacobs on their benches, the move has paid off as Giants coach Tom Coughlin made Jacobs the starting back after Ahmad Bradshaw's six fumbles this season.

Jacobs has been somewhat productive this season, with five touchdowns in limited play but now should be ready to rumble for big yardage the remainder of the season.

The Giants' passing game took an injury-related blow for the second consecutive week when it lost leading receiver Hakeem Nicks for up to three weeks. This comes one week after the Giants lost their other starting wideout, Steve Smith.

Mario Manningham becomes the featured guy, making him a must pickup and start for New York's Week 12 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Because of the injuries, Derek Hagan also becomes a starter and a viable option if you're desperate for receivers.

A player to pick up and tuck away on the bench is quarterback Tony Romo. His return has no definitive timetable, but with the Dallas Cowboys looking for a respectable finish to a dreadful season, their final games are meaningful. Romo might be a player who could produce big numbers late in the fantasy playoffs. It's a gamble worth taking.

■ NOTES -- Anyone notice what Kansas City Chiefs receiver Dwayne Bowe has been doing lately? He's scored a touchdown in six straight games with 10 overall during that span. ... The Carolina Panthers' Mike Goodson has rushed for more than 100 yards in two straight games and is available in many leagues. ... With Washington Redskins running back Clinton Portis back on injured reserve, Keiland Williams doesn't have to share carries with anyone.

Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director who covers all sports for multiple publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.

Las Vegas Betting Moves From NFL Week 11 and College Football through Thursday

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

You may look at the Chargers second ranked defense and think this may be a bad spot for Broncos offense, but before doing so, let’s analyze who the Chargers have played this season. The defensive statistics are somewhat of a mirage because of their opponents. Outside of quarterbacks Tom Brady and Matt Schaub, the Chargers unit has been helped by playing several teams in transition with identity problems behind center. Even the Texans are in somewhat of an identity crisis right now, especially since they have put the passing game aside in favor of the Arian Foster led running game.

This week the Chargers defense will face the No. 2 ranked passing offense of Denver. In a similar situation last year on a Monday night, the Broncos put up 33 points at San Diego. This year’s version of Denver is much more pass-happy and the attack has many more options offensively. They don’t rely on Brandon Marshall as the feature receiver and the unit is better. Denver rolls with Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal with near equality and running back Knowshon Moreno is healthier than ever to help what was a poor Denver running game.

As for the Chargers, they will get their points too and should help bump this total way over the posted total of 50 ½. Ryan Mathews may finally be the factor they anticipated in training camp, but has since struggled to gain the confidence of his coach. The Chargers also get a boost on offense with both wide receivers Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee practicing this week, a sign that they'll play. The additions should help Phillip Rivers continue his passing excellence against a porous Broncos defense. The only down fall the Chargers have offensively is tight end Antonio Gates, who is very ‘questionable’ this week as he missed practice again.

The Chargers opened as 9 ½-point favorites and have been bet up to -10. It may be hard to side with a team that has looked awful in spots like the Broncos have this season, but outside of the Raiders debacle, the Broncos have looked competitive in their other games. Because of the Raiders and 49ers losses, Denver’s rating is at an all-time low on the season while Chargers have never been higher because this is the second half of the season and the Chargers have won two in a row.

Look for the Broncos to play very competitive ball on Monday with lots of points being scored. This game should probably be a seven-point spread, giving value on the money-line (+400) as well.

The Raiders shocked the Steelers last season in Pittsburgh and could possibly do the same this week. The Steelers opened as 8 ½-point favorites and have been bet against to as low as -6 ½, but are currently at -7, which looks like the right number. It’s tough betting against the Steelers after a loss, but let’s face it, they don’t look so good right now as QB Ben Roethlisberger’s return has muddled up their basic, but affective offense.

The Panthers are in the same position they were in last week, except maybe even worse as they go with Brian St. Pierre at quarterback. The Panthers felt such little confidence in third-stringer Tony Pike that they gave the job to St. Pierre, who wasn’t even in any training camp this year and was a stay at home dad until last week. This factor, coupled with running back Jonathan Stewart likely out again, going against a solid Ravens defense should make covering the spread difficult for Carolina this week.

All season long we have been waiting for that one team to pick on week after week. Last season we had six teams through the first eight weeks that cashed in regularly. This year, no one has stepped up to be that bad, but we have a candidate raising their hands, and it’s Carolina. Last week Tampa Bay was the most lopsided team bet on in ticket count ratios and got there quite easily. Baltimore opened as a 10-point favorite and are now -10 ½. Expect this line to shoot up close to -13 by kickoff as there can be no argument for the Panthers side other than the league trend of underdogs being strong overall.

The early line on the Packers at Minnesota this week had Green Bay as a 1-point favorite, but opened on Monday with the Packers at -3. Last season we saw Vikings defensive end Jared Allen do all he wanted against the Packers offense, but this year, the tables will turn as it looks like GB’s Clay Matthews will be doing the terrorizing. Each week we keep saying “this game is the Vikings season” and they still lose. Green Bay has struggled with their passing game somewhat, but their defense looks much better than a year ago and should be the difference this week.

The Chiefs have struggled lately to recreate their success from early in the season as their defense has broken down, but everyone seems to believe they’ll get their groove back this week as they opened a 6 ½-point favorite against the Cardinals and have been bet up to -8.

The totals also became an attraction for bettors this week after 11 of the 14 games went over the number in Week 10. This week, the initial move on the totals went 9-2 in favor of taking the over.

Here’s a look at some of the other Pro Football Moves of the week through Thursday

• The Titans opened as 6 ½-point favorites against the Redskins and have been bet up to -7.
• Cincinnati opened as a 5-point home favorite to the competitive Bills and have been bet up to -5 ½.
• The Browns were getting +2 ½ at Jacksonville, but are down to +1 ½.
• The Saints opened as 11-point home favorites to Seattle, were bet up to -12 and now sit at -11 ½ as folks are still apprehensive about laying the big number with New Orleans.
• The 49ers opened as small 3-point home favorites to Tampa bay and have been bumped up to -3 ½.
• The Patriots opened a short price of -3 (-120) against the Colts in what looks to be the game of the week and have been bet up to -3 ½. Peyton Manning is the best, but his supporting cast makes he, himself, him tough to support with cash.
• The Eagles opened as 2 ½-point favorites against the Giants before their Monday night blasting of the Redskins, but are now -3 (-125); a surprisingly short move considering how impressive the Eagles were and how bad the Giants were in their last outing.

College Football Moves of the Week
We don’t have any real monster, must see matchups this week as most of the top BCS contenders are off this week, but it doesn’t explain why there haven’t been any big moves like we have seen throughout the season. No. 9 Ohio State travels to No. 20 Iowa in what is probably the marquee matchup of the week, but the line has stayed steady at Buckeyes -3 all week. No. 21 Mississippi State has seen some action as a 3 ½-point home underdog to No. 13 Arkansas pushing the line down to +3.

Duke was getting 13 points at Georgia Tech, but have been bet down to +10 ½ as it’s apparent that quarterback Josh Nesbitt, who is out for the season, is thought to have a bigger influence on the Yellow Jackets rating than listed.

Michigan opened as a 5 ½-point home underdog to Wisconsin and has been bet down to +4 with some of the move coming on air because of Badgers running back John Clay being shifted from ‘probable’ to ‘doubtful’ for this one.

Fantasy Football Week 9: Moss should be a big help to Titans down the stretch

By Micah Roberts
Las Vegas Review-Journal

It was only four weeks ago that we were breaking down the impact of the Patriots' trade of Randy Moss to the Vikings and how it would affect the teams involved. Who ever would have thought that we'd be doing it again so soon as Moss embarks on a tour with the Titans, his third NFL team in a season not even half over yet?

Playing for three teams in a 16-week NFL season is unheard of, especially for a Hall of Fame-type player who still can bring it. Should Moss score in one of the final eight Titans games, he will be the only player in NFL history to have a touchdown with three teams in a season.

This is the enigma that is Moss. Most fantasy owners had forgotten what he was capable of off the field and in locker rooms while drafting him as the second or third receiver taken. Then again, why would anyone expect Moss to resort back to his behavior from earlier years in Minnesota and Oakland? He had the full support of quarterback Tom Brady, coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots' organization.

But his act grew tiresome in New England and then again in Minnesota, where the Vikings staff believed it had found the answer to all of its problems but soon admitted regrets in trading a third-round draft pick for Moss as he compounded their problems.

While Moss' fantasy performance this season has been disappointing, he still has five touchdowns. His stop in Tennessee could be his last if he doesn't change the attitude that has rubbed people wrong in at least two cities this season. The combination of Moss realizing the situation he's in and also having a no-nonsense coach like Jeff Fisher could make this a perfect match, much in the same way Moss was inspired by Belichick upon arrival there.

Moss wants to be a big part of the offense, and Fisher knows it. Look for him to be happy and rejuvenated with his last chance. He'll get to step in immediately and help with Titans starting receiver Kenny Britt out for up to eight weeks because of a torn hamstring.

Here's a look at how Moss' departure and arrival will affect the other Vikings and Titans players:
Percy Harvin might suffer a little with Moss being gone. Brett Favre will have to throw at someone, but it was much easier for Harvin in single coverage while Moss was double-teamed. The biggest gainer could be tight end Visanthe Shiancoe. Prior to Moss' arrival, Shiancoe was Favre's go-to outlet with 10 receptions and a touchdown in Minnesota's first two games. He's caught only 10 more passes since with no touchdowns.

It's hard to believe that Titans running back Chris Johnson could be any better, but the threat of Moss -- who surely will be double-teamed most of the time -- will keep opposing secondaries honest and should open more holes for the elusive back. Wide receiver Nate Washington also should benefit from Moss being in Tennessee because he's likely to have seams open against zone coverage as opposing teams key on Moss.

Titans quarterback Vince Young also should be considered for a pickup to store on the bench to see how the troubled receiver's third marriage of the season works out.

Out of desperation from Moss and a great leader in Fisher, who will use him to win the division, Moss should put up his traditional numbers for the final eight games and validate the early draft choices on him during the stretch run and into the fantasy playoffs.

■ TOP WEEK 9 PICKUPS -- Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman could become even better with LeGarrette Blount taking care of the ground game.

Chargers running back Mike Tolbert still is getting his share of playing time and goal-line scores despite the Chargers moving more toward rookie Ryan Mathews.

Lions running back Kevin Smith is getting carries and heating up while rookie Jahvid Best has cooled off considerably from Detroit's first two games.

Colts wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez is available in many leagues and likely will become a larger part of Indianapolis' banged-up offense.

■ BYE WEEK -- Denver, Jacksonville, St. Louis, San Francisco, Tennessee, Washington.

Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director who covers all sports for multiple publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.

NFL Week 8 Picks and Reasons why

My Las Vegas Review-Journal NFL Challenge Week 8 Selections

Write-up on my Thoughts for NFL Week 8 Action

Week 8 NFL Betting Moves From Las Vegas Sports Books

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

More Favre Drama

Brett Favre is walking around Vikings headquarters on Thursday without his protective boot on and appearing to have no limp whatsoever. Reporters and team officials are all amazed at the speedy recovery from two fractures that occurred just last Sunday night at Green Bay. Vikings coach Brad Childress now looks like he doesn’t have the daunting task of telling Favre he has to sit, so in the process, now Favre can extend his cherished NFL record to 292 consecutive starts this week at New England.

What does that mean to the Las Vegas sports books in regards to the line? Absolutely nothing.

A few sports books have kept the game off the board this week until hearing more information on the injury, while other books have used the key word of “fractured ankle“ as enough info to comfortably keep up a line. Prior to the injury, the Patriots would have been a 4-point favorite. With the injury, the Patriots went to -5 and -6 at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book. Over at the Mirage, when the alert came out that Favre was probable, the Patriots went to -6 ½ and -7 (-105) as people are betting more favorably on the Patriots now that the injured Favre is playing.

Hilton Race and Sports Executive Director Jay Kornegay believes the Favre we’ll see this week will be a shadow of his former self.

“You’re looking at a Favre that’s maybe 80% this week of what he’s been this year so far. We’re essentially getting a Brett FAV this week,” Kornegay said jokingly leaving the “R” and “E” out in a reference to the diluted product the Vikings will have on the field this week.

It’s very probable that his entire show, without the boot on, for everyone to see Thursday was an attempt to garner support in his attempt to start game No. 292. It‘s like he‘s saying, “Hey everyone, look at me, I’m healthy....no limp, see.”

Why else would someone with a fractured ankle take off the boot until game day?

Based on the relative quiet nature of the line movement around town, it’s apparent that most books believe Favre’s ankle is not game ready.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants Odds Director Tony Sinisi sent the Favre probable alert to their clients with a recommendation of Patriots -6 ½.

“We’re treating this like a Favre “out” number,” said Sinisi. “Favre is going to be physically immobile and I expect their game plan to reflect that, taking much out of what Favre brings to the equation in a normal game out of this one.”

Sinisi also said he expects to see a bigger role this week out of running back Adrian Peterson.

That could be good news for Vikings supporters this week. Peterson routinely gets left out of plays called for him as Favre greedily audibles his own plays. A little less Favre and more Peterson could be just what the Vikings need to be competitive this week. 14 turnovers by Favre through six games isn’t acceptable for any NFL quarterback, not even a gimpy Favre.

A wounded, ego driven Favre, who is showing signs of his age, should do the right thing and sit after he takes the first series of snaps to keep his streak alive. Or better yet, just sit and allow Jackson to start the game and show his team that it’s not all about him and his personal records. But that surely won’t happen, because in Favre's eyes, it is all about him and no one else.

Cowboys May Be Fine Without Romo

There are other games of interest this week that don’t quite involve the drama of Favre, but have a much bigger impact than him in regards to the spreads beginning with Tony Romo and the Cowboys. Dallas would have been 11-point favorites with Romo playing this week against Jacksonville, but are now -6 ½ almost everywhere with him out.

We saw the Cowboys look miserable in 2008 when Romo missed three games going 1-2 with Brad Johnson at the helm, but I honestly believe John Kitna will perform better than that. I have a feeling that Kitna may even make the Cowboys a better, more balanced offensive attack, something we haven’t seen all year from Dallas.

Dallas definitely needs a boost of some kind and if they aren’t willing to fire Wade Phillips, the quarterback is a good place to start. Granted, Romo puts up good numbers in the box score, but the box score doesn’t reflect the timing of his bad decisions. When the Cowboys need Romo at his best in key moments this season, he has faltered. Laying the points looks like a good deal against the Jaguars 30th ranked defense.

49ers Start a New Mr. Smith

The San Francisco 49ers are 1-point favorites over Denver in their game being played at Wembley Stadium in London. The 49es will start Troy Smith this week against a shamed Broncos squad coming off a 59-14 beat down, on their home field, against the hated Raiders. Or maybe the Raiders aren’t hated anymore. Maybe Denver’s instilled hate for Oakland and their history against each other left with Mike Shanahan.

This weeks line is definitely a reflection of that blowout loss. The 49ers starting Troy Smith over David Carr while Alex Smith mends baffled many, but Jay Kornegay saw coach Mike Singletary’s logic in it.

“I was initially surprised, but I think Troy Smith’s mobility and similarities to Alex Smith’s game was the deciding factor and they can game plan similarly rather than chnage so much to accomodate Carr's style, “ said Kornegay. “David Carr just can’t move. My past memories of him playing, sad to say, are being sacked and turning the ball over.“

Kornegay leans towards the Broncos in this one stating that their last game was something that was a just a freak happening.

“Denver has been very consistent against every team they played up until last week and have played some of the their best ball away from Mile High stadium.”

Other NFL Moves
The Lions welcome back Matt Stafford this week and have been bet up from 2-point opening favorites to -2 ½ against the Redskins.

The Packers have found supporters coming off their big Sunday night win over the Vikings. The rested Jets opened as a 6 ½-point favorite and have been bet against to -6.

The Dolphins have found some believers in their road performances after going 3-0 thus year as they roll into Cincinnati. The Bengals opened a short 2 ½-point favorite and are down to -2.

San Diego still has some faithful out there that believe they are still very good at home as they moved from a -3 (even) to -3 ½ against the Titans. Vince Young is expected to play for the Titans, but maybe that’s why the bets came in.

The Saints resorted back to their old ways in a home loss to Cleveland last week. Following their week six 31-6 win at Tampa Bay, many us thought the Saints had figured it all out and they’d go on a run like they did in 2009, but the Browns said not so fast. This week they opened pick’em at home against the Steelers and have been bet up to -1 ½. Maybe the Saints just aren’t that good and are about to experience the same fate that many Super Bowl Champs have had over the last decade where they don’t make the playoffs the next year.

The Colts get to avenge their loss to the Texans with a rematch at home. They opened 5-point favorites and have been bet to -5 ½. I’ll side with Houston in this one just because of the key injuries the Colts have to deal with. How will Peyton Manning fare without his faithful and reliable outlet of Dallas Clark. He’ll also be without Austin Collie, Joseph Addai and probably Donald Brown too.

Since it’s a dead number, the best strategy is to wait until Monday to bet. Between the public loving the Colts and extended parlay risk coming from Sunday’s games, the Colts popularity and incurred liability figure to force a move higher. Don’t wait too long Monday though, because if the Sharps like it, the game will go to -4 just because -5 and -5 ½ is a quick number to move off of not requiring full limit bets to move.

Week 6 NFL Betting Trends

By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com

SAN DIEGO at ST. LOUIS... Norv "over" last 4 TY and 18-8 last 26 since late ‘08. Bolts 0-3 SU and vs. line away in 2010. Tech edge-Rams and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
KANSAS CITY at HOUSTON ... Chiefs 10-5 vs. line last 14 as road dog dating back to Herm Edwards’ regime in mid ‘08. Kubiak "over" 6-1 last 7 since late ’09. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Chiefs and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
BALTIMORE at NEW ENGLAND... Rematch from playoffs last January when Ravens got physical and won 33-14! John Harbaugh 10-5-1 vs. line as road dog with Ravens. Ravens also "under" first 3 away TY and "under" 11-5 last 16 as visitor. Belichick, however, "over" first 4 TY and 6 straight since late ‘09. Tech edge-Ravens, based on team trends.
NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY... Saints 0-4-1 vs. line TY and just 4-13-1 last 18 on board since mid ‘09. Bucs, however, just 2-8 vs. line at home for Raheem Morris. TB "under" 12-8 since LY, and last three "under" in series. Tech edge-slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.

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ATLANTA at PHILADELPHIA... Falcs 14-7 vs. line since LY (3-2 in 2010). If Andy Reid a dog note 1-5 mark in role since LY (0-1 TY).Tech edge-slight to Falcons, based on team trends.
DETROIT at NY GIANTS... Giants 1-5 vs. line last 6 as home chalk (1-1 in new Meadowlands, however). G-Men also "over" 16-5 since LY (3-1 TY). Lions ahve covered 4 of first 5 this season. Tech edge-Lions and "over," based on recent Giants trends.
SEATTLE at CHICAGO... Seahawks 0-2 vs. line away TY for Pete Carroll, 1-10 vs. number last 11 on road. Bears now "under" 8-3 last 11 at Solider Field. Tech edge-Bears and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
MIAMI at GREEN BAY... Interestingly, road team is 4-0 vs. line in Miami games TY (Sparano 2-0 vs. number away). Sparano 13-4 vs. points last 17 on road. Sparano also "under" 8-3 last 11 on road. Pack no covers last 3 in 2010. Tech edge-Dolphins and "under," based on Sparano trends.
CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH... Big Ben returns. Brownies, however, covered both meetings LY and 4 of last 5 in series. Mangini 6-4 as road dog since LY. Tomlin only 3-6 vs. line as Heinz Field chalk since LY. Steel now "under" 6-4 last 10 at home after extended period of home "overs" previously. Tech edge-slight to Browns, based on team trends
NY JETS AT DENVER... Jets haven’t played at Denver since 2005, when losing 27-0. Rex Ryan, however, 9-4 vs. line away since LY (4-1 as road chalk). Jets also "over" 5-1 last 6 away. Broncos 2-5 vs. line last 7 at Invesco Field at Mile High. Tech edge-slight to Jets and "over," based on recent Rex trends.
OAKLAND at SAN FRANCISCO... Raiders "over" 6-3 last 9 away. Despite slow start this season, Singletary still 8-3-2 vs. line last 12 at Candlestick. Tech edge-slight to 49ers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
DALLAS at MINNESOTA... Cowboys look to avenge LY’s 34-3 playoff defeat when Romo was bounced around the Metrodome surface. Wade Phillips now "under" 10-4 last 14 on road. Vikes "under" first 3 TY prior to "over" vs. Jets last Monday. Tech edge-"Under," based on "totals" trends.
INDIANAPOLIS at WASHINGTON... Colts 1-2 vs. line as road chalk TY after 6-2 mark in role a year ago. Indy also "over" 7-2 last 9 reg.-season games. Shan 2-1 vs. line at home TY but his Broncos and Skin teams just 14-24 vs. spread last 38 as host. Tech edge-Colts and slight to "over," based on team and Shan and "totals" trends.
TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE (Monday, October 18)... Titans have covered 5 of last 7 in series. Del Rio 3-2 SU and vs. line TY but only 12-25 vs. number since ‘08 and 5-14 vs. spread as host that span (though 2-1 TY). Tech edge-Titans, based on series and team trends.

Kenny White's Las Vegas Oddsmakers Week 6 NFL Rankings

By VI News
VegasInsider.com

 

The Las Vegas NFL Rankings are created by former Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White. All 32 pro football teams are listed below in descending order below by power ratings created by White.Biggest Jumps:
Pittsburgh 11 to 1
N.Y. Giants 13 to 9
Tennessee 15 to 11
Biggest Drops:
New Orleans 8 to 16
Houston 9 to 17

LAS VEGAS NFL RANKINGS - WEEK 6

Rank Team Rating Last Week 1 Pittsburgh 143.3 11 2 Indianapolis 142.1 4 3 New York Jets 141.9 5 4 Green Bay** 141.7 2 4 San Diego 141.7 1 6 Baltimore 141.4 7 6 Dallas 141.4 5 8 Minnesota 141.0 2 9 New York Giants 140.9 13 10 Atlanta 140.8 11 11 New England 140.1 9 11 Tennessee 140.1 15 13 Washington 139.9 14 14 Chicago 139.8 17 15 Philadelphia 139.5 16 16 New Orleans 139.3 8 17 Houston 138.7 9 18 San Francisco 137.8 19 19 Kansas City 137.7 18 20 Cincinnati 136.6 20 21 Miami 136.0 22 22 Denver 135.9 21 23 Seattle 135.5 23 24 Oakland 135.3 24 25 Detroit 135.1 28 26 Jacksonville 135.0 27 27 Cleveland 134.3 25 28 Tampa Bay 133.8 31 29 Arizona 133.7 30 30 St. Louis 132.2 26 31 Carolina 131.4 29 32 Buffalo 129.8 32

** Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) worth 6 points.