Week 9 NFL Betting Moves In Las Vegas Sports Books

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

One of the larger line movements of the week in the NFL was the New York Giants moving from an opener of 5 ½-points to -7 at Seattle on the basis of Matt Hasselbeck being out with a head injury. Moving into the starting assignment will be Charlie Whitehurst, you know good old Charlie, the one that has never thrown an NFL pass in the regular season. The Charlie who held the clip board for the Chargers for the last four years sporting a mullet with a Chargers baseball cap on.

Matt Hasselbeck isn’t the greatest quarterback in the league, but he’s been pretty good in home games this season. The difference of only 1 ½-points between Hasselbeck and Whitehurst seems a quite low, especially when the untested quarterback has to face the Giants front four which has knocked out five quarterbacks this season. A few sports books I talked to said the number was already built in for an injured Hasselbeck and the move came from some bets and an air adjustment on confirmation that Hasselbeck was indeed out.

To be fair to Whitehurst, since he is such an unknown, he did look pretty good in the Seahawks final pre-season game. He started at Oakland and threw for 210 yards and a touchdown in a 27-24 loss. But that is pre-season, a completely different realm we’re talking about now. He’s had all week to practice with the first string and knows the playbook well, but he’s also had all week to watch lots of film and see what the Giants lineman can do all by themselves, without blitzes. It probably doesn't make him rest any easier watching the film of five quarterbacks knocked out either.

It’s looks to me like there is some value with the Giants here laying a touchdown.

The Chargers (3-5) were one of the Sharp plays last week at home against a good Titans squad and they are on them again this week. San Diego goes back on the road, where despite losing all four of their road games this season they were installed as a 1-point favorite at Houston. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Chargers money started coming in and pushed the number to -2 ½ and -3 (+105). The Texans (4-3) missed an opportunity last week at Indianapolis and have been a hard team to figure out, but it's hard to find the logic in the Chargers move other than the fact that the Chargers always go a run at this point of the year after struggling early. The Texans don’t have any injuries to speak of, other than WR Andre Johnson being moved from questionable to probable.

The Patriots opened 5 ½-point favorites at Cleveland and has been against to 4 ½. The Browns are coming off a bye following their huge win at New Orleans while the Patriots have the best record in football. The Sharps were the first to hit this one as well.

The Saints, meanwhile, come off a big win in the Superdome against the Steelers, a win the team really needed to prove to themselves they are still a very good football team after losing to the Browns. They opened 7-point favorites at Carolina and have been bet against dropping the line -6 ½. To show how drastically the rating and perception of the Saints have changed, The Saints were -13 at home against the Panthers in week 4, a game the Saints barely won 16-14. Many bettors who play the favorites keep waiting for the Saints team from last year to reappear. They thought they were back after scoring 31 points at Tampa Bay in week 6, but that remains their highest output of the season. The last two weeks, the Saints have scored only 17 and 20 points and are 3-5 against the spread this season. It’s tough taking a very bad team with the Panthers, but the Saints have been prone to playing to their opponents level all season.

The Colts, fresh off their Monday night, win get no love in Philly this week as the Eagles opened up a 1-point favorite and have been bet up to -3 (EV). Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson are both going to play which makes them come in fully loaded, but I still can’t get over what Kerry Collins and Kenny Britt did to the Eagles defense two weeks ago. Britt went for 225 yards and three touchdowns in a track meet against the Eagles secondary. What’s Peyton Manning going to do to them? He gets Austin Collie back this week and has another weapon in Anthony Gonzalez back with one game under his belt. Can Michael Vick just turn it on again after being out so long?

Derek Anderson was named the starting quarterback for Arizona in their game at Minnesota this week. The Vikings opened as a 9-point favorite and are currently sitting at -7 ½, but the moves came from bets and not just occurances from the past week forcing adjustments. Randy Moss is gone and Anderson was named the starter Monday. The combination of the two may have been what the Sharps were looking at when they forced the move taking +9, +8 1/2 & +8. That, and also that the Viking just aren't good to be laying a touchdown or more to anyone.

The Dolphins are 4-0 on the road and travel to Baltimore where the Ravens were installed a 6-point favorite. Dolphins money has come in dropping the line a half-point to -5 ½.

The Steelers got a little action for their Monday night game at the train wreck in Cincinnati opening as a 5 ½-point favorite and moving to -6. We know the Bengals have talent, but they might be the worst coached team in football outside of the Cowboys. Because the game is in prime time and the spotlight is on Cincinnati, we might actually see players like Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens step up big because limelight seems to be the only thing that gets those two going.

One of the games that has been virtually untouched looks to be one of the better matchups of the week based on their records. The Buccaneers (5-2) visit the Falcons (5-2) for the right to take control of their division. The Falcons opened as 9-point favorites and it hasn‘t moved. The Falcons have kind of gone under the radar but have been one of the more consistent teams in the league, only losing at Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

Not to take anything away from what Tampa Bay has done, because it has been an amazing run, but their record has come at the expense of the Browns, Panthers, Bengals, Rams and Cardinals and they were all very close games. The two teams they played that are good teams wiped them out convincingly, Pittsburgh 38-13 and New Orleans 31-6. On the season, they have allowed 27 more points scored on them than they have scored themselves. Yes, they are 5-2, but it looks like another beat down coming.

Had this been last year, the small money would have already helped propel this game to double-digits based on their performances this year. A few books have told me that they actually have more tickets wagered on the Buccaneers than the Falcons, which is insane and shows the current state the small bettors are in .So what looks to be an easy win by a favorite is now treated with apprehension and caution. The underdogs are rolling this year and it’s playing with bettors minds. This was the first game on the board I liked and I didn’t care what the spread was. I feel pretty comfortable about seeing a 17-point route.

Las Vegas Football Betting Moves: Week 3 NFL & College Football

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Bettors are approaching week 3 of the NFL as if they’re walking on egg shells. After getting soundly beaten the last two weeks by the sports books, many are handicapping the games with hesitancy and reluctance while doubting their own skills. Just when you expect a team to zig then they zag. Nothing is sacred anymore. We can no longer pick on the bad teams, because other than the Bills, we don’t know who they really are. And we can’t ride an elite team because we’re not sure of that either. It’s like we’re stuck in parity-ville and the price of admission is getting expensive for the bettors.

So you want to ride a team’s losing streak like everyone did last year for the first seven weeks, but you‘re in a quandary of what‘s right, wrong and real. Yes, the Bills are bad, but 14 points against the Patriots who showed further signs of being nothing like the 2007 Patriots after melting in New Jersey last week doesn't sound promising.

I know, we can pick on the Browns. They’re 0-2 and they were ripe for the picking last year, but when I look at their games this year, they have been competitive, pushing in week one at Tampa Bay and barely losing at home to the Chiefs and now I have to lay 10 ½-points with the Ravens, a team that only scored only 10 points in each of their first two games. No Thanks, that new and improved offense Baltimore has looks as bad as the Browns with Seneca Wallace running the show.

When I look at the NFC with their six 0-2 teams, it doesn’t get any easier. Despite the Texans being 2-0 with two great wins, picking on Dallas this week doesn’t seem like a good deal. Nor does putting any faith in the Vikings laying 11 against the Lions, a Detroit team whose offense looks crisper than the Vikings with Brett Favre looking like he’s still working out training camp kinks.

Aaahh, the Rams. Yes, there’s a team to jump all in against. But wait, they’ve got a push and cover in their two games and they have a quarterback who looks nothing like Marc Bulger. And I have to lay 3½-points with the Redskins, a team who should be 0-2 as well. No thanks!

I could make a case for Cincinnati laying 3-points at Carolina. I like the angle of picking on Jimmy Clausen in his first start against a very good Bengals defense. But that’s when the doubt comes into play and week one and two ghosts of bad plays keep returning and reminding me of how great a play it was to take the Eagles last week against the Lions and their back-up starting.

So maybe I’ll dodge what appears to be a slam dunk of a play and reverse my fortunes by being the opposite bettor which would have been a great strategy the last two weeks. I usually loves the home dogs, but maybe in these drastic times I do the opposite and play the road favorites. It makes good sense to me, so I’ll stick with the Bengals, or wait, maybe Carolina. Or, maybe just a coin flip will do and let that fate decide where I go.

Of course this is all an exaggeration, but it’s based on real moments I’ve seen from all my years behind the counter when bettors go into a tail spin. Right now, the bettors have no confidence and are trying to get a read on anything possible to give them a lean.

This is the time when many bettors turn to paid handicapping services. If you don’t have a feel for it, and know it, and have to have action on the games as we all do, let the experts who are doing well help you. VegasInsider.com handicappers Bruce Marshall and Dave Cokin are both seeing things very clearly now. Pay them to get you out of the rut and back on track.

Here’s a look at some of the moves that have happened at Las Vegas sports books this week beginning with the 49ers visiting the Chiefs. The perception and ratings on the 49ers are back in order despite being 0-2. Their play Monday night showed everyone that 49ers ARE who we thought they were. In the Sunday night opener the Chiefs were a 1 ½-point favorite and by kickoff the 49ers had already been bet up to -1. The revised opener on Tuesday morning was -2½ and then bet up to where it sits now at -3.

The Eagles initially opened as 1-point favorite at Jacksonville with Kevin Kolb expected to start. Despite Andy Reid saying Kolb would be his starter, he quickly changed his mind Tuesday and announced Michael Vick would start. The initial reaction from the sports books had the Eagles -3 (even) but since has been bet down to 2½ flat.

The Colts opened up Sunday night as a 3½-point road favorite at Denver, but after watching the Colts look like their old self again against the Giants, the line quickly moved to -4½ and then eventually -6 by Monday afternoon until getting some Bronco buy-back putting the game where it’s at now at -5½.

The Patriots number has finally found a solid home at -14 against the Bills after climbing the ladder up from the opener of -11½. Had the Patriots beat the Jets in the same fashion as they did to Cincinnati a week earlier, this line would have been -17, but they didn’t and showed some major flaws in the loss.

Other games that have moved include the Packers dropping a full point down to -3 at Chicago, the Chargers moving from -3½ to -5½ at Seattle, and the Saints dropping from the early opener of -6 to -3½ against the Falcons following the Monday night game.

College Moves
All these games have moved two points are higher from the opener:
Central Michigan +6 ½ from the opener of +8 ½ at Northwestern
Temple +13 ½ from the opener of +16 ½ at Penn State
Connecticut -20 from the opener of -18 against Buffalo
Georgia -1 at Mississippi State where they opened as the 1-point favorite
Air Force -13 ½ at Wyoming from the opener of -10 ½
Kansas State -7 from the opener of -5 against Central Florida
San Jose State +30 from the opener of +34 at Utah
LSU -10 from the opener of -6 ½ against West Virginia
UTEP -11 ½ from the opener of -9 ½ against Memphis
UNLV -10 ½ from the opener of -8 ½ against New Mexico
Arkansas State +11 at Troy from the opener of +13

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NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Line Moves; All Games 6 1/2 Points or Less

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

I love the NFL schedule this week because it’s filled with parity where no game has a spread higher than -6 ½. Between the games where we have the bad teams playing each other and higher rated teams playing on the road against lesser rated teams, it makes for a nice mix of action and differing opinions. In situations like these, the Las Vegas sportsbooks usually have an edge just because they can chop up all the parlay’s giving them a high overall hold percentage.

However, just because a spread is low, you still can’t stop the perception of the public which generally makes or breaks the sports books weekend. On Sunday, five of the 13 games already have strong public support.

It’s a tough sell telling the public that the Steelers and Eagles are decent plays, despite being at home, with quarterbacks they aren’t comfortable with.

The first week has seen a limited amount of sharp action as far as line movements go because the lines have been up and bet into at most books since April 29. From week two on, we’ll see much more action on Monday’s centered around the key numbers. Every game this week is currently sitting on or around the key numbers of 3, 4, 6 & 7, which is highly unusual; no dead numbers at all this week.

While there hasn’t been a lot of sharp money come in on the NFL games this week, the small action is piling up and has a few teams weighted pretty heavily in ticket counts. Should teams like the Dolphins, Falcons, Colts, Titans, Packers and Cowboys all cover Sunday, it’s going to be a rough week for the house which then leads into a real tough position on Monday with everyone already having the three-teamer of the Ravens, Chargers and the game over tied into Sunday's action.

The few moves that did come in this week was action on the Panthers at +7, the Redskins +4, and the Seahawks at +3. With “3“ being so key, most books have either gone to the Seahawks +3 (-120) or the 49ers -2 ½ (-120). The same situation has occurred with money on the Browns at +3.

I love debating the theory putting added money (-120) on and around the number “3”. While my theory is wrong every five or six years when the “3’s” do land on the number at a high rate, my contention -- which is supported by the numbers -- is that over the long haul a book will fare much better by moving on and off the number at a flat price just because the sheer volume. Juicing out each number which will pad the overall win enough to offset when the “3” does land and the book gets sided. From a competitive standpoint, a book figures to get all the action at their shop at flat money -- increasing volume -- when everyone else is -120, which is essentially a closed sign for many bettors on those type of games.

Last season 15% of all games landed “3” and the year prior it was a low 10%. It is annually the highest percentage of any margin of victory in the NFL, however, not all of those games are won by the favored side and not all of those are games where the spread was “3”.

The one book in Las Vegas who consistently uses flat numbers is the South Point. They currently have Tampa Bay and San Francisco at 2 ½ flat.

On the college side of the board, there have been kinds of moves from the Monday openers. Oklahoma State moved from -10 to -14 against Troy. The move doesn’t stand as strong as some of the others just because it takes less money to move the number since it is an added game with limited wagering compared to the others.

It’s no surprise to see a MAC game be one of the largest movers of the week. Ohio opened a 7-point home favorite to Toledo and the number has jumped all the way to -10.

One of the better games of the week has Florida State visiting Oklahoma with both sharp and public support for the Seminoles after last weeks performance. The Sooners opened a 9-point home favorite and have been pushed down to -6 ½.

Other game that have seen some sharp moves include the sides of Georgia Tech on the road, Army, Kent State, UNLV, Tennessee, San Diego State and UCLA.

The two feature games of the week, Miami-Ohio State and Penn State-Alabama, saw early action on the dogs. According to a few Las Vegas sports book ticket counts, the public loves the Crimson Tide but are a bit skeptical with the Buckeyes.

That's all for now, enjoy all the games and good luck at the betting window.