Saturday, January 22, 2011

Roberts Championship Game Selections: Looks Like Jets-Packers Super Bowl

Brad Smith Started the roll on Pittsburgh early in week 15 with a KO return TD
After a long and hard thought out process, I finally came up with my wagering strategy for this weekend. I played the under in both games for a full unit as my top plays, but I also negated some of what I perceive as value on those plays by playing half-unit plays on a few others.

I took the Jets money-line at plus-185 and the Packers at minus-3 ½ for a half-unit each. I round-robined the Jets M/L, Packers and the two unders for a half-unit each with two, three and four team parlays.

Defense looks to be the underlying scenario for each team in these games as matchups between them have already suggested earlier this season. Both Packers-Bears games this season went under considerably and yet the total is 43.5 for that match. The Bears have been able to contain Aaron Rodgers more so than others this season. Even though Rodgers is on a roll right now, he should be expected to have some difficulties.

The reason for siding with the Packers rests with the defense who has picked off Jay Cutler three times in their two games against only one TD pass. Look for Cutler to force the action as the pressure gets a little heavy thanks to Charles Woodson blitzing and Clay Mathews just playing his normal game.

The Jets set the tone in their earlier game this season and maintained it almost throughout. If the game is close, the Jets win. They used the week 15 Pittsburgh game to rebound during a late season slump and they have been rolling ever since. In this instance, you have to either lay the points with Pittsburgh or take the money line. In 89% of Championship games, the spread never comes into question; it’s either and upset or the spread is covered.

Packers defense should stifle Bears' Cutler, again.
1 Unit Plays

½ Unit Plays
Packers -3 ½
Jets +185 Money Line

½ Unit 2, 3, 4 Round Robin
Packers -3 ½
Jets M/L +185

Proposition Value
James Starks' listed rushing yards is 53.5 under -120 at the MGM properties while he is 45.5 flat at Cantor Gaming properties. This is a great spot to middle yardage with plays on each side and hope that he lands in between the numbers so you win both sides. I played 2 units on the under at MGM while playing one unit on the over at Cantor Gaming. I like Starks to continue the Packers under theme in the rushing game against the Bears this year, but can't let the value on landing on a very probable middle slip away.  

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