VegasInsider.com
Handicapping the NFL Playoffs can be a bit tricky.
The knee-jerk reaction is to back home teams. After all, they have been a solid-moneymaker, going 157-125-6 ATS (55.6%), dating back to 1980.
Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved like an Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water.
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The key is breaking the playoffs down into rounds. And in doing so it’s wise to remember the oddsmakers have made the visiting teams more attractive (read: value-laden) than ever before.
Let’s break down opening round games involving No. 3 or lower seeded teams with these three time-tested theories. Note: all results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are since 1980, unless noted otherwise.
Stun guns
Teams in NFL Wild Card round contests playing off a straight up season ending loss as a favorite tend to bounce back up off the carpet, going 30-15-1. (New Orleans, Kansas City)
Better yet, dress them up as dogs and they improve to 14-4. (Kansas City)
Double pressure
Teams off back-to-back season ending losses apply their own tourniquet as they stop the bleeding, going 20-9 (Philadelphia).
Put them at home and they zoom to 13-4 (Philadelphia).
ATS diabetes
Teams off a season ending blowout win in which they beat the spread by more than 20 points suffer from more than a sugar rush, going just 10-17-2 during this round (N.Y. Jets).
Feed them a field goal (+3) or more and they die a slow death, going 1-7.
There you have it. I’ll be back next week with a peek at the Divisional Round playoff matchups.
Good luck as always.
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