Monday, January 10, 2011

NFL Divisional Playoffs Betting Notes

By Bruce Marshall

There are some dynamics worth mentioning that are unique to this round. Since 1990, when the playoffs were expanded from 10 teams to 12, all Division Round hosts have been off a "bye" and a week of rest. And almost all of the "powerhouse" NFL teams in recent memory are from that first-round "bye" group, including 51 of the last 64 Super Bowl participants since '78 (when the first-round "bye" was introduced). At least one top seed, however, had met defeat division-round action in the four seasons prior to a year ago, when the Saints and Colts both prevailed. The Falcons and Patriots are thus forewarned. But, recalling the often-lopsided nature of these games, don't be surprised by an absence of drama this weekend, either.

Whatever. Following are the point-spread results in various spread categories of NFL Division Round playoff games since 1975. Our "charting" begins with the '75 season because, prior to then, playoff home teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record. A "margin of victory" chart for the games since 1975 is included as well.
Favorites vs. line...71-65-3 (1 pick)
Favorites straight up...97-42
Favored by 0-3 points...8-13-1
Favored by 3 1/2-6 1/2 points...25-22-1
Favored by 7-9 1/2 points...26-18
Favored by 10-13 1/2 points...10-8
Favored by 14 points or more...3-3-1
Home teams straight up...99-41
Home teams vs. spread...73-64-3
Home favorites vs. spread...69-62-3
Home underdogs vs. spread...3-2
Home picks vs. spread...1-0
Over/under (since 1986)...49-47

1-3 points...34
4-6 points...11
7-10 points... 23
11-13 points...10
14 points or more...62

No comments:

Post a Comment