Thursday, January 13, 2011

NFL Divisional Playoff Betting Trends and Leans

By Bruce Marshall

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH... Last four meetings all decided by exactly 3 points. Underdog side is 6-1-1 vs. number last 8 in series. Last three meetings "under" after 6 of previous 7 had gone "over." Ravens 4-2 SU and vs. line in postseason since ‘08, Steelers 7-1 vs. spread in playoffs since ‘05. Tech edge-slight to Ravens and "under," based on series and "totals" trends.

GREEN BAY at ATLANTA... Packers 3-1 vs. line as dog this season, 16-5 vs. spread in role since ‘07, and 19-5 last 24 as dog since late in ‘06 campaign. Falcons, however, are 10-4 as home chalk since last season, and 21-9 overall as chalk since HC Mike Smith arrived in 2008. Pack "under" 11-6 this season. Tech edge-slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.

SEATTLE at CHICAGO... Seahawks just 2-6 vs. line on road this season, and all nine of their losses have been by 15 points or more. Seattle now 3-14 vs. number on road since late in the ‘08 campaign. Seahawks "over" 12-4-1 this season, and "over" 13-5 last 18 as visitor. Bears 6-2 vs. line last 8 in 2010. Tech edge-"Over" and Bears, based on "totals" and Seahawks’ road trends.

NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND... Belichick surprisingly has dropped his last five playoff pointspread decisions, although Patriots roared down stretch this season, covering 10 of last 13. Interestingly, Jets and Patriots have split their regular-season pointspread decisions the past five years, with home teams winning and covering all such games the past two years. Rex Ryan 8-5 as dog since ‘09. Belichick "over" 15-3 last 18 since late in ‘09 campaign, Jets "over" 16-6 last 22 since late ‘09, and these two were "over" in both of their 2010 meetings. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

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