Thursday, December 30, 2010

NFL Week 17 Betting Trends


OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY...Odd series visitor dynamics were finally altered in earlier 23-20 Raiders win, which stopped Chiefs’ 9-game cover streak at Oakland. Now action switches to Arrowhead, where Raiders are 6-0-1 vs. line in last seven visits. Last four meetings at KC also "under." Raiders-back-and-forth with covers on road TY, by that pattern due for a "W" here.Tech edge-"Under" and Raiders, based on series trends.MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND...Curiously, Miami has played very well at Foxborough lately, standing 4-0-1 vs. line last five visits in a visitor-oriented series (road team 8-2-1 vs. number last 11 meetings). Of course, Dolphins have continued their solid road play this season, now 6-1 SU and vs. number, and 17-5 vs. spread last 22 away from home under Sparano.Belichick "over" 8 of last 9 in 2010Tech edge-Dolphins and "over," based on team and series trends.
TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS...Titans broke 3-game spread losing streak vs. Indy with the backdoor of all covers Dec. 9 at Nashville. That one also went "over" after 8 of previous 9 had gone "under" in this AFC South series. Titans have also dropped last four vs. spread on road TY after covering first three as visitor in 2010. Indy needed a last-minute onside kick return TD vs. Jags to break recent 3-game spread losing streak and give Colts their first cover at Lucas Oil Stadium in last four tries in 2010. Indy "under" 4-3 at home this season. Tech edge-"Under," based on "totals" trends.
JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON...Houston has won SU in its last four closing-week games, all victories by 7 or more. Texans also 6-2 all-time at home vs. number against Jags, although Kubiak just 2-9 vs. number last 11 TY. Jags, who won first meeting on deflected Hail Mary, now "over" 5 of last 7 vs. Houston (first meeting also "over"), and both of these teams "over" 10-5 this season. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Texans, based on "totals" and series trends.
PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND...Brownies have covered last two meetings vs. Steelers in Cleveland, although Mangini just 1-6 vs. spread last 7 on board in 2010. Steel just 2-3 vs. line as visitor since Big Ben returned in October, and Tomlin also "under" 5-1 last 6 TY after Dec. 23 win over Panthers. Brownies also "under" last four TY. Tech edge-"Under," based on "totals" trends.

CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE...Bengals have given Ravens fits lately, winning and covering last three meetings. Five of last six in series "under" as well. John Harbaugh just 6-7 vs. spread last 13 as host, although Cincy just 2-5 vs. line away TY, and 3-8 vs. number last 11 as visitor. Tech edge-"Under" and Ravens, based on "totals" and Bengals’ road trends.
MINNESOTA at DETROIT...Lions now 12-3 vs. line in 2010 and 6-1 vs. points at Ford Field, although Detroit lost and failed to cover at Minnesota back on Sept. 26. Meanwhile, Lions also "over" 7-1-1 last 9 at home since late ‘09. Tech edge-Lions and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON...G-Men 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 vs. line last 5 in series, and 7-1-1 vs. spread last 9 vs. Skins. NY has also won and covered last four visits to FedEx Field. Tech edge-Giants, based on series and team trends.
CHICAGO at GREEN BAY...Green Bay has won its reg.-season finale seven years running, with 6-1 spread mark in those games. Pack had won and covered last 4 in series prior to bitter 20-17 loss at Chicago back on Sept. 27. Note last five "under" in series. Tech edge-"Under" and slight to Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.
DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA...Birds broke 3-game losing streak to Cowboys in win at Dallas Dec. 12, but Cowboys have still covered last four meetings. Note Dallas now "over" last 12 this season after Cards game and Andy Reid "over" 10-5 in 2010, and Birds 22-11 "over" last 33 on board. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.
BUFFALO at NY JETS...Jets have only covered 1 of last 4 at home TY, while Bills on 6-3-1 spread run. Bills have also covered 5 of last 6 on road TY, and have surprisingly covered last 4 as series visitor. Road team 8-1 vs. line last 9 in series. Jets also "over" 11-4 TY and 15-5 last 20 since late ‘09. Tech edge-Bills and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
CAROLINA at ATLANTA...Panthers have lost and failed to cover their last two at Georgia Dome, and Carolina just 2-5 vs. line on road TY. Falcons 10-4 vs. line at home since ‘09. John Fox swan song? Tech edge-Falcons, based on team trends.
TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS...Bucs very inside-out this season, poor vs. line at home but 6-1 vs. spread away, now 8-1 last 9 vs. number on road and 10-2 last 12 away since mid ‘09. Saints have covered 4 of last 5 in series, however. Raheem Morris "under" last 3 on road TY.Tech edge-Bucs, based on recent road mark.
ST. LOUIS at SEATTLE...NFC West on line! Rams broke 4-game lose and cover streak vs. Seahawks with 20-3 win back on Oct. 3. Rams 10-4 vs. line last 14 TY and 5-2 vs. spread away in 2010. Seahawks' former strong home trends fading, now 1-3 vs. line last 4 at Qwest Field. Tech edge-Rams, based on team trends.
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO...49ers have won and covered last three series meetings, but SF just 2-4 vs. spread at Stick TY. Meanwhile, Cards only 1-5 vs. line last 6 on road TY. Tech edge-49ers, based on team trends.
SAN DIEGO at DENVER...Six of last nine "over" in series. Broncos "over" 10-5 TY and 16-5 last 21 dating to late ‘09. Denver 4-8 vs. line last 12 at Invesco Field since mid ‘09. Norv 6-2 SU and vs. line last 8 TY, and 24-11-1 vs. number from Week 8 of reg. season since ‘07. Tech edge-Norv and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

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