Thursday, October 1, 2015

Free Week 5 College Football Selections: Roll Tide between Hedges

Alabama and Georgia last met in 2012 SEC Title game.
Line: Georgia -2, Total: 54.5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Will Alabama really start SEC play at 0-2 for the first time since 1990?

Nick Saban has recruited better than anyone over the past few seasons, yet still can't manage to get a top-flight quarterback into the program, which cost them dearly against Ole Miss. The field-goal kicking game has also been struggling. However, what they do well is control the ground game, and they should be able to neutralize Georgia running back Nick Chubb and put all the pressure on QB Greyson Lambert, who has looked outstanding thus far, but against opponents not nearly as good as Alabama.

Alabama is an underdog for the first time in 72 games, but calling Georgia the favorite is subjective and based on how big a home-field edge you give the Bulldogs between the hedges. There's a big difference between home-field value against South Carolina and against Alabama. When the Tide rolls into town, cut their opponents’ home rating in half. So while you might give Georgia +6 at home against South Carolina, the advantage may be only +2 to +3 against Alabama. And we have Alabama rated about 4-points better than Georgia on a neutral field, so by this logic, Alabama should be -1 on Saturday.

Look for the line to drop, so if you're on board with Alabama, get all you can on the money-line as soon as possible.

Predicted score: Alabama 38-24

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