|Matt Cain struggling a reason to side with OVER tonight.|
The good news for the Giants (58-41) is that the last time Cain (1-6, 5.88 ERA) was favored, they won (June 13 at Milwaukee). The bad news is that Cain couldn't make it out of third inning Wednesday at Fenway Park as he served up three homers and allowed five runs. There's a lot more bad news with Cain, such as allowing lefties to .352 off him and Cincinnati has a couple of hot lefties hitting with Jay Bruce belting his 22nd and 23rd home runs in last night's 7-5 win and Joey Votto extending his hit streak to 10 games. Bruce's 77 RBIs are tied for the NL lead.
A wager on San Francisco in its current form behind Cain doesn't sound attractive at all, especially with the Reds playing well lately winning six of its last eight games. Taking a price with Cain is one thing, but laying it is borderline crazy. But the Reds are no bargain taking +120, either.
Yes, Cincinnati (39-60) is playing well but Reed (0-4, 6.75) has had some issues with the biggest being the team has lost all six of his starts. Five of those starts have gone OVER the total with him being a big part of the reason coupled with a Reds bullpen closing out his games, a bullpen with a 5.34 ERA that is historically one of the worst ever.
Tonight's total is set at a low of 8 (OV -125) at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook with the majority of other books using 8.5 (UN -120).
The total looks like the best angle to play in this one. Let's go OVER 8 runs and hope these two starters do what they have been doing consistently all season -- allowing lots of hits.