Tuesday, December 8, 2009
College Notes: Bowl Season Allows Players a Better Edge Against the Sports Books
College Notebook by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today Las Vegas
College Football officially moves into the Bowl season now and all the Nevada Sports Books are hard at work setting their lines. The Bowl games can be hit or miss with Books because they are isolated. The Books rarely lose, but when the figures are all added together from the duration of the first bowl game to the BCS Title game, the bettors have had years when they get the best of it.
On a normal College Football weekend there are dozens of games to choose from spanning the entire day. The majority of the bettors during bowl season bet on the day of the game, meaning they are now less likely to play four team parlays or higher which equates to better odds of the player winning.
Sports Books make a living off of feeding themselves with consistent losing parlays played by the public. The average Joe has his betting patterns changed from a strategy of shooting for the big win by betting small on parlays on a normal full schedule, to maybe betting a little more with less games.
So instead of playing that six team parlay – a huge house edge – the bettor now plays a straight bet or a side to total parlay at 13 to 5 odds. If Las Vegas had wagering restrictions like Delaware does – but in a reverse manner – and was only allowed to take straight bets, several Sports Books would close the doors.
Some people make investments and link several games together for all the Bowls, but the bulk of the action for the games will come on game day. The average Joe in Las Vegas wants to keep his cash on him as long as possible. He likes to bet the game before kickoff, root for his side and collect, all in the same day.
So in a way, the Bowl season itself actually allows the Public to do better whether they know it or not.
The Sharps are eagerly awaiting the initial line. Salivating is more like it. As professionals, they already have their lines set based on their rating and are ready to bet all they can on that opinion on whatever games the Sports Books have as the largest variance from their own number.
These guys usually do very well in the bowl season and it’s a good idea to watch the early line movement. Make a note to file on those games and use the moves as a tool when you eventually make your wager as the game gets closer.
The Sharps are coming off a season where they did really well. Most Nevada Sports Books had a great College Football season, but not on straight bets.
Next week, we’ll review a few of the best games and some of the early moves.
Even though the Fiesta Bowl BCS match-up of TCU-Boise State will turn out to be one of the better games, I don’t like how the College Football machine basically frowned upon each team by putting them together. It’s as if to say, "okay, you both made a BCS bowl from your non-BCS conferences, so go play it, and leave us alone."
The Fiesta Bowl did a great job by getting both undefeated teams because they know it will garner lots of attention. Being to say they are one of the only two Bowl games that have two undefeated teams is nice, but I would have rather seen an opportunity to have four undefeated teams at seasons end to help the cause in getting a playoff system going.
I would have also liked to have seen Boise State or TCU get the chance to play Florida. If either team would have beat a power like Florida, who was No. 1 ranked nearly all season, it would have really been a boost to their conference’s profile.
As it stands now, everyone wipes their hands clean of what had been a mounting thorn in the side of College Football and their perfect BCS system.
College Basketball Notes:
UNLV’s Good Run Great For Local Books
It’s apparent by how well UNLV played on the road last week that their win over Louisville was no fluke. They are a pretty good team, which will bode well for the Las Vegas Sports Books, in particular the local Books.
The excitement level of the Las Vegas locals is taken up a notch when the Rebels do well and for many, if they can’t be at the game itself, there is no better place to go watch the game than a Sports Book. Dozens will gather wearing their Rebel Red, cheering and chanting in unison.
The added boost in public excitement doesn’t necessarily transcend through write figures individually for the game, but the incremental walk-through traffic helps all areas of the casino that include table games, slots, restaurants and bars.