Friday, December 25, 2009

Roberts College Football Bowl Selections: Bad Santa Re-Gifted and Has Left, Time to Win!

What a great start to the Bowl season. It was as if Bad Santa came down my chimney, kicked me in the nads, flipped me off, grabbed my wallet, drank all my bourbon, and then left in my car. Needless to say, the beginning to my wagering season has been tough.

I have started out 0-3 betting on games that I really liked only to watch them get blasted. Other than losing the money itself, at least the games were such blowouts that there was no pain involved. It almost like the tale of shark-bite victims that say the sheeering of the sharp teeth into the flesh leave a numbness of not knowing that your leg is gone.

If I had to do it all over again, I would still take Oregon State, Cal, and Nevada, that is if I didn’t see the score. The ratings I keep told me all three of those games were a higher margin than the spread indicated which has to be wagered upon.

I could waver and drastically adjust, but everything circles around. Once you over-adjust and have a knee-jerk reaction, that’s when you miss out when the true numbers come to fruition. The only adjusting done was to downgrade the Pac-10 participants slightly because of how badly they looked while at the same time, upgrading the Mountain West rating.

It’s obvious the Mountain West is taking no prisoners right now and are relishing in their pride after going 3-0 in their games thus far. In all three of their wins, each Mountain team was an underdog including Wyoming who was getting 12.5-points to Fresno State.

Along those same lines we can downgrade the WAC somewhat because of their awful 0-2 record against the spread and straight up. Both of their entries had the largest spreads of the Bowl season with Fresno State (-12.5) and Nevada (-11.5).

The two conferences collide against one another in the Fiesta Bowl January 4 with TCU a 7-point favorite over Boise State. No adjustment has been made by the sports books on TCU since two of their representaives got bashed. What it says is that the level of play in the WAC with all their gaudy offensive numbers don’t match-up well with play of other conferences. TCU was a strong play before the WAC was unmasked, but even stronger now due to the value of a conference rating shift.

Here’s a few games over the weekend that I will play in hopes of getting back some of the cash Santa took from me. Just because the favorites have gone 1-5 to start the bowl season, it will not deter me. I'm just sorry my rating didn't have a better feel for what was going to happen so I could hae cashed with the money lines on thos games.

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl @ Detroit
Ohio -3 vs Marshall: The Thundering Herd has lost 3 of their last 4 coming in to this game with the one win  against SMU. Ohio nearly won the MAC Title game, losing 20-10 to Central Michigan, but had won four straight going in. Marshall is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. MAC teams.

Meineke Car Bowl @ Charlotte
North Carolina +2.5 vs. Pitt: This is like a home game for Butch Davis and his Tar Heels. Regardless of where they have played, Davis has had his team ready for the Bowl season. UNC is 5-2 straight up in their last seven bowl games and 5-1-1 ATS. Pitt lost a tough season finale to Cincinnati and have a dynamic running attack, however they are coached by Dave Wannstedt. In Pitt’s last 11 Bowl games they are 3-8.

Emerald Bowl @ San Francisco
USC -7 vs. Boston College: The Trojans could be without Joe McKnight and they have three other players suspended, however, the talent pool is grossly weighted with USC. Now it’s a matter of them executing and Pete Carroll with time to work on it usually always gets it done. Look for USC to come out strong being once again the pillar of strength representing the Pac-10’s pride.

Music City Bowl @ Nashville
Kentucky +7 vs. Clemson: Clemson is coming off back to back losses which is a bad trend for any ACC team when facing an SEC team in the Bowls. In the last seven situations it has occurred the ACC has failed miserably going 0-7 straight up and 1-6 ATS. Look for the ACC to be exposed once again as one of the worst BCS conferences.

Independence Bowl @ Shreveport
Georgia -7 vs. Texas A & M +7: Jerrod Johnson has really come on at QB for the Aggies giving them the ability to quick score against anyone. The problem has been their defense. Witness the Aggies last game against Texas where they hung around all game before losing 49-39. The total should fly over in this one even though it’s as high as 67. Georgia has beaten everyone they were supposed to this season except Kentucky, losing their other three teams to top-10 ranked teams. A & M’s defense should allow Bulldog QB Joe Cox to write his own score.

Eagle Bank Bowl @ Washing D.C.
UCLA -5.5 vs. Temple: UCLA is the weakest of the bowl teams to make it from the Pac-10, needing Navy to beat Army to get in. The best thing UCLA has going for them is Coach Rick Neuheisel who is 6-1 ATS in bowls. He gets his team ready and psyched to face anyone when having time to prepare for an opponent. We’ve seen it the last two seasons where he has won big games to start the year despite not having a very good offensive attack. Having QB Kevin Prince as the starter for UCLA will be huge. MAC teams are 1-7 straight up and 0-8 ATS coming off a loss going to Bowls.

Champs Sports Bowl @ Orlando
Miami -3 vs. Wisconsin: This will be the first chance we get to pick against a Big-10 team in the bowls, a trend that has worked out well in recent years. Miami is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 bowl games while the Big-10 went 1-6 as a conference in last years bowls. Big-10 teams are 1-5 straight up and ATS against ACC teams in bowls this decade.

Bowl Record: 0-3

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