Saturday, September 19, 2009

Roberts Week 2 NFL Thoughts: Bears Bounce Back Big with Cutler & Forte

Betting has been relatively quiet this week in the Las Vegas Sports Books. There has been lots of action, but as of 4 pm Saturday, not many of the lines have moved during the week with the exception of the Chargers and Eagles games due to star players being injured. The majority of the sharp bets are likely to come Saturday night and game time Sunday morning.

Lines used are courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook as of 4pm Saturday.

Raiders +3 @ Kansas City (O/U 38.5) Line hasn’t changed since re-opening on Tuesday after the Raiders great showing Monday night. Look for a good tough fought battle with the Chiefs running game of Larry Johnson being the difference.
PICK: Chiefs 24-20

Texans +6.5 @ Tennessee (41) Game opened -7 and sharp money bet Houston right away on Monday. Titans are well rested and will get back to basics this week, the running game, which the Texans can’t stop as evident with Kubiak‘s 1-5 ATS record vs. TENN. PICK: Titans 27-13

Patriots -3.5 @ New York Jets (46) Lots of hype for this game. Original line before Monday night’s tough game was -6.5. Like what the Jet are trying to do in getting themselves pumped up with comments in the media, but I like the Pats to respond as they have the last 8 straight at the Meadowlands vs. the Jets and get the win. PICK: Patriots 28-16

Bengals +9 @ Green Bay (42.5) The Bengals may still be one of the worse teams in football even with Palmer back. Rodgers should get things started early and Grant’s running should seal the deal late. PICK: Packers 31-17

Vikings -9.5 @ Detroit (45) The total has dropped from 46.5, but no movement on the line. Vikings should get cylinders running this week, including Favre, and especially Peterson. Lions should get some scores as well making this a good total bet over, against the Vegas move. PICK: Vikings 34-24

Saints PK @ Philadelphia (45.5) The total has dropped from 47 based on the logic Philly’s defense will give Brees and the Saints offense a tough time and that the Kolb led offense will be conservative. Makes good sense to me, Kolb will struggle. PICK: Saints 23-13

Panthers +6 @ Atlanta (42.5) Can DelHomme be as bad as he has in his last two starts with 9 INT’s? As he goes, so will the team. Tough place to win, but I think Jake gets it going enough to make it a game. PICK: Falcons 28-24

Rams +9.5 @ Washington (37) Sharps took the Rams +10 on Monday and side or total hasn’t moved since then. Rams looked lost offensively last week despite having one of the best RB’s in the game and two good WR’s. Bulger doesn’t have it anymore. PICK: Redskins 23-10

Cardinals +3 @ Jacksonville (43) Sharps took the hook and +3.5 with Cards early in the week and has maintained where it is now. Jags should frustrate the Cards once again with their defense and a dose of MJD. PICK: Jaguars 23-19

Seahawks +1 @ San Francisco (39.5) Two teams going in the right direction. Should be one of the better games of the day. Slight move on the Seahawks taking +1.5 early in week. Singletary will try to control the clock and play low scoring game, but Hawks will dictate their own pace with their passing game. Good total play OVER. PICK: Seahawks 27-22

Buccaneers +4.5 @ Buffalo (41.5) Sharps took +5 early in week and it stayed where it’s at now. I liked what I saw out of both teams in their losses. Tampa got overwhelmed with perfect Romo bombs taking them out of the game. Their running game was very impressive. Should be a close game with the edge to the home team. PICK: Bills 24-21

Browns +3 EV @ Denver (39) A great defensive effort by Denver last week was overshadowed by Cincy’s late score and then Stokely’s play. Bettors are betting the OVER, which opened at 38. The Browns offense looked disorganized at home last week, as did Denver’s. The UNDER looks like a good play here. This line will be -3.5 by game time. PICK: Broncos 20-13

Ravens +3 -125 @ San Diego (40) Money came in on the Ravens +3 flat and will likely be 2.5 by game time. Last season the Ravens responded well on the road as a dog team last year going 6-3 ATS. Chargers will likely set the pace of the game with their pass attack making the total OVER look attractive. PICK: Ravens 27-24

Steelers -2.5 @ Chicago (37.5) Lovie Smith’s teams have always rebounded well after a loss. The Bears are 4-1 under Smith as a home dog after a loss. Expect to see a better Cutler and also a heavy dose of Forte on the ground and in passing game. PICK: Bears 24-17

Giants +3 -120 @ Dallas (45) The total has moved from the original line of 43.5. Romo has won four straight vs. the Giants and he’ll look to do the same as they open their new stadium. Both teams should be able to put some good yardage up creating scores. PICK: Cowboys 27-21

Monday Night Football
Colts -3 -120 @ Miami (42) Both teams had some offensive miscues last, but only the Dolphins lost. Miami’s running game should be the difference here in trying to duplicate what Jones-Drew did to the Indy defense last week. Good home dog, wait until game time bet and get maybe +4 or at least +3.5 if liking the Dolphins. PICK: Dolphins 20-17

Best Bets - Week Two: Clev/Den UNDER 39, Bears +2.5 ML, NYG/Dal OVER 45, Redskins -9.5, Balt/SD OVER 40, Titans -6.5

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