NFL Notes From Week 16 in Las Vegas: Books Have Great Week, But Less Handle Due to Santa

NFL Notebook by Micah Roberts

Gaming Today Las Vegas

What a week it has been for the Las Vegas Sports Books, and for casino executives, it couldn’t have come at a better time. Between the string of big wins for the house in the college football bowls and a nice ratio of favorites and dogs covering on NFL Sunday, the books were able to close out the final quarter and calendar year with an unexpected cherry on top of the budget.

The one variable in the casino that always has the financial department guessing is the Sports Book. Table games and slots can be forecasted almost to the dollar based on expected drop and win because the percentages always hold true; however, the Sports Book win is always a mystery.

The sharpest prognosticators can’t tell who is going to cover week to week and that makes the finance guys in each casino go crazy because they don’t have a grasp on it like the other departments. When the president of the company asks, "How are we going to close out the year," the bean-counter always gives concrete information followed by, "if we have a good week in the Book."

Well, last week was a great week that made everyone happy. Between the bowl games seeing the favorites go 3-6-1 to start and Sunday’s pro football seeing the perfect mix of favorites going 6-6-2, the books did extremely well.

"It was one of the better days of the year," said Las Vegas Hilton Superbook Executive Director Jay Kornegay. "Anytime you can have a 14-point dog win outright with several other dogs covering, it’s going to be a good day. Then when you put in everyone’s favorite, the Colts, losing outright, it helped make the day for us."

The 14-point dog that won outright was the Tampa Buccaneers who beat the Saints 20-17 giving New Orleans their second straight loss at home after winning their first 13 games of the season. The undefeated team coming into Sunday was the Colts who lost to the Jets 29-15. Despite the game being close in the third quarter, Colts coach Jim Caldwell took out all his stars and watched the second stringers lose their first game of the season.

"The public ratio in favor of the Colts was unbelievable," said Palms Director of Race and Sports Fred Crespi. " It was like 5 to 2 in favor of the Colts in ticket counts, however, we had a lot of sharp money throughout the week that kept pounding the Jets which negated what would have been a one-sided win for us on the game."

The win for the books could have been much better had it been another week in the season without the holidays.

"The last two Sundays have really been good for us, but Christmas and the spending habits of our regular guests hurt the possibilities because we didn‘t have as much action like we did the first 14 weeks," said Kornegay.

In the bowl games, bettors have been baffled. Just when you think you’ve got a trend going, the law of averages circles around. The Pac-10 started the Bowl season 0-2 as favorites, so when USC came to bat in the third outing, coupled with the fact the bowl dogs were 1-6 up to that point, the public had beliefs that Boston College would get there as 7-point dogs.

Las Vegas is usually a very pro-USC town, but after seeing them get thumped a few times in conference play and then watching the other Pac-10 bowl teams go down, the action was split on the game. Even the Sharps bet B.C. down from an opener of nine to seven.

The Public loves to play favorites. The scene couldn’t be set up better for the books right now because of all the underdogs winning. The two biggest favorites of the Bowl season have already gone down with Fresno State and Nevada losing outright to Mountain West teams as 12.5-point favorites.

Coming up this week the books hope to close out the year strong with a full slate of games every day through New Year’s. Most of the games are close spreads and evenly matched on paper which is good news for the books because there will be so many varied opinions which will keep the parlay win percentage up high and ensure a winning day regardless of the results.

Most of NFL Week 17’s games will be circled, or take limited action, with the exception of the few games that mean something.

It will be interesting to see how the Bengals approach this game. They won’t want to get Carson Palmer hurt against that nasty No. 1 ranked Jets defense, but they also have a good enough defense to hold the Jets to modest gains despite the Jets fighting for their playoff lives.

It’s funny how things circle around. Had Brandon Stokely not made the miraculous game winning touchdown at Cincinnati in week 1, Denver wouldn’t even be in this position. But here they are in the final week of the season needing help from the Bengals to make the playoffs.

Because of the variables in numbers involving some of these teams, make sure you make your wagers as close as possible to kickoff because the spread will rise or fall drastically based on implications from other games.

Roberts Pro Football Selections for Week 12: Bears & Eagles Look Like Good Plays

Eagles -9 vs. Washington: Crucial game for Philly as they begin their second go-around with division rivals within the next six games. They have to stay as close as possible to Dallas within the division while keeping pace with Green Bay and ahead of the Giants in the wild card chase. The Redskins meanwhile are looking to get their first road win of the season.

Bears +11 @ Vikings: The Bears slim chance of making the playoffs rest with this game. It’s do or die time and I like a team in a position where the entire season is on the line, and they know it, going against a very comfortable team in cruise control where everything has come almost too easy.

Seahawks -3 @ Rams: What a match-up this is, we have the Seahawks who are 0-5 on the road and the Rams who are 0-5 at home. Seattle hasn’t even covered in any of their road losses while at least the Rams have gone 2-3 getting points at home as they are this week. Look for Matt Hasselbeck to have a d ecent game with the Rams not being able to keep up with Kyle Boller starting.

Cardinals/Titans OVER 46: This game could come to a shootout. Not many teams are better than Arizona on the road this season. The Cards are 4-1 against the number on the road going against a Titans team that looks like one of the better teams in the league right now. The Cardinals will not be able to stop the run. Despite their early season success against the run, they have allowed two straight backs to get over 100 yards. They’ll get a heavy dose of Chris Johnson while the Titans defense will be hard pressed to slow the Cards passing attack.

I had an opinion on the Patriots Monday night, but there are too many in agreement which is taking me off the game. The Saints opened 3-point favorites and are down to 1.5 now. Even worse is that the parlay counts in Las Vegas Books are already at a 5 to 1 clip in favor of the Pats. If I had to choose now, I'd go with the home team just because there is too much weight on the bandwagon which always makes one of the wheels fall off.

Mike T's Week 11 Picks: One Dog & Two Favorites For Your Pocket

by Mike T.

It could have been another great week for me if the Dolphins maintained the two score lead they had into the 4th quarter. In the past four weeks I've gone 10-2 with my only two losses being the Dolphins in weeks 7 & 10. That's the way it goes sometimes. I am now 20-10 for the year.

This is a real ugly looking week for me as once again, there are eight teams that are favorites by more than 8 points. There is no doubt that at least one of these big dogs get there on the money line. So here goes....

Raiders +9.5 vs Bengals
I've done quite well with the Bengals often this season. This week however, I'm going against them. The Bengals are on the road for the second straight week after a hard fought win in Pittsburgh. They'll be without star RB Cedric Benson and they do have a bit of a tendency to play down to lesser opponents. The Raiders have FINALLY made the long overdue and much needed switch at QB. Some of the whispers around the locker room seem to indicate that the players are in favor of this move. Gradkowski seems to be a much better student of the game and spend a lot more time studying film and taking notes than Russell does. I expect this team to be fired up and rally around their new starting QB. Look for a close game here with the Raiders having a shot at a late game winning FG.
Raiders 19 Bengals 17

Giants -7 vs Falcons
After a 5-0 start the Giants are now 5-4 and if they have any dreams of making the playoffs this is the game to get back on the winning track. The Giants have had two weeks to prepare for the Turner less Falcons. Former Falcon, now Giant LB Michael Boley may have had a lot to do with helping coaches prepare for this game. I think Brandon Jacobs will have a bigger role this week and for the rest of the year as it is now starting to get cold in the northeast. The biggest obstacle for the Giants will be to contain Tony Gonzalez. If they can hold him to modest numbers the Giants should win this one by two or more scores.
Giants 27 Falcons 13

Eagles -3 at Bears
The line on this game seems about right but I don't think Philly is going to have a hard time beating this team badly. Philly is on a two games skid and like the Giants if they want to see the postseason this is one of those games they just have to win. Jay Cutler has been downright awful especially in night games. They been having trouble scoring on offense and they've given up over 40 points in two of their last four games. Eagles roll.
Eagles 31 Bears 14

Roberts Week 11 Pro Football Selections: Oakland Leads List of 5 Games

Raiders +9 vs. Bengals: A couple of key components have made this an attractive wager on the Raiders, No JaMarcus Russell starting for the Raiders and No Chris Benson running for the Bengals. Each have been intricate in the stagnant awful play of one program and the reversal of fortunes for the other. The change at quarterback for the Raiders will give them a chance to stay in the game and compete for the win, which hasn’t been the case in most of the games Russell has played because he isn’t dedicated enough. Bruce Gradkowski may not have the arm of Russell, but has much more football sense. Look for a possible upset as the Raider faithful gets something to really cheer about this week.

Lions -3 vs. Browns: Maybe Eric Mangini’s offense will open up a bit more because their playing the Lions, but chances are he’ll resort to his usual conservative Big-10 football approach. If Mangini does decide to throw further than 15 yards down field, the Browns are likely to be out of their element because they never do it and won’t have enough practice to execute. The Lions have been competitive in spurts and love to show off their QB’s gun at any chance. Look for big plays between Stafford and Johnson this week and a Lions win by 14.

Patriots -10.5 vs. Jets: Bill Belichick had a tough week in the press and he’s really not happy. He’s also got a grudge going against the Jets and their Coach after the week 2 trash talking. The Patriots lost that first game as they were getting Tom Brady acclimated back into the system. It’s safe to say the Patriots are hitting on all cylinders offensively now and knowing Belichick’s style, he’ll look to pound the Jets with no mercy to make a statement. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Patriots put 40 on the board.

Chargers -4 vs. Broncos: It appears that Chris Simms will be starting for Denver which spells bad news for a team trying to stop a three-game losing streak. Since Denver started 6-0 after beating the Chargers on a Monday night, the two teams have gone in opposite directions with the Chargers winning four straight. San Diego may have been tough to beat even with Kyle Orton starting just because of how well their Defense has played during the win streak. Denver will have their moments in this game led by Knowshon Moreno, but the high powered offense led by Phillip Rivers and a rejuvenated LaDainian Tomlinson will put too many on the board for Denver to keep up.

Titans +5 @ Houston: This was the game that started the demise of the Titans back in week 2. The Titans handled the Texans all game piling on yardage led by Chris Johnson going wild, but gave up too much late to Matt Shaub and Andre Johnson. The Titans are now recharged and playing inspired ball since Vince Young has been in the starting lineup. They have won three in a row and done with ball control and a positive turnover ratio. Look for a high scoring game with the Titans winning by a field goal.

Week 10 NFL Notebook: Las Vegas Books Have a Good day

NFL Notebook by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today Las Vegas

Week 10 of the pro football season turned out well for the Las Vegas Sports Books, especially if being one of the local books that take in lots of parlay action. The Sharps did well with a few games on straight bets, but a few weeks of unpredictable action has produced a rather indecisive betting pattern with the small money on parlays making it good business for the books.

Of the 13 games on Sunday, the Favorites went 4-9 with five dogs winning straight-up. In the game of the day between the Patriots and Colts, it was a bookmakers’ wish come true with the favored team winning but not covering, which eliminates much of the square action on the money line.

I’m still not sure what Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick was thinking by going for a 4th and 2 at his own 28 yard line with just over two-minutes remaining, leading in a 34-28 game. Based on all the boo’s everyone hears at their stadium when a coach punts in a conservative play call from anywhere, most fans were thinking, "This is my kind of coach," at least until it failed.

Even though the Colts were the game of the day and had lots of betting volume on it, the action was split by the public with no presence of sharp play making the game a win-win for the books as the final posted event on the schedule.

"The sharp money had a pretty good day, while the average Joe’s didn’t fare so well." said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay. "Overall it was a decent day for the house"

The biggest winner of the day for the books came as a surprise to many. You would think that with Steelers losing that the Sports Books would have done well considering how everyone just saw them dismantle Denver on Monday night, but that wasn’t the case.

"The Bengals were the surprise flavor of the week," Kornegay said, "The general public was all over the Bengals."

The best decision of the day for the books came in the Saints-Rams game where just about every parlay in the city had the Saints on it.

"Our best game of the day was the Rams covering despite getting some wise-guy action on them," said Kornegay.

The Saints have now gone three straight games without covering after starting the season 6-0 ATS. Last week’s game with the Rams looked about as simple as it gets considering the 13.5-point spread was in the neighborhood of what it had been for the Saints with good teams like Atlanta and Carolina. Who knew that "The Lou’s" home crowd was so intimidating?

Another game the books did well with last week was the Chargers beating the Eagles 31-23 making it two straight wins over a stereotypical tough NFC East team.

"We did really well with the Chargers winning," said Kornegay. "We had been bet on the Eagles a few times throughout the week leading up to Sunday."

The early move on the Eagles came as somewhat of a surprise because of how poorly Philly did the last time traveling west when they lost to the Raiders, but it may have been more about the inconsistent nature of San Diego in recent years.

Jumbled NFL

Despite the dregs of the NFL lingering at the bottom with only one or two wins on the year, there are 22 teams with records of 4-5 or better that still have a legitimate shot at vying for the final 12 playoff positions with seven weeks to go in the season. Even a team like 3-6 Tennessee stands out as a possibility because of their recent three game win streak

Game Ball

Titans RB Chris Johnson had 132 yards rushing with 9 catches for 100 yards totaling two TD’s in their 41-17 blasting of Buffalo Sunday. It’s the first time since Billy Cannon back in 1963 that a player in franchise history has done the double-triple. Johnson is putting up MVP numbers and making a hungry Titans team (3-6) one that nobody wants to play down the stretch. Good Luck to Houston trying to stop Johnson this week.

Another Cancer WR Infects Dallas

Three weeks ago Roy Williams made comments about how the No. 2 WR on the team was getting better passes from Tony Romo which is why his numbers aren’t as good as the phenom, Miles Austin.

Romo shrugged it off in the same manner he did last year when Terrell Owens quipped that TE Jason Witten and Romo were conspiring secret plays behind his back.

Since the comments, Romo has tried to get Williams into the game more and in the process has made them worse by not giving Austin as many looks. Two weeks ago at Philly, Austin only had one catch, a big one for the game winning score. Last week at Green Bay, Romo again went to Williams and failed miserably with a key drop and a fumble, yet Romo kept going to him and bypassing the playmaking Austin.

Despite the loss, Williams was happy to have his first 100 yard game in 25 games and scored in the final seconds of a 17-7 loss, the first loss in November given to Romo in 13 games. Austin only had four catches for 20 yards. When Dallas took off after being a mediocre 2-2, it was Austin’s big plays that led the way to four straight wins with him scoring in each. If Dallas wants to really contend, less-Williams and a reclassification of who is No. 2 on the team looks to be the move.

Cocky Jets?

Just wondering if Jets DB Kerry Rhodes has something to say this week as his 4-5 Jets roll into New England in the aftermath of the Colts disaster. The week of their first meeting in week two, There was a lot of jaws flapping from the Jets side saying how they were going to do, and then they went out and beat the Pats. Somehow it seems like Coach Belichick isn’t too happy right now and is looking to take it out on someone and the Jets should give plenty of ammunition for Tom Brady’s loaded gun. Laying 10-points with the Patriots looks to have lots of venom at least when searching the cover in this revenge match.

AFC West Showdown

Ever since their week 6 Monday night encounter, the Broncos and Chargers have gone separate ways to the extreme. San Diego hasn’t lost since Denver’s win that night and the Broncos haven’t won making them tied for the division lead.

The Chargers have manned up and played everyone tough at home and on the road while Denver is reeling since their week 7 bye. The bye was the worst thing that could have happened to Denver who were feeding off the momentum.

Following the off-week, the traveled east to lose at Baltimore, went home to lose to Pittsburgh on a Monday night, and then flew back east on a short week to lose to Washington last week.

Because of the tailspin, the Broncos will again be an underdog. The winner of the game will be leading the division with six games to play until the playoffs. If Chris Simms is forced to play for the injured Kyle Orton as he did in the second half of the Redskins game, The Chargers could win by three touchdowns.

Watch every Tuesday for a brand new NFL Notebook article.

MIke T's Week 10 Picks: Two Favorites & One Outright Juicy Dog Win

by Mike T.

Things have been pretty, pretty, pretty good for me the last few weeks. For the second straight week I have gone 3-0. I'm also 8-1 in the last three weeks with the only loss being Miami against the Saints which still burns a little. That puts me at 18-9 for the season.

Last week I really liked the dogs as I thought the numbers were being over inflated and sure enough the dogs went 10-3. This week it appears that odds makers have readjusted the lines. This is the first week of the year that I am actually putting money on a favorite that is over 7 points (something I hate to do). Unlike last week I think we will see quite a few big favorites cover on Sunday.

Dolphins -9.5 vs Bucs
If you had the Bucs on the money line last week you were a genius. I sure a hell wish I had the balls to to make that bet. That said, the Bucs played their Superbowl last week getting six sacks, three picks, a blocked punt and a huge KO return against the Packers and their turn-style offensive line. And before anyone breaks out the anointing oil on Josh Freeman, he only completed 45% of his passes and is now about to play his first career road game against Miami. I expect the Fish to hold the ball for over 40 minutes and have 200+ yards on the ground.
Dolphins 28 Buccaneers 3

Chargers -1 vs Eagles
The Bolts are coming off a huge road win against the Giants and are now playing very inspired football. They have a very realistic shot at winning the AFC West, something most wouldn't have thought just a few weeks ago. Shawne Merriman and the the Chargers front seven got 5 sacks and two forced fumbles against a very good Giants offensive line. The Eagles have had line issues all year and now may be without LT Jason Peters(ankle). I think we'll see McNabb running for his life throughout the game which will probably result in a few turnovers.
Chargers 27 Eagles 17

Bengals +7 at Steelers
I've done very well taking the Bengals this year and as long as they are still getting 7 points I have to take them again. This game does look like a trap though, but it also looked like a trap last week as 3 point home dogs to the Ravens. The Bengals are 3-0 on the road and if they win they will be 5-0 in the AFC North and own all tie breakers. This should be a hard fought game with both teams looking to take sole possession of their division.
Who Dey?
Bengals 24 Steelers 21

Roberts Week 10 Pro Football Selections: Attractive Dogs Hard to Find This Week

Titans -7 vs. Bills: I love the way Vince Young has come in and lead the Titans with confidence and poise the last weeks getting their first two wins of the season. The Titans haven’t committed any turnovers and there is a renewed energy with the team that hasn’t been there since week vs. Pittsburgh. Look for Chris Johnson and the Titans to have a fairly easy time this week.

Saints -13.5 @ St. Louis: The last few weeks we’ve seen inflated lines with the Falcons and Panthers against the Saints; two good teams getting lots of points. Now we get the Rams only getting 13.5? Is it because of that rowdy crowd in the Lou? Come on, this is a bad team whoever they play and laying two touchdowns shouldn’t be that big of a deal against the Rams wherever they play.

Chargers -1 vs. Eagles: Chargers are playing excellent ball on both sides, especially the defense led by Shawn Merriman who has shown up the last four weeks. The last long trip the Eagles took to the west coast didn’t turn out well for them as they lost to the lowly Raiders. Phillip Rivers is on target with everything right now and will find a way to win.

Cowboys -3 @ Green Bay: It’s that time of the year, November, and Tony Romo doesn’t lose. He’s won 13 in a row in November and he’ll continue the trend this week led by a Dallas defense that is salivating at getting a chance to face the Packers weak offensive line that lets Aaron Rodgers get hammered every week. Since getting Miles Austin into the game plan, they have connected big every week leading to wins and it won’t stop this week.

Roberts College Football Plays Week 11: Lookout TCU & Florida, Tough Week Ahead

Utah +20 @ TCU: The biggest game of all this week with the most on the line. The bettors have bumped the Horned-Frogs from -17 to -20, but Utah will be ready for this game. This is basically the same Utah team that won 13-10 over TCU last season and are 4-1 in the last five seasons. Looks for Utah to play a close game and maybe pull off the upset.

South Carolina +17 vs. Florida: This is Florida’s last bump in the road in the way to go undefeated. Cocks Head Coach Steve Spurrier will have his team ready defensively and be able to slow down the Gator attack like just about everyone else has in SEC play. It’s the perfect spot for a slumping SC team to make one last push for themselves on the season; this is their title game and their Coach would love to see nothing better than a win like three years ago.

Other Plays This Week:
Nevada -7 vs. Fresno State
Notre Dame +7 @ Pittsburgh
USC -11 vs. Stanford
Houston -4.5 @ Central Florida
Ohio State -16 vs. Iowa
Mississippi -5 vs. Tennessee

College Football Notes: Bad SEC Officiating Affects Vegas Bettors

by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today Las Vegas

Best college football games attract the most action

Many of the big games last week had equally big moves led by the cash of some of the sharpest groups in town. Over the first nine weeks of the season, the majority of the line movements have been on middle of the pack ACC teams, MAC teams and an occasional Big West or Mountain West side.

Last week we saw the biggest of all the games such as LSU-Alabama and Ohio State-Penn State get played by the sharps. The big games always attract the most action from the public because of the pre-hype of radio, television, internet and even newspapers – if there are still any subscribers in the country.

Regular fans know the game is on TV and they have been talking point-counterpoint with their buddies all week and get pumped up enough to make a wager on the game, usually coming Friday or Saturday morning. The normal Sharp philosophy is to find the best games available regardless if it’s broadcast anywhere, using the value of their information in lesser known attractive teams and games to their advantage.

So witnessing Alabama drop from a 10-point favorite to 7 by kickoff came as somewhat of a surprise. The Penn State game moved from being a 3.5-point favorite to 5 by kickoff. In both instances they got beat, except for the short span that they got LSU with the 10 and 9.5. The majority of the money came after those moves.

In both instances, the public and sharps were on LSU and Penn State, meaning the book did very well by knocking off two of the most bet games of the day eliminating risk on future parlays for the remainder of the day.

Moves that didn’t get there for the Sharps last Week: Notre Dame losing outright to Navy, Wisconsin barely winning at Indiana and Michigan losing outright to Purdue.

Moves that won for the sharps last week: Michigan State clubbing Western Michigan, Louisville hanging tough with West Virginia, Arkansas hammering South Carolina and Baylor winning outright at Missouri.

Just by looking at the games they did well on and the games they didn’t, it gives an example of what they have been more successful at over the years picking the lines apart on the lower class teams and shying away from the bigger games.

However, it should serve well to note that in November with so much more data and tendencies accumulated through this length of the season, there can be a more accurate read of the higher profile teams.

SEC Officials At It Again

All season long the SEC officials have been ridiculed by the media, fans, and coaches for their lack of vision. The SEC even acknowledge their errors by suspending an entire crew after the Florida-Arkansas game, but last weeks error in the Alabama-LSU game cost a whole lot of bettors some money because it happened to mess with the spread.

With 5:54 left in the game and Alabama leading 21-15 – where the spread closed at Alabama -7 with nearly everyone having LSU – the Tigers appeared to intercept a Tide pass at the 31 yard line. After several reviews clearly showed both feet in-bounds, the officials said no catch and gave Alabama the ball and they went on to kick a field goal that just about killed everyone’s LSU bet making the score 24-15.

LSU may have been hard pressed to go 69 yards and get the win had they gotten the call their way. They had a back-up QB running the show who didn’t move the ball well upon coming in, but at least give the kids a chance based on what really happened on the field. What good is replay when even the official reviewing can’t see straight?

A few conspiracy theorists in the wagering public may think otherwise as they often suggest after bad beats, but this isn’t about any kind of point shaving or a question of scandal in those regards, it’s simply about making the right call which this conference has trouble with every week. Even Florida Head Coach Urban Meyer, who has been the beneficiary of several of these calls, got fined $30,000 two weeks ago for speaking out against the officials.

"The difficult issue that I have is telling my team," LSU Head Coach Les Miles said. "The issue is telling Patrick Peterson who, in his mind, knows that it’s an interception."

The only conspiracy theory that can be logically conjured up is the SEC’s greed to have two undefeated teams going into the SEC Championship game which ensures that at least one of their teams will play in the National Title game. With it comes big Title game money for the conference and all the schools.

The conference definitely has a problem and it’s likely to play out all this week in the media everywhere, a voice the SEC can’t just fine to shut-up. Just call the game fair and don’t do any rash anti-get-back calls like happened in the Big-10 last week with Iowa against Northwestern where it appeared the officials tried as hard as they could to be tough on Iowa for their own mishaps in previous Iowa games.

Boiler-Up!

A week after losing 37-0 at Wisconsin, Purdue went to Michigan and took out the Wolverines 38-36, their first win in the Big House since 1966 when Bob Griese was the quarterback. Not even Gary Danielson, Jim Everett, Drew Brees, or Kyle Orton could do it.

Joey Elliott was able to make the feat happen that no one else has in 43 years by throwing for 367 yards and two touchdowns, but how he did it is a matter of roots.

"He’s (Griese) an Evansville (Ind.) native, just like myself," Elliott said with a grin.

Purdue now sits 4-6 with a chance of making a bowl by winning out against Michigan State and Indiana. Regardless if they make it, 2009 will definitely be a memorable year just for upsetting The Ohio State University and winning at Michigan. With a couple of bounces their way at Oregon or Northwestern and maybe a few Protestant officials at Notre Dame, Purdue might be playing for one of the higher ranking bowls.

Stanford Goes Bowling

Toby Gerhardt ran for 223 yards and three scores to clinch Stanford’s 51-42 win over No. 7 ranked Oregon, a week after the Ducks had just knocked off USC. With the win, the Cardinal will be eligible for a bowl for the first time in eight seasons.

Mike T's Week 9 Picks: More Dogs Straight Up To Win

by Mike T.

It felt good to get back on the winning track last week. I had two dogs and a total get there for me putting me at 15-9 for the season.
There have been an unusual amount of big favorites covering in blowout fashion all year. This trend is not likely to continue throughout the entire season.I think things are starting to get back to normal where for the first time this season 4 teams that were 10+ point dogs covered last week. With six teams as a 9+ point favorite again this week I think it may be another good opportunity to take some of these over inflated numbers. I'm going with 3 more dogs this week.


Texans +9 at Colts

The hot and cold Texans come into Indy as a 9 point dog against the high powered Colts. Matt Schaub will not be facing CB Marlin Jackson or Bob Sanders as they are both out for the season. Ryan Moats is also getting the start after his 126 yd 3 TD game last week, while Steve Slaton will be on the bench figuring out how to cure his fumblitis. I expect this to be a high scoring game with the Texans winning if they can play two good halves of football.

Texans 34 Colts 28

Dolphins +10.5 at Patriots

Miami heads up to New England to take on their division rival. For the Fish to have any chance in this one they will have to play like they did in the first half against the mighty Saints. That is exactly what I expect them to do. The Pats D should see a heavy dose of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams while Tom Brady waits to get on the field. Should the Dolphins use this game plan I think they can not only cover but win the game outright.
Dolphins 27 Patriots 24

Bengals +3 vs Ravens

It seems a little odd to me that the Bengals (5-2) are home dogs in this one since they've already beaten the Ravens (4-3) on the road this year. I don't know what else they have to do to get the respect they deserve. Wins against GB and Balt on the road and a home win against Pittsburgh should be enough as well as coming off a 45-10 beating they put on Da Bears two weeks ago.The Bengals have had two weeks to prepare for their division rival and I believe they will be fired up to win this one and remain in first place in the AFC North by a half game until the Steelers play on Monday night.

Bengals 31 Ravens 17

College Football Notebook: Oregon Ducks Might Be Best Team in The Nation

by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today Las Vegas

USC is latest victim; is it Bama’s turn?

Sound the sirens, we have a possible upset alert in Tuscaloosa this week. No. 3 ranked Alabama welcomes No. 9 LSU this Saturday in what could be the Crimson Tide’s last major hurdle in an attempt to make the SEC Championship game undefeated to play Florida.

Every week, a top-10 team has fallen. Last week we said good-bye to USC. Could Alabama be that team this week? Of all the top-10 teams playing this week, Alabama would be the most logical choice.

LSU’s only loss of the season was against Florida and their offense has been much more impressive in their two wins since that loss. Two weeks ago they beat Auburn 31-10, a team who came back a week later and beat a ranked Ole Miss squad. Last week they had a tune-up against Tulane and won 42-0.

Alabama should be afraid. Not only is its hopes of a national title on the line, but if they lose to LSU, they won’t even get to play Florida for the SEC Title should LSU win out.

Alabama has four games remaining in the regular season, but has been struggling down the stretch. Their near loss to Tennessee two weeks ago was another unimpressive win that contributed to them dropping from No. 2 to third this week without even playing.

Should Alabama get by LSU, the rejuvenated Auburn Tigers may have something for them in the Iron Bowl played Thanksgiving weekend.

Taps for USC

USC no longer has to complain about playing in the Rose Bowl as they have in years past because their reign as Pac-10 Champs is over following Oregon’s 47-20 blasting of the Trojans Saturday night. It was USC’s worst defeat since 1997 and their first loss by more than seven since 2001, Pete Carroll’s first year as head coach.

What’s really surprising is that the public jumped off the wagon before it fell off the cliff. Las Vegas is usually a very pro-Trojan crowd that has generally bet them in big games during Carroll’s remarkable run. USC just doesn’t lose too many big games, but couldn’t find many takers Saturday, who all seemed to be correct.

"We couldn’t get any action on USC," said Lucky’s Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro. "Oregon was one of our bigger losers on Saturday."

Vaccaro said they even dropped the USC money line all the way to -125 because of little action on USC and most of the Oregon money coming in on the plus money straight-up side. Usually a 3-point favorite is anywhere from -150 to -160 on the conversion chart.

Holy Masoli

Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli threw for 222 yards and a touchdown and ran for 164 more and a TD in Ducks Fright Night trick-or-treat special over USC.

"I don’t know if we made a statement, this is just what we planned on doing," Masoli said. "If it makes a statement it makes a statement. That’s just Oregon football and how we roll."

It may be a little too late in the BCS rankings for No. 8 ranked Oregon to have a chance at the Title game, but since losing to Boise State in their first game of the season, not many have looked better than Oregon. Whoever wins the Big-10 can expect to be double-digit underdogs in the Rose Bowl to Oregon.

Books do well on Saturday

The monthly fall trend of casinos being able to rely on the Sports Book’s College Football win contributing to the overall scheme continued in week 9. The mix of action and indecisiveness of the small money players on the marquee games has kept them guessing all year. Teams like Florida, Texas and Alabama, who are on TV every week, are all undefeated and popular weekly plays, but have been the most unpredictable of all against the spread.

Middle of the Week

Many folks are skeptical about believing in No. 4 Iowa and it showed right away at the betting window last week when Iowa opened up an 18.5-point home favorite to Indiana. Why shouldn’t everyone question that many points? The Hawkeyes have only one convincing win all season which was in week 2 against Iowa State where they won by 32.

Every one of their seven other games this season had been won by 11 points or less. In their last four games they had barely hung on needing fantastic finishes to win, so it wasn’t surprising to see the first few large bets come in on Indiana taking the points.

The line settled at 17.5-points for all the weekend plays which is when most of the smaller money comes in, and in most cases, they like to play the favorites.

Indiana looked like they were not only going to cover, but get the straight-up win; they took a 21-7 half-time lead.

The Hoosiers still had the lead going into the fourth quarter at 24-14, and then the tidal wave came. Iowa made big play after big play for a 28-0 run to close out the game giving Iowa a 42-24 win with a margin of 18 points, right in the middle of where the move went, meaning the books got beat on both sides of the spectrum. Sharp money won with the early wagers and the small money won with their weekend wagers.

Moves of the Week

Mississippi opened a 3-point road favorite at Auburn and by kickoff the game had moved to 6-points. Auburn ended up winning the game outright 33-20.

No surprise to find a MAC game getting early movement, which it did Monday when the Toledo/Western Michigan matchup came out at Pick and because of who bet it, was quickly bumped to -2 and then -2.5 where it closed. Toledo cruised to an easy 26-14 win over Western Michigan.

Penn State was one of the moves that happened later in the week. They opened a 14.5-point favorite and was bet small early and finally closed at 17. Northwestern gave them a battle for the three quarters but couldn’t hang on, giving up the possible win and cover, losing 34-13.

Watch every Tuesday for a brand new College Notebook article.

Mike T's Week 8 Picks: 49ers, Dolphins & Balt-Den Under

by Mike T.

If not for a 2nd half meltdown by the Dolphins I would have had a perfect week. I still can't understand why a team that runs the ball so well changed their game plan at halftime and appeared to want to get in a shoot out with the Saints. Had they stuck with the 1st half plan Miami would have won big. I'm now 12-9 after going 2-1 last week. I'm going with 2 dogs and a total this week.

Dolphins +3.5 @ Jets

I expect to see the Dolphins rebound after a heartbreaking loss to the Saints last week. The Jets have 11 guys listed on their injury report with only 5 of them probable while the Fish are practically injury free at this point. I could see a lower scoring more ball control game from both teams than we did the first time these two teams met(31-27 Mia). The difference in this one may a few Ints by Sanchez
Dolphins 21 Jets 14

49ers +13 @ Colts
It's hard to come up with a reason why I think the Niners have a chance in this one but I think they do. Aside from the line being off by a few points I think the Colts may start out a little flat and will have to work their way back into this game. We will probably see a heavy dose of Frank Gore while trying to keep the high powered Colts offense off the field. The Colts will try to rally from behind to pull off the win which is likely but I think the Niners hang on to win a close one.
49ers 24 Colts 23

Broncos +3.5 @ Ravens (41.5 total)

This is a good test for both of these teams.The Broncos have been quite a surprise this year. They are playing great defense and mistake free offense. The Ravens have lost 3 in a row including a disappointing loss at the Vikes two weeks ago. Both teams are coming off a bye so they've had plenty of time to prepare for this one. This is one of a few games that I don't want to miss. I expect to see a low scoring great defensive game with the Ravens handing Denver their first loss.
Ravens 16 Broncos 10

Sports Books Get Hit Harder than Ever in Week 7 Pro Football Action

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Nevada Sports bettors got a major stimulus package on Sunday, and the giving party to the program was the sportsbooks. If you didn’t win betting pro football last week, it’s likely you didn’t bet.

Sunday was the toughest of all seven weeks this season for Nevada Sports Books and quite possibly -- after all the figures are in -- will rank as one of the worst ever. All the big favorites covered, all the big public games covered, and every lucky break, bounce, tip, and calls went to the bettor.

When the favorites go 8-2-1 in the first 11 games, it’s never a good equation for the books because the public always bets the favorites. In the only three games that didn’t cover, no one cared as the Bills and Texans games were two of the least bet games of the week, both in wagers and ticket counts. Plus, the Bears closed as one-point road favorites but a lot of books had the Bengals listed at pick 'em just before kickoff.

No matter what side they had in the Texans (-3) 23-20 win over the 49ers, straight bets were returned, and parlays were just reduced because of the tie, which in most cases can be worse because it keeps every parlay bet on that game alive going into the others. A push on a day like Sunday would have gladly been traded for any decision on the game just to cut the larger picture risk.

The straights bets aren’t what hurt the books Sunday. A book can make up the difference of losing a couple straight bets from -110 juice and volume from all other wagers on all typical Sunday What a book can’t make up is the parlays when every side goes the public way. When the betting masses hit payouts of 6/1, 11/1, 20/1, 40/1, and higher, the book can’t make it up over the course of a day, and in Sunday’s case, maybe an entire month.

During the week there weren’t that many line movements on the sides, but the one that the Sharps and Public both agreed on was the Steelers. Generally when the Sharps do well, so do the books and the Public lose.

The Steelers were bet from an opener of -4 to -6. The course of the game seemed to indicate the Vikings may be able to stay close or pull off an upset as it was 13-10 Steelers heading into the fourth quarter, but then that’s when the crazy stuff happened.

After the Steelers returned a fumble for a TD that looked to be the cover, crowds at the sportsbooks roared as the Steelers were back up by 10. Before the bettors could stop high-fiving each other with approval, the Vikings’ Percy Harvin ran the ensuing kickoff back for TD.

Just as the public was beginning to rip up their morning game 5-teamers, Brett Favre was intercepted and the Steelers took it 77 yards for a TD, bumping the final margin to 10 much to delight of everyone, except those behind the counter.

That 10-point (27-17) winning margin by the Steelers was the second lowest of the early Sunday games. Of those 11 games, only one game was won by less than 10 points and that was the aforementioned Houston push, which helped no one.

There were only two games that were double-digit favorites and they were covering before half-time. All the dreggs of the NFL resurfaced again a week after believing that maybe the tide had turned. The leaders of the pack were the Raiders, Buccaneers, Browns, Chiefs, and Rams, all of whom didn’t cover, again, and were bet against as a group.

As crazy as the Steelers game ended, nothing compares to what happened in the Saints-Dolphins game. The six-point underdog Dolphins jumped out a 24-3 lead and there was a sigh of relief from some of the books after getting pounded in the six early games. The biggest risk of the day for the books, after the early results were posted, was the Saints -- a favorite wager of the public who had gone 5-0 against the spread this season.

Following half-time, the Saints systematically broke down a tired, weak Dolphins team in the second half outscoring them 36-10. The books would have even settled for a push at one juncture, getting at least some luck when the Saints missed an extra point and ultimately kept the game as a possible push with the Saints ahead by 6. Early game pushes like the Texans game are no good, but at that juncture of the day it’s much better paying off a parlay of 20/1 than 40/1.

With 1:53 remaining in the game, the final nail in the coffin was hammered into the sportsbooks day when the Saints intercepted a Dolphins pass for a touchdown making the score 46-34. There was a tense moment at the end when Miami had a chance to get the back-door cover, but the final drive stalled at the Saints 5-yard line.

With the Saints posting up another 40-something on the board, it was the fourth time in the six games they have covered and scored that many points. Is there any wonder why the public has this team included in every one their betting options?

At the end of the day, there was some relief when the late game had the 7-point favored Giants losing (17-24) outright to the Cardinals giving the G-men their second straight loss.

Another bonus to the overall bottom line, which could mask the severity of the day, was the books posting the futures of pro baseball’s American League winners. The N.Y. Yankees win helped the strip properties much more than the local properties because of the overall tourist traffic throughout the year. When one of the favorites wins on futures, it’s always a good hold for the books.

Next week there are six games favored over a touchdown with the high being the Raiders getting 16 at San Diego. After this week, if there was ever a time to attempt to make a case for the dogs, there is surely to be value with several of them in the extreme over-reaction to the lines we see.

College Football Notebook: Ducks & Trojans Clash

College Notebook by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today Las Vegas

Only one top-10 team was upset in week eight with Miami falling in overtime to Clemson, 40-37, but there were nearly a couple of giant take downs that would have really shaken things up in the BCS rankings.

Alabama needed a blocked 44-yard field goal with seconds left to preserve a tough fought 12-10 victory over Monte Kiffin’s attacking Tennessee defense, keeping the dream 1-2 match-up in the SEC Championship game alive.

Iowa scored a touchdown with one second left at Michigan State to secure a 15-13 win and remain unbeaten and in control of their own destiny for the Big-10 title and a possible chance at the BCS Title game.

This week’s games could present a real shake up for some of the top teams on the road, most notably USC and Texas.

Oregon and the offense run by QB Jeremiah Masoli welcome the Trojans Saturday night and will give USC all they can handle. Last week against Oregon State, USC’s stingy defense gave up a season high 36 points and 482 yards, something that Oregon should find encouraging in their Rose Bowl quest.

Oregon is 4-0 in conference play and has looked like one of the best teams in the country this season following their season opening loss to Boise State.

Texas visits Stillwater for a battle against a regrouped Oklahoma State team that will present Texas with their toughest hurdle among their final five games. Should Texas get by this week, their plan of making the BCS Title game becomes all the more easier.

Nevada Crystal Ball

 Since starting the season 0-3, Nevada has won four straight and in each of those wins the sharp bettors have been dialed in to how they’ll perform. In every instance since the Wolf Pack’s last loss, the opening spread has moved 2 whole points or more by kickoff.

Two weeks ago at Utah State, the move was against Nevada who opened -9 and closed at -7, barely winning 35-32. On the three other occasions, the moves have all been massive onslaughts siding with Nevada, including last week’s 70-45 pounding of then one-loss Idaho. The game opened -13 and closed at -17.

Next up for the Pack this week is a visit by Hawaii. It might be a good idea to watch which way the opener moves and follow the sharp who has a really good read on this team right now.

Move of the Week

The sharpest of all the betting sharps in the world made a huge push on Oregon last week at Washington, laying the opener of Oregon -6.5 and betting all the way up the ladder to -10 with early action on Monday and Tuesday. By kickoff there had been some buy back on Washington at +10 and most books closed the game at 9 or 9.5.

The move seemed peculiar just because of how well Washington had played at home all season going 4-0 ATS, including big wins against top ranked USC and a ranked Arizona. Couple that with the big look ahead game Oregon had with USC in Eugene and it seemed like a good spot for the Huskies.

But that is why this particular sharp is who he is; he sees match-ups beyond what we all see. Oregon rolled 43-19 making Washington look more like last season’s winless squad rather than the competitive team they had been this year.

Middle of the Week

Purdue opened a 10-point favorite over Illinois. By Thursday, a little Illini money had come in dropping the game to -9.5. By kickoff the game had been pushed up to -10.5 and of course the game landed on 10 with Purdue winning 24-14.

In a similar, but not entirely same instance, Ball State opened -3 at Eastern Michigan. Dog money came in early dropping the game to -2 where most of the action was taken up till kickoff when it moved to 2.5 with more favorite money. Of course it lands on 2 with Ball State winning 29-27 and the sports books giving back most of the money on pushes and lose the early bets.

Yo-Yo Move of the Week

UNLV opened a 3-point favorite at New Mexico and the Lobos money came in at about the same time and rate of the Oregon moves pushing New Mexico to a -1.5 favorite. By kickoff, the Rebels were pushed back to a -1.5 favorite. The end result was that the opener was the proper line as UNLV won their first road game of the season 34-17 giving Rebels Head Coach Mike Sanford a career road mark of 8-17 ATS.

No Love for the Super-Frosh?

It’s surprising not to hear many in the media talking about the remarkable exploits of Pitt’s freshman tailback Dion Lewis who had his fifth 100-yard rushing game of the year last week in their 41-14 win against South Florida. The 111-yards pushed him over the 1,000-yard mark for the season and his two touchdowns gave him 11 with four games remaining.

His name hasn’t been mentioned for the Heisman, even though he has more yards and TD’s than everyone’s favorite, Mark Ingram of Alabama. Part of the criteria of being a Heisman candidate, beyond numbers, is a player’s contribution to the team’s success.

Ingram has definitely been the key to Alabama’s undefeated run, but Lewis has also been just as valuable. Consider that Pitt is 7-1, undefeated in the Big East, and is off to their best start since 1982, Dan Marino’s senior year.

Behind Ingram in most of the expert opinions are the nationally televised favorites of Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy and Jimmy Clausen. Popularity and coverage look to be what this award is about based on those candidates.

Roberts Week 7 Pro Football Plays: Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Miami

Week 7 Pro Football

Panthers -7 vs. Buffalo: DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart got the Panthers running rejuvenated last week against Tampa Bay when each ran for over 100 yards and they get a chance to face the Bills run defense that got chewed up by the Jets last week for 318 yards.

Through the first four games of the season the Panthers had gone overboard with Jake Delhomme and the passing game trying to get Steve Smith the ball with no success. Last week the run-pass ratio was 48 to 17 in favor of the run and they got a win. Seems like a good winning strategy to continue. Look for the Panthers to keep that winning formula going this week.

Steelers -5.5 vs. Steelers: To give a little back ground of how tough this game may be for the Vikings, consider that only one dome team has won at Pittsburgh since 2004 and that the Steelers haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 28 straight games, home and away.

Further past evidence of possible struggles by the Vikings this week lie with the fact that they’re coming off a win against the Ravens. Since 2004, only the 2005 Bengals (among 13 occurrences) have won back to back games in consecutive weeks against the Steelers and Ravens.

This is obviously a different Vikings team and have shown they are one of the best in the league. The Ravens have been one of the top run defenses in the league forever and are allowing 91 rushing yards per game this year, but Peterson didn’t seem to have any problems going for 143 yards.

On two occasions this season, week 3 and 4, Peterson has been held in check. Steelers legendary defensive guru Dick Lebeau will have a big target on Peterson this week as the focal point to beating the Vikings and a healthy Troy Polamalu should help in executing that game plan.

As for Brett Favre, he’s only faced the Steelers four times in his career (2-2), including his first NFL start, and lost in his only game at Pittsburgh. This will be his second game of the year outdoors with his first coming in week one at Cleveland when he wasn’t so orientated with the offense yet.

Dolphins +6 vs. Saints: It hasn’t been a good idea to bet against the Saints this season, and if you have in every game, you’ve lost all five games. But this week presents a good spot for an upset based on the Dolphins running game being able to run the bal, kill the clock, and keep the Saints high powered offense off the field.

The Dolphins new QB, Chad Henne, looks as poised and confident as ever showing why he was the only four year starting quarterback in Michigan history. The Dolphins defense at home should be able to put some pressure on Brees and force him to make some errors, something that no one has been able to do with any consistency this season. It should be a close game!

Roberts College Football Plays: Huskies, Rebels, & Haweyes

Week 8 College Football Plays

Washington +10 vs. Oregon - This game opened up Oregon -6 and was quickly bet up to -10 by the sharpest player in Las Vegas. It’s usually not wise to go against that type of play, but I liked Washington from the start on the basis of their home wins alone against ranked opponents like USC and Arizona, along with a near upset opening week vs. LSU.

Oregon has their high-octane QB Jeremiah Masoli back this week and they’re coming off a bye, but the combination of Washington’s fired up crowd, Jake Locker making big plays, and Oregon looking ahead to their big game in Eugene next week against USC makes this a great spot for Washington.

This also is worth a poke at taking the money line for a portion of the allotted wager.

UNLV pk @ New Mexico: UNLV has been winless on the road forever and are 0-2 this season. The Rebels just got pounded back to back weeks at home by the ranked team of BYU and Utah. Coach Mike Sanford is 7-17 in his career against the spread as a road team.

It doesn’t sound like the Rebels could beat anyone in any instance, does it?

Almost, but the one instance they should win on the road comes this week against the New Mexico Lobos who are 0-6 this season. A hungry team is tough to play, especially when you have your own issues, but sometimes really bad is just bad.

Iowa pk @ Michigan State - Everyone is so weary of taking a chance on Iowa as they head towards the BIG-10 title. This is the last real hurdle for the Hawkeyes before their final test in Columbus against the struggling Buckeyes.

Last week everyone was betting against Iowa at Wisconsin and it was the wrong choice. This week it’s been the same type of pattern and should see similar results. The bet-against game will be in Columbus for all the marbles when Ohio State will be devalued and Iowa is then over-valued.

College Football Notebook: Alabama Looking Like the Real No. 1

College Notebook by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

Like cream, Alabama rises to top

After coming on strong the last few weeks, while Florida struggled, Alabama has become the AP poll number one team. Two weeks ago, Alabama received 10 of the first place votes. Following Saturday’s games, they received 39 of the 59 votes on the basis of their impressive win over respected South Carolina.

Florida has struggled the last few weeks and their lack of impressive wins while being favored large weighed in on the voters. In Florida’s four SEC wins, they have won by an average of only 14 points with the margin helped significantly by a 34-point win over Kentucky. They had 10-point wins over Tennessee and LSU before needing a last second field-goal to beat Arkansas in Gainesville when favored by 26.

At the same time Alabama has won by an average margin of 19 points a game in SEC play with their lowest margin coming last week with a 14-point win over ranked South Carolina as 18-point favorites.

Tumbling in the polls were Virginia Tech and Ohio State who virtually said good-bye to any hopes they had of playing for the BCS Title.

Virginia Tech was starting get a lot of respect with the voters because of their consistent defense and special teams play every week, but a loss to a good Georgia Tech team dropped them from fourth all the way to No. 15.

The Buckeyes fell from seventh to No. 18 after getting routed in West Lafayette by Purdue who was 1-5 coming into the game. Their loss opens the door for an undefeated Iowa team to be the Big-10’s only legitimate campaigner for a title shot.

Iowa is currently No. 7, but could conceivably pass both Cincinnati and Boise State based on strength of schedule with impressive road wins at Michigan State and Ohio State before the season is over. They’ll need help along the way from one of the many tough opponents Texas still has to play and hope that USC falls at Oregon in two weeks.

No. 3 Texas looked almost as raggedy against Oklahoma as they did against Colorado two weeks ago, but then again, maybe the Buffs are coming around after upsetting undefeated No. 17 Kansas.

USC looks to be the best team in the Nation right now, and the voters apparently agree somewhat as they bumped the Trojans to the No. 4 slot. The team getting the worst of it in all the rankings is Boise State who once again got passed despite winning their game.

Purdue Exposes Ohio State and Tressel

Ohio State Head Coach Jim Tressel lived up to his billing as a conservative play caller by bringing out the field goal out on a fourth and goal at the two yard line early in the fourth quarter when the 13-point favored Buckeyes were down 23-7, showing once again that Tressel can’t make the right call in a big game.

The entire nation watched as Tressel let the season slide away with similar calls in the USC game and his final move last Saturday let all know that Ohio State is officially out of the running for any kind of Championship run.

If you’ve got a Championship offensive line, with a Championship attitude, fourth and goal should present no problem at all in the calculations of what to do.

Buckeye-land isn’t too happy at the moment and the fact that the this team with expectations of titles is lingering where they are with two losses isn’t sitting well. Knowing that they have the base of this team for two more years led by quarterback Terrelle Pryor doesn’t ease the restlessness.

The Public was on the Buckeyes once again, but larger money did come on Purdue pushing the opening line of -13 to -12 by kickoff.

Easy Move of the Week

The TCU Horned Frogs were early 20-point favorites over Colorado State in Mountain West action and the line quickly jumped to 24-points by kick-off. TCU rolled with a 44-6 win and fortunately for the books this game happened early rather than late like many of the Mountain West games because the entire public would have been on the game. Because the game was early, it only attracted most of the action from sharp players on straight bets.

Text of the Week

Former Purdue quarterback Drew Brees had a simple message for current Boilermakers signal caller Joe Elliott.

"Drew Brees texted me last night (Friday) and said: ‘Hey, go out there and shock the world, have fun. I’ll be watching.’"

Elliott did as he was told and led Purdue to its biggest upset in years. He threw for 281 yards and two touchdowns, and the Boilermakers stunned No. 7 Ohio State 26-18.

So Cal Prep Battle

In 2006 Oaks Christian Quarterback Jimmy Clausen was the highest No. 1 rated QB to come out of high school since John Elway. He turned down a scholarship to play at nearby USC and signed with Notre Dame.

In 2008, the No. 1 rated Prep QB was Mater Dei’s Matt Barkley. USC didn’t lose this one though, because they signed him just after his high school sophomore year at about the same time Clausen turned down USC.

The two met Saturday under the Golden Dome in a good football game displaying both of their skills and what made them so highly rated. Pete Carroll let Barkley loose for the first time this season and he responded with 380 yards and two TD passes in USC’s 34-27 win. Clausen passed for 281 yards and two TD’s in the loss.

NFL Notebook: Bad Teams Make For a Great Weekend in Books

NFL Notebook by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today

It doesn’t get any better for the sports books than week six of NFL action. In a climate that has seen the big favorites cover week after week, the swing back to underdogs finally happened with some of the worst teams in football coming up big on Sunday.

"We had a pretty good day," said MGM MIRAGE Director of Race and Sports Jay Rood. "One of our biggest games of the day was when the Chiefs beat the Redskins straight up."

The Redskins loss to the Chiefs a -6½-point favorite was one of many upsets on the day that included a 14-point dog, and a 10-point dog all getting beat straight-up.

When upsets occur in the fashion they did Sunday, the book does extremely well on all types of bets beyond the standard point spread. Between teasers being eliminated and chalk money line plays going down the drain, there is nothing better than the big upset.

On Sunday, there were quite a few. Overall there were five straight-up underdog winners on a day when the favorites went a combined 5-8 against the spread.

The biggest upset of the day occurred when the 14-point underdog Raiders beat the Eagles 13-9 and the 10-point favored Jets lost 16-13 to the Bills. Beyond the upsets, the teams that won but didn’t cover really helped the books.

"Two of our biggest parlay games of the day were Pittsburgh and Green Bay," Rood said. "When Cleveland covered, it wiped out a lot of our extended parlay risk."

The biggest loss of the day for MGM-MIRAGE happened in a game that might appear to have little interest.

"We got a lot of game day money on Houston +5," said Rood after the Texans had upset the Bengals 28-17.

The Bengals had opened as a -3½-point favorite and had been bet up to -5½ at some places through the week, but the trend on Sunday was the Texans.

The Falcons game was not a good decision to close out the day for the books. What limited parlay build-up they had through the day all came to cash when the Falcons beat the Bears 21-14, covering the spread that opened -3 and closed -4 by kickoff.

Saints are Marching!

We’ve all be waiting for the Saints’ stereotype of being soft on each side of the line, but so far it hasn’t happened. The Saints have gone up against two of the NFL’s toughest lines, once at Philadelphia and last week with the Giants, and slapped a 48-spot on each of them.

Could it be that the Saints really are that good? Safe to say, yes, they are very good. How long it lasts will be seen. Good teams come and go in phases throughout the year. It’s a long season with lots of trends, but to give a team like the Giants, one that was perceived as being among the best teams in football, a complete non-stop pounding for 48 points in 48 minutes is a pretty impressive feat.

The remainder of the Saints’ schedule is very favorable and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them make a run at 16-0. Their toughest road game will be in Atlanta on Dec. 13 and their toughest games at the Superdome, where they look invincible, are the Patriots, Cowboys and Falcons again.

By already having defeated two of the top teams in the NFC, it’s looking like their road to the Super Bowl could be very smooth for the Saints. Bettors and fans everywhere have fallen in love with the team because they cover the spread every week. Bookmakers can’t make the line high enough, and if it was hard attracting money on the Giants, how does anyone presume on getting action with anyone else?

Following the win over the Giants on Sunday, the Saints had been dropped to 4-to-1 favorites to win the Super Bowl and 2-to-1 to win the NFC.

Total Move of the Week

With news of possible bad weather in the New England area, the initial total of 43½ in the Titans-Patriots game dropped quickly to 40 on Friday and by game day closed at 38. Most of the moves were adjustments by the books based on the forecast rather than a huge money move. Those that did get their bets in on the sliding under were finished by halftime as the Patriots put up 45 points en route to the Patriots 59-0 win.

Haven for the Winless

For the sixth consecutive week the Washington Redskins played a winless team and for the fourth time, they gave their opponent their first win of the season. Four weeks ago the Redskins let the Lions into the win column for the first time since 2007. Two weeks ago they gave the Panthers their first and then last week allowed the Chiefs to join the party.

The only winless teams remaining are the Titans, Buccaneers and Rams. To give the Redskins a little credit, they did beat both the Rams and the Bucs for their only two wins of the season. It gets a lot tougher for the Skins from here on out. They play the Eagles and Cowboys a few times, along with the Giants, Saints, Broncos, Chargers and Falcons. Things could get a lot worse for Jim Zorn’s squad before they get better.

Jets Flying Low

Rex Ryan and the New York Jets came out firing on the season with lots of brash talk and confidence and started out 3-0 with expectations of grandeur. They called out the New England Patriots on all fronts and came through much to the delight of the New York media and fans. Since that high point of beating the Patriots, the Jets have fallen on tough times by losing their last three, including last week’s embarrassing loss to the Bills in which rookie Mark Sanchez looked like a rookie throwing five interceptions.

Game Ball

All questions about Tom Brady should have been answered with his efforts in the snow against the Titans Sunday. In one quarter alone, he set an NFL record with 5 TD passes as the Patriots took a 45-0 lead into the half. He came out for one series in the second half and threw his sixth TD making him easily the player of the week.

Mike T's Week 6 Picks Ridin' High

by Mike T

I had a good week 5 going 3-0 and putting me at 9-6 for the season. I was able to get back to my usual strategy by taking some dogs. That's where I feel most comfortable. My Ridin' High title really has multiple meanings this week. First, I'm excited about going to New Orleans this weekend to see perhaps one of the biggest games of this early season. Second is that we may possibly see a few of the undefeated teams get their first loss. So i guess I'll just start with the game of the week.

Giants +3 @ Saints
The 4-0 Saints have the 5-0 Giants coming into the Big Easy. This is by far the toughest test for each of these teams this year. We can talk all day about the talent on both sides of the ball of these fine squads. They can both kill you with the run or the pass and defensively they can shut you down and create turnovers. However, there are a few things that stick out to me as far as this game goes. The loss of Saints LT Jamaal Brown hasn't hurt them as much as some would think as Jermon Bushrod has played well in his absence. He's still nursing an ankle injury though and he'll be lined up against Osi Umenyiora on Sunday and should see a few blitz packages come from Brees' blind side. For the first time since week one Dominick Hixon will be returning kick offs while unimpressive Sinorice Moss sits the bench. Hixon is always a threat to "take one to the house". A small advantage like this could be the difference in the game. The Giants are also 18-3 in their last 21 road games. Eli is also playing his first game in his hometown while Archie and Peyton will be there to root him on. I'm taking the G-Men.
Giants 35 Saints 31

Ravens +3 @ Vikings

This may sound crazy but if the Vikes bring the same game they brought last week against this Ravens team they will lose badly. They may have won 38-10 against the Rams but if you watched the game it told a much different story. The Rams actually had more first downs, more yards, more time of possession and unfortunately for them a lot more turnovers. The Rams fumbled three times in the redzone and threw a pick as well. They also had seven costly penalties for 82 yards. A good team would have beaten the high ridin' Vikings. With some early money coming in on the Vikes, the Ravens may be just the team to end their 5-0 start. I expect the Ravens to hit this team in the mouth early and often and not look back. I can also see Favre throwing a couple ints to Ed Reed and co. as they will be trying to play catch up.
Ravens 27 Vikings 17

Chargers -3.5 vs Broncos

The Broncos are another high ridin' team that has to come back down to earth at some point. I loved the Broncs last week, this week not so much. This is the first week of the season where Denver is getting the early money. The 2-2 Chargers are practically in a must win situation or they will find themselves down three games and a home division loss to the Broncos. The Broncos will give up more points than have all year so far and I expect Klye Orton to struggle a little more in this game than he has this year. The SD corners should be able to contain Marshall and Royal and win this one fairly easily.
Chargers 24 Broncos 10

Roberts College Football Selections: Red River Rivalry Controlled By Texas

Texas (5-0) -3 vs. Oklahoma (3-2): The Longhorns have won three of the four in this series covering all four games. The three wins Texas has over that span have all been by double digits. The Sooners are playing strictly for pride at this point while Texas is playing for a position in the BCS Championship game. Much more at stake here for Texas.

Texas hasn’t run the ball well this year and they’ll need a better performance then they had last week against lowly Colorado. Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley should have enough offensive firepower to outscore a Sooner team still not in sync with Sam Bradford.

Notre Dame (4-1) +10 vs. USC (4-1): It’s never a good idea to bet against the Trojans but this looks like a nice spot for Notre Dame to pull off a possible upset. Notre Dame has lost seven straight to USC and six of the losses were by double digits. The last two meetings, Notre Dame got clubbed a combined 76-3.

The reason Notre Dame should do well this game rests with QB Jimmy Clausen who can move the ball effectively against anyone. He’s averaging over 300 yards per game passing with 12 TD’s. USC will be piloted by a more comfortable Matt Barkley, but he’ll be forced to throw more in this game which Pete Carroll would like to avoid. The home crowd will play a huge role in this game and rattle the freshman late.

Florida (5-0) -26 vs. Arkansas (3-2): The Razorbacks have a great offense averaging 451 yards and 37 points per game. They’ll be heavily tested this week against the great Gators defense that is allowing only 6.4 points and 202 yards per game. Florida will score in all areas of offense, defense, and special teams making the cover easy in this game. The Gators are 11-3 in their last 14 games at home against the spread.

Iowa (6-0) +3 @ Wisconsin (5-1): In a similar situation last season, Wisconsin was undefeated, lost to Ohio State and then got blown away by Iowa 38-16. This year, it’s the same thing as a deflated Badger team gets their first loss of the season and welcomes Iowa. Iowa has won 5 of the last seven meetings in this series and has their hopes set in running the Big-10 table and getting a shot at the BCS Title game. Look for an inspired Iowa performance this week and play the money line.