Saturday, November 14, 2009

MIke T's Week 10 Picks: Two Favorites & One Outright Juicy Dog Win

by Mike T.

Things have been pretty, pretty, pretty good for me the last few weeks. For the second straight week I have gone 3-0. I'm also 8-1 in the last three weeks with the only loss being Miami against the Saints which still burns a little. That puts me at 18-9 for the season.

Last week I really liked the dogs as I thought the numbers were being over inflated and sure enough the dogs went 10-3. This week it appears that odds makers have readjusted the lines. This is the first week of the year that I am actually putting money on a favorite that is over 7 points (something I hate to do). Unlike last week I think we will see quite a few big favorites cover on Sunday.

Dolphins -9.5 vs Bucs
If you had the Bucs on the money line last week you were a genius. I sure a hell wish I had the balls to to make that bet. That said, the Bucs played their Superbowl last week getting six sacks, three picks, a blocked punt and a huge KO return against the Packers and their turn-style offensive line. And before anyone breaks out the anointing oil on Josh Freeman, he only completed 45% of his passes and is now about to play his first career road game against Miami. I expect the Fish to hold the ball for over 40 minutes and have 200+ yards on the ground.
Dolphins 28 Buccaneers 3

Chargers -1 vs Eagles
The Bolts are coming off a huge road win against the Giants and are now playing very inspired football. They have a very realistic shot at winning the AFC West, something most wouldn't have thought just a few weeks ago. Shawne Merriman and the the Chargers front seven got 5 sacks and two forced fumbles against a very good Giants offensive line. The Eagles have had line issues all year and now may be without LT Jason Peters(ankle). I think we'll see McNabb running for his life throughout the game which will probably result in a few turnovers.
Chargers 27 Eagles 17

Bengals +7 at Steelers
I've done very well taking the Bengals this year and as long as they are still getting 7 points I have to take them again. This game does look like a trap though, but it also looked like a trap last week as 3 point home dogs to the Ravens. The Bengals are 3-0 on the road and if they win they will be 5-0 in the AFC North and own all tie breakers. This should be a hard fought game with both teams looking to take sole possession of their division.
Who Dey?
Bengals 24 Steelers 21